great power competition, that leaves out a lot of possible explanations. ♪ anchor: you are watching "al jazeera." our top stories. mikael gorbachev has died at 91. he presided over the end of the cold war and the lifting of the iron curtain, but failed to prevent the collapse of the ussr. president vladimir putin has expressed is deepest condolences and says he will be sending messages to family and friends. the u.n. secretary general

called is a towering leader, while another person calm him -- called a respected states person. >> mikael gorbachev, a member of a new generation, not the communist under stalin, more at technocratic, a man with ideas. and he did have ideas about how to change the soviet union, how to allow it develop and survive. openness. restructuring. glasnost gave people the opportunity to speak out, to talk about their society, talk about their leaders, to examine -- and this is very important --

the history of the soviet union, the horrors people endured under stalin, lenin. anchor: the iaea has been meeting the ukrainian president in kyiv, a delegation due to travel to the nuclear power plant. ukraine and russia have accused each other of selling around the facility, briefly knocked off-line last week. it has drawn concern about a potential disaster. the team has been given access to inspect the site. you can follow those stories on her website. i will be back in more news in half an hour on "al jazeera." , but next is "inside story." do stay with us. ♪

>> the shiite leader announces he is quitting politics, triggering protests and demands for new elections, but is there another reason? can anything contained the political unrest? this is "inside story." ♪ anchor: hello. welcome to the program. after days of violent protests in fighting, a shiite leader has called on supporters to leave the grieving zone. -- green zone. it was triggered by him announcing he is quitting politics. dozens of people were killed.

he is one of iraq's most important figures, wielding influence over public life. he denies involvement in the violence. we have this report. respondent: after -- correspondent: after two days of violence, the green zone is emptying of protesters. a sharp contrast to earlier scenes. violence broke out on monday, was powerful -- a powerful shiite leader announced he would quit politics. a day later, he apologized and called on supporters to stand down and go home. >> [speaking in foreign language] translator: there were some brutal militias, but they should not be vulgar. i believe my supporters are disciplined. that's why if you do not withdraw from the parliament in 60 minutes, i will not be the

leader again. i do not want you to stage a peaceful demonstration. correspondent: it's not the first time supporters have forced their way into the presidential compound. they have been demonstrating for months. >> this is a political rivalry between two different parties. one side of the spectrum is trying to maintain the consensus agreement on democracy. the other side, the centrist movement, trying to revamp the political system in iraq. correspondent: his party won the most parliament seats in october, but failed to form a coalition. he may have told his supporters to stand down, but with such intense rivalry at the heart of iraqi politics, there are fears

it is only a matter of time before chaos and bloodshed is repeated. anchor: he rose to prominence after the end of saddam hussein's leadership in 2003. he is against foreign interference in iraqi politics. his supporters hail mainly from the poorest sectors of society. his faction won the most seats in 2021, but after months of failure to form a government, he ordered his mp's to resign in june. a month later, his supporters occupied parliament and demanded the removal of what they called "corrupt politicians." ♪ so let's bring in our guest in baghdad. the senior foreign policy advisor to the iraqi parliament

and director of house of iragi expertise. in washington dc, a fellow at the washington institute, and former faculty member at the american university of iraq. in doha, a nonresident fellow and middle east analyst, who we just heard from in the previous report. welcome to you all. i would like to start with you. what do you think has been going on in the past 24 hours, how do you assess the events unfolding in baghdad? >> it is always the same conflict happened after the october elections, and the results announced , and they hae the minority in the iraqi parliament, and there was a triple alliance between the

movement and mp's and another -- [indiscernible] eventually had the majority inside the parliament, so at that time, that the majority in the parliament, the prime minister, a speaker, and also his vice-[indiscernible] the real majority of what they call the national majority control the country and tried to have a session to elect the president, and the president should nominate the biggest block, and dominate the prime minister. eventually this happened that

way because the organization stopped any action in the parliament. they asked for the divisive solution -- dissolution of the parliament in early elections. anchor: ok. i want to move on. there is a lot of background. it is complex. we would try to simplify it. he would have been aware of what would likely happened when he announced his resignation in the violence that would follow, would not he? >> it depends on the speculation. there are speculations claiming the resignation or the public announcement to politically resign was an indirect way or attempt to escape accountability from the actions that were to be conducted by the movement, in particular in regards to the armed wing of the movement.

however, now after their most recent speech where they denounced the actions of violent actions or involvement in the recent clashes between them and the armed wings of the political parties within the framework, that has been countered and contradicted. anchor: right, what has he achieved by doing what he has done? >> well, so far, he has achieved a rhetoric battle, which is an overarching battle he has been trying to conduct for many years, the reform revolution sentiment he is practicing against the political class, despite has rightfully mentioned by your guest, despite being a major member of that same political class through various cabinets and parliaments. however, the thing that might be seen that he has not directly

achieved from withdrawing himself from the clashes is he is seen as the strong man who decided to pause or turn off the clashes taking place for the betterment of the people's safety. anchor: right. is it a tactical resignation he will walk back from, do you think? >> he already has. this is not the first time he has spoken about resignation, and definitely not the last time he does not follow through on that promise. we saw him. active, meetings. anchor: he says he is quitting politics? he is still saying he is quitting politics? >> right, but again, he is a master, a wordsmith, so today for example, he edited what he

meant or interpreted his own statement as his resignation is not a full resignation from politics. but again, this is not the first time he has done it. he has done it in the past. sometimes he has disappeared for months. at one point, he was living in iran, but that does not mean he can pack up and go. he has significant influence in perhaps best anchor: before we get into what the next move is, give us some context. this political system in iraq, created by the u.s. and its allies after the u.s.-led invasion, and here we are 17 years later in a state of continued political paralysis, why is it that the political system has not worked? >> because it is based on ethnic issues. it [indiscernible]

you should have the political power, but the political power in the hands of the majority, and the others should not participate in one way or the other. i think this is the most important achievement that he has gained, the postponing of the declaration of the resolution about dissolving parliament. according to my knowledge, it is always like that. he always will withdraw after he will gain what he wants. now, the people saying to me that some political agreement happened yesterday, or let's say today at the early morning, headed by [indiscernible] to convince him that he could take something, and he can withdraw his forces, so

eventually, they say he is always doing something like that. he knows how to play politics, by the way. he actually made the peaceful demonstrations and it is tough to surrender the parliament. he then went to threaten that he would withdraw them and at the end he put -- withdraw, and at the end, he put huge pressure on the judiciary system, ending with the decision, which means it was negative for him. at the same time, it looks like there is a political agreement happened between the separatists and their opponents, which is headed by the [indiscernible] at the end of this day, we know exactly what happened within this 24 hours. anchor: does that mean is more

elections --, next up is more elections? >> it means the conflict will stay there. it does not mean it will end. what we saw yesterday, i think it is the beginning of the real military power arid anchor: it is -- power. anchor: if it's not the end of conflict, where we headed? is there transfer all-out civil war? >> civil war means we expect a nationwide conflict which involves most of the country's communities and political groups. it is clear this is a political rivalry between two prominent rivals within the political elitists, a dispute that has been going on for months, as rightfully mentioned by your guests, over the political statement or depth -- deadlock over who will name the prime minister.

there has been a warning about the armed confrontation that could break out from the political deadlock that has been driven by the movement in the coordination framework, but as previously mentioned, with the announcement of him claiming that he does not favor and will not support any violence, particular violence coming out of his own movement's side to continue this conflict, will not be supported by him. that in itself should reflect towards some stability and calmness within the next few hours or days. however, it seems like the political crisis that has been preventing the country from witnessing a governmental formation will continue. if not, it will worsen. anchor: if it is clear the political system does not work, i don't think we need any more proof that is not the case. the political system has to

change, but how hard will it be to move to a different type of constitution, different political system? >> what you said reflects the public sentiment in iraq, both at the street level, as well as the elite level, that this post-saddam system has run its course, and in part what we see is basically an effort to consolidate power, now that they have cowered and cornered these communities into the sidelines. in the past, the sectarian system was for the three communities to come together, and somehow balance the power, but the sunni areas have for a while bend under -- been under isa control -- isis control, and the kurdistan region, the main

ally, has been marred by internal division. the effort by the two main political parties for basically using it within the shieh house for domination at home. -- shia house for domination home. they see the opportunity to dominate iraq, rollback the federalism. now it is who of the two main shiite camps will control power in iraq. this is also iraqi agency on display, because in past election episodes, the united states and iran were the two major powers in different directions, but now the united states is missing in action, despite the successful election, but largely disengaged after the election. i ran is not want to agitate, because both are looking to

return to the nuclear deal. i think the result, whether it is one or the other, the framework or the current, they will be in power. somehow i ran's bread will be buttered. they are playing with fire. the reason why we can see this brinkmanship happening is because in a way the international community two factors are subsidizing this conflict. one is the high oil prices, appeasing the society because there is enough trickle-down economics to the public. the other is the anti-isis coalition, getting rid of one problem that allows, provide some space for the politicians to engage in this brinkmanship, like yesterday, and it is

possible it could escalate further, and my hope is we have reached the peak, and now we could be headed towards de-escalation, early elections, constitutional amendments, which a lot of people talk about, but i'm not sure this kind of situation is where you want to do a constitutional revision. anchor: right. constitutional amendment, is that possible in this current climate? >> it depends on the political agreement that should happen in those two days. i don't think there will be some sort of -- may be they will be some sort of agreement about the early election dates, the dissolution of the parliament date, and the most important thing is that electoral committee, which is the most important thing for them to work on, on these

issues. again, i think there will be some sort of tactical political agreement that happened yesterday, or what we saw today. it already has some sort of roadmap, escalate, escalate, escalate, then go to the media and say ok, guys, it is not my problem now. we should stop that, after making some political interests that is supposed to be in a way to regain the early election. there actually looking for 100 seats in early elections. anchor: if we are heading for early elections, is not it likely we will get the same results we have had in the past two, which is division and no process forward at all, especially given in the last election of what 43% turnout?

it's not likely to be more than that time around? people are just not engaged in the political system in iraq. >> absolutely. that is the core of the objectives. they were focusing on revising or reestablishing a new political system, and not producing or presenting new elections that would have the same influence and power, the same political interest groups and political parties, and in-depth finding their way to negotiating with the government following the elections, which is very similar to what the coordination framework has been trying to do with its allies across the spectrum by creating a consensus government, and ignores the electoral performance that took place during the elections. again, going back to the demands of the ordinary iraqi citizens, since the outbreak of protests in october 2019 until now, the focus has been weight wider and way more overarching, and figure

done just trying to elect a new government. the focus has been, as you rightfully mentioned on finding new solutions to amend the constitution, finding new ways to not allow political parties or individuals that have been involved in previous corruption allegations, that have been exposed in so many different social and online campaigns by various activists and ngos for the past few years. therefore, the, the, d think that people are hoping to witness in iraq is a new political change that would not involve the same political parties that have been driving and determining his political system, even if we were to expect a constitutional remaking or rewriting. we might even go back to the same problem or the same problems and issues we face during the making or writing of

the current constitution in the early stages of the invasion. we still have many of the prominent political figures and parties and interest groups that were involved or at least present or indirectly playing a vital role in writing articles in that constitution. most notably, the clauses or articles that were in one way or the other paving the way towards the ethnic sectarian distribution, which prevented technocratic, independent, qualified politicians to gain positions based on a roadmap or program that benefits the country in the long term, and not to benefit the interest or sectarian discourse that is utilized and exploited. anchor: you make a very interesting point about ordinary iraqi citizen. in this political vacuum the country is experiencing, the economy and people's lives are

suffering, and all the while, this unseemly squabble what seems to be an increasingly unpopular elite. tell us briefly about how it is for the ordinary iraqi citizen living in iraq with this political backdrop? >> we saw the public grievance and disappointment in the political leadership in the protest movement of 2019. it was a truly indigenous and popular uprising, not targeted at one single group or particular sect, but at the entirety of a system that has failed to translate some $10 billion of oil revenue into economic prosperity, actually even to eradicate poverty let alone creating jobs, while the iraqi political system, because of the competitive nature, every

iraqi citizen through social media and the competitive tv screens know the size and level and name of every corrupt leader , and the millions and billions that get siphoned off out of the country, so the public grievance i think was on display. we also saw the viciousness of the system that the militias, that those in power. they killed 800 protesters in 2019 and wounded 20,000 to 25,000 of them to cling to power. today, we one that wants to dominate the political scene, the ever higher oil prices, and the coordination, using populism , using the deep state. of course the one factor that is absent is the public.

again, i think these political elite is playing with fire by ignoring the public, because in 2019, these were peaceful protests. again, the higher -- ire of civil war is about this militia against that militia, but i think every iraqi household has at least one or two guns, so the main worry is when the public starts to rise up both houses in a shakespearean way of a curse on both houses. i think that is the seriousness moving forward, given how aloof and how does -- disregarding the current leadership are of the public. anchor: ok, we will watch closely what happens in the coming days, weeks, months. gentlemen, we will have to leave it there. thank you for watching.

you can see this program any time by visiting our website, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can join the conversation on twitter. for me and the whole team here, it is goodbye for now. ♪

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