concept. the western military alliance has decided to adopt a fundamental shift in deterrence and defence'. will nato's new strategic concept work? this is inside story. h hashem: hello, welcome to the program. russia is the most direct and significant threat to peace and security in the western world. that's nato's latest security assessment of moscow. it was disclosed during a

crucial summit in madrid. the alliance's members endorsed a more aggressive stance than the last time they agreed on a strategy in 2010. more troops, more funding and more support for each other. russia choose nato objecting with imperial ambitions and using ukraine to assert its power. nato says it is facing a more dangerous and competitive world as it presented its strategy. the alliance promise more troops in europe and declared an unshakable commitment to ukraine. president joe biden announced a permanent army base in poland and additional deployments across europe. the u.s. will also send two more at 35 fighter jet squadrons to the u.k.. sweden and finland were invited

to join nato during the summit, marking a historic shift in european security. it continues to view its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. for the first time, nato leaders voiced concern about the threat they see china posing in the future. >> china is building up its military forces, including nuclear weapons, bullying gets neighbors and threatening taiwan. investing heavily in critical infrastructure, including in allied countries. monitoring and controlling its own citizens through advanced technology. and spreading disinformation. china is not our adversary. but we must be clear eyed about

the serious challenges it represents. >> there is nothing that might concern us in terms of finland and sweden becoming nato members. but they should clearly understand that they did not face any threats before this. now, if nato troops are deployed, we will be compelled to respond in kind. it is obvious. everything was going fine between us, but now there will be tensions. this is obvious and inevitable if they pose a threat to us. hashem: let's bring in our guests. in moscow, vladimir sotnikov,

director at russia-east-west center for strategic studies and analysis. in brussels, theresa fallon is director at the centre for russia europe asia studies. in hong kong, andrew leung is china affairs analyst and chairman of andrew leung international consultants. welcome to the program. the new strategic concept embraced by nato, does it reinforce the sentiment among the russians that nato romance a threat to their country? vladimir: yes, and that was not moscow's choice. nato was not like it was in 2010 when there was a summit. at that time, russia was named as a partner. the present summit in madrid somehow could be called historic

because to my mind this is a turn to the new cold war. the west and the nato countries are a direct threat to russia's security. hashem: you get a sense in the new blue print that nato is concerned about the potential of the chinese military cooperation with russia in the near future and this explains why they are adding china as a security challenge for the alliance. theresa: the language is systemic challenge and i think there is negotiation among the members and what type of language to use. summit european countries have big investments in china. i would say what clinched it for many people and countries was the february 4 document signed in beijing in the run-up to the

olympics, where russia and china president signed statements, they were both joined together to push back on nato. the center much like too many countries. we have seen a lot of cooperation with russia and china. there have been three recent documents in the last few years that they have signed together. plus we see naval operations in the mediterranean, so they have been cooperating and sending signals to europe. hashem: andrew, the alliance has been saying they consider china's global ambitions as a threat to the international liberal architecture. how is this reverberating across china? andrew: this is nothing new as far as the united states 360°

confrontation with china is concerned. at the back of it all, near peer competitor, there was not russia, it was in fact china. the united states would rather get the war in ukraine over with and concentrate to confront china because china is seen as an existential threat to

america. in the south china sea, china is building up its capabilities, and of course china's conductivity, 130 countries have china has the largest trading partner. in the g7, they are introducing global infrastructure project. hashem: the war in ukraine has changed dynamics in the region, we are talking now about geopolitical realignments. president biden is saying the

united states will have permanent u.s. army base in poland. i assume this would be a nightmare scenario for russia. vladimir: i would like to say this would not be to my mind the nightmare scenario because yes, you are right that dynamics have changed, but because this is a military conflict basically. the ground realities are not just in the military books. so i think russia is ready for that. what is more important actually that whatever the outcome of this russia-ukrainian conflict could be, i am not sure that in this cold war which will be

prolonged, that in this new cold war, i am not sure the west will be the victorious side. not just like in the post-soviet union. hashem: if sweden and finland join nato, then the end alliance -- alliance will have a border with russia. this could in itself be the beginning of a seismic geopolitical shift that would see russia grappling with the presence of the western troops on the border. theresa: let me pick up on the previous point that my colleague stated that this is a new cold war. we must remember that russia

invaded ukraine and it is an unprovoked war. this has been going on since 2018. i think today with president biden, he stated last year when he met with president putin, he warned him that if he invaded ukraine that would see big united west and an bigger and stronger nato. so that is exactly what vladimir putin has gotten. we have seen a reversal of over two centuries worth of neutrality from sweden. they have calculated the situation is so dire that they need to join nato. finland has a long border with russia, so they have carefully calculated and have decided it is better to be with nato than to end up like ukraine and be invaded. i think russia's actions have actually created exactly what president putin did not want. he has a stronger nato, she has

32 countries rather than 30 that somehow he must explain to his domestic audience that the special military operation has created this blowback. over the next two years, europe will have to further diversify and they will no longer be as reliant on russian energy. china can sit back and watch a reduced and weakened russia. this will help them very much. they had difficult times in the past history with russia. china does not have to do a thing. china is the biggest beneficiary here and it is trying to convince everyone it is not

really supporting russia, but these agreements have shown this. china may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of what happens in the future. china will drive a hard bargain with russia and may have more ability to navigate. hashem: andrew, historically speaking for the americans, the first step if you want to counter chinese expansion is to go into the sphere of influence of china itself and stop it there. the focus is going to be now in the pacific region. andrew: the idea of forming a g

12 of democracies. two can think china. -- to contain china. as far as the war in ukraine, there is an initial western jubilation. we see president biden and his team shaken their hands in glee at russia's initial failure to achieve any progress. by now the situation, the realities are beginning to sink in. russia is making steady gains and there was a critique setting in in the west as inflation

fears and recession fears. in spite of this, there was a lot of denial. but there is no doubt there is a game changer. modern wars are now thought by soldier's efforts on the ground. you have hypersonic weapons, you have missiles. of course, russia is the largest territory, well ahead of the united states. no country in the world in history has ever conquered russia. hashem: what would be the next

step for russia? do you see them teaming up with the chinese along with other countries to build a counter alliance? vladimir: this is a good question. i was thinking it to myself. my personal impression is this is the crucial moment for russian foreign policy when the relationship between russia and nato countries probably has deteriorated for years to come. at least the new strategic of nato summit in madrid says about the cure of 2030. -- year or -- of 2030. russia has done a lot of effort to combine strength with its

partners and allies, like china. there were a lot of documents adapted jointly by china and russia, though i do not agree that the most beneficiary side was china. the chinese leader probably urged president putin to step -- stop the special military operation. i do not agree with this completely. this rapidly emerging organization and the caspian grouping and also the other organization. because it combines china,

india, iran. russia will be communicating with them and will be counting on their support. hashem: the nato alliance has been cautious about the need to move forward from romania all the way to the baltic states. they were concerned about triggering any incident that would unleash a massive military confrontation. do you think with invasion of ukraine, that was the line that was drawn by the alliance the moment it was crossed? there was no point of return. theresa: i think no one wants to see a nato-russia war. but the fact that there has been penetration of swedish airspace

by russian planes. everyone has played this down in order not to increase threat level, but i think what we see now with the new nato security concept is that this is a huge concern. and the only way forward is better defense, not just deterrence. this has demonstrated that russia is a deep concern, that hard power is something everybody thought they would negotiate with them. i think all of the strategy was really focused on relations with russia and that has proven to be put on the ashy heap of history. this idea that if we are nice to russia at that putin will be next to us, that has been pretty much we learned it was a big

mistake. the question now is what is the way forward? that is one of the key aspects. but also looking at the bigger geopolitical picture. nobody can ignore that china is something everyone needs to keep their eye on. the u.s. needs europeans to spend more on their own defense so the u.s. can focus more on the indo pacific. this is something europeans will find difficult. hashem: i have a few other issues to discuss. andrew, are we likely to see more action as far as the self -- south china seas are concerned? andrew: we can see the united

states is now writing high on the ability to rally. nato has been reenergized. but right in high-end that -- riding high on that, there is talk of the g 12. there was also this pacific infrastructure initiative. we can see that both china and russia are starting to push back.

in addition to the sink i partners, we could see a growing divide between the west developed countries and the developing world. the development world is going to account for 60% of the world's economic future. hashem: do you see potential for reconciliation between nato and russia? vladimir: yes, despite all of the horrible situation. i think there are some crucial points of mutual interest.

this is international terrorism. hashem: as nato and europe ready for scaling up military force? and great defense expenditure? theresa: president mccrone said just a couple of years ago that nato was brain-dead. yes, it will cost money, but it is there. germany has pledged 100 billion to strengthen its own military. countries will have to spend on defense. hashem: we will have to leave it there. i really appreciate your

insight. thank you. and thank you for watching. you can see the program at any time by visiting our website. you can also join the conversation on twitter. goodbye for now. ñcñcñcñcqooooooo7ú oñoñoñoñoñoññ ♪

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