♪ host: now for a chick -- a quick check of the headlines. russia has taxed bulgaria over refusal to pay in rubles. the eu says the kremlin is using energy to blackmail countries supporting ukraine. vladimir putin has claimed ukraine was pushed to class with russia and moscow's reaction was just and fair. speaking to politicians in st. petersburg, he warned any country that enter years with russia's military campaign in ukraine will face immediate consequences. -- any country that interferes

with russia's military campaign. >> if anyone would want to interfere with what is happening in ukraine, from the outside, they have to know russia's response will be swift and fast. we have tools that the west cannot obtain and we will not boast of our weapons, but we will use them if need be and i want everyone to know that. host: russian forces have continued to pound the last known stronghold of ukrainian forces. more than 3000 soldiers and civilian's or hold up the steel works, where conditions are growing more dire. about 100,000 are estimated to be trapped across the city. u.n. secretary general has arrived in ukraine as he pushes for a cease-fire of the two month war. to moscow on tuesday, where he met russia's president, vladimir putin. when he arrived in ukraine, he tweeted that he will work to expand humanitarian support and secure the evacuation of civilians. he is expected to meet ukrainian president zelenskyy later in the week. despite being deeply divided over the ukraine work, russia and the u.s. have completely

surprised prisoner swap. russia's foreign ministry says maureen -- marina trevor reed has been swap for a pilot who was serving a 20 year sentence. one of the holiest nights in the gear and islam is being observed in occupied east jerusalem. earlier, there were an estimated quarter of a million worshipers at the mosque. which marks the 27th night of the month of ramadan. it follows israeli raids at the site and the killing of 17 civilians in the crackdown across the occupied west bank. two of them in the last two days. those are the headlines. the news continues here on al jazeera after inside story. ♪

>> the government and the maldives bands what they call india --bans india and his crackle of its political influence in the country could what is behind this campaign and what does that mean for the close ties between india and the maldives? this is inside story. host: hello and welcome to the program. and yet out, that is the slogan some opposition parties in the maldives have been repeating for more than two years now. claiming the government is selling their country to india. the campaign now banned by the

government started in 2020 as street protests quickly gaining traction on social media. those behind this say they only oppose india's small military presence in the maldives and are not against trade, cultural, and other ties. a coalition of opposition parties led by former president accused the government of signing secret deals with new delhi, allowing indian troops to be permanently stationed in the maldives. there is also a wider geopolitical side to this. as the maldives has emerged as an important battleground for competition between india and china in south asia. in november, the government issued the following statement. " the government of maldives strongly rejects attempts to spread false information through media and across social using the so-called and yet out slogan. "

bilateral cooperation with the governments of maldives and india undermines the national security and sovereignty of maldives. support provided by india and areas such as search and rescue capabilities, casualty evacuation, coastal surveillance, and maritime reconnaissance directly benefit the multiview and people. -- the maldivian people. cooperation with the two nations goes years back. new delhi had donated helicopters and aircraft to a maldives to help with medical evacuations and surveillance. 75 indian personnel are stationed in maldives at the moment and maintain and operate the aircraft. the two countries are also working on an interlinked radar chain to secure their shores.

let's bring in our guest, joining us. he is founder and editor of maldives news network. he is assistant professor of government at georgetown university. he joins us from croatia. joining us from new delhi, a ceo and editor in chief of strategic news global. welcome to the program. this ban on india out, is it an attempt by the government to prevent hate speech or is it politically motivated? >> thank you for having me. the india out campaign, i think it is a bit more complicated than simply just a political movement. the movement's origins go all

the way back to 2009 when india first decided to expand to encompass maldives free territory. so it cannot be deemed as a simple movement and certainly, this is attempting to portray it as such. and in the process, their attempt to portray it as a political movement, which is detrimental to the bilateral relations of the countries. but i do not think it would be accurate to say that the india movement is just a simple political movement. host: the government as saying the reason why it is banning india is because the campaign is widely seen as undermining relations with india.

others on the other hand say this is just an attempt by the government undermined the chances for the opposition leader ahead of the next presidential elections. uday: i think there is some truth but i have to say in maldives, these small states, island states, are trying to counterbalance india and china. and so i think for each of these governments, even if the government changes as in sri lanka, they have to kind of play both sides. and in some ways, yes, it is about preempting the opposition from doing the same thing, but that is the domestic aspect. let's not forget there is the wider international relations. hashem: ok. what is the view in india? is it seen as an attempt against the india first odyssey by president? nitin: indeed, the view in india is that this is an opposition

sponsored move against the current government of maldives, because if it was initially india military out, starting 2012, 2013, then it emerged into a sort of -- morphed into an india out campaign. and it is pointed out by the establishment, both in maldives as well, that the former president never protested against the u.s. military. so basically, it is meant for domestic proponent that is meant for the upcoming collections -- the upcoming elections, so we view this is widespread. although the concern is this

attempt to ban the campaign. it is also seen as a reaction in some quarters of india. so there are elements of would say both sides in this. hashem: the opposition, the reason why they launched the india out campaign is the biggest concern about what they described as growing military presence of india in that the ark is this something that you see exacerbated by the opposition to grow the presence of india and the country out of proportion? hamdhan: i do not think it is blown out of proportion. 2020 one, the defense minister testified in front of the parliament court -- in 2021, the defense minister testified. that leaves a large number of indian military personnel in the maldives, which up until that

point, the government of maldives, which is further testament. it gives testament to the credibility of the opposition's allegations that the government is allowing india to indefinitely stationed there with personnel in the maldives. unlike other -- we understand that in other nations, there is a military basis. what we have to understand here is that in this context, this is unique in that in nature, we have very little natural resources. very little armored defense forces. vastly -- compared to

original members. so even the notion of stationing a few hundred soldiers, this poses an existential threat to maldives as a sovereign nation. so this is the main concern that the opposition is raising. and i would love to just highlight that, contrary to what the current administration is portraying the opposition and india campaign as, it is in fact the largest political campaign in the maldives since 2018. the largest, the oldest has been part of their campaign. there is public support for it and there are arguments that it is justified. hashem: nitin, is there any

sentiment in india that this is not just a campaign sponsored by the opposition coalition in maldives, but rather, an attempt by the chinese to stop the rise of indians influence in south asia? nitin: certainly. there is no doubt about it, at least in my mind, that behind the scenes, the chinese are instigating these protests and this campaign. because they lost out -- remember, they were in full flow in the maldives when the president was in power. and he was completely in the chinese camp, as is borne out by the events in that year. so, they would certainly like to make a comeback, because the current government has said that india first policy.

and china would like to reverse that policy by backing his supporters to come into power again. and this is one way of trying to make their way back to power. elections are one euro way and therefore, no one is surprised with the timing -- elections are one year away. no one is surprised with the timing and the tone of the campaign, itself. in my mind, i have no doubt this is chinese sponsored movement. largely financed by the chinese, if not backed or physically participated by chinese. in maldives. hashem: the world knows the archipelago as a tourism hub, but many are wondering how could this place become a battleground for china, india, rivalry in the region. uday: well, you know, the

chinese have a strategy which they have tried to have them in sri lanka, the maldives, a number of countries. it connects with their broader interests in east africa and dubai and so on. and so, i think india is a bit linked to this game -- india is a bit late to this game. it has realized that it has to compete in a certain way. this is not a military composition or directly economic competition, but there is a geopolitical kind of strategic dimension to it. it also has to do with the current governments friendly toward one or the other, regional power. but you can see that there is a u.s.-backed india as a counter to chinese interest, which is in some ways in parallel to the road initiative, which people are very much about. hashem: ok.

india has always had this privileged status with the maldives. all of that came to an end in 2013, when you mean came to power -- when he came to power and said it is going to be china first. then 2018, he comes to power and he says now it is going to be now india first. this shifting dynamic in the country with each president coming to power, is this something that could potentially undermine stability in the maldives? hamdhan: i do not think it is necessary china first policy -- it is necessarily a china first policy. as far as the records go, it was under the current administration that the government of the maldives announced that it would not take a side in geopolitics.

until that point, the maldives had maintained a reliable front in regards to regional politics. but president and his administration prefer trading with china. yes, but according to the people , the maldives did seek out automatic trade partners, including japan and a few banks in germany. but the chinese offered in terms of interest rates and returns, it was just far more appealing than what india, japan, and other countries offered. so we are seeing an attempt to maximize infrastructure, much-needed.

the president chose to partner with china, but that does not mean that it is all one or the other. even up until the end of his administration, he maintained diplomacy. along with india, involved in a situation or conflict. due to the singular fact that indian government refused to remove personnel in the maldives, even after repeated requests by the foreign ministry , the defense ministry. according to recently leaked documents, the indian ministry personnel in the maldives attached to the -- were formally requested to remove themselves and following their refusal,

they plan to leave. they did not. this is the extent that india attempted to maintain their presence in the maldives. after the disapproval of the maldives government. hashem: i see your point. you have just heard what has happened. this growing sentiment and maldives about the need for the indian military personnel to leave the country. this is a country where people are proud about their sense of independence. they exceed military presence as something that undermines -- date see military presence as something that undermines sovereignty. isn't india running the risk of losing the hearts and minds of the people in the maldives in the future? >> i don't think so. if you look at the military exercises patrolling the maldives, military changes between the two armed forces, and people who trade.

maldives armed forces personnel who trade. i do not think that the risk of losing hearts and minds of the people exists. because one section of the population, which is the supporters of probably the current opposition, might feel that way. but the indian military personnel in the military are in maldives at the permission of the maldives government. so why the government will say that we are training from the military personnel and civilian backed exist with the united states. where there is no protest against the collusion's of the back. the u.s. has similarly backed india, to attract more opposition from the current

opposition, because it has a history with the indian government. and india will play the cards, as it were, leads to as the situation develops. the maldives government has sided with one country or the other. china, and then again india comes back into a position of influence. that continues in smaller occasions around india. india is aware of this. hashem: so you have this ban on indian out campaign. the government was adamant about the need to introduce new legislation, which was going to -- which was going to ban any organizational campaign seen as a threat to maldives foreign policy or the country's foreign relations with foreign countries. are we here dealing with a government determined to continue to clamp on freedom of expression?

uday: i'm not sure i would necessarily see it in those terms, but i think yes, freedom of expression in all of south asia at this point, is a massive concern. and this is a concern because people are upset, they are expressing their grievances at or towards governments that do not deliver on democratic mandates. and so, we have reached a point where we have democracies, at least in name. it happens in regular cycles. but regardless of who comes to power, a set of grievances persists. so, we find this now, you see it in sri lanka, pakistan, you see it in situations where the political system is unable to deal with the demands that are coming in. there are grievances, which cannot be met. and then there are crackdowns. on expression of speech.

hashem: ok. when he was president of maldives, he took all of the measures to stifle dissent. clampdown on his opponents. isn't there a risk that he could be just triggered in the campaign to further his political ambition and security come back to power? uday: i agree with that assessment. this is his path back to power. but let's keep in mind that he can launch this campaign, because there exists a certain body of anti-india sentiment within the maldives today. and he is able to tap into this. it is not something he is just creating out of thin air. we have to realize that the islands are divided, just like the political parties are divided into india and china facing kind of camps. and i think that with a lot of younger people in the maldives, i think there is a sense that

the long-standing kind of ties with india need to be reassessed . you know, china is of course one factor, but i do think that there is a broader kind of rethinking also with respect to maldives. hashem: ok. this is a country that historically knew how to navigate and sway -- navigate its way, surrounded by geopolitical powerhouses. now you have the americans stepping in in 2020 with a defense framework agreement. is this the opportunity for the people of the maldives to say that, now faced with a chinese threat and indians, it is about time to reevaluate -- reinvent the way that we have to deal with great powers? hamdhan: i think the world is changing and the -- all of south asia will be a key point in the coming years. i do believe that maldives,

itself, needs to reassess its foreign policy and assess whether we need to take a side in the broader world and potential relations. but on the subject of india out campaign itself, contrary to -- the india campaign is not talking about different corporations within countries. it's not talking about military and maldives conducting joint military operations. it is talking about a series of military agreements, which under the current constitution of maldives, is illegal. and yet, the current administration revealed to the

parliament in article 251 c of the constitution which states that no foreign authoritarian touch military may be used by a foreign military. unless they get the approval of the majority of the parliament. so this is where the real issue is. it is not about anti-indian sentiments being created overnight. this is not about maldivians being against the people of indian origin. this is an issue of military personnel, under questionable circumstances. hashem: unfortunately, we are running out of time trade we have to leave it there for the time a. uday, nitin, hamdhan, i

appreciate your insight. you can join the discussion on facebook.com/a.j. story. you can check out the conversation on twitter. our handle is at a.j. inside story. from the entire team here, goodbye for now. ♪

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