mosul's old glory. >> this is al jazeera. these are your top stories -- thousands of people are stranded in the ukrainian port city of mary a pole -- mariupol. russian troops are not reportedly approaching the city center. the ukrainian president has spoken in the last hour and has again called for meaningful peace and security talks with moscow. >> this this time to meet.

this is the time to speak, time to restore territorial integrity and justice for ukraine. otherwise, the losses of pressure will be such that you won't have any resources to get up after that. >> the ukrainian capital kyiv has also been hit by russian schelling. a russian missile hit a residential building. emergency crews have been searching for survivors. several russian rockets have hit an aircraft maintenance park in a city that has so far escaped the worst of the bombardment seen elsewhere in ukraine. it has become a safe haven for refugees fleeing parts of the country that have come under fire. the u.s. president has worn his chinese counterpart that there will be consequences if beijing provides material support to russian forces attacking ukraine. the leaders spoke on the phone for nearly two hours. china has so far refused to

condemn russia's invasion. >> we have a range of tools that can be considered, and sanctions are certainly one tool in the toolbox, as they are for other countries as well, even as we have not outline specific consequences, and we will communicate those directly to china and, of course, with our european partners and counterparts. >> russia's president vladimir putin has praised the war in ukraine as a success. he appeared before large crowds who gathered to celebrate eight years since russia annexed crimea. state tune for "inside story." >> counterfeit foods, cheap and sometimes dangerous copies of the real thing, have and found all over the world, and even the most expensive premium products. it is a secretive and deadly multibillion-dollar business.

>> that has about 1/3 horse dna, which was just and equitable finding. >> italian police found consignments of fake olive oil made from industrial lubricants that were being exported to the united states. >> the main thing we do when we carry out criminal investigations is to reconstruct the money flow and the flow of goods and connect these together. >> that offers profits that are easy to make and hard to ignore. >> russian missiles and artillery continue to bombard several cities but none have been captured after almost a month of fighting, so what is the kremlin's military strategy? this is "inside story."

hello and welcome to the program. the war in ukraine, which russia hoped would be over with in days, is now into its fourth week. russian tanks and military convoys remain at a standstill outside kyiv. the kremlin has yet to capture any of ukraine's biggest cities despite attacks by land, sea, and air. they have targeted mainly residential areas throughout the week as well as an outpouring of popular support for ukrainians. aid from nato countries and others are helping stall the invasion. vladimir putin has shown little sign of an event -- of relenting. >> if vladimir putin of russia

had early hopes of his russian forces achieving magnificent victories of the ukrainian army being welcomed into ukrainian towns and cities by populations glad to see russian forces here than those hopes are quickly disappearing just as the snow's and frosts are having way too spring here in eastern europe. time is not on the side of the russians, and many of the forces that came down from the north have been largely bumped down along columns of roads of the country. from the south, we have more success being found by better equipped units coming up from the crimea that maybe are better trained and better motivated that have seen victories against ukrainian forces falling back, but the russians have found that in the towns and cities they have taken over, they are still racing a strong resistance from people who simply do not want them there, and time is not on

the side of the russians. as putin becomes more of a pariah in the eyes of the world, president zelenskyy of the ukraine -- his stature seems to grow by the day. the longer russian forces are bogged down, the more vulnerable they are to the growing resistance and strength of the ukrainian military, fed by recruits from home, by volunteers from abroad, and all now using increasing amounts of this sophisticated military hardware from the west, the antitank missiles, antiaircraft whistles, all of them increasingly targeted now at russian forces. >> let's now bring in our guests for today's "inside story." in kyiv, we have a professor of politics and the head of research at the democratic initiatives foundation.

in london, an expert on russia anti-invasion affairs and also the author of "through times of trouble: conflict from ukraine explained from within." and an assistant director at the eurasian center of the atlantic council. welcome to you all. thank you for being with us. if you could tell us about the situation on the ground as this conflict enters its fourth week. are we seeing a change in russia's strategy since the start of the invasion? >> first of all, i would like to -- basically, you describe the situation quite correctly. russian forces are stalled, exhausted, and demoralized. what russia is doing, they are starting to kill civilians, two shall civilians, and there's

many evidence of that. they do not spare maternity houses, children hospitals, and other places. they are preventing humanitarian convoys to besieged cities, and actually, russians were saying they were going to liberate russian speakers. they turned russian-speaking cities -- they totally bombed and destroyed. this is the depth now of russia, to intimidate civilians, to intimidate the west, to intimidate ukraine, and to intimidate the world community with the threat of nuclear war. i would like to add that actually, while i'm talking to you, there is -- it is necessary

for people to go to the bomb shelter and about two days ago, a residential place just one kilometer from me was hit by russians. >> you are right. the bombings have become frequent in recent days in kyiv as we have seen and heard from our correspondence on the ground. thank you for telling us about the situation there. russia had denied, of course, targeting civilians. let me come to you in london. british military intelligence has said russia's invasion has largely stalled on all fronts with russian forces making minimal progress on land, sea, or air in recent days, but president putin has again denied this, saying the operation is going to plan. what is the reality of the situation there as you see it? >> yes, first, i would like to

say to alexi that i have full support and sympathy and solidarity with their plight. we are, of course, very saddened and shocked, so please accept that as kind of heartfelt. on putin, i think he has to present a brave front. he cannot say that his strategy has failed. but i don't think that they will make any final assessments and say that this is something which is better. normally there would have been

several battles, some of it political, some of it combination, and some of it all on assault. putin has chosen the high risk strategy, but it does not mean other strategies do not exist. putin's normal pattern of behavior is first to test the opponent, particularly militarily, economically, whatever means, wait for response, and then take the next step. now, we are seeing that kind of pause and evaluation state. he is also thinking how things would progress before the next strategy would be activated. >> ok, so, you say we are in the pause and evaluation phase of this russian strategy. what are your thoughts? what do you make of this

strategy? we are seeing a shift towards rate or of artillery and missile strikes -- greater use of artillery and missile strikes. what does that say to you about what is to come next in the conflict? >> sure, thank you. first, i want to echo anna's words. alexi, i think it is incredible you are joining us as error rates are going on around you. i wish you nothing but safety. it seems like what alexi had mentioned before, the attempt to intimidate ukrainians with massive apartment and shelling of civilian targets is spot on. i think we can all recognize that ukrainians are not going to surrender to russian domination, so even if russian forces were a bit more effective in their campaigns and were able to seize major cities like kyiv, i think we can see they would not be able to hold them so easily. we already see where occupiers

are being met by demonstrators. ukrainians operations forces, special operations forces are also waging significant operations. they recently rescued the captured mayor and freed him. these attempts to bomb civilian tatargets, such as mariupol theater where civilians were hiding this week, these are attempts to physically eradicate any resistance. we will see that is not going to be so effective. >> the strength of the ukrainian resistance has certainly caught many by surprise, including the russians. what do you think has worked to their advantage? >> this is surprise only for those who do not know ukraine, who did not follow events in ukraine and who failed to

understand us, those who believed in russian myths about everything that was done by russia since 2014. let me remind that russia violated all the agreements, so it increased ukrainian territories, as well as other ethnic groups in ukraine. all the polls show that ukrainians are going to resist. the ukrainian army was significantly transformed since 2014, but putin apparently did not want to believe it.

the simple decision-making in dictatorship state, nobody is willing to submit or yield the situation on the ground, so putin miscalculated. he thought that ukrainians would be happy to meet russian soldiers. he misunderstood and misunderstood ukrainian army, ukrainian society, and he also miscalculated international support to ukraine as well. >> interesting you say that. you said before that we are in the pause phase of this strategy now, the russian strategy. do you think we are going to see a significant shift of this strategy moving forward, and will be -- will ukrainians be able to maintain an active defensive military effort, which they have been able to do until now? >> the last part of your question i think has been answered already.

i can tell you that from my perspective, we need to take the peace negotiations, direct talks between ukraine and russia quite seriously. we should not dismiss them. all wars in the end and in some kind of peace deal. the sooner we reach a peace deal, the better for ukraine, so full support for negotiations. they have an helpful -- they have been helpful. let them do their job. we need to take it seriously. there probably has to be some compromise on the ukrainian side as well -- >> but there bombardment continues. the siege of mariupol continues,

so it is hard not to be skeptical if the talks can achieve anything. >> yes, but i covered conflicts and wars for almost 30 years of my professional life. we do not have the kind of ideal peace that comes from everyone coming down, sitting down at the table, takes out there notepads. you are really making a fair point. no, real peace comes out of the war. it comes from within the war. look at wars in yugoslavia, how croatia and serbia made peace -- through the force of arms. in the end, the countries made peace and this piece is lasting. it should not be tried to say this will be some kind of pristine peace deal, but everybody is horribly civilized

with each other and now all just sitting and upholding that. it will be messy. it is very necessary. >> let's take a look at russia's recent military operations and how they compare to ukraine, russia's entry into civil war in 2015 in syria helped turn the tide to all bashar's favor. in 1999, russian forces invaded chechnya and shifted to greater artillery and missile strikes and also cut off supply lights -- supply lines between cities. the capital was leveled in the fighting. 20 years earlier, the then soviet union invaded neighboring afghanistan in an attempt to reinforce the soviet regime in kabul. the soviets never sent enough soldiers to account for stiff

resistance by afghans and foreign fighters. let me come to you and ask you about, you know, the scale of russia's military involvement in ukraine compared to, first of all, the entire capacity of russian forces and compared to these recent conflicts, if it's syria or even going as far back as the afghanistan war. how has russia fared? what is different this time? >> this war in ukraine is perhaps more similar to soviet involvement in afghanistan and russia's wars in chechnya then compared to involvement in syria. it is similar to syria in the fact that they are leveling cities and committing serious atrocities against civilians, but it is different because syria did not have such major ground campaigns from the russian forces. afghanistan and chechnya were long winding wars against

insurgencies, eventually, that lasted for years and a major drain from moscow's forces. this is something that while still very early in ukraine's wars is only in its fourth week. indications point to this being something that could stretch on for a long time. we have already seen that russia's forces are inadequate for what they are trying to accomplish in ukraine. that is why syria is sending something like what he thousand troops to assist them. russia is trying to leave belarusian forces into joining them. they are asking for ammunition and food. the food they sent soldiers into war with, some of it expired decades ago. we know russians were holy unprepared -- holy -- wholly unprepared. i think they were expecting something like when the u.s.

withdrew from afghanistan and the taliban swept into power. unfortunately, that is not the reality. putin seriously miscalculated. >> do you agree? is russia repeating the same mistakes it did in past operations? >> yes and no. i think first thing, it is too early to dismiss a russian army and russian firepower. i have been to afghanistan, to homes -- two homs -- to homs and talk to people who actually lived through the war's. to some extent, they were all quite different. the war in chechnya was a

horribly miscalculated operation, but remember, the russian army at that time was a conscript army, and they sent into battlefield a lot of completely unexperienced and unwilling conscript. there was also big opposition within russia to the campaign, so in that situation, they could not really send ground troops, so the only available tactic was to bomb from the air. russia's involvement in aleppo only toward the end of 2016 when the war was already raging for four years and there were multiple actors. >> so a lot of differences, you say. the tactic used in syria, you say, was to encircle and besiege

rebel-held areas and pound them from the air and from artillery boundaries and in the end exhaust, really, the defenders and innocent civilians who had managed to escape. this is not quite what we are seeing yet in ukraine, but if it is the case, how long will ukrainians be able to hold on? >> as long as necessary. again, if we imagine even worst case scenario -- it is difficult for me to imagine surrender, but we will continue fighting, you know? there's no question about it. there is a decisiveness of people. there were recent polls held in ukraine, 90% supporting the government, 85% is going to take arms to defend the country. in 10 years war in afghanistan,

the soviet union lost 15,000 soldiers -- 15,000, ok? now according to ukrainian officials, -- ukrainian official statistics, russia is the same. maybe ukrainian statistics is a little bit higher. americans are talking about 7000 soldiers killed, russian soldiers, at minimum. but you can compare, 15,000 for 10 years in afghanistan and let's take 7000 in three weeks, and these -- this 7000 is more than the u.s. lost in afghanistan for 20 years, so the losses which russia has felt are

incredible. russia never had such losses on the ground. >> ok, so these statistics, of course, would be denied by russia. let me ask all three of you one last round of questions -- >> everything is denied by russia. russia is not waging the war against ukraine and russia is not targeting civilians. propaganda. >> let me ask you a final round of questions to each of you. let me start with you, doug. what are the possible scenarios for the outcome of the battle? will russia be able to gain full control of ukraine? >> i think there's two options that could really happen. first, putin, if he was smart, he would recognize that there is no political victory to be had in ukraine. the ukrainians are more motivated to win this war than russian soldiers are and are more willing to go farther than the russians. if he was wise and wanted to

preserve his rule, he would end this war, stop the killing, try to say to the world, you know what, you put these sanctions on russia and isolated us because of this war, and the war, lived these sanctions, let's bring companies back to russia and try to preserve his rule that way. unfortunately, i don't think that is what putin is going to do. >> i apologize for interrupting you. we are running out of time. what do you see as a possible outcome? >> for putin, this is not a war about ukraine. this is putin's confrontation with the west. it depends what kind of concessions the west is prepared to give him. if the west gives him something which will sort of satisfy him, then ukraine will be spared. if not, we are going to see a very bloody and very disruptive and possibly quite long campaign. it is a battle with the west.

>> thank you for that. you have the last word. how does this end? >> here, i totally disagree with my russian counterpart because it is not a war between russia and the west. it is not the result of confrontation. putin has this crazy idea to crush ukraine because without ukraine, he cannot restore some kind of soviet union. putin is saying that ukrainians do not exist as a separate nation, that ukrainian state is very frail, so he would like to crush ukraine, which we are going to defend. i think that at the end of the day, putin will be -- it will be necessary for him to withdraw. he cannot win this war. he cannot win it. >> thank you so much.

thank you for all your thoughts on this very interesting discussion program. thank you for joining us, and thank you for watching. you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. can, of course, join the conversation on twitter. thanks for watching. goodbye for now. ♪ ñ■?áaa)aaaa■ çwçwçwçwçwçwçwçwçwçw

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