warning that the lifted sanctions is nonnegotiable. both aims achievable? and will he be forced to make some concessions? this is "inside story." ♪ >> hello, welcome to the program

i'm cumber fell after rounds of talks negotiations to limit program and sanctions seem to be heading toward a stand still. they resumed talks in the nuclear deal in vienna next week. they ended without progress. teheran wants to renegotiate. and wants reassures that the u.s. won't repeat the pullout of three years ago. the secretary of state says iran isn't serious about returning to nuclear compliance. as the new draft nears completion, negotiators accused the awryians of take ago step backwards in a televised address marking 100 days in office, iran's president said the lifting of sanctions is nonnegotiatable if talks are to continue. [speaking foreign language] >> we stated two flings the beginning, one is to neutralize the sanctions and then to lift the sanctions. they were thinking that we were not going to take part of the

negotiations because we have nothing to say but the world was convinced that iran actually did participate very actively and with authority when it comes to jcpla. when it comes to the lifting of sanctions we were pursuing this and we wanted to make sure these two things happen. >> all right. let's talk about let's bring in our guest. a political science of teheran. he joins us by skype from the iranian capital. we have a nuclear nonpro live nation and disarmament analyst he joins us by skype from long do but also from skype but washington, d.c. is jam al abdi. a very warm welcome to you all. thank you for joining us on inside story i would like to begin with you jamal. in his speech, the president said that his country will do whatever it takes to have these sanctions lifted. how flexible is he likely to be to have that aim achieveed? >> this is is the big question.

because -- this is the question because for the iranians there is little guarantee that the united states stay in the deal. and if a new president comes in in 2025 won't tear deal up. so for the iranians at this point unless there is movement on the u.s. side and the p-5 side, then really we're looking for the iranians to be flexible because there's not a lot of flexibilities on the u.s. side. this is accurate, you know, there's not a lot of political space in the united states for a new deal, if there is a new deal. it needs to go through congress. think the impasse is largely over the fact that you know, the cyst saying to iran to come into a deal hopefully benefit from three years of sanction relief but it's unclear if iran is going to see the full scope of that sanctions relief. and so the world's asking iran to accept something less while taking the same steps in

reigning on the nuclear program. i don't know what the team arrived at. do they feel it's necessary to get this deal or are they going to be able to neutralize sanctions as they did for the past three years? >> we will talk about that a little bit later in the program. for now, i would like to bring in my next guest. what do you think the conc concessions that he is willing to be done? >> i think iran's initial positions are likely to be its bottom line. but they are going to push for trying to get the most that they can out of the current deal we we want to make sure that iran see it is benefit that is meant to see. during the obama years it was not that grease. it was worse during the trump years because of the

reimposition of sanctions. a lot has been learned and sit clear that >> in to be adequate foreign direct investment and trade that iran has to make sure that there are serb assurances put in place. so that companies and banks and other that is need to facilitate such trade-in investment can actually do so and that is sustained into the future. in terms of what concessions iran is willing to make, i think they're trying to go under their full nuclear commitments as written out in the jcpoa. the problem is that they're only going to do that if they can make sure that the zeal the win-win deal that it was meant to be. >> id i would like to bring in hamad, according to some reports iran's chief negotiates not only wants the u.s. to lift their sanction first before it can return to full compliance but wants sanctioned lifted unrelated to teheran's nuclear

activities is that your understanding? >> absolutely. i mean, that's snag the iranian leader ayatollah amniot lined a few months ago. it doesn't really matter what the sanctions are labeled as. they could be sanctioned for human rights, etcetera. but the ultimate effect on the iranian economy is the same. and from iran's perspective, all of the trump euro sanctions were placed so that that the jcpoa would die. they're very actually near that stage right now. so if the u.s. actually lifts some sanctions, but other sanctions remain, then the effects on the iranian economy will be minimal. and i don't think that's a position the iranian government will accept. the second issue regarding having guarantees that the u.s. will not withdraw again is also important. i mean, just a few days ago, the former french ambassador to

washington tweeted that no western company or bank would dare to invest in iran when there's a threat of the republicans would withdraw in 2025. so i think that's also a very important red line f for iran. >> is that something that the u.s. can do? could the u.s. make that assurance that future administrations won't pull out of this deal? >> no. the -- the u.s. would not be able to do that. even if president biden took the deal to congress which he has to do in any circumstance. there's a new deal. he has to take it to congress. some of his critics here in washington say take it to congress as a treaty not just through the process that's already been established for nuclear agreements with iran. but even if it's a treaty, we saw president trump tear up several treaties as well there's not a lo the president can do to con constrain a future

president. if you get a deal and you set up a stronger sort of diplomatic agreement that would be more difficult to tear up. and you have more police cal support here in the united states. i think that's -- i think maybe that's farfetched at this point. but the other thing the president can want do. the president has almost unlimited authority to suspend the sanctions. so on the question of what the president can do here and now what, the president can do to make sure that over the next several years that's, iran does receive the full promise benefit, that's articulated in the jcpoa and that's pretty broad, there's a lot of room to interpret what that means to insure iran can get that sanctions relieved, the president has a lot of options for the united states. we're talk about a future administration, i think that is a matter of aligning things political in the united states

so there are barriers to a future administration tearing up a deal. >> it sounds like a lot of what everyone is saying is quite pessimistic about the outcome of these talks. by iranian invest gaars to have left the door open after putting forth their own drafts suggest that the europeans could the same some of is that not a good sign that's? >> well, i think it's great that the new administration and iran has come together and put together what they would like to see. however, of course, it has been reported that the europeans, the americans, and also the russians and the chinese were a bit shocked by the initial opening position. as i said earlier, it's probably not the bottom line. but i think what we need to do is shift the conversation a bit from political and legal guarantees to more technical ones. and in the last few weeks we release add paper at that time european leadership network and the foundation which has received a lot of pickup in iran actually there was a response in

the government daily that iran newspaper today on the front page on this. and we basically talk about how we need to focus on the technical. so if in fact, the main benefit that is iran are meant to get are economic from this deal, then we need to see how ton these countries creatively come together and devise prompts who's implementation would say that everybody has more skin in the game. the legal guarantees impossible and the political guarantees are insufficient. because etch if biden commits zillion something to doing something that doesn't mean that future presidents will be committed in the same way. so by focusing on more creative solutions in the economic sphere, we hope that we can kind of push this dialogue from gridlock to one that is more creative and opportune for pushing this over the edge. in terms of iran's other positions it's very difficult to say because everybody's being quite tight lipped but i would say assume that iran is not going to really want to talk

about their nuclear obligations until they get a very clear idea of what they're able to be delivered in terms of sanctions relief. and iran is doing this in a way to try to flip the original negotiations which had started with long talks over their nuclear restrictions and that was follow bid sanctions relief. but because things have been flipped on its head upside down because of donald trump's violation and withdrawal of the deal, iran is try to reba lance it and the void of trust that that created. >> i want to get on to the issue of trust. but before we move on to mr. shaw this is seeing that this is your sphere, nuclear disarmament analyst, there has been a lot of talk of the idea of a breakout time. and basically the amount of time that it would tack for iran to be able to move in into actually having nuclear capables. is that still something that is being discussed in negotiating

circles or is that an idea that is being put to the side? >> it's definitely being discussed in negotiating circles. i think breakout time as a metric is very questionable because what breakout time is is to have one single quantity of material that would be able to then, if weaponized create a nuclear weapon and one nuclear weapon is not a nuclear weapons program. so obviously it is -- it is not always seen as being the best metric. but sit the metric that is often use bid governments. and at the moment, the breakout time has indeed decreased to a point where certain getting quite nervous. however, of course, because of the robust monitoring and inspection effort that is the iaea has been monitoring, we would be able to know if that is happening. if iran decides to go for nuclear weapons, we would absolutely be able to see that because it's very difficult to

duplicate the entire process and then make it dover when we have -- covert when we have a lot of information on the ground. a lot of that is thanks to the jcpoa. >> we talked about the technicals. but there is the very core issue of trust, isn't there? does iran trust the west as a negotiating partner? donald trump pulled out that's going to take a lot of the trust away. as it stands now, do you think iran trust it is american negotiationing team? >> well, first of all, i would like to comment on the issue of breakout time. now, when we're talk about breakout time, we're actually talking about a hype pet hypotheticalscenario. it's mostly a political decision. nevertheless, when we are talk about a breakout time, i think this isst moseley the narrative of the -- this is mostly the narrative of the israelis. they've been saying that iran is

six months to a year away from a nuclear weapon since the 1990's. and this has been well documented. so i think the breakout sometime something about a hypothetical scenario. there's actually no evidence that iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. actually, u.s. intelligence agencies have said that iran has not pursued a nuclear weapon after 2003. now, regarding the issue of trust, we have to remember that when in 2018 donald trump withdraw from the agreement, the europeans assured iran that i iran's economy would be protected. that sanctions would not be implemented and for a whole year, actually iran fully obligated by its side of the deal nevertheless, they were willing or unsuccessful to block any of the sanction some of the result of that is that when the europeans or even the americans are talking about so called economic guarantees, there's really no trust in teheran

regarding that because we just had the experience regarding those guarantees in the past three years. also when the biden administration came into power, there was a lot of discussion that they would show good will by lifting some of the sanctions, that's humanitarian issues and sanction that is are affecting iran's humanitarian crisis regarding covid, etcetera, etcetera. they would lift those. and we actually saw nothing from the biden administration and that was i think very disappointing. and i think it soured the talks. >> jamal, abdi, the president said he would not link the country's economy to the results of the nuclear negotiations. what shape is the iranian economy is on? not link future economy with what happens in vienna? >> that's what the iranians have done for the past several years

now that donald trump exited the deal. and you know, i think the -- the economic picture is -- it's much more positive than i think a lot of people would have expected given the extent of the u.s. sanctions. and so we now know, you know, that the risi administration does not take into account any sanction relief. so they are, you know, assuming a no-deal scenario. and you know, i think that some analysts. i'm not an economist but some believe that, you know, iran may be overestimating what is possible with the sanctions remaining in place. maybe taken for granted some of the -- the way that is countries like china have been able to get around the sanctions more recently to, you know, help improve iran's economy. >> ok.

hamad, i want to take this ton for teheran, someone who is living there know what is the prices are. president risi said that high price, inflation, these are the things, the big challenges for him. he says he's listening to the people they want to be able to afford more things for daily life. so i guess i want to put that question to you, does the president have at his disposal the ability to strengthen the iranian economy without having the sanctions lifted? >> i think it's going to be very difficult. i mean, the experience of the past 100 days has been that the raisi government has had a lot of difficulties controlling inflation, nevin the past few days the iranian currency, the real has lot a little bit of its value because of the gloomy analysis regarding the outcome of the negotiations. nevertheless, i think at the same time, the ianian government feels that it really -- iranian

government feels feels it doese any more results. so i think there's a very difficult path ahead. but the alternatives might actually be worse. >> jamaal, u.s. secretary of state blinken warned that sometime running out for negotiations saying that if there's no agreement, that the u.s. would pursue other options? >> this is the thing that hasn't been properly evaluated because there's been a lot of talk about plan b. and the israelis urging the united states to move to a plan b. and yet, what plan b actually entails it's ether really grave, you know, big things like the israeli supposedly are encouraging the united states to engage in military strikes

against iranian targets not necessarily inside of iran but in the region. short of military action there's been talk of a board of governor acensure. i think there's potentially, you know, in him planning this, i think you could look at potentially a s snap back of u.. sanctions. maybe other countries joining in on the sanctions. maybe the u.s. take ago tougher line china to try to close any loopholes. but these are all pretty small measures. you have to remember that the united states is already engaged in a maximum pressure campaign that the biden administration inherited from trump. so the abilities to escalate that pressure is pretty limited because we are getting maximum pressure. so i think that plan b it quickly turns into either military strikes or -- some sanctions measures that don't change it for deabout >> so hirsha, iran has been

accused of trying to buy more time to continue its nuclear program. how much has iranees nuclear program actually advanced let's say in the last five months since the last round of talks. >> think that there definitely have been substantial advances made especially in the area of enrichment. the good think however is that we industrial eyes an ears on the ground to be able to assess the progress that they're making and the main thing that is concerning to a lot of people while, you know, of course the capabilities and the stockpiles are important, those are things that can then be reversed and put under control. but the one thing that is bugging negotiators is the increased knowledge that iran has dereeved from being able to search and develop more advanced centrifuges for example. so iran has progressed but iran has progressed because there hasn't been progress in from the biden administration in trying

to creatively figure out how to get the deal back on track. so i think that, you know, overall, it is definitely concerning and i think that the europeans in particular are not happy with how iran has utilized the past five months because at the same time as doing consultations with them and others, they have indeed been ramping things up. however, this is indeed in my opinion to try to gain leverage you know, in the face of what jamaal said which is continued maximum pressure. we are seeing iran continue maximum resistance. and the only way that they can turn up the temperature at the moment it seems is on the nuclear file because in the region which is where they also would normally try to increase the temperature, at the moment, there are budding regional security talks. iran is taken quite seriously. >> we're going to talk about the regional element now. i'd like to come back to you

hamad musavi. there's a lot of activity the eie security adviser has been meeting with president raisi. and the syrian prime minister has visited. and oman. and president's turkey in qatar. what kind of discussions will be being had behind closed doors about the nuclear negotiations? and is there any outside influence that might impact teheran's decision making? i don't think regional countrys will be able to really influence iran's decision making process i think iran feels very powerful. the very fact that the uae and the saudis are negotiatingen though negotiations with the americans is not going well, from the iranian perspective shows iranian influence and power. so on that front iran is in a

pretty comfortable situation. that partly goes back to the fact that iran beliefs that the americans unlike their retoric where they keep saying we have a plan b which might consist of us or the israeli attacking iran. i think iran believes the americans do not really have a creditable military option. you have to remember that even donald trump who had a much harsher rhetoric actually attacked you. i don't think they want a major war. they're actually retreating from the middle east. that work to iran's benefit. >> we're coming up to the end of time. i'd like to come back to your jamaal abdi. how do you see things playing out in the next week? i believe talks are meant to resume later this week. we're potentially going into the weekend. do you think we're going to see much more movement? >> my hope is that this was an opening gambit by the raisi administration that the -- the line that they've taken on the

sanctions is going to soften. and i do think ultimately, it's going to be a matter of -- is iran going to show the flexibility that united states is unable to show. my opinion is that the iranians want a deal and hopefully understand that, you know, while it may not be fair, it is a better situation for iran. it's a better situation for everybody involved. and so hopefully the parties will understand that there are no plan b's. this is it this is it. this is it. get ago diem deal, a diplomatic agreement. but we will see whether or not the parties want to go a different way. you know, i just think that the option are pretty bad for everybody outside of the negotiating table. >> we'll have to leave it there for time. thank you very much to our guests jamal and hamad mosavi and jahlil salve. you can go to our website aljazeera.com. and go to our facebook.

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