04/21/22 04/21/22 [captioning made possible by democracy now!] amy: from new york, this is democracy now! franco weapons and ammunition are flying in daily. our lights is -- how important our alliances are across the world. amy: the united states and its allies are preparing to send her weapons to kyiv as fighting with russia continues along a 300-mile front line in eastern ukraine.

we will speak with a roof -- ukrainian socialist as well as a former member of the donbas and we talk to tony wood, author of author of "russia without putin: money, power and the myths of the new cold war." >> war is likely to continue for some time unless a breakthrough in peace notiation whe it would be great if that happens, i'm not optimistic about it happening anytime soo i think could see weeks, if not months more of this war, this time focused in the donbas. amy: all that and more, coming up. welcome to democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman. russian president vladimir putin declared victory in mariupol after russian forces laid siege to the southern ukrainian city for nearly two months. putin's claim of liberation from

variable came as fighters and civilians pulled up and a massive s steel factory complex. a marine commander of the remaining forces made a desperate appeal for international help with an evacuation. >> this is our appeal to the world. this can be the last appeal of our lives. we are probably facing our last days, if not ours. all of us coming variable, battalion of soldiers, more than 500 wounded and unders of civilians including women and children, take us to safety in the third-party state. amy: russia had been considering storming the still complex, but for now has opted to blockade it. the governor of luhansk says fighting is continuing along a 300-mile front line. russia's military has test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering

nuclear warheads around the world. on wednesday, president vladimir putin said a test of russia's sarmat missile had succeeded in hitting targets nearly 4000 miles from a launch site in northwestern russia. >> is truly unique weapon will strike in the combat potential of our armed forces, reliably ensure russia's security from external threats, and provide food for thought for those who in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric try to threaten our country. amy: we'll have more on russia's missile test and the warn ukraine after headlines. german officials have pledged to stop importing oil from russia by the end of the year. germany's foreign minister anna lena baerbock of the green party made the pledge during a visit to latvia wednesday. >> phasing out fossil fuels is a double security factor also apart from the russian threat,

it is clear we will only be able to create sustainable security and peace worldwide if we also take resolute joint action against the climate crisis. this includes becoming co2 have a neutral in europe as quickly as possible. amy: russia receives about $1 billion a day from germany and other e.u. members from sales of coal, oil, and gas. israeli warplanes bombed the gaza strip overnight, targeting what israel said was an underground weapons factory. it was the second night of airstrikes on the besieged palestinian territory this week. the assault came after palestinian militants in gaza launched a barrage of rockets at southern israel. many of them appeared to be intercepted by israel's iron dome anti-missile system, though one rocket caused slight damage to a home in the israeli city of sderot. meanwhile, in occupied east jerusalem, at least 20 palestinians were injured today as israeli soldiers fired stun grenades, rubber bullets, and pepper spray to clear

worshippers from the al-aqsa mosque after dawn prayers. this follows a similar crackdown last friday that saw hundreds of palestinians arrested and over 150 injured. on wednesday evening, israeli police in jerusalem blocked a march of more than 1000 israeli ultra-nationalist protesters from reaching the old city's muslim quarter as they waved israeli flags and shouted, "death to arabs." nicaragua's parliament has voted to shut down 25 nongovernmental organizations targeting groups that have criticized nicaraguan president daniel ortega. groups banned include the nicaraguan permanent human rights commission. this is the group's executive secretary marcos carmona. >> we regret this government is silencing the nicaraguan permanent commission on human rights. we know they are affecting not only our institutions, but all people in nicaragua. we are the only institution that document of the arbitrary abuses

committed by different agencies in the state and by government officials. amy: another group ordered closed in nicaragua was the luisa mercado foundation which is run by sergio ramírez mercado, the acclaimed nicaraguan wrir who seed as vice president under ortega from 1985 to 1990. the ortega administratn has accused many of the organizations of accepting foreign funding and being involved in efforts to destabilize the nicaraguan government. here in the united states, the justice department says it will appeal a federal judge's ruling that struck down a mask mandate on public transportation. monday's decision by u.s. district judge kathryn kimball mizelle in florida, a trump appointee, voided the mask mandate for the entire nation. the american bar association gave her a rating of not qualified. the judge's ruling blindsided

biden administration officials even as they were considering allowing the public transit mask mandate to expire in may. in a statement, the centers for disease control said it was well within its legal authority to protect public health when it ordered the mandate. the cdc added -- "when people wear a well-fitting mask or respirator over their nose and mouth in indoor travel or public transportation settings, they protect themselves and those around them, including those who are immunocompromised or not yet vaccine-eligible." the white house has finalized a rule change to the national environmental policy act that restores several key provisions to the landmark 1970 law. the trump administration gutted environmental and community safeguards under the act in 2020 when it moved to speed up the approval process for major infrastructure projects, while exempting some projects from environmental review entirely. in more climate news, a wildfire burning north of flagstaff,

arizona, exploded in size wednesday to more than 20,000 acres, fanned by high winds and fueled by dry grasand brush. ariza and other western states are suffering an unprecedented megadrought brought on by the climatemergenc 11 large wildfires are currently burning across the southwest and utrn plai, with some 8 million u.s. residents under fire alerts today. "the military times" is reporting the pentagon is moving forward on a plan to build and test portable micro nuclear reactors to power military bases overseas and in remote areas in the u.s. despite warnings about high risks involved. in 2018, the army published a list of possible sites where the micro nuclear reactors could be deployed. sites named included guantanamo bay, diego garcia, guam, fort buchanan in puerto rico, and bagram air base in afghanistan. texas and tennessee are both

preparing to execute their oldest prisoners on death row today. in texas, 78-year-old carl buntion is scheduled to be killed just a week after he had to be rushed to a hospital due to chest pains. longtime death penalty critic sister helen prejean has called for texas to halt the execution. in a tweet, she wrote -- "carl can barely walk and has been diagnosed with vertigo, arthritis, and other chronic illnesses. what does this execution have to do with public safety?" meanwhile, the state of tennessee is scheduled to execute 72-year-old oscar franklin smith today. in ohio, an intensive care unit doctor accused of killing 14 patients has been found not guilty by jury on all counts. prosecutors accused the doctor of murdering 14 patients by giving them excessive doses of the powerful synthetic painkiller fentanyl. his defense team argued he was attempting to give comfort to critically ill patients in

severe pain. he still faces 10 civil lawsuits filed by families of his former patients. florida's republican-led senate has voted to eliminate walt disney world's self-governing status. the move is widely seen as retaliation by governor ron desantis and his allies over disney's opposition to florida's so-called "don't say gay" law. in other news from florida, the republican-led state senate has approved a new congressional map that critics say is designed to curtail black political power in the state. florida state senator shevrin jones criticized the redistricting plan. >> i'm not going to call what you're doing a culture war anymore, it is a racist tactic that you are doing and you know what you're doing. amy: and in georgia, a majority of workers at an apple store in atlanta have filed a petition for a union election.

if they vote to join the communications workers of america, the workers will form the first union at an apple retail store in the united states. union organizers say apple employee pay has failed to keep up with inflation, and apple's soaring profits, in recent years. and those are some of the headlines. this is democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman, joined remotely by my co-host nermeen shaikh. hi, nermeen. nermeen:i, amy. welcome to all of our listeners and viewers from around the country and around the world. amy: russian president vladimir putin has ordered a blockade of a massive steel complex in the southeastern ukrainian city of mariupol where thousands of ukrainians are holed up, including civilians and fighters with two regiments -- the 36th marine brigade and the far-right azov brigade. russia had been considering storming the complex but for now has opted to blockade it. this comes as putin claims that

russia has "liberated" the rest of the city, which has been devastated i weeks of attacks. in eastern ukraine, fighting is continuing along a 300-mile front line. the governor of luhansk says russia now controls 80% of the region. luhansk is one of two regions that make up the donbas in eastern ukraine. the united states and its allies are continuing to funnel weapons to ukraine. on wednesday, president biden met with u.s. military leaders at the white house. pres. biden: weapons and ammunition are flown in daily. we are seeing just how vital our lives -- our alliances and partnerships are around the world. amy: in other developments, the prime ministers of spain and denmark are in kyiv today for talks with ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy. meanwhilem human rights watch has released a report accusing russia of committing war crimes in bucha, a suburb of kyiv. the group said it found extensive evidence of summary

executions, forced disappearances, and torture. we are joined now by denis pilash. he is a ukrainian political scientist and historian. member of the ukrainian democratic socialist organization sotsialnyi rukh, or the social movement. he is also an editor at "commons: journal of social criticism." welcome to democracy now! it is great to have you with us. if you can start off by talking about the resistance in ukraine? we hear a lot about the military resistance, but if you can talk about overall, the kind of resistance that does not get coverage? >> uaine, not just military resistance, though hundre of thousands of people have volunteered to either the armed foes or the defense units, but those -- due to means of people

who are engaged in this humanitarian effort and keepi things running. for instance, essential workers, railroad workers, employees of the state companies, really wrote job by evacuating millions of people fleeing from the most dangerou regions to the safer ones. dozens of them have been killed and many killed while performing their duties. the same applies to health care workers for nurses, and doctors, who are risking their own lives to save others. russia is targeting hospitals as well. so many of these people are killed as well. in general, we have the spontaneousetworks of solidarity that emerged in

different regions and cities throughout the country who helped the people who had to relocate. and those who helped with humanitarian aid, medicine, food, and so on. altogether, this constitutes the back of the ukrainian resistance. nermeen: i want to ask about just yesterday we reported it in her introduction, the release of this human rights watch report on war crimes in blue-chip. you had said in march, months ago, that putin's war crimes are following in the footsteps of the war crimes committed by governments like united states. but since these massacres i bucha, you said the correct analogy now might be to watch indonesia following the occupation of east timor are what pakistan did in -- uzbekistan did to east pakistan from another angle --, in the

war in 1971. could you elaborate on that? what do you see as the -- how the war has changed since march and why you think these situations are now more accurate? >> is really the same crime that by numerous other governments and other imperialists as well. in this case, putin's war in ukraine or his wars in chechnya or yeltsin's war in chechnya or in the same eyes as bush and blair in attacking iraq. intensity was revealed with the horrible pictures from bucha another key suburbs. they show us all scale of atrocities srting from sexual

violence, fr torture and mass execions. here we also see some kind of ideological explanation by some of the russian propaganda machine that ukraine in a way has to be cleansed. this leads us to this analogy, not just -- what happened in the wars in yugoslavia in the 1990's, but what happened, for instance, occupied east timor and unleashed acts of genocide against the local population i the 19th of a niece. see in some places, the reality of this occupation is so brutal thatt leads to obliteration of human lives. nermeen: do you support the

continuedupply of weapons to ukraine, which is exponentially increasing now despite the fact that many say supplying these weapons will only prolong the war? >> uc, let making analogies,o they supplying soviet and chinese weapons to vietnam, they also prolong the war, but it was still unilateral oression done by an imperialiower. in that case, the u.s. in this case, russia. in order to preserve human lives , airstrikes and shelling, civilians are dying massively throughout country. actually, no place and at the country can be really safe of objects, including civilian objects, schools, hospitals have been hit in many parts.

for instance, having antiaircraft weaponry, it really preserves these people who are hiding in theirasemen a so on. but in a way, the supplies -- we also have to remember that russia also used to be supplied with western weapons from germany, france, and other countries. even now, it is still fueled by the payments for the russiaoil and gas, so it can be centered more around german parts d russian tanks and american munition and arms. but in general, we need to oversee theseilitary resistance tt is needed, that it will go to ukrainians.

it is not just used as a pretext of increasing nilla trade show complex and other western countries. -- military-industrial complex and other western countries. it is really up to the people on the ground come up to the people in ukrainian resistance who need this, not -- that have to be preserved. amy: let me ask about the asov battalion. the u.s. has ruled that weapons cannot go to them, but with the massive influx of weapons, there is no way they can be traced to wear. you have been a fierce critic of the far right in ukraine. what are your thoughts on this? also, a fierce critic of the expansion of nato and now you have sweden, finland say no to

joint nato -- although, it looks like one of the reasons for this invasion, ukraine being a part of nato was actually not a possibility. for years to come. >>t wajust a pretext. it was broht along by the russian propaganda. the main promoter of nato was vladimir putin himself actually pushed -- for instance, only mp and the russian parliament voted -- annexation of crimea, this ll lead to -- now he's doing the same with finland and sweden. regardingasov, a regiment in the national guard of ukraine, well, it is just one unit in the general resistance, i think

really up to half a million people who are engaged either in the army or the territorial defense units. most of which are located in the mariupol cities, live through a really brutal siege and the atrocities when they are revealed, maybe they compared to those in kyiv. in reality, now this group constitutes a tiny fraction in the general ukrainian military resistance. i don't think it is so important in terms of -- compared with the rest of the military and national guard and so on.

another in the context of its political influence. the far right in ukraine never was really popular other charlie and never had mass social base for it. nermeen: i would like you to elaborate on a point you made about this in another recent interview on the asov regiment. he said, "just as our understanding of the corruption of the administration of the far right nature of hamas should not be an obstacle to hearing the plight of the palestinians, so should the presence of the right wing in ukraine not be a way of not listening to the plight of ukrainians." could you elaborate on that, how you see the two situations at allnalogous? >> any alogy can be still be

far away, but at the core of the situation is you need to really address people from below the grassroots, you need to hear the plight of men and women who a suffering and are struggling in most cas. using all this, invoking -- exists in every context, it is just a pretext for remaining, you know, trying toemain neutral. but as the late desmond tutu said, when you're neutral in conflict between an oppressor and the oppressed, you're actually pying on e side of th oppressor. i think so much attention has been attributed to the faright

in ukraine and actually we lost also the far right on the oers of the war and actually we lost a moment when, like, can address the russis the other just shows how the russian regime ia became more and more -- it was becoming an open far right dictorship and this war is a massive staffot just a sitting duck, the nationalist feelings throughout eastern europe and other countries, but rst of all, itas boosting the ultranationalist sentiment in russia and booing the repressive apparatus in russia and it was spressing any kind of -- aost wiping out antiwar protests.

again, the big problem here is that we have a list power that is -- imperialist power that is run by far right regime not just in terms of the ideology and other fascist thinkers, but in terms of its practice, what it has already done not just in ukraine, but many other places in the soviet space -- which it regards, for instance, latin american region that is in its backyard. it does the same to the neighboring countries in the case of russia. amy: ♪♪ [music break] denis pilash, you been fiercely critical of russian oligarchs. you have also talked about the involvement of the ukrainian elite. if you can talk about who they are and their significance today and if you're views have changed? >> actually, the russian and

ukrainian elites,ligarch capitalist, they came from the same source so they were the result of the capitist in t 1990's. mostly criminal manner, the richest of the countries and actuallydevastated their own citizens, to become part of the global ruling class, slight differences is, obviously, in russia, the presence of security services people a also more bureaucric layers. it is stronger but still preserving the interest of russian catal. in the case of ukraine, you have

competing oligarchs that tried not just to control the economy but also to influence and contro political decisions in the country and who are still playing the same and also have shown their concept toward their own citizens -- not jusby man ofhem had lead prior to the invasion -- fleed prior to the invasion, but they continue this looting of the country and they tried to store as the russian elites, to store what was stolen from their people. this is why when we speak about, for instance, seizing the assets of oligarchs crt russians or ukrainians, also need to address the issue of thoffer capitalism, where the majority of the oligarch elite used them

to prevent not just paying taxes, but also to prevent -- to see how they were exploiting the countries. nermeen: could you explain, do you think this oligarchal class in either ukraine or russia is benefiting from this war, and who are the beneficiaries of this war ayou see it? >> actually, this war has gotte so sensational that iteems -- so irrational at it seems t gains can be won by some elites. there really nothing compared to destruction -- it is transcendent beyond real rationales, some real rational

situation. but in any case of war or other harsh situation, it is like the shock doctrine. the ruling class grabs its opportunity to curtail the rights and freedoms of the masses as much as they can, and also to make their powers stronger. obviously, it washe case with russia, then russian particle power has become even more ntralized. these peoe who were in power like putinnd his cronies in power for 20 yea and bng unchecked and having no feedck, no democratic procedures from below, and in ukraine we also see, for instance, ou leader of the mp, just today they tried to pass a

lawhat will make easier to lay off wkers, to curtail the labor rights. the same people whare not essential f ukraine, their rights have been attacked and are ing attacked by e elites who use the situation of the war maybe for reducing the space of the rights of workers and of unions. i think almost any war we see today, this one is no exception. nermeen: finally, what do you see as a possible conclusion of this war? what kind of concessions what ukraine have to make? e those likely or desirable? how will this end? >> it isard to predict.

another point for having armaments to ukraine is to make thisnalogy with the people who are involved in trade unions organizing. i know to negotiate with the bs who is songer than you, you also need to he me power. it seems now russia is still pushing for some kind o desperate having the opportunity to grab a bigger chance with ukraine and probably to grab a bigger part of eastern ukraine. it isn't at this point willg to have clear and equal negotiation with the ukrainian si this is why we so definitely needo have russia at the table to sit and really negotiate real

cease fire and not what was de previously with u.n. opening hunitarian corridors, endangered by russian fire. but we also have seen russia -- russian mitary has been quite efficient for ny ways and their expectations -- they failed. they are still goingo prevent some kind of -- present some kind of victory to the population and for the propaganda as well. but it seems really e many possible outcomes. some of th are really terrible. but with having enoh international solidarity, that means also pushing through a

broader region what has to be done to help ukraine. it is not just humanitarian, military aid, or helping the regees. it is also the installaon of ukrainian -- e issue o preserving a framework for the recovery of the country in a more socially just and conclusive way. it also means to envision socialist alternative to exting neoliberal capitalism that will exclude such fossil fuel autratic empires as modern russia or modern saudi arabia are. also to democratize the international order not to resort to displaying grand

powers, views the world as test some playground for redistributing -- but to rlly give voice and empower smaller couries and eir people to really stop this domination of imperlist powers like the u.s., russia, china, and you can continue theist. we need a more complex vision for the futuren order to not just stop this war, but prevent further ones. amy: thank you, denis pilash, for joining us, scientist, historian, member of the ukrainian democratic socialist organization sotsialnyi rukh, the social movement, a leftist party created by the working people of ukraine, and an editor at "commons: journal of social criticism." speaking to us from western

ukraine. next up, we speak with tony wood , author of "russia without putin: money, power and the myths of the new cold war." stay with us. ♪♪ [music break]

amy: "it will be spring" by the ukrainian singer and songwriter max barskih. this is democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman with nermeen shaikh. we turn now to russia, where we look at the impact of president putin's invasion of ukraine now in its eighth week. on wednesday, the u.s. launched another round sanctions and the u.s. state department is reportedly considering whether to recognize russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. as the russian military pushes for a victory in eastern and southern ukraine, tin has ma repeated warnings against the u.s. and other countries supplying ukraine's army with weapons. on wednesday, putin appeared on russian television to announce the launch of a new intercontinental ballistic missile system, capable of

delivering nuclear warheads around the world. >> this truly unique weapon will strengthen the combat potential of our arm forces, reliably ensure russia's security from external threats, and provide food for thought for those who in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric try to threaten our country. amy: this comes as thousands of russians are reportedly fleeing the country amid the kremlin's crackdown on protests against the war in ukraine, as well as on media outlets that report on the opposition, and a new law that prohibits the "discrediting the russian armed forces." for more, we are joined by tony wood, member of the editorial board of the new left review, where his recent piece is headlined "matrix of war" and looks at how the present conflict developed, and the possible scenarios that lie ahead. he is the author of "russia without putin: money, power and the myths of the new cold war." welcome back to democracy now! this invasion has been a catastrophe for ukraine.

you also point out this has been suicidal for russia. you are shocked by what putin did. can you talk about why you believe he did it and the response of the russian people? >> thank you for having me back on the show. you are right, the main focus is the catastrophe this war has been for the ukrainian people. in terms of why putin decided to launch this invasion, did catch many analysts off guard. i think partly the scale of it, the level of aggression, but also the initial war aims which involved toppling the ukrainian government and installing a puppet regime. the so-called denazification, this idea that ukraine is ruled by far right -- this needed to be overthrown. this was, frankly, delusiol

set of war aims. the question is whether catastrophic intelligence failure in the russian leadership they thought they could pull this off. here it bears repeating that 2004, the russian-backed canada rigged election in ukraine, a source of populaprotest that resulted in fresh, were transparent elections that produce the pro-western leader. just to bear in mind, eckstein years ago, russia cannot help rig an election in ukraine and here we are in 2022 with the russian government seemingly thinking they can impose a puppet government. the shock was not just the fact the war itself, but the scope and the character perfectly, delusional war aim. what we're saying now with the turn of russian forces to the donbas and a much more conventional land war in the donbas is much more like the war that has already been happening in ukraine since 2014. but on a much larger scale and much more destructive scale. and

looks sadly much more like what one might've expected from the true buildup in earlier this year. in terms of the motivation for launching it, i think there's a complex of different things here. the layering of thinking in the russian elite. not just putin who thinks this, but the kind of thinking is quite widespread. there is the issue of nato expansion, and we could talk more on the nature of that in russn calculation, but also the fact ukrainian sovereignty that the russian leadership, again, not just putin, has found hard to digest and to respect. and that is something there came to curtail, limit, and the fact sovereign ukraine by two silly -- choose to leave in a western direction. the timing is also somewhat mysterious because i don't the -- again, so much to be lost from the russian -- there was so

much to be lost by carrying out this act of aggression. something about it still does not hold together rationally. amy: give said in the last decade or so, the eternal divisions within ukraine have been turned into a zero-sum battle between rival geopolitical interest. could you explain what you mean by that? >> certainly. probably speaking since ukraine gave dependence in the early 1990's, trying to balance between two rival power blocs. what is with russia and one was a combination of nato and the eu. both of these projects -- the russian project was weaker. it had nothing to offer in the 1990's. after 2000's, russia had more of an ambition to reassert its influence in neighboring states, what it called the --

by 2010, russia had a regional economic integration. it wanted ukraine to be a key element in the broader regional economic strategy, if you like, kind of power block against the e.u.. on the others, have the e.u. which is very large-scale not just an economic project, fairly profound engineering of society commit legal structures, regulatory regimes, and to them, the e.u. integration process does involve a military component. it does involve coordination and military. on top of that, have nato which is the u.s.-led european security architecture and a lot of eastern european states -- seeking security guarantees. for a time in the 1990's and early 2000'sm ukraine would balance between the student was not forced into a choice between

them. it was constitutionally neutral. it was not allowed to have foreign military bases on his territory. that was an arrangement that probably worked but increasingly after the 2000's, certainly in the 2010's, there was a choice that you had to actually choose between the two. eu integration was not compatible with continuing ties with russia and certainly you could not choose to balance between these two security architectures as far as section of ukraine was concerned. there was a risk, so they pushed hard for nato membership. until relatively recently, nato membership did not have majority support in the ukrainian population. to echo what your previous guests said, putin has been the best recruiting sergeant not just in ukraine, but eastern europe. nermeen: do you think, tony,

that fact also corroborates what our previous guest said, namely, nato was simply a pretext for this war and other observers suggested this -- that the scale and irrationality, as you said, of the russian invasion is simply the last gasp of a collapsing empire? >> i think in is an important pretext, but i think in a way, there is an effort to separate nato from what is happening in order to describe russian actions purely from the russian side. i think that is not how geopolitics works, unfortunately. russia's act of aggression is very much its own responsibility and will have to bear that criminal responsibility for decades to come. but these decisions are not made in a vacuum. the question of nato expansion is necessarily part of the context.

in terms of assigning blame, it is very clearly the blame l ies with russia. the analogy i often make is with world war i, and a very narrow sense, germany invaded belgium and that was the cause of the war. but if we extract all of the great power rivalries that lead up to world war i, arms buildup, the tensions over the -- if we extract that, we have zero understanding of how it actually took place. i think nato does need to be factor in here. and the question there, in a sense, it is not answerable. people are not clear that nato is just a pretext and did not have any real bearing on how the public came about. the question really becomes, why was nato expansion so unquestionably necessary? why was it necessary to overturn ukraine's neutral status? i think nato is relevant to this because it supplied a pretext

for russia, if you like. why create that pretext? why not remove the pretext and then you can have a different out of conversations about russian imperialism and russian power projection abroad? amy: your book is "russia without putin." do you think this invasion could lead to that? and you have described what could happen next as this long war of attrition. what about the alternative? what do you think could be a cease fire, and outcome in terms of ukraine preserving its territorial integrity, what will happen in the donbas and crimea as well? >> those are two large questions but i will try and get to them as quickly as i can. in terms of the future

scenarios, i think, unfortunately, a war of attrition of some kind -- again, very much different from world war i because of the sheer destructive power available certainly to the russian army -- i think something like that is likely under the coming weeks. the problem here is the wars have a tendency to create their own dynamics perpetuate themselves. at some point, becomes especially after the atrocities you were discussing earlier in the show, it is going to become hard within ukraine to make a moral case for peace. i think understandably, people are not what to be ready to make any kind of negotiation, let alone any concessions coming to russia at this point. the offramp from either side. initially, there were these negotiations that seem to lay out the terms of potential settlement. i think that has shifted. one of the reasons for that i think is in a way, the severity

and coordinate your of the -- nature of the u.s.-led response to russia come the scale of sanctions, economic impact on russia, has really backed the russian elite into a corner where they really have nothing else to lose. the destructive impact on the russian economy has already proven they try to shield themselves any way they can. it really, they don't have a massive incentive now not to pursue some kind of military victory or something they can call a victory before pursuing a peace settlement. this goes back to your first question, what is the likely outcome in russia? sadly, i do not think a substantive change in the nature of the russian regime is likely. i think this is partly back to the nature of sanctions in general. certainly come the sections but sanctions in general. they don't really work. they have often the reverse effect intended.

there will often consolidate the national population around the leadership of patriotic grounds, and that is what has been happening. importantly, they consolidate the elite around the leadership. this was already the case in 2014. i think there is a misunderstanding in the west of the impact of the sections. the idea in 2022 you could impose sanctions that would somehow split the russian elite from putin and lee to a palace coup. this is paul's. the sanctions are not going to split them off, they will rally them even further. that elite has a much less of a reason to back down. we see this on a some reports of russians who have fled the country in order to escape the climate of repression that is building there. several have had to go back to russia because the effect of the sanctions cut them off from

access to any of their finances. they cannot get jobs. all of these things that in a way what we are saying with the sanctions is kind of cutting off russia from the rest of the world in a way that makes it much more likely they will turn it even further in the nationalist direction. it is difficult to see what to do. but my broader anxiety here is in responding to the very immediate emergency of war, there is less of a focus on war could produce a peace. my worry is that is harder to see as time goes on. that is why i think the war will continue. amy: tony wood, thank you for being with us, member of the editorial board of the new left review. we will link to "matrix of war." as well as "russia without putin: money, power and the myths of the new cold war." ♪♪ [music break]

amy: "questions in a world of blue" by michael wollny. this is democracy now! i'm amy goodman with nermeen shaikh. in eastern ukraine, fighting is continuing along a 300 mile front line. the governor of luhansk says russia now controls 80% of the region. hansk was one of two regions that make up the donbas and eastern ukraine. for more, we go to brian milakovsky, an expert in economic recovery in eastern ukraine who is also helping raise funds for evacuations from donbas. he is joining us from croatia. until january, he lived in the donbas. welcome to democracy now!

can you talk about conditions on -- there, the strategic importance of this area? and what were of attrition means in the donbas? >> thank you for having me. conditions are really horrifying. looking through my smartphone what is going on in the city where i have been living the last six yearshere i was married, started a family, and have been working, the to break capital of luhansk while luhansk has been under russian control since 2014 stub looking for my smartphone what is happening, it really looks like a post-apocalyptic video. it is horrifying that these kinds of conditions are possible to reach, especially in such a short time. i think many people have seen variable has basically been turned to a charter ruin. places like donetsk burnet

earlier stage but virtually every one of these classic blocs is scored by multiple direct goods. there's almost not a single public object in the city that i was living in that has not been severely damaged. the strategic value of a place ke donetsk, if we were to compare it to mariupol, located along the seacoast where between russia and the occupied crimean peninsula, mariupol really has strategic certain amount of value as part of russia's invasion. i really think seizing places like severodonetsk another large eastern city the government controls is really primarily symbolic for putin and russia. it is this belief they have, fanatical belief the east really

must be a part of russia and that is what is so horrifying, that they were leveling these cities without aid, the bases of support they thought was there. they thought is russians and ukrainians say, with bread and salt. they leveling these cities in order to forcibly take them away and then it is not really clear for what purpose except boy string their own -- bolstering their own narrive. they will not have the resources at all matter su content sanctions and oil embargoes. those of us who are living in the east really prayed even with the destruction that remains under ukrainian control. nermeen: could you talk about the situation in donbas since 2014? it has hurley been a peaceful place according to the u.n.,

14,000 people have been killed by both sides. >> about 3500 civilians. we need to remember what a told there was on civilians in the region. i only lived and worked under the government-controlled areas. often forgotten that 60% of donbas remains until this war began under the control of the ukrainian government. it took an enormous socioeconomic below in 2014, every commercial relation, value chains, and severed personal and family ties. it was an enormous tragedy to see the region cut in two when russia launched its separatist project. that led to donetsk luhansk and luhansk and other major cities coming under separatist control. in the last seven to eight years, there was a reasonable

recovery. i have been working in humanitarian development during that time. there was decentralization by the ukrainian government led to significant improvement, actually, the quality of urban spaces in these plac. there s a diversification in the business community end end in markets that were working on, slow but precious recovery, which is the liberated by

watch because it was so important that a part of the donbas under government control was stabilizing and you can see the framework of a pretty good economic future slowly being built there after the shock of 2014. we are seeing that the obliterated. amy: brian, we will do part two and post it at democracynow.org. very quickly, if you can talk about the civilian-let effort of evacuation that you're helping to lead right now from the donbas?

>> bring ukrainian volunteers are getting dozens of people out and his school buses, deliveries, and compact cars. it is entirely civilian-led intervention, volunteer-lead. no big organizations involved. more than a thousand people so far, mostly -- people interested in can find out more about how i gather donations for that on my facebook page. this is work thing done by extraordinary volunteers who gain experience in 2014. amy: we want to thank you for being with us, brian milakovsky, who until january lived in severodonetsk, ukraine. that is in the donbas, helping raise funds for evacuations now from the donbas. that does it for our show. democracy now! has an immediate opening for a news writer producer. ñçñqñqñqñqññññ#ñ#wwñ?ñ? cwñçñqñqe