♪ host: john fore-check on top stories, a ukrainian commander has issued an urgent call for heavy weapons as the russian military tries to take the city of mariupol'. tens of thousands of people remain trapped there. ukrainian resident volodymyr zelenskyy says forces defending variable need -- variable -- mariupol need support.

-- >> the second way is diplomatic. whatever public signals they make that they are open to make exchanges, they continued to play their own games. host: the eu councile president says russia must be held accountable for crimes. he is in kyiv. >> these are atrocities, these are war crimes. it must be punished. it will be punished for what they have done in many of the cities and locations in ukraine, and right now i say to the people, the citizens in the dundas, in -- donbas, in mariupol who were fighting for european values, or the freedom from democratic principles. host: russia says it has successfully tested a new

intercontinental ballistic missile. president vladimir putin says it provides -- for those who threaten russia. israel as hit targets in gaza for a second time this week. it says rockets were fired toward an israeli town. israel says it hit a military post in gaza. 2 contenders for the french presidency are taking apart in a tuesday debate. incumbent emmanuel macron and his far right challenger marine le pen discuss cost-of-living, the war in ukraine in the future of european living. you caples said -- u.k. polls suggest a tight race. the news continues after inside story. ♪

>> russia has begun a renewed offensive in eastern ukraine. many are calling it the battle for donbas, but what does this mean for the lecture conflict? what is the larger human cost. this is inside story. ♪ host: hello and welcome to the program. it has been nearly 2 months since russian forces invaded neighboring ukraine. the conflict has killed countless civilians and displaced millions. moscow says it is shifting its focus to the east in order to increase its assault in the donb

as region. the u.s. and canadian officials have promised to send new weapons. officials say it could lead to the breakup of ukraine. this update. correspondent: what russia refuses to call the war as entered its second phase, and it is being dubbed the battle for donbas. >> this operation in the east of ukraine is aimed to [indiscernible] , and the separation will continue. under the stage is beginning -- another stage is beginning correspondent: ukrainians caught up in the fighting are forced to flee as russian force pummel cities and towns. ukraine's president said russia will not be successful. >> the intensity of fire by

russian troops in the kharkiv direction and in another region as increased significantly, the same as before. they consider ordinary residential housing to be normal military targets. the russian army will forever inscribe itself it world history is perhaps the most barbaric and inhumane army in the world. correspondent: ukraine says a second ultimatum issued by ukrainian forces in mariupol to surrender has passed. moscow says the lives of soldiers will be spared as they cease senseless resistance. >> the united states and western countries are doing everything to drag out this special operation as much as possible. the supply of foreign weapons clearly signaled the intention to provoke the kyiv regime to keep fighting until the less

ukrainian. >> we call body russia to stop to stop all illegal actions connected to its aggression in ukraine, and when it comes to the next round of sanctions, i think the eu highest representatives and representatives of member states are clear that we continue to work on further sanctions, and they will be announced. correspondent: so far calls for a cease-fire have not stop this war. although russia may have failed to take kyiv, the battle for the east is one russia cannot be seen to lose. ♪ host: let's bring in our guests. in kyiv we have a member of ukrainian parliament and secretary of the national presidential council. in moscow, a defense and

military analyst. in brussels, the director for the center of russia-europe-asia studies. i would like to start with you as the military analyst. what does this new stage in the wart mean? >> the change of emphasis that russia defined in the beginning of this campaign to advance at the same time in a number of different separate directions that did not work out very well. now it russian reserves and forces, which are not adequate for such a job and moving in all directions, will be concentrating in the particular area of the east-south ukraine to achieve apparently victory

there. now they began what has been officially announced. host: it was described as a do over, you feel a first time and try as a second time. is that what this is? failure for the initial aims, official recalibration, a new measure of success for what this means? >> in the first week, some victim pain. in the south russia achieved quite a lot. forces moved in different directions, captured a number of ukrainian cities without much resistance or no resistance at all. captured a bridge, but then their defense came to a halt, not enough reserves, and now the commander in charge of this

initial success in the south, the commander of the south district has become the cnc of the whole operation, he has been given more freedoms, more reserves. he is the leader of the month. it has called on him to achieve success over the entire operation. right now it is a slow start for the second stage. it is a parliamentary action and selection. host: let's talk about what russia is going to do. you are a member of the opinion parliament in kyiv. what do you think russian president putin once with donba s. >> first of all i would like to respond on the russian

propaganda. first, there is no operation, and do not collect operation, because war is a execution of civilians who have nothing to do with military. if you want to call torturing children an operation, if you are calling these kinds of things in operation, then i am really sorry for you, because there is something wrong with your head and your moral qualities. this is massive execution of civilians, this is torturing of civilians, this is raping women, and no one in this world who has a heart and a mind in his head calls this an operation. it is a war. russian occupants are in ukraine. the negotiation is very tense.

just yesterday i had reported that the situation in mariupol is very intense. there are a number of civilians. we are talking about women and children, and in my opinion as the mother of 2 children, there is no way that russian soldiers can shield children. there are children, mothers, a lot of mothers with newborn babies in mariupol hiding in a bomb shelters. we hear that russian soldiers have orders to show these people, so russians have in order to show children. to all mothers and all people watching our show, do you

consider that it is ok to shell and murder children? do you imagine that your children or you yourself will go through this kind of nightmare? this is what ukraine is going through. host: i know the mayor of mariupol'as said 20,000 citizens have been killed. that is a shocking number. i need to move over to brussels if i may. what do you think president putin once with donbas, and what do you make with the european council president in kyiv today? >> it appears that instead of working across ukraine they went to focus on donbas, but mentally analysts think that because of the may 9 victory date deadline they want to serve up some kind of positive story for russia, because most analysts have been

shut and surprised at how long this has taken russia. people have overestimated the russian military, it has been acting chaotically and now they can focus on donbas. the ukrainians have a great experience, they have been working for eight years and the president of the council is visiting kyiv today signaling europe's interest in the region, but the issue about sanctions is symbolic in many respects. we are seeing the russian economy is taking a hit, that the key issue is energy. for example, germany is almost half reliant on their supplies from russia, so i think that the fact that they are still not talking about guest does not show that they are serious about that because they are worried about inflationary pressures in europe. in addition to that, individual member states can cut ties on

russian gas, as we have seen with lithuania. they do not need, for the eu it is difficult to get everyone agree. you have countries like hungary that are pro-russian. there are other types of symbolic sanctions, which is a small portrait of exports to europe. the europeans do a lot of virtue signaling but there is a growing wariness about what is happening in ukraine. we have seen millions of refugees coming to europe, and as the other commented noted this is serious work. we are seeing unintended consequences of putin's behavior. sweden and finland are talking about joining about nato. host: we will talk about those moves a little later what that might mean for security

calculations in your. let's come back to you, pavlov,, because i do not think we have entered this question yet. what is the significance of the donbas region? >> russia s been supporting pro-russian separatists since 2014 before this campaign began. russia recognized officially the independence of these students statements, and actually the official reason for going into ukraine is been the need to defend and expand the territory to the administrative pre-war territories. so now they are trying to do that apparently. again, there is this talk about the may 9 deadline.

i do not believe there was a deadline. there is no deadline at all. the thing is russia is caught in a very serious situation and will try to do its best to break out of it, so may 9 does not play much of a role. there will be a parade in moscow, but that is it. right now it russia and ukraine are in the midseason of the situation. the winter campaign is over. the summer campaign did not begin. the ground is still wet, there was a lot of rain. right now to get answers will be slowed by definition, because we have to rely on roads, which on donbas are bad and they are in a bad state. host: all right. >> who is going to occupied the

better position for the decisive battle, which i think will happen in may, june. host: it has been almost eight years since they self declared themselves as republics. it has been described as totalitarian. >> is a lie. it is a lie. these people were going to referendum being forced by russian soldiers who came to our land, who came to a sovereign country, which ukraine is and was in 2014, and they force people to go to a fake referendum. do not use putin's narrative, do not use the narrative of russian nazis and do not say ukrainian territories claim to be russian territories. they are not self declared.

host: ok, right. >> they are terrorists and separatists. do not use the russian narrative. i hope that you are independent media and not criminal in media are russian media, right? all i am going to tell you is that the russian guy who just talked with talking about a kind of winter campaign summer campaign, but he forgot to mention that there is spring campaign. a campaign, when ukrainian farmers, when ukrainian agriculture companies are planting food, which will grow in summer and autumn, and i want to tell you -- i want to knock to your heart and your minds with information. what questions are doing in ukraine is a atrocity, but not

only to ukrainian people, ukrainian mothers, ukrainian children, but also they are doing horrible things to all around the world. host: i hear what you're saying. my role in moderating is to ensure that we have an even conversation. to share the same amount of airtime. i am sorry, i am going to have to pass on over to our analysts in europe. teresa, how do you think this is going to play out? is the is going to come under russian influence? >> in the fog of war no one has made any correct productions at all. i would say that is unclear, no one predict half of the things that have happened. they are adding more troops in the region, we note russians have a huge morale problem.

the ukrainians have fought hard because it is their country and their land, so it is difficult at this moment to predict what will happen. it is phase 2, but i think your's response to this needs to be more weapons, more support, more sanctions and more money. you see germany dragging their kills on this. president zelenskyy has backed four tanks from germany. there is reluctance to do this. a new scandal erupted in europe about ties to a russian gas company. the octopus of russian corruption reaches not just to london, where it is known as being a laundromat for russian

up's -- russian's money. they have such close ties to russia. it has hobbled any initiatives to have meaningful sanctions on gas. now they are trying to cobble together sanctions on russian oil that has been delayed for quite some time. europe really needs to take these things seriously. i know it is big and unwieldy. they do virtue signaling and symbols, but we understand there will be spillage, ukraine might just be an appetizer if we look at the draft agreements that putin tabled that this means more than ukraine. the baltics are fearful. putin has inadvertently given nato it's mojo back. host: pavel, there have been

workrooms documented. there have been investigation into alleged war crimes. the stories we have been hearing for weeks are horrendous. atrocities, as we have been discussing. do you believe russia will be held to account or that these will be fully investigated? >> i believe they are going to be investigated but not in russia. right now moscow is rejecting outright. that is the traditional position that is happened with police officers in 1914, russian officers denied any responsibility. i think right now russia is not going to cooperate. putin promised to the austrian chancellor at that russia will cooperate, but i do not think

that is going to happen. in the future if there is a regime change in moscow, these crimes could be actually tried through court maybe. maybe in moscow. that is very much the future, it is not immediate right now. it does not have much very in the situation in the field. it is a terrific pr disaster for moscow, and i believe the very serious things that have been done by russian soldiers led by their commanders, i am not sure this was the political intent, but anyway the result is disastrous. nothing will be done about it. host: i would like to come back to you. how do you think this is going

to play out? what are your concerns for the coming weeks and months for your country? >> if russia does not put down their weapons and leave our sovereign country, the situation not only in ukraine but also in the world will be deteriorating. the situation will be worse and worse. and that there will be a very serious problem with food and with food security. in arabic world as well. ukraine's agriculture, ukrainian food, sunflower oil, wheat and other agricultural products are feeding around the world as well. 22% of ukrainian exports was agriculture and food. if this year and next year the arabic world will have no

agriculture for ukraine, if agricultural products will go hi, you know who to blame. you should blame russia, the russian army and potent -- putin. they do not allow us to have a proper plant campaign. we are unable to plant food for the world. 600 million people. 600 million people in the world are dependent on ukrainian food. host: we are already seeing high food prices around the world, skyrocketing costs of basic goods for people around the world. we are coming nearly to the end of the program. i would like to go to back to teresa to round out the show. when the war first started, the

stand with ukraine symbol was everywhere. do you think that as time goes on the world's resolve, the west's resolve to help ukraine will falter? >> that is a good question. you know the professional community's attention span is limited. a president's visit ukraine keeps it on the map, but in the new cycle we do not see it on the front page anymore. the russians understand that. we know the war in donbas has been going on for eight years, and it did not get onto the headlines until this invasion of ukraine. for eight years this has been a long, drawnout conflict. on the other hand, we are seeing because of this destruction with ukraine, sweden and finland are looking like they are going to

ask to join nato. i think that individually they would not have considered it, but they are not fearful of russia so much anymore. they see the military not as frightening, they see it as competent and chaotic, so joining together sweden and finland appear to be gaining more momentum to join nato. there was a nato summit in june. today in a swedish newspaper if there was a positive editorial by the editorial board supporting sweden's membership of nato, which is a watershed moment. for 200 years sweden has been a neutral country. for them to join with finland, the idea of joining nato, full number status, because they have close cooperation with nato at this point.

they would be covered by article five. that would translate -- the landscape of europe. it would change the strategic landscape of europe it was they never intended. host: my apologies, we have run out of time. we will have to leave it there. thank you very much for joining us. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website , al jazeera.com. you can join the conversation on twitter. for me as entire team in doha -- and the entire team and, have a good [mus]

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