people. lockdowns, omicron creating uncertainty. how can we deal with the economic implications? this is inside story. it was march 11 of 2020, year

and nine months ago. the word pandemic took over our lives. the global economy cannot afford to take the kind of hits it took last year. the speed of recovery is tied to policy changes. the uncertainty means predictions can change at any time which ends up affecting church investments, and while everyday people hold onto their savings, markets keep climbing. the impact has hit economies differently, but some affect

seven alt the same in all countries. millions of people losing their jobs, businesses forced to close. global supply chains, still disrupted. many ports are clogged with ships. the imf predicts the cost of the basics will rise 4.3% this year, the biggest jump we have seen since 2011. we can't solve all of the world's problems, but we can talk about them. a professor. in london, our guest. and the dean of the school of management.

i think all three of you for joining us. i don't think we are going to solve everything. we will maybe figure out which direction. primarily, because of your title, you look at political economy. i have always thought of this pandemic, the reactions as being politics versus economics. political decisions versus economic ones. it has all been politicized. >> i think the politicization is becoming more evident. mostly in the second. after two years, having a global economy, still acting as if it was the first day. the whole world panicked.

closed down flights. there were no global institutions. it was a unilateral move by some countries without making a phone call. without coordinating. host: why did they do it? you said for no reason. is it the knee-jerk reactions? >> i think so. no one takes the world health organization seriously. governments do what they feel is right. they don't even listen to science. scientists have said, this is not severe.

it could be good news because maybe we have a new dominant virus that rings about a milder disease. that is what you want. yet, governments are motivated by panic. i don't think it's a conspiracy, but it's even more scary that we are globally run as if we do not have a system. host: in london, used to advise the u.k. government. how did you feel that, in if you were doing this during the pandemic, was the government listening to the advice? the outcomes of lockdowns. >> the interesting thing in the u.k.'s scientists were calling for tighter measures before the omicron variant impact was calculated. there have been this concerned

that things were getting worse, cases would be picking up in the winter. they had already had increased travel restrictions that were coming along in addition to what we have seen more recently, which is go back to working from home as much as you possibly can. the discussions about covid passports. i would suggest in this case, the politicians would say we have been listening to the science, even though maybe the omicron variant is not as dangerous as people have thought in terms of its impact, even though it's obviously spreading. we are seeing in europe, the netherlands, other countries tightening up significantly, we saw it in austria. the economic situation is obviously looking a little bit weaker.

most forecasters were already revising expectations, both for 2021 and 2022 downwards. even before the latest worries surfaced. we're getting there in any case. host: you would hopefully move past lockdowns. i was listening to the surgeon general. he said that was our only weapon. now, we have vaccines and experience. >> it's absolutely true. vaccines are significant, and the fact that now everyone is trying to get a third booster. nevertheless, i think what governments are doing is using politics, threat of closures.

a way to encourage vaccinations. the agent which you start having the boosters initiated. the target is every adult should be asked to have a booster by the end of this month, december. that's a big issue? what it means is if you do get those boosters then as you suggest, lockdowns make very little sense. host: let's bring in the view from asia. i have not heard a lot about the situation in japan.

>> negative publication. interest rates get depressed. there will be a continuous spread of inequality. that is what people talk about. japan has a low amount of inequality, that said, this not

only connects to the economic side, but political motives. there was a good expression, the government being motivated by the covid-19 vaccine. the effect it had on the economy. it's not only that, there's also a vast change in the distribution chain. basically due to the fact we're getting a big hegemony between the united states and china, japan being scrawled into this. host: let me interrupt you. the issue of supply chains. cannot keep up with the work. is there a bigger lesson?

stuff has to get from a to b. >> the answer is yes and no. throwing away the old status quo and doing business. at the same time, covid-19 has been a wake-up call, and particular to nations that have been already aligned by the aggression by the chinese. people are walking away to a just in case system. theoretically, it might sound good because people want to prepare for issues like covid-19, but, from the economic theoretical point of view, that is suicide. you want to increase your

inventory when your demand is unclear. but, the geopolitical factor is winning the economic factor, because we all understand the threat that has been displayed by the chinese government. obviously, we are seeing this covid-19 issue having an indirect impact on the geopolitical side, it directly impacts the economic situation. host: i will direct this to all three of you. inflation. joe biden has admitted it's a problem, he thinks it will come down quickly, but it's a scary prospect. i will start with you. >> there was a time, this idea that inflation was temporary, the european central bank.

we understand this is not the case, it's back. it's back for a number of reasons. we are seeing is a perfect storm , inflation. that's why at this point in time, you would have expected governments to learn the lesson. i have seen how little thinking when into it. businesspeople are all over the world asking, are we going to see this again.

they would expect -- in two years time, maybe there will be another virus. you would expect government to step in and say hold on, we have protocols. we are a mature society. we are not led by got feelings. my hope is that we have learned the lesson now. the travel ban is lifted. in a complex world, you need to have a functioning system to operate. we expect it to happen again and economics is about perceptions. if perception is negative, that is what you get. host: i like what he is saying.

the idea we have to look at this is a much bigger picture and a global picture. the problem with global governance, and this is really simplistic, everyone is different. this nationalism. that's understandable. how do you get global governance ? >> the interesting thing is, countries have put huge amounts of money in the economy. what the wto, we might see a draw.

that was much less. what we're seeing in 2021, that has kept quite a lot of nations going. we have had money countries to help with demand. you have seen oil prices go up. demand strong. before we become depressed, the reality is you increased demand.

they are pretty positive. we're talking about substantial growth. host: i have imf numbers. we're talking about global growth. 5% next year. you have talked about money being pumped into the system. you can't keep doing that. >> reducing the bonds that's being in the market. it's been something like $120

billion. every month, november. that may change a little bit. what we have seen his monetary support taking place right now. they are looking again at not increasing interest rates. we are not talking about -- being -- not getting into that

depression. monetary and fiscal authorities seem to be quite prepared an active necessary. host: do you want to jump in? >> if i may add, coordination as become eloquently. you have the mutual cooperativeness that can kick in. obviously, to sustain calmness this a must for countries like

japan and demographics. senior citizens, a majority of -- the rise of interest rates would be aired armageddon scenario. the situation where we are talking about a lot of spending. host: you are all at home, a living room. i wonder if i can get from each of you. just to get a view from your part of the world. i feel people have started heading back to the office.

>> a lot of people want to keep the change. the pandemic. thus negative impact. a lot of the experiences we have our privilege. a lot of people here don't have the luxury. micro enterprises. this conversation, the vaccination program, they are not vaccinated because they don't want to gnash their

vaccinating the newborns and babies, doctors are not vaccinated, let alone the citizens. this is what i'm talking about when i say the pandemic has shown a lot of selfishness, and self-defeating selfishness, because at the end of the day we are suffering from those countries where people have not been vaccinated. the economy will eventually benefit. if we are able to turn it into an endemic, we can go back to having a much better economic trajectory. at the same time retain the good things. host: what are things like in london? >> the tubes are beginning to

get quite full, people are relishing going out again. there was a bit of a hybrid situation. most people would go into the office for just a few days a week. it is a big issue. you don't have the luxury. the higher you get paid, the more likely there was a bigger share of those tasks you could do from home, the lower pay scale people had to go out and still do -- that has created equality. host: how are things there? >> i would like to hope that this will continue in the sense that a new methodology, breaking the ice type of issues will

continue. one of the problems is sticking to the status quo. it should be perpetuated. host: thank you so much. really appreciate it. catch up with any of our previous editions. thank you for joining us. goodbye for now. we will see you again soon. ♪

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