♪ you are watching al jazeera. a reminder of our top stories. ukraine says more evidence of torture and execution are being found every day in cities near the capital. moscow insists the atrocities are fake. new video shows captured russian soldiers being killed. the footage shows a man in ukrainian army fatigues shooting

a man while the bodies of other suspected russian soldiers are nearby. foreign ministers will discuss the delivery of more weapons to ukraine when they beat in brussels. -- meet in brussels. >> we have seen no indication that putin is going to withdraw from ukraine. we have to be prepared for the long haul. we need to support ukraine, sustain the sanctions and strengthen our defenses and deterrence. because this can last for a long time and we need to be prepared for that. >> the u.s. has outlined more sanctions against russia, targeting two of putin's daughters. in other news, at least one is

killed after forces fired on protesters in suit on. -- suzanne. -- sudan. answer length does president refuses to resign amid economic crisis. the government coalition lost their majority and people have been protesting for weeks over prices of food and fuel. you can follow the stories on al jazeera.com. next is inside story. stay with us. ♪

>> who'll be the next president of france? emmanuel macron bids for re-election in the shadow of war in ukraine, but candidates from the far right and far left say he's out of touch with the french population. will the voters prove them right? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. i'm mohammad jim zhum. five years ago, emmanuel macron was a newcomer to french politics. he swept aside the traditional left-right political divide by forming a centrist party and becoming the youngest ever president. now the 44-year-old is the incumbent seeking re-election. sunday's first round of voting is happening in the shadow of russia's invasion of ukraine. macron held his only campaign rally last saturday outside paris. he promised to defend europe's

democracy while raising pensions and cutting corporate taxes. opinion polls suggest a repeat of when macron faced marine le pan in the second round. the far-right candidate has since toned down her previous statements against immigration. instead she's focused her campaign on the high cost of living. both are facing late challenge from the far left. we'll bring in our guests in a moment. first, natasha butler reports from lille. natasha: one of france's best-known politicians, a fiery orator and former trotskyist, the far-left party leader has spent years on the margins of french politics but melancho's fortunes are changing. opinion polls suggest he could make it to the second round of the presidential election. at a rally in lille he said if elected, he'd end inequality, fight climate change, and tackle the cost of living crisis. >> millions of french people are being strangled by the rising

cost of living and fuel prices. millions of french people. so the role of those who lead the nation is to fix this. natasha: his supporters say he's the antithesis of emmanuel macron, whom shawn once nicknamed the president of the rich. >> it's been a difficult five years for many people. so as far as i'm concerned, we can't re-elect emmanuel macron. >> melanchol embodies anti-capitalism, pro-workers' rights. we're sick of factories shutting in france. we want a strong europe, and he is the only one with answers. natasha: one of the main reasons that he is doing so well in this presidential election is because france's traditional left-wing socialist party is doing badly. for decades, the socialist party was a political force that created presidents, but the arrival of the centrist macron in 2017 and a shift among voters to the political right has left the socialist party in tatters, and its presidential candidate

and idalgo floundering in the polls. >> the socialist party still has local mayors, but on the national level, it has lost any appeal because it's lost a program, it's lost ideas, it lost the battle of ideas. and francois hollande's presidency is seen in its legacy as a moment of weakness in terms of ideas, in terms of proposals, in terms of also answers to the problems of globalization, of the changes in the society. natasha: with most parties on the left, including the greens, trailing in the polls, he is expected to reap the majority of left-wing votes. few people expect him to win the presidency, but making it past the first round could signal that france's left is ready for a revival. natasha butler, al jazeera. ♪

muhammad: all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. in paris, hamid sriet, a political commentator and researcher on french economic affairs. in san malo, jacques reynolds, a senior research fellow at the global policy institute and a specialist in economic and social policy. also in paris, jazin weber, a program coordinator with the german marshall fund of the u.s. paris office and an expert in european security issues. a warm welcome to you all, and thanks for joining us today on "inside story." jacques, let me start with you today. where do things stand in the election right now? opinion polls are suggesting a repeat of when president macron faced marine le pen in the second round. do you think that's what we're going to see happen? jacques: it looks like it, yeah. at this stage, it looks like it

macron was well in the lead when the war started. but marine le pen has risen in that space and the only other contender could be jean-luc melancon, who last time rose five points. in the last week he's around but -- he is around 15, 16, but i don't think he will be able to overtake marine le pen. so it looks like macron, le pen duel for the second round. but with a closer margin, a narrower margin than was expected only even two weeks ago. so that's the main point, is the rise and rise of marine le pen in the last couple of weeks. i can explain why that has happened at a later stage, but if you want, i can start now.

muhammad: jacques, i'll actually get back to you with a question on that in just a moment. jazin, let me ask you, how much has russia's invasion of ukraine upended president macron's plans for what he had hoped to accomplish in the first half of this year? and how much is the shadow of the conflict in ukraine looming over this election cycle? jazin: i will start with the first question. thank you very much for that. in this context, it is very important to know that france is currently holding the rotating presidency of the council of the european union. and when you are holding this function, or when you have this role, that means that you have kind of a coordinating role. it can give some ideas for what can be done on the european level. and when macron presented this program in december, it was clear that he wanted to put the focus on everything related to european sovereignty but also to economic recovery, as well as creating a feeling of belonging to europe.

and with the ukraine crisis, in terms of foreign policy, it was particularly the part on sovereignty that is becoming more and more important, so as you might know, since his speech in 2017, macron has always pitched the idea of european strategic autonomy. lately changed the wording to sovereignty, but the idea of this is basically that the eu itself is able to make its independent decisions based on its interests. and of course, where possible, in cooperation with partners. and over quite a long time, fellow europeans were kind of kind of wary of this concept, thought that it's kind of a hyper activism of macron. but then when the war in ukraine kicked in, other europeans painfully realized that this idea of having a europe that is kind of a bit more sovereign in terms of energy supply and then

defense and can really leverage its tools, yeah that this is maybe not the worst idea. and when we saw what europe has done, that is basically putting macron's concept of sovereignty into practice. so of course it was not only him who has achieved that, but yeah, that's a clear success. also knowing that macron is the only channel of communication that europe still has for russia . i will leave it here. muhammad: i'll get back to you on that point, actually, in a moment. let me ask you from your vantage point how the electorate is responding to what's going on in ukraine. i mention this because president macron has been heavily involved in trying to broker some type of diplomatic solution to the crisis in ukraine. he has been reaching out repeatedly to russian president putin, he's been shuttling around, trying to come up with some type of solution. is that something that's hurting him or helping him when it comes to voters and when it comes to this election?

>> when it comes to the voters, at the beginning of the ukrainian crisis macron has benefits of course during his election. but at the end of the day, the french voters will see if their salaries have increased or not. i think this is the main important point. we've seen empty presidency of the european union and we've seen as well the domination of the american leadership guidance in the european parliament. so french people are very, have been doubted by the presidency of macron and during his last five reigns of the french presidency. so i believe that the french people will not of course support this war about the russian invasion. but at the end of the day, they are very worried about the social situation and the economic situation.

they are suffering in france. we've never seen in france people, i've never seen personally in france people are going to bring the food from the bean in france in paris. so i live in the popular area which is arrogismo in france. and the economic and social situation is worse than before. muhammad: jacques, i want to pick up on the point you were starting to make in your last answer, which is the reasons for the sudden surge in the polls for marine le pen. so i want to ask you, first of all, what are some of the reasons for that? and secondly, the fact that marine le pen has softened some of her rhetoric around topics like islam and like euro skepticism, is that something that is helping her right now to win potential voters outside of her typical solid base? jacques: yes, indeed.

but the thing is that as hamid was mentioning, the people at first were very concerned about the war. and marine le pen lost some point because she's so pro-putin. she's a great putin supporter, has even reiterated recently that the best of life of france would be russia. but the fact is that people are now more concerned about the consequences of the war than the war. and the consequences on the cost of living, and the cost of living has been the hobby horse of marine le pen. in the last few months she's campaigned on that. she did not highlight her positions on race, and finish she suffered her image and concentrated on the cost for people who find it hard to make ends meet. and she has a lot of support among the working classes, a lot of extremist voters we can see, the working areas the walking parts of france like the north of france, she's very popular there.

and so she made a very good campaign, no big meetings, she traveled, stayed close to the people. and one factor which is very important is that eric zebu, with his radical positions, has made her look soft, look cuddly. she has a better image now. 46% of the french people thinks that she understands people like them. it used to be 22% in 2017. and now she's developed an image, the image of the woman next door who will look after, will be very helpful and look after your cats when you're away. and she's actually made a big deal of the fact that she loves cats. she's become the cat breeder. so she has a much softer imageg. but at the same time, and that's

my main concern is that her policies on which she hasn't been challenged much by the media and she has not taken part in many debates, policies are still hard. i think that marine le pen is a wolf in sheep's clothing and we can talk about the preseason immigration and europe and on the economy. they would be damaging for france, for france's economy and for france's standing in europe. i think it would be a victory of marine le pen. would it be more damaging, even. for the european union. muhammad: you heard jacques there talk about the opinion he was expressing was that a le pen presidency would be damaging for france's standing in europe. i want to ask you, what would a le pen presidency mean for europe? jazin: well le pen presidency would be very bad news for europe. that is for sure. maybe to start from a bit like an integration and institutional perspective, le pen has or had

until the brexit referendum actually always lobbied for a brexit and underlined that this would be a good idea. but her narrative has changed. what she's advocating for now is kind of leaving the eu but staying inside, because she says that she wants to reinstall the primacy of french and national law over eu law. so basically eu law would not even or would not anymore be applied in eu members or in france, which basically means you're just in a loose grouping of states that doesn't have any regulatory power. and that is also what makes the core of the european union union. from a broader perspective, this le pen victory would be very bad news for europe because any deeper integration project would immediately be ended or would just not be pursued. and particularly in the foreign and security policy, that would

be extremely complicated, because you always need unanimity among member states to pursue projects here. so if there is a french wait on anything the recent geopolitical awakening of the eu that we have just seen would have been a short momentum that would unfortunately only make it to history books. muhammad: hamid i want to ask you something that jacques was mentioning, he was saying that the candidacy of eric zamore essentially makes marine le pen look more relatable or perhaps more palatable to voters. eric zimmer is somebody who's twice been convicted for inciting racial or religious hatred. the fact that he is running is , that something that's normalized marine le pen for other voters, that's something that has made her perhaps more

palatable to other voters? jacques: exactly. it is true. she was normalized of course by the eric zimmer the candidate because he was more extremist of her so i believe that eric zimmer she was at the beginning of the campaign criticizing the posture of eric zimo saying that he is in a racist guy, islamophobic guy, she changed her speech about the integration of the french muslim people we know everybody knows how eric zumu criticized islam and on islamism. he was saying is removed that the french muslim people has to leave the faith and the religion . but i would like to come back to the point about pen and macron. they have the same economic program. they are both liberals. the only candidate who really proposed a social reform is johnny cuminosho who wants to of course increase the minimum salaries for the french people and he knows how french people

during the macron's presidency have been suffering considerably . i would like as well to raise a point about the yellow vest movement. the ideology of the yellowest movement in france is still there, is still in the sound and in the heart of the french people in france. i think the crisis is deeper than the french election. the fifth regime of the republic is now finished and that's why the democratic crisis has to be resolved in france. muhammad: jacques hamid just mentioned jean-luc melenchon and we heard in natasha butler's report earlier in the program that perhaps his political

fortunes may be changing. do you think that is the case and could he potentially make it to the second round? jacques: i think it's a bit difficult. last time he was very close to marine le pen becoming in third position but last time there were no green candidates and no communist candidate. they have voters of representing about 7%, 8%. obviously if they decided to vote for him, he would have a chance to come second but i doubt it. i would like to come back on the point of the climate in france at the moment. there is a kind of a democratic wariness. people say ok we have elections

but things don't change it's always more is the same thing . there's a desire on the part of people to overthrow the table to kick it. it's like at the time of brexit. he does not have the same policies but he is not a neoliberal. he is a social liberal. he advocates the social market economy but is not a neoliberal. he has made sure that he realizes that if he wins he has to earn votes on the left.

social members -- social measures go towards helping. france is not doing too badly compared to others. an energy -- in france energy prices rose by 4% and in the rest of the eu, it is higher. but we are one of the least equal countries in the eu. muhammad: i am sorry to interrupt but we are running out of time. you wrote a piece recently in which you said macron is the , most europhile president that france has perhaps ever seen and the quest for european strategic autonomy has characterized his foreign policy over the last five years. i know that you were talking

about some aspects of this in an earlier answer, but how much has president macron transformed the eu? jazin: if you asked me before covid, i would say not really. because the call for european strategic autonomy didn't resonate in his first years of presidency but everything changed with covid and the recovery plan when europeans basically discovered that they are completely dependent on supply chains and need to step up their own capacities and capabilities to deal with these challenges. from a foreign policy and defense policy perspective is particularly interesting is that his narrative of european strategic autonomy and strengthening european sovereignty has now made it into the language of the institutions . the mission president, president of the council, they are using

the wording and it shows there was a change in thinking on how the eu approaches global challenges. and also when you're looking at what was achieved in terms of new defense initiatives for example, i would say that emmanuel macron's track record is quite good. we now have a new rapid deployment force in the strategic compass, the strategic compass is a document which is kind of a strategic guideline that was just adopted in the end of march. and that is deeply characterized also by a french influence. so i would say he has transformed the eu in terms of methods and has given important impetus to the eu to see itself as a geopolitical actor and now europeans are working differently together.

muhammad: i want to ask you about the fact that macron swept aside the traditional left-right political divide when it comes to french politics by forming this centrist party. is that something that has completely remade french politics? >> i think he is out of touch. we've seen his old policies in france during his presidency but a portion of the french people won't vote. they have been deceived by his presidency and that increases the democratic crisis in france i'm worried about the political situation on political map in france. this is a big warning for the french elites and if macron

doesn't take the social problems in france seriously and resolve the protestation of the yellow vests, his presidency will be a disaster on the french economy and that political situation will be unstable. muhammad: we have run out of time and have to leave the conversation there. thank you to all of our guests. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website aljazeera.com and for further discussion go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. from all of us bye for now. ,♪

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