>> extreme weather is causing havoc from the americas, europe across africa and asia. sudan has been lashed by heavy seasonal flooding since may. the u.n. secretary general has visited ukraine's odessa to review the shipment of grain. while they discussed the risk to europe's largest nuclear power plant. the plant has been under russian control since march and the facility is operated by ukrainian staff and guarded by russian forces. it has come under repeated shelling and there are fears of

major infrastructure disaster if it is hit. >> what is true is if it how we propose, the problem will be solved. obviously, the electricity is ukrainian electricity and it is necessary, especially during the winter for ukrainian people. this principle must be fully respected. >> police in nicaragua have arrested a catholic bishop known for his criticism of president ortega. accused of inciting violence. president ortega recently launched a crackdown on dissent within the churches and its charities. mexico's former attorney general has been arrested on charges of false disappearance, torture, and obstruction of du justice. he led the highly criticized

original investigation. on friday, the government called it a cover-up. at least 15 people including five children have been killed in a rocket attack in northern syria. the areas under control of turkey backed opposition fighters. syrian government forces accused of carrying out the attack in retaliation for recent raid. the iraqi leader has held protests in baghdad after friday prayers. demonstrating outside parliament for three weeks now. 10 months after general election,, iraq still has no government. apple says it has discovered a major security flaw in its software and issued an emergency update for all users. the tech giant says the flaw could allow giants to seize full control of its phones, tablets and computers. those are your headlines. inside story is next.

♪ >> the is running dry. dropping water levels in germany's crucial river is threatening its industry as to does that mean for europe's largest economy that has been struggling in recent months? this is "inside story." ♪ mohammed: welcome to the program. many countries are in the grips of intense summer heat waves that have been causing some of the crucial rivers to dry up.

in parts of europe, water ways have dropped to near record levels, disrupting industries. now germany is facing a crisis as the rhine river, its most important shipping route, becomes difficult for ships to navigate. that is not only affecting freight supplies and costs but the energy sector as well. it present another challenge for europe's largest economy at a time of high inflation, global supply chain problems, and natural gas prices. economists are warning this will have an effect on the region's economic growth. we will bring in our guests in a moment, the first dominic kane from cologne. >> it could almost be a picture postcard of the rhine. barges up and down the river as children explore the pebbles on the bank. yet, a closer look shows something else. most summers, most of this area would be submerged, with months of high temperatures and little or no rainfall has changed

things. >> obviously right now with the low water levels, it is the new normal or even worse, the new normal will be even more extreme. we have seen a global temperature increase of 1.2 degrees, global average right now. >> the situation is clear overhead. this satellite image shows the river now. this one how it was in the same place 12 months ago. if the science of what's happening is clear, the practical application of it is causing problems for many different companies. the shipping ones in particular. because they look at the rhine as it is now and have real concerns about how deep it is and how easily they can navigate it. and crucially, how much you -- how much each of their vessels can carry. >> ships usually carry 2200

tons. now they are arriving with 600 tons and that shows. the less water, less cargo. >> with this year of war in ukraine, there's another drawback. with russian coal embargoed across the eu, many companies have paid to ship a known russian alternative instead. as the demand has risen, so the water levels to allow it to be delivered has dwindled. right now, most shipping companies are concentrating on the near future with autumn just weeks away. they expect its cooler, wetter weather to replenish the rhine. but some scientists say that too can bring danger. >> on such a dry soil, the water cannot infiltrate into the soil and will have runoff. the water runs out of the system and produces flash floods, as we

know from california, for example. >> the rhine has run dryer in summer before, but not often. it will have to rain a lot to return the river to its more normal state. dominic kane, al jazeera. mohammed: let's take a closer look at the river rhine. it is one of the most important european rivers, flowing through six countries including switzerland, germany and france. about 300 million tons of goods move through it each year. the rhine is germany's most important shipping route, accounting for 80% of its water freight. officials say barges are now carrying only one quarter to half of the usual capacity. economists say the disruption could slow europe's largest economy. ♪ let's bring in our guests in berlin. a professor of political science at stanford university in berlin. in the hungarian city, nick,

professor of public policy at central european university. and in cologne, the managing director and head of research at the german economic institute. a warm welcome to you all and thank you for joining us today. ulrich, let me start with you. if the rhine becomes too difficult to navigate, how big of an impact does that end up having in germany both politically and economically? >> what we are doing now is speculate to things no one will have an answer about. the one thing is we don't know what the weather will be. the other thing is we never know what social developments will pile up to. it can be a very calm winter and people understand. and those that criticize the government are clear minority and public opinion is in support of the government.

but these are the crucial factors. what we can expect from the government is to prepare. you can also expect large corporations understand how serious the situation is. cannot even produce from climate change because that is the fundamental difference between the weather and climate change. we never know what is the turning point in social developments in which people get upset with the government. mohammed: let me ask you. how much will shipping disruptions impact germany's economy? >> what is happening at the rhine river is the major problem with the germany economy right now. you almost have moments and months where capacities on the rhine is limited. if there are floods, ships are

slowing or totally stopped. the same is true that capacity is reduced or might be stopped for months, weeks. we have heard that before. we heard that for years before. a couple of weeks are fine. it is more the longer term, we have to take care of the longer term development. what is crucial now is we need additional places to replace russian gas. we don't have spare capacities in the train industry for example, we don't have the carriages of the railways anymore. we need the river to transport. mohammed: nick, you heard him talk about the issue of coal and how the flow of coal is in jeopardy. as i understand it, that means there could be shortages of coal-fired power plants in the

next couple of months. what kind of impact with a shortage have for germany, especially as germany is attempting to lessen its dependence on russian gas? >> i think what we are going to see here is what we thought of as an environmental issue really has a broader strategic issue. despite all the uncertainty, a coal shortage will clearly have an effect on energy prices. not just in germany but all of europe. and if there is a shortage of energy, what we are really looking at is the possibility of rationing. we are looking at the possibility of the decline in the german economy which would have an enormous effect on the central european countries as well. what we have heard is that the danger of what you might call a political effect, a populist protest on the left and the right against higher energy prices which may destabilize governments.

a good example of that in italy this summer. mohammed: ulrich, you heard talk about the fact that what's happening with the rhine right has happened before. the last time was in 2018. german industry lost billions of dollars as a result. is the government going to have to come up with some kind of a plan to better deal with this going forward? can they? >> it is not just one factor. we have to focus on this and energy dependence to stabilize the situation. over the beginning of the war until today, there have been so many factors that have affected this situation in general. we expected that if we have a shortage of energy in france, and it turned out they don't have enough water for the power plants, and they needed support

from other countries. we need a european solution. or how do we practically enforced solidarity in case one of the members is getting in trouble? this is just a framework and we don't know yet who at what point is having problems based on what kind of shortage. this is such an unstable equilibrium at the moment that it is too early to tell whether it will be the rhine, whether there will be another shortage. that will have a major effect on energy prices not only on gas. mohammed: i want to take a step back and look at a wider issue. one of the reasons people are so concerned about all this right now is because russia cutting energy supplies to the european union. from your perspective, is the eu coming up with an effective strategy for gradually reducing its dependency on russian gas?

>> yeah, i think it very much is. already this spring, march and april, we saw the beginnings of an outline of a plan which involves replacing some of russia's pipeline gas with gas from other countries. that means norway, south africa. a second element of it is replacing pipeline gas with liquefied natural gas shipped in by boat. i third element is more use of other energy sources -- coal, nuclear, alternative. a fourth is energy savings with guidelines about how far you can cool and heat. there's already a plan coming together here. where i think the tension is going to be is two things. one is the cost. how do we distribute the cost of higher energy? how far did you push it onto the consumer? each european country has come

up with a different model. the second is the issue of solidarity. for example, countries like spain are asking why they should contribute in solidarity to what is in their view the consequence of germans relying on cheap, russian gas which had a security problem element, which was not recognized until now. mohammed: it looked to me like you are nodding along to what some of what nick was saying. did you want to jump in? >> i think it is a big project for europe and germany to reduce its consumption of energy from russia. we got about half from russia last year and the year before. that has already been stopped. we are limiting to zero, going down 20 of all influence from russia and reducing significantly thne gas imports from russia.

that means we need different sources and different capacities. because what is been missing is not just the amount of energy resources, it is also the transport capacity. that is one of the bottlenecks we are facing. it's transport capacities on the rivers and on the railway. it is a difficult bottleneck at that moment. the fact that we cannot use the rhine river in full capacity can make that bottleneck hurtful for a lot of companies, and indeed, can rise energy prices. mohammed: when it comes to this bottleneck and talking about the rhine river, from your perspective, are there concrete measures that can be taken to ensure that the rhine can still be used by ships even during times of drought, let's say?

>> there is no short-term measure you could do, but we are discussing about deepening the rhine river or deepening it for where ships are going. that's a long-term project. the government wants to start a project, but that will be ready in the early 20 30's, so 10 years time. when we are talking about climate change and about less rain and more periods of drought and low levels of water in the river, that is one of the measures which is necessary to ensure the transport capacity is still there. mohammed: ulrich, you talked earlier about how difficult it is to predict what's going to happen. there's no crystal ball you can gaze into to see what's going to happen, but let me ask you about the mood of the german people right now. are they largely supportive of the government policies thus far?

or is real concern growing? >> our government just came into power a year ago. the general spirit was the feeling of change and that was about let's drive germany out of that based economy. the general sentiment is we are doing the right thing. and they not only want to get independent from fossil fuels from russia, but they want to relaunch the german economy based on renewables. from that perspective, there's a lot of acceptance that one could expect, unless there are major problems in the way it is managed. that remains to be seen if there will be major problems. i think germany is another performer. if you just see what happens in finland when they learned what the new situation is about energy security, they activated

plan b and got independent from russia. even italy, who is not known for long-term strategies to prepare, they managed much faster than germany to fill their gas storage is in the situation that is not the easiest. germany right now communicates pretty well when it comes to their energy. whether they will be able to do this through the course of the winter remains to be seen. mohammed: nick, i saw you reacting to what he was saying and it looked like he wanted to contribute. go ahead, please. >> yes, i think this is a very important point. that the real test ahead is the coming four to eight months, it is the winter. what we are looking at here is a situation where i think putin is

trying to create, encourage, exploit as much as he can in europe. that means he has a window of opportunity over the winter where europe is really vulnerable. and that is why think this kind of communication we are getting from germany, saying we need to get through the winter is tremendously important. i think these examples of italy and finland moving to get things into place to cope with the winter is important. i think we often underestimate the asymmetry in the relationship between the eu and russia. the eu is vulnerable in the coming four to eight months. after that, it is russia that is honorable because the gas it used to sell has nowhere else to go. the eu faces a short-term issue, but if we get through that, i think the real problem is russia's. mohammed: nick, to follow up, how likely is it from your perspective we are going to see

germany and the eu, as the other countries relying on energy rationing going forward? >> i think it is a very real possibility. i think they are all trying to avoid it as much as possible. but i think what we see, particularly in germany and austria, is that the government is preparing for some rationing to hit the industry. that is possible. what we are already seeing is that governments across europe are instructing people in charge of public buildings to not cool them beyond 26 degrees in the summer, not heat them beyond 20 in the winter. mohammed: it looked like you had a point you wanted to make. >> the main points here is the rationing of natural gas. it is not so much coping with electricity production, you have to get that organized.

this significant social problem but energy rationing, natural gas rationing for manufacturing companies, that depends on two things. three things. first, getting the 20% from russia that we get right now. how good are we in saving gas and then reusing consumption? the underestimated one is the weather. if we have a mild winter with not too much heating necessities and gas consumption for households, it will be much easier than if it would be a col d winter where gas consumption will be much higher and ther risk of scar city of natural gas is significantly high as well. mohammed: i saw you reacting just now to what he was saying.

you want to jump in? >> as i said, these are the necessary preconditions that the government manages well, communicates well. and that everyone is on board. the social costs for particular groups that are more vulnerable are addressed by the government than what they can do to help them. it could always be that someone has to deal with social unrest. then it is not a matter of criteria, still things can get out of control. if we don't prepare well, that will get out of control. there is no such thing as if we just reach 80% of storage, we will be fine, because it depends on so many other things. it is in the nature of the system that everyone criticizes everything and you cannot know

if it is something that becomes a serious problem of the government. mohammed: you have at the moment war in ukraine. you have a pandemic. you have drought. you have supply chain issues. you have all these factors that are in play right now. how much concern is there right now that europe's largest economy is on the brink of recession? and how likely is a recession? >> we've already started the recovery process after the pandemic. seven months ago, the expectations have been we will have growth rates of about 4% in germany. now, expectations are 1.5% in average for the full year. we've already have had zero growth in the second quarter, probably negative or low

positive growth in the next two quarters. the main issue right now is the high energy prices. yes, i think a recession in germany is quite probable, and especially the manufacturing sector. services are still fine, they are growing in a large part of the economy. but regarding the manufacturing industries, we are looking at the future of negative growth rates. mohammed: we have touched on this a bit in other answers in this conversation today, but i want to take it back to the issues that are affecting the rhine right now. if water levels on the rhine continue to sink, what other alternatives will companies have when it comes to sending freight up and down the waterway? and beyond that, if they are not able to do that, if the companies are scrambling to carry freight in other ways, what are the other ways they can do this? it seems like it would take much more effort, far more trucks to

carry freight than it would with a barge. >> yes, i don't have the details on it but it is clear if you start looking at freight by truck or rail, you are looking at much lesser volumes at much higher prices. i would like to go back to the point about this being an enormous bottleneck. that is the kind of problem we have. in a way, this is about spare capacity but it is difficult to have spare capacity for waterways. i'm afraid they are in a bind. mohammed: nick, we only have about a minute and a half left. from your perspective, are there any concrete steps that can be taken right away that would reduce this bottleneck? >> we really need -- i think the problem is we need to really need to look at using less of the goods that have been transported by water.

i just don't think the alternatives are strong enough or have the capacity to do this enough. the extra point i want to get in here is do not underestimate the impact this will have on central europe, the countries dependent on the german economy. mohammed: we have run out of time. thanks to all of our guests. visiting our website and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. for me and the whole team, bye for now. ♪ço■wwññ■ñ■ñ■ 8ñc

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