decades of turmoil in chad. they have signed a peace agreement. but with one of the biggest rebel groups refusing to take part will the support hold? how far off is democracy in the central african nation. this is inside story. mohammed: hello and welcome to the program. i am mohammed jamjoum. chad's transitional military

council has signed a peace deal with armed groups. armed group walked out of one of chad's largest armed group walked out of negotiations when its demands were not met. the question is whether the much-anticipated national dialogue will go ahead on august 20. julie wolf has the story. reproter: more than 40 opposition groups signed along long-awaited peace deal on monday, giving them cause for hope. >> it was a very tough and difficult talks, but what is important which was resolved which we got at the low end of the long process and i think this agreement will lead us to sustainable peace in chad. reproter: the deal comes after five months of negotiations and pave the way for a return to civilian rule. a cease-fire, amnesty and a national dialogue will be the

first articles to be implemented. the dialogue is meant to lead to the formation of a government of national unity, constitutional reform and democratic elections. qatar says the agreement is just the beginning. >> we are very hopeful will end hostilities, it will move the military process to a political process and allow for an easy transition toward the negotiations in chad. reproter: a noticeable absence was the main rebel group. >> i think at the beginning, we were a little bit sure that fact would not sign. reproter: chad has been left in conflict for decades, fighting among armed groups has force hundreds of thousands of people

from their homes. when deby replaced his father last year, he promised political reform. over the years dozens of peace agreement's have failed, but many here say that after 60 years of conflict, chadians are tired of war and ready for peace. for inside story, jillian wolf. mohammed: let's go ahead and bring in our guests. we have remadji hoinathy, senior researcher at the institute for security studies. enrica picco, director of the central africa project at international crisis group. andrew yaw tchie, senior researcher at the norwegian institute of international affairs. a warm welcome to you all and thanks for joining us today. how many groups and factions

ultimately signed this agreement , how many did not sign and do you believe that this agreement can lead to a sustainable peace in chad? remadji: i think in all there were 50 groups that work in the talks in doha. there were about 43 groups that finally signed it. on the others like, we have about nine groups that did not sign this agreement. what we could say regarding the composition of the different groups, those who signed and those who do not sign. we have the movement led by the

biggest group. the last findings in which the president deby, we have a deal, but one of the major groups is not part of the deal. mohammed: you heard him talk about the fact that not all rebel groups and factions signed this accord. one of the big worries is the fact that the fund for change and in chad refused to sign this

accord despite last-minute efforts by mediators. the fact that they have not signed, the fact that other groups have not signed on, how worrying is that? enrica: it creates a lot of uncertainty about the future, not only about the transitional process, but also the overall peace in the country. we always have to remember that this peace deal has to be framed in a much broader framework, and the agreement was supposed to be only the first step to bring rebel groups to the national dialogue that is supposed to start next week in n'djamena.

the fact that the biggest group has not signed it is already creating a condition for negotiation on one side or for a return to the rebellion. it is still too early to say what are the next steps. but something is already missing in the national dialogue that is supposed to start next week. mohammed: from your perspective, if a lasting peace is not achieved with this accord, how is that going to impact other countries in the region? andrew: the key challenge is that even if you did have an

agreement, you would still have to be able to implement it. the challenge here is a could continue to spill over into other countries. on the larger scale, what it could do is create continuous regional instability. the wider picture is about chad's contributions to african security. we have seen the rise of chad in the last decade. if you have insecurity at home, eventually at some point these trips could be sent back.

the wider concern is that if this is not resolved, then what happens? that is the space we need to be looking at long-term. mohammed: since you brought this up, when it comes to efforts in combating armed groups in the region, how significant a role does chad play? andrew: more so with terrorists. particularly terrorist groups like in the chad basin. that is a challenge, but also chad has been at the forefront of trying to deal with that

challenge. i think that is a concern. if long-term forces are brought back home to deal with the challenge, then what happens? we have already seen this, for example, if the gap needs to be filled, chad has been under previous leadership. if you have this insecurity internally, which is always been there, but if it continues, long term it is not good for the region. mohammed: this agreement is supposed to pave the way for a national dialogue which is supposed to begin in n'djamena

later this month. do you believe the timeline will actually be meant, that this water national dialogue can actually start as a disk scheduled to start this month. enrica: it is likely to be delayed again i think because even though the committee has been preparing, the political opposition were willing to participate, but after the events in may, they rest of the

leader of one of the main opposition coalition in the country and also the discussion around the participation of the different political actors in the national dialogue, it made the situation more tense. the political opposition estimated that out of the 1400 and the national dialogue, 1200 will be occupied by the people close to the government. this is not only about the participation of the armed group or of the discussion. it is much more entrenched. this is something that should be

sorted out and it is unlikely it will be done in one week. mohammed: the main rebel group in chad said rejection of the agreement followed the failure of them to take her demands into consideration. remadji: there was more at stake. there were demands regarding the transitional chart. this is something they have been talking about. there was always the necessity of the people to be leading the

transition. there should not be more people from there. the last thing they are also requesting is the committee in charge of organizing the dialogue. these are the main demands they are doing. this is why also they did not

assign this agreement. mohammed: andrew, one of the messages coming out of the conclusion of these talks in doha was that even for those groups who do not participate this time out, there was hope been extended that they would like to see these armed groups, these rebel groups, purchase of 20 -- participate at some point going forward. do you think that is likely to happen? will more groups enter into this dialogue at some point? andrew: that is my hope that it could happen. i think it is crucial they offer be extended and continue being extended. you have rebel groups who

continue to sit on the sidelines and that is not good for the long-term stability of chad. i think that should continue to be left open, the dialogue should be used to open up a gateway. it is also crucial that those who are leading the negotiations need to make sure that those who assign the agreements meets the stipulations. if not, you have a situation where these groups who have signed and those who have not signed. long-term, it is not good because then you can get the piece that you want to. mohammed: the transitional military counsel said they would

oversee an 18 month transition to democratic rule and that elections would eventually be held. have their birth signs that have there been signs indicating that they are going about trying to organize elections? enrica: there is already a general consensus about the fact that the transition will be extended. the end of the 18 months will be the end of the september, the end of october. it is impossible that it will be organized. one of the objectives is to revise the transitional constitution and to send the rules for the upcoming election.

the rules of the game are not in place yet. the preparation has not started. the government is looking for funding to start. mohammed: what is their latest we can possibly see election ends happening? -- elections happening? remadji: with the dialogue just starting, there is no way have been elections within 2022. the earliest elections could be organized in this country might be around the middle of 2023.

these debates in doha have been lasting for five months. the transition will be certainly extended, but then we do not have any think putting in place to organize that elections. i think made 2023 is the most realistic date. mohammed: i want to take a step back for a second. is there hope in chad right now among ordinary citizens that this accord could either stop or reduce any of the fighting?

remadji: i think the transition process brought a lot of hope to the country. i think we are observing the hope that has been brought about from the transition is kind of fading away because of the agreement without the most important rebel groups. i think the feeling here in chad is very mixed. mohammed: enrica, a moment ago you mentioned that one of the steps to be taken soon is that and new constitution should be drafted. how difficult will that be to

accomplish? enrica: it will be quite difficult to achieve. first of all because not all the parties will be represented. so some political actors will not be part of the dialogue. at least this political dialogue. but also because there was no agreement. all of these issues will be on the table for the first time in

the country. if it is properly done, the national dialogue will work hard to frame the constitution in no way that is accepted by all the parties that are represented. mohammed: how involved has the international community been in reaching this new accord. and how different is that from other records in the past? -- accordance in the past. enrica: there has been a mediator from france and the united states and the african union. but there has also been pressure

from the international community. there are been pressures in many different ways. in the transitional government i would say now needs to find a balance. this is one of the concerns of the stakeholders involved. we have an opportunity to move

toward something that is much more inclusive and legitimate. we will see in the coming months if there is willingness to do so. mohammed: thanks so much to all of our guests. thank you too for watching. you can see the program by visiting our website. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. goodbye for now. ú/ú/ú/ú/ú/ú/ñcñcñcñc

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