♪ >> this is al jazeera. students army chief has appointed a new ruling council led by himself weeks after the military seized power. the new 14 member council excludes members of sudan's main opposition coalition. it has drawn condemnation from the u.n., which says sudan has been put further away from returning to constitutional order. >> taking a look at these developments, i would say they are very concerning. we want to see a return to the

transition as quickly as possible. we want to see the release from house arrest of prime minister handoff and all other politicians and leaders that have been detained. >> thousands of refugees trying to cross into the european union remain trapped on the border between pella roots and poland pit -- between belarus and poland. the you is threatening new sanctions. belarus says it will retaliate by cutting off gas supplies to europe. the un security council has met to address the border crisis. western countries including the u.s. and u.k. say belarus is trying to destabilize its neighbors. >> the belarusian authorities should understand that putting pressure on the european union in this way through a cynical instrumentalization of migrants will not succeed.

>> the u.n. secretary general has urged delegates at the climate summit to agree on a way forward. antonio guterres says efforts to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees is on life-support. while discussions have failed to meet the u.n.'s goals, he told attendees he remains hopeful. the news continues here after inside story. ♪ >> a u.s. delegation visits taiwan a week after a tour of e.u. politicians triggered fury

in china. what is behind the increasing interest from the west and how far will they go to defend the island? this is inside story. ♪ hello and welcome to the show. time one's status -- taiwan's status is a politically sensitive issue. the island has its own president, democratically elected government and a strong economy. beijing regards it as a breakaway province must be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary. it has -- it condemns the u.s. and e.u. for what it calls provocative visits to the island. a u.s. congressional delegation landed on taipei in tuesday -- landed in taipei on tuesday. if l is the first official tour

from e.u. legislators that praise taiwan. china's foreign affairs ministry accuse the u.s. and e.u. of collaborating with independents forces. president changing pain warned against what he calls a return to cold war era divisions. >> attempts to draw ideological lines on geopolitical grounds will fail. the asia-pacific should not relapse into the division of the cold war era. >> only 15 countries who recognize taiwan as an independent nation. the u.s. and the e.u. are not among them however they do maintain a relationship of strategic ambiguity. the u.s. has a military presence in taiwan. tensions between beijing and taiwan are on the rise. china's air force sent a record number of warplanes into the air defense own last month. china is the you's largest -- the e.u.'s largest trading

partner. taiwan is one of the biggest technology producers. it supplies many components for the latest smartphones. >> let's bring our guests into the show. we have joining us from taipei a writer and founder of a magazine. in south korea, effexor of political science and diplomacy and in beijing, the chair and professor at a university. what message is being sent to china by the congressional visit to taiwan? >> this congressional visit to taiwan by the u.s. members of congress is a serious violation of the one china policy.

china will take measures accordingly. china has already announced a series of sanctions against three members who promote taiwan independence and i think all these members of congress from the united states will be put under sanction list. it will be banned from entering china's mainland, china's hong kong, china's macau and they and their three members will be banned from doing any business with china's mainland hong kong and macau. i think this sends a strong message that china does not tolerate any such provocation, any attempt to promote one china, one taiwan or taiwan independence. this is a line drawn in the sand and no political force in taiwan will ever be successful in achieving taiwan independence. because history does not allow that. the 1.4 billion chinese people

does not allow that. that number of chinese people includes the majority of the 23 million people on taiwan. this is the reality. i hope u.s. politicians will be pragmatic. they should not bet on taiwan independence at all. >> is the u.s. and china heading toward a cold war? >> i don't think so. the cold war is against the fundamental interest of the united states. it is against the fundamental interest of china. it is against world peace and development. no more cold war. >> let me bring in robert and ask the same question. this talk of sanctions, military drills, promises to standby taiwan. does it sound like a cold war shaping up to you? >> it does if you listen to dr. gallo. it sounds an awful lot to -- an awful lot like the cold war.

you're talking about sanctioning members of congress. there is been a big shift in american opinion about engaging with china. there is growing regret the united states facilitated the entrance into the wto. taiwan is becoming the focal point of of competition. we are sort of sliding there. i don't know it is going to be disastrous. >> is it different this time? it might be easy to draw the parallels but the economies of the u.s. and china or western countries in general and china are more interdependent than china -- and china is more wealthy than the soviet union was. >> that is right. china's greater wealth means it does turn into a cold war. it could last a great deal longer. the cold war was losing -- china has got a much greater

capacity to select this out. this could drag on for decades. because the two are economically intertwined. on the u.s. end of it, u.s. business community has pushed back on hawkish voices in washington. against those who want to take a larder -- a harder line on china. u.s. business community softened on china. there have been a lot of issues with piracy and it alledge will property. i don't think the u.s. business community is deterring the hawks anymore. there is increasingly a bipartisan agreement that china is a strategic competitor. >> let's get the view from

taipei. why do you of western interest has increased in taiwan lately? we have had not only this visit from embers of congress but we also had visits from european officials to taipei. >> whether this framework was -- this framework does apply to the present. what is different from the new cold war and the original cold war is that taiwan is neatly between the two. vital shipping routes pass through taiwan's ocean waters. regarding these trade interests. according to some reports, taiwanese semi conductors are in the cruise missiles from china pointed at taiwan. this is illustrative of the dilemma taiwan has. it is reliant on u.s. security.

there is not a majority of taiwanese in support of china. that is the question. it has become a hinge point. taiwan is serving as a proxy arena in which they are contesting this. >> let's take some of those points back to victor in beijing. think china's increasing ability to project its power militarily whether it is over taiwan, whether it is in the south china sea to project its economy and economic influence through 5g technology to cyber security breaches, do you think all that is fueling concern in the west? >> china is a big power in the world and china does need national defense capabilities to measure it to its increasing economic reach. this is a fact. china's national defense is

mostly for domestic defense as well as liberating taiwan if we have to or peaceful unification with taiwan preferably. china's military defense is designed to protect china's legitimate interest in the four corners of the world. this is the nature of china's defense. china does not want to invade any other country or take over any other country's land because this is not only against china's own interest, it is against the principle of peace in peaceful coexistence with all the other countries in the world. there are people raising false alarms about china's economic development or the steady development of its defense capabilities. china's defense capabilities are very large. it is on the power of the united states. >> let me jump in there and talk

about the defensive posture in july. we had that core dated u.s. and european condemnation of china for what they saw as hacking. >> if you talk about hacking, read edward snowden's book or writings and you will know who is the top hacker in the world today. don't mention to me about china doing hacking when you ignore what edward snowden has written very eloquently about who is the king of hacking in the world of today. >> let's take that point to robert. as the west increasingly viewing china as an adversary on political, economic and security levels because china is gaining an ability to do back to world powers what they have had them in up lyons doing? -- the monopoly on doing? >> i think that is pretty clear

also. china is developing a full-spectrum of military and security presence. not just traditional force protection across water and air but that also means new areas like cyberspace, outerspace will become an issue. that is what happened during the first cold war. the cold war in the 1950's spread out in the third world and got all mixed up in anticolonial insurgencies. i would not be surprised if the larger political competition would spill out in different directions. the good news is i doubt if there would be sustained major land conflicts like there were during the first cold war. i doubt that will happen again because most of the contestation is on china's maritime

perimeter. that means you should not have major land conflicts. on the others, the bad news for the americans is china is much wealthier and can expand into all these domains and counter the americans. americans are into hacking too. i don't know too much about this but i'm sure the americans and chinese are trying to hack each other. i don't think anybody would be surprised at that. >> caught in the middle, the picture emerging is there is a much bigger political global power game going on between the west and china. taiwan is in the middle. let's take that question to taipei and ask, does this mean from the taiwanese perspective, do they see the west is invested in taiwan's independence per se or simply invested in taiwan has a cards a playoff against china yucca >> -- against china yucca

>> that is something china has struggled with for decades. there is around 600 their defense -- [indiscernible] the five days after national day, there were one in 50. the people are not in penny because of the fact -- [indiscernible] facing policies of strategic ambiguity, the american position is unclear. we have strengthening relations with taiwan. at the end of the day, there is not a u.s. commitment to back taiwan. what needs to be kept clear is taiwanese are not pushing for independence. most people favor the status quo. they realize pushing for independence will lead to a loss of independence for taiwan. most taiwanese just want to be left alone by china.

that is why they have suffered this pragmatic view of pushing for the status quo. maintaining what exists now. beijing is increasing its redline. even though the preference is for maintaining the status quo. even though the biden administration calls for the status quo. >> victor in beijing, is china losing the ability to discourage closer relations with taiwan by signaling there will be an economic cost? in the past, it seems that made western countries a lot more cautious but lately, we have had the with the lenience authorizing the opening of the taiwan representative office. that you you delegation -- in the you delegation that visited recently.

>> we talked about several eastern european countries. i want to remind you china already asked that country to recall its ambassador to china. if they continue onto the wrong path of provoking china in violation of the one china policy, china will probably sever its diplomatic relations. >> if that happens, does that mean china is losing its ability to influence other countries' policies toward taiwan? >> the influence -- the answer is the influence of the impact should be clear. there's only one china. taiwan is part of china. it is acknowledged by the united nations by almost all the countries in the world including the united states, including all the five member states. japan acknowledged that. this is the cornerstone of china's foreign relations with

all the countries in the world. with all the united nations. the united states cannot have the cake and eat it. in 1979, the into the states severed relations with taiwan. they canceled a treaty between united states and taiwan. they withdrew all u.s. troops stationed in taiwan. if they want to reverse that, in my guest but the consequence will be there will be no more diplomatic relations between china and the united states. and the real legal status between china's mainland and taiwan is the civil war. taiwan ended up with its current situation. it is because of the potsdam declaration. it is because of a civil war in china. the nationalist forces fled the mainland and settled down in taiwan. if the united states keep

provoking that, they will provoke the resumption of a civil war and do you think the u.s. wants to send it sons and daughters for a civil war between china's mainland and china's taiwan province? i don't think the united states wants to shed the blood of its soldiers for taiwan. ever since the beginning of the 1960's, china's mainland already possessed enough military capabilities to take taiwan by force. why china has never done that? because we all prefer peaceful reagan acacian of china. >> what's take that point to robert. -- let's take that point to robert. how far do you think the u.s. is willing to go in supporting taiwan and supporting taiwanese independence yucca there is a lot of arguments against going all the way. in 2020, china overtook the u.s.

as the e.u.'s top trade partner. >> all that economic leverage makes it much trickier. we are able to play a harder game at times than the soviets because they were not dependent on them. i would imagine the chinese will use leverage to push back on this. as of the economies begin to delink and i think that is coming. i think the united states is going to start to unwind its economic relationship with china. that will allow the united states to strike a harder position. >> what do you mean by d-link? we are talking about a major global economy that supplies a lot of things that everybody uses around the world. >> sure. it is going to take a long time. i would argue politics trumps economics.

that security and sovereignty and concerns are more important than running a trade deficit. >> the u.s. is going to try to produce everything itself again in a reversal of decades of globalization trends? >> no, just with china. it is also fairly recent. china only joined the wto 20 years ago. it can be unwound. if we are concerned about a major collision at the superpower level, suffering higher costs at walmart is worth it. trump and biden people have signaled this. trump people put all these tariffs on china. >> you think u.s. capitol wants that? >> i do not. i think the u.s. business committed is a -- is ambiguous. i think the business community has moved to the right on china. the business committed is far less pro-china than it was before because we think the chinese government regulates

them unfairly and politicized a lot of stuff and forced tech transfer. but yeah, i think there is a fair block of the chamber of commerce types who want china integration. and i also think the strategic concerns will be the ones that really matter. if the perception is that china is using cheap goods at walmart's a bully u.s. friends in the region, then it is congress that calls the shots. not wall street. >> since we are talking economics, let's take some of those points to taipei. you think economic interest is also something taiwan is benefiting from these economic interdependence concerns robert is talking about in the west? is it particular when it comes to taiwanese semiconductors? the west is increasingly looking at how to improve its business relationship taiwan.

>> one of the assurances of china invading taiwan is taiwan many factors china semi conductors. it is important to keep in mind china does not have the capacity to transport enough troops to taiwan to carry out a long-term occupation. china suffering enough losses to become a major political low for the ccp. that has to be kept in mind. what is key to know in terms of strengthening relations between taiwan and european countries is -- not as strong a trade relationship with china. they're reliant on the u.s. for security similar to taiwan. and so strengthening support of is a way to signal strengthening relations with the u.s.. they have no motivations.

whether western european countries follow, the leader that his friends -- we have to be careful in terms of how we look at this economic relationship. when there is fresh air applied to it, it often will boycott substitutable goods. these are not -- i think we need to be a little more specific rather than abstractions. >> attic we have about a minute left so let me try to get in final word. victor, what is the bottom line? it does seem like the bite administration has succeeded somewhat in bringing allies together against china. and perhaps more of an alliance than the trump administration pin how can china counter that?

>> china and the united states will have their virtual summit meeting on monday, november 15. this sends a good message to the whole world because the countries are not destined to fight off he cut her -- fed off each other in war. -- fight off each other in war. the fact that china and the united states signed this climate change agreement in glasgow speaks loudly that china and the united states can get their acts together to promote cooperation and friendship eventually in taiwan will be a smaller thing in the overall scale of china u.s. relations. these are the two greatest nations in the world. the two most important militaries in the world and the two largest economies in the

world. i am optimistic about a medium and logo term relations between china and the united states. >> let's end on a optimistic note and thank our guests. and thank you for watching. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website, al jazeera.com. head over to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. from me and the whole team here for now, it is goodbye. ♪

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