al jazeera, beirut. ♪ >> this is al jazeera and these are the top stories. mourners in scotland have paid their last respects to queen elizabeth. her coffin is resting at edinburgh before traveling to london late on tuesday. earlier the queens children performed a traditional vigil around her coffin at st. charles cathedral. britain's new king stood for 10 minutes with his siblings. thousands lined the streets of

the scottish capital as king charles and his siblings escorted her coffin through edinburgh in a historic procession. there has been fighting along the border between rivals. intense shelling and artillery fire on three military positions by the azerbaijani army but azerbaijan says armenia started by delaying the signing of the peace treaty that had been agreed by both sides in august. russia is acknowledging their forces have been outnumbered in the last week with ukraine taking back land. since september, ukrainian troops have been advancing rapidly. a production zone -- protection

zone is to be created around a power plant in ukraine. there have been repeatedly raised fears of a major disaster. those are the headlines. the news will continue here on al jazeera after inside story, up next. ♪ >> ukraine says it has regained territory across several regions, including kharkiv. a setback for russia. is it a turning point in the conflict, and how will moscow respond? this is inside story. ♪

hello and welcome to the program. after nearly seven months of fighting, ukraine has begun regaining some territory they lost to russia. they say their forces are continuing to rapidly advance in several areas, including northern kharkiv in the last few days, forcing moscow to pull back forces. it raises the question of how far they can go. in response, ukraine says russia is attacking the power and water supplies in kharkiv. officials say missile strikes caused blackouts in several areas, including the main city. power was restored in some areas by midnight on sunday but kharkiv remained in darkness. 9 million people were affected, including in areas controlled by russia.

despite days of battlefield setbacks, the kremlin insist the war is on track, saying that special military operation is underway and will continue until their goals are achieved. our reporter has more from kharkiv. reporter: since the beginning of september, the ukrainian army has been carrying out a counteroffensive in the northeast of the country, taking everyone by surprise, especially when it comes to the speed at which it has been able to recapture territory occupied by the russian army. 3000 square kilometers, according to the chief of staff. the russians on their side say they are pulling out and regrouping to concentrate on the donbass region but it seems ukraine managed to trick the russians in the sense that they

were talking about a counteroffensive in the southern part of the region and some said the russians pulled out trips from this side to beef up troops on the others. at this point, the ukrainian has reached some strategic towns and they fully control them. that is a big blow for russia, who was using those places as hubs. the question now is if they will be able to hold the territory and what will russia do next. russia shows it will continue hitting cities. critical infrastructure was struck plunging kharkiv and other regions in darkness. yesterday people were wondering what would be the next move.

>> russia has acknowledged losses in the kharkiv region. an official says ukrainian forces outnumbered russian troops in the counteroffensive. sincerely september, ukrainian troops have advanced rapidly. areas that took months for russia to seize have been retaken in days. ukraine says they gained in the south at a slower pace. ♪ let's bring in our guests. we have a political commentator and professor at the national university of kyiv moquila academy. in moscow, victor is a lead expert at the center for actual politics. in oxford, samuel ramani from

the royal united services institute. thank you for joining us. some remarkable advances by ukraine. how have they been able to make breakthroughs so quickly? >> we have been preparing for this for a very long time. as you mentioned, we were expecting a counterattack in the south. clearly that diverted russian forces away from defending the northeastern part. it's important to note the people on the ground liberating the areas are not regular army soldiers, they are volunteers. they have received significant amounts of training in the last six months and are very motivated to liberate their

country. the fact that it has gone quickly has surprised not only observers, but to ukrainian central command. they expected the offensive to last until the end of september and it has gone a lot faster than expected. a lot of motivated people. they have a lot of support from the local population. they don't want to be occupied by russians and see ukrainian forces as liberators. and the ukrainians have a strategy of military action that has been proven effective. it is a strategy of decentralization. a network of actions. central commanders give general directions and then the people

on the ground make the decisions. >> i imagine the military support provided by the west has helped but we will come back to that in a minute. victor in moscow, russia's admission of withdrawal is significant because it was a major military hub for moscow. russians say they are regrouping . how is this viewed in moscow? how is the kremlin explaining the setbacks? >> this is not the first setback in russia's military operation in ukraine in the last six months. several months ago they were treated from the areas of kyiv they had controlled. later on the island had been

lost by russian forces and now we are witnessing a retreat from areas of a region that russian forces had controlled. it is being openly discussed on various panels and on russian television and in russian media. ththere are different reactions, but what is important to say is that russia will not be defeated on the battlefield. russia is a great power and cannot afford a military defeat. >> but how is the russian defense ministry explaining and justifying the retreats? >> they are being tightlipped. they say the retreat happens to prevent a large loss of

personnel and that is about it. but it's being discussed on various levels and it is important to note that this is not the end of russia's efforts in ukraine and they will continue with the special military operation in ukraine until it either reaches the goals set in the beginning, which seems difficult at this point, or if a diplomatic solution is found that involves russia, the west, and ukraine. yesterday the russian foreign minister says russia is still looking for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. >> let me bring in samuel ramani. as victor said, it's not the

first time russian forces have retreated. how significant are the gains by ukraine? is it more significant than the russian retreat in march from kyiv? >> that was a major recalibration of the mission. it ended the first part of the special military operation and began phase two. both are significant for different reasons. regarding the recent situation in kharkiv, the russian military establishment appears to have been blindsided.

it appeared they were caught off guard and now they have lost their supply lines. this coincides with ukraine -- russia and donetsk who will be fighting an offensive operation. >> what are russians missing now strategically? >> supply lines. they are going to have to figure this out. we've seen helicopters that can carry hundreds of personnel being carried over to bring in reinforcements to kharkiv. there are having difficulty in terms of making sure they don't repeat what happened incurs on

where 20,000 troops are stuck. that's the initial problem right now. where will the ukrainian counteroffensive happened next? [indiscernible] it might come from multiple places or just from one, leaving russia blindsided again. >> let's look the support ukraine has gone from the west. their recent gains have been largely because of the huge amount of western military aid they received in the last few months. in total more than 30 countries have provided military equipment. the u.s. has contributed the most by far. at least $12.5 billion in military aid. poland supplied weapons worth

$1.83 billion. u.k. pledged the third largest about with weapons worth $1.36 billion. ukraine's president has appealed for more, sing the monthly cost of defense was $5 billion. my caillou, i saw you shaking your head. you do not seem to agree with me that western support has helped ukraine regain territory. >> i agree that that support is key and we are receiving and grateful to be receiving a large amount of ammunition and equipment. this is one reason why i disagree with victor who says the russian army cannot be defeated on the battlefield. it can and we will see it in the next little while. the important thing to understand is that this gain in kharkiv was not really supported

by western military equipment. the equipment that came into the country was concentrated largely in the south and has been used for multiple rocket systems have been used for attacking supply lines in the south. in the northeast part of the country we have seen a battle with old soviet era equipment. the territorial brigades are the ones fighting. yes they have some mobile equipment and javelins supplied at the beginning of the war but it's not really recent. what i think is phenomenal is if you look at the amount of captured russian equipment in the last two weeks, the number of personnel carriers, tank

weapons and ammunition outnumbers the amount of aid we've gotten from the west. so the largest supplier of military equipment to ukrainian armed forces at the moment is russia. victor: russia cannot afford defeat and ukraine because that would mean very serious political consequences in russia. and of course russia will do everything i can -- everything they can to prevent defeat. >> how does russia do that when they seem to be short on weapons, ammunition, and soldiers? how do they achieve that objective of the special operation, as they call it? >> the initial objectives outlined by putin in february

are difficult to achieve at this point. the objectives now are more limited but we see bellicose rhetoric from both sides that cannot be realized on the front. when we discuss russian objectives from february and how unlikely it is they will be achieved in the near future, we also have to look at the objectives the ukrainian officials are putting in front of their forces and how unrealistic they are. ukrainian officials say their objective is to take crimea or other regions. >> michael disagrees with you. your response.

[crosstalk] >> it is not about taking crimea . it is about liberating that area that has been occupied by russia since 2014. it has nothing to do with ethnicity or language. one of the original objectives of the special military operation, in fact invasion, was to militarization. -- was demilitarization. and you are doing it. russia is applying ukraine's side with military weapons. the objective on ukraine side has not changed since 2014. crimea is ukrainian. >> samuel, i would like to let

victor respond before i bring you in. do people still think this is a special operation in russia? because it looks like an all out war. >> official ukrainian statements are the wish to take back crimea are in middle -- are militarily unrealistic. both sides are setting up unrealistic objectives and it seems one way still open to resolve the conflict is diplomatic solution but that can only be achieved if the west gives it a green light. ukraine and the west brought an end to the negotiation process launched in belarus in march and

continued in turkey. ukraine is the side that left negotiations. >> ok. accusations and counter accusations. samuel, do you think now is a time to resume talks to end the conflict, or is ukraine in a position where they feel they no longer need to negotiate? >> i think there has been radicalization on both sides. looking at rhetoric in russia after the defeat in kharkiv, the security council talking about how the ultimate goal is the capitulation of ukraine. on the other hand, ukraine saying there is no use in talking with russia because we have to liberate all territory, including crimea. given the fact that there is extreme rhetoric on both sides i

think it will be unlikely for diplomatic dialogue. russian terms in particular seem to be unrealistic. they are looking at zelenskyy advocating and having a regime change. there is a sense of maximal is him coming from russia. turkey has expressed optimism. but they seem to be standing alone and that. i think ukraine now feels confident that they can win the war, even if it takes months or longer. i think it's going to be fought on the battlefield. >> how safe is putin in this? there seem to be >> now in the

narrative -- there seem to be cracks in the narrative. >> and those are coming from the hardliners. those who want to see russia all the way to kyiv and want to see russia win the war and many who call now for total mobilization and one a reevaluation of russian ministry of defense a strategy. putin seems to be shielded from some criticism. it's going to the defense minister. >> victor there is talk of mobilization from the hawks in russia. will we see a construction --

conscription of russian soldiers and are they ready to fight for russia? >> the russian government is not looking to impose mass mobilization in russia. that would have significant consequences for russian economy and take a number of able-bodied men from other positions and put them on the front. russia would also have to provide all the new conscripts with weapon systems and other military equipment. at this point it's not available. >> so how are they going to win the war? >> at this point it's important for russia not to be defeated and they will do their utmost not to suffer a defeat in ukraine. lack of defeat in ukraine is not

the same as achieving all the goals that were set from her 24th. -- were set february 24. so the goals set by both side are unrealistic. it's hard to imagine in the near future that russia will be able to get a regime change in kyiv and unlikely the ukrainian side will achieve all the military goals they are setting. the chances of regaining crimea are next to none. >> what else will likely shape the situation on the ground and elsewhere? >> i am very pleased that according to our colleagues in moscow at the goal now of the russians as not to win the war, it is not to be defeated.

that was a poignant point made by victor. the ukrainian side is looking for victory. victory means regaining the territory that has been illegally occupied by russia, including all the territories that were demarcated and have been internationally recognized since 1991. it includes crimea. whether it is resolved 100% militarily, we will see. the war is not point to end soon. it will probably last for a while longer but i have no doubt that the turning point has been reached. >> gentlemen, thank you very much for a great discussion. and thank you too for watching. you can always watch this program again anytime by visiting our website at aljazeera.com. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook.com/ajinsidestory.

you can of course also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me and the whole team here in doha, thanks for watching. bye for now. ♪

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