>> this is al jazeera and these are the top stories. moscow and kyiv have signed a deal to allow the safe passage of grain exports from ukrainian ports on the black sea. the agreement was brokered by turkey and the united nations and has raised hopes of easing the global food crisis. the turkish president says the agreement marks an important step towards peace in the ukraine. >> this joint step we are taking in istanbul together with russia and ukraine will be a new

turning point that will revive the hopes for peace. this is my sincere hope. whatever the direction the developments on the field will take, the war will finally end on the negotiating table. this friendly and peaceful atmosphere we have established will be to the benefit of humanity, and this will transform into steps aimed at ending the war. >> sri lanka's new president has been criticized for a crackdown on protesters. secure divorces are accused of attacking members of the public. police say they had no alternative. at least 60 people have been killed in fighting between armed groups in tripoli. steve bannon, a one-time aid to former u.s. president donald trump has been found guilty in contempt of congress. he defied a subpoena investigating last year's riot

on capitol hill. and there's been confrontations in tunisia's capitol between police and protesters opposed to next week's constitutional referendum. it would significantly enhance the powers of the president. the opposition has called for a boycott of monday's vote. turbulent times ahead for the eurozone. business activity across the region has fallen to a 17-year low. the downturn is affected by manufacturing and the service sector. fears are growing for key economies like germany, france, and italy. surging inflation and the rise in interest rates are partially a result of the war in ukraine and the covert pandemic. those of the headlines. the news continues after "inside story" and you can also keep up on i'llchoose era -- howg0 --

aljazeera.com. ♪ >> he was brought in to unite italy, but prime minister mario draghi has resigned, triggering snap elections. what is behind the latest political drama and who stands to gain the most from the political turmoil? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. mario draghi was known as super mario. the former european central bank chief was appointed as italy's prime minister to lead a unity

government and steer the country out of the pandemic. although he was popular among the public, draghi did not enjoy the same level of support within the fractured coalition. his resignation forced the president to -- to dissolve parliament and call a snap election in september. it is the latest political upset in the eurozone's third-largest economy. >> italy's president announcing a 70-day timeline for early elections, clearly a decision he did not want to take. >> the early dissolve minna parliament is always a last resort, particularly if, as it is the case in this period, the parliament has many important tasks to complete in the interests of our country, but the developments in the political situation have led to this decision. >>'s announcement came hours after mario draghi stepped down. on thursday, the prime minister

made his last statement in parliament before tendering his resignation. >> even central bankers' hearts are cut sometimes. thank you for this and thanks for all the work we have done together during this time. >> draghi letter government for less than 18 months. -- draghi led a government for less than 18 months. many saw him as a steady hand to help lead the government out of pandemic. he helped steer millions of dollars to italy, the largest recipient of a in the euro zone. in the end, this central banker could not wrangle the diverse group of parties in his coalition, each with its own priorities. >> he could not tame the populace because the populace of the five-star movement splintered. he could not tame the other populists because they are splitting, so there is great chaos right now underway.

>> while some are lamenting the government's collapse, one party is thrilled. the far right wing brothers of italy currently leading in the polls, looks likely to win more seats than any other party, but it is not clear it will be able to manage relationships with other eu leaders as well as draghi, and some worry it could put further eu recovery payouts at further risk. >> italy is no stranger to political turmoil. it has had 69 governments since world war ii, almost a new administration every year. the brothers of italy currently leads opinion polls with nearly 24%. the leader, georgia maloney, could head up a right wing government, and the former prime minister, silvio berlusconi's party.

some members have rolled out being in an alliance with the five-star. for your guest is a former undersecretary of italy's economic development ministry and the head of economic analysis at the center for european policy and also from rome, the director of the school of government and professor of contemporary history. warm welcome to you all. thank you so much for your time with us. draghi is credited by some with really restoring italy's credibility on the world stage, but his critics would say he was a technocrat and he could not play the part of the politician, especially when it came to working with parliament. what do you think went wrong? >> what went wrong was the current government was formed during the covid crisis where

pretty much the interest of the whole country, of all political parties were aligned, so we formed this government of national unity. after the covid crisis was overcome, the differences between parties started to emerge. many parties kept splitting to fall apart. it was becoming unsustainable, and this was the premises for the difficult relationship between draghi -- placed on him to lead parliament, now the second stage wanting to leave the government, so the conflict was created. >> right. was there any choice for draghi except resignation? >> know, eventually there was no other choice because it was clear that his majority had fallen apart. one could argue that when the

problems started setting in last week with the first no vote of confidence, it was not really a vote of no-confidence, it was a non-vote of confidence. i think he could have played it softer. if he had, i think he had some more choices to remain as prime minister, but it is also clear that he had understood that anyway his government would be weekend and worn out by this situation. he was also i think personally quite tired about all that. he was torn between his personal preference and the national interest pulling him in its position. when he started resigning last week, and then with his speech the day before yesterday, wednesday, he made the task

easier for those who want to get rid of him. >> i wonder if you could explain what you mean by he could have laid it softer. there was a run in with five-star movement, and that ultimately triggered the entire crisis. then according to reports, the leaders of the northern league and others issued a statement giving draghi their support, but it came with conditions, so he was in a really tough position, was he not? >> that was at the end of the crisis, but in order to get to the position we are describing, there was a path in a way that led the country there. for instance, when last week, the five-star did not vote the confidence, they also said they wanted to support the government, so there was no need for him to resign. he could have opened up

negotiation in order to build up his majority. that was the softer option, but he wanted to resign. of course, his resignation was refused by the president of the republic, but nonetheless, resigning dramatized the crisis. on wednesday, he gave a rather tough speech announcing that he was basically in a way making it more difficult for them to stay in the majority, and then in the senate, he was very tough on the five-star movement. with a softer intervention, he might have tried to win back the five-star movement, so there were moments in this very technical game in which he could have left the door a bit more open, and yet, he remained very strict for reasons that are understandable, of course. he wanted to make it clear for

the political parties. what he did is understandable. nonetheless, this is part of the -- let's say, the development of the crisis. >> big resignation now accepted by the president. where are we in terms of the process of how italy now heads to another election? >> we are going to have another election by september 25, and draghi will remain in power to do work until the date of the election. as far as the election is concerned, i believe it is a huge chance that a coalition of the right wing parties might win. the coalition will probably be led by the brothers of italy, which has gained exceptional support during the last years. the party past 4% in 2019 to almost 22% today.

this was also related to the fact that the party was at the opposition of the government. the leak -- the league has been losing power, and then the party led by former prime minister berlusconi. we will see what happens, but it is likely a right-wing coalition may take power. >> i want to talk right wing parties in a moment. just on the process of what happens next -- how long do you think it will actually take to form a new government? >> it depends on how much the right wing coalition might win. of course, and then, you know, its capacity to form a coherent government, so it could take weeks or months, i think. this, of course, is quite risky in terms of credibility of italy in this really tough moment at the international level for all

the reasons that we know. >> obviously a period of instability ahead. which party do you think will take credit for what has developed over the past few days, and who do you think benefits from all this? >> i don't think parties are, like, fighting to get credit this. on one hand, 3, 4 parties in the way of draghi will fall out, but they also supported him if he had made concessions, so there is no real political capital to be gained by claiming to be the agent of draghi's collapse just because of his reputation. all parties are shying away from claiming the victory and concentrating on the campaign. you asked me who will win. i agree it will likely be the center right coalition that

could actually take a vast majority of parliament because if they go together, they together crossed the 40% threshold, they gain a little bit extra, so a number of members of parliament could be higher than proportional votes that they receive, and also because the left wing are in a way this united. it used to be that the democratic party could go ahead with the five-star movement. now this is not likely to be, so we have a breakdown of coalition on the left side, and that favors the right wing government. that is why i think out of this crisis, they are the ones who will gain the most benefit. >> how do you explain the rise of the far right in italy? from what i understand, the brothers of italy -- that is the furthest party to the right,

just for our viewers -- they went from about 4% of the vote in 2018 in the general election to now becoming the biggest party in opinion polls, at least. how do you explain this rise? >> the main reason is we have the economic crisis, covert crisis, the war, the sanctions that would hurt the italian economy, the gas, everything -- the only thing you need to do to get votes is to stay in the opposition, so in a way, georgia maloney was lucky and smart not to be part of the draghi government in 2021, 16 months ago, and of course, she reaped the benefit of collecting the anger that in the meantime developed in italy. you mentioned before the reputation of draghi in the international arena, which is true, but within italy, we have

discontent growing. only two weeks ago, we had the massive taxi drivers protest that pretty much blocked the whole center of rome with tourists getting into chaos, and we have the people who complain still about the way the government dealt with the lockdown, the covert crisis, so for georgia maloney, almost irrespective of her views, just being in your position gives you 5% to 10% points just for not being in the government. >> is that how you see things? this leader of the right wing party, the brothers of italy, her party is accused of attracting the support of neofascists. she holds nationalist views on migration, social as well as cultural issues. does she appeal to the italian

voters? >> i think he was right but i would qualify some of the things he was saying. italy is a right wing country, and the right wing is in a majority as it has always been. already in the elections of 2018, it was a very near miss for the center-right coalition, so we should start from that. these are votes that are moving inside right. they are moving from the league to brothers of italy, so basically, these are right wing votes that have always stayed inside right. they are moving from one party to another. originally, they were in berlusconi's party, but berlusconi is now 85, so this is a story that is coming to its

close, so many roads are actually going out from that party. many of the votes went to the league, and the leader was looking like the person in charge of the right, but he made a number of quite serious political mistakes and since 2019, those votes have started moving to georgia maloney. these are the same votes from 2018 and 2019 and berlusconi had earlier than that. there are new fascists in italy, but this is a very tiny minority. when you are speaking of a center-right that is credited by the electoral polls, actual neofascists are maybe 2% of that. this is not a neofascist boat.

georgia maloney is not neofascist. there is a national conservative party, right wing. national conservative inside the boundaries of a lib democracy, and in this moment, italians clearly want to be governed by at least that part of italy that has always been right wing now thinks that georgia maloney is the more credible leader. >> if you look at mario draghi's past, he has been a supporter of

ukraine, for example. he played a key role in the g7 as well as lurch to the right in italy, with these policies change drastically? >> let me just add something. i think the reason why georgia maloney has reached such a level of support is because of such discontent that started with covid but was based on the economic crisis that italy has been living.

and of course, the effect of the reforms draghi was doing were not still somehow understandable by everyday citizens. as far as the foreign agenda is concerned, i believe that if we are going to have a right wing government, i don't see italy changing completely its position towards russia. i think georgia maloney was pretty clear in condemning putin and also the leader of the league, even though he was one of the most pro-russian leaders of italy, he has changed his views. what i see is a change of italy within the eu in the sense that the party has been for years considered a skeptic, and although their positions have

been somehow watered during the crisis, in the sense that they don't clear -- don't declared to be so each country should look

at its national interests instead of looking for a common interest. to place italy in a group of countries complaining of sanctions, which are having a bad economic impact on the national economy. this i believe is possible. i don't see italy leading such a coalition. i see italy becoming part of a bigger group if a bigger group is to reform somehow. >> what does this caretaker regime made for the government's ability to take on new initiatives? for example, italy is the

biggest recipient of the eu's covert recovery funds, but seeing is that money is tied to certain reforms that italy must take, do you think that italians might lose out on the next installment? >> no, i don't think so. the current government can carry on with normal processes. i do not think the money is at risk. of course there will be a new government. that government will decide what to do with the recovery funds. my view is maybe very different from what you may have heard. the money we get from the european union -- first of all, it is money that ultimately comes from the financial market. the european union raises funds in the market but then passes

part of the money back to member states, so the ultimate investors are the financial markets, like happens normally. the european is an intermediary that plays the role of investing in underwriting the debt. we first tried to borrow as much money as possible, 200 billion, and now italy has been looking at ways to invest that money, and let me tell you, as a professor of finance, this is exactly the thing that might students if they did, they would fail economic finance in the first year. you do the other route. you first list the projects.

you rank them according to the highest return. you see how much money you need. you cut a line to the projects that do not go over a certain hurdle rate, look at how much money you need, and then go and borrow it. this button and rent draghi admitted this has a fiscal multiplier of 0.9 -- mission i have now is is this all a big blow the near term, this government is now a caretaker government that is the to do what is called the ordinary administration. since september while there is still the draghi government, we cannot expect very deep reforms. part of the next generation is ruled by dramatic mechanisms, so that part will just roll on. the other reforms that are underway might be completed if the parties are agreed, but certainly -- let's say the next two hour three months -- i would not arm because there is not the political pot any reform. >> let me bring in eleanor. final words to you picks few months, and give us a sense of what it is like in verona. are people paying attention to yet another government >> if you talk to citizens, actually, there is a double feeling. on the one hand, there are some who really cheap in draghi, and it was the 50% of italians believed he could face of the country but did not like the coalitions. on the other hand, you have other citizens that do not understand the political landscape and do not see the benefit basically of italy or atlantic powers. they just see raising prices,

and they are not touched by this political crisis, and i think those are also the ones that are going to vote from discontent about the current situation, resulting in a protest about and supporting the only party that is outside the coalition. >> we will have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us. thank you for watching. you cao o @8@8@8■x■xpgdki

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