>> this is al-jazeera. this is the stop rories now. ukrainian forces have advanced into russian-occupied territory, raising a flag in a taken village. this could threaten supply lines for thousands of russian troops. >> today the offensive movement of our army and defenders continued. there are new liberated settlements in several regions. fierce fighting continues in many arias on the frontline. but more and more occupiers are trying to escape. the enemy army is suffering more and more losses.

and there is a growing understanding that russia made a mistake by starting the war against ukraine. >> russia's lower house of parliament approved the annexation of four regions in ukraine. it follow what is ukraine and its allies describe as sham referendums just over a week ago. north korea appears to have fired a ballistic missile at northern japan. japanese government warned citizens to take cover and was forced to suspend some train operations in northern regions. the missile was launched off the east coast and fell into the pacific ocean. it was the fifth round of weapons testing in the last 10 days. iran's supreme leader has blamed the u.s. and israel for anti-government protests sweeping the country which have left dozens dead. in its first public comment, the ayatollah khomeini said riots have been engineered by iran's enemies. indonesian police chief and

several top officers have been sacked after saturday's stadium stampede in. at least 125 people were killed in the disaster including 32 children. the british pound p has recovered some of its value against the dollar after the u.k. government was forced into a dramatic u-turn. they abandoned plans to reduce the tax paid by the highest earners. an investigation into the u.s. national women's soccer league found that emotional abuse and sexual misconduct are systemic in the sport. reviews were launched after two former players came forward with allegations of harassment and abuse. that's the headlines. more after "inside story." ♪

♪ >> what is the japanese prime minister's military strategy? he said his government will create a newational security strategy and he's pledged more spending on defense capabilities. but what his intention and will it work? this is "inside story." ♪ >> hello and welcome to the program. japan is scrambling to boost its military strength to counter what tokyo sees as rising threats from china. in his national address on monday, prime minister fumio kishida spoke of his goals to bolster the military over the

next five years but with the weak yen he's having trouble finding funds to do it. his pred saysor focusing on shoring up reserves but kishida needs to gain more support for his policies. >> in an integrated and strong manner we'll consider the defense keapbilities which will be necessary for the defense capabilities in the next five years as well as the budget. by the end of the year we'll formulate a new national security strategy which we have been discussing. >> along with china, the threat from north korea remains a top concern to japan. for the first time pyongyang launched four rockets in one week, something japan's vice defense minister says is unacceptable. >> since the beginning of this year, north korea has repeatedly launched missiles with

unprecedented frequency and in new ways, including provocation, escalating launches, such as launching ballistic missiles four times in quick succession in the last week alone. north korea's actions threaten the peace and safety not only for japan but also the region and the international community and are absolutely impermissible. >> japan's goal of military expansion is expensive and controversial. the defense min city -- ministry requested $43 billion for the 2023 fiscal year. that's the highest request in history and more than 1% of the country's g.d.p. it also includes introdeution he pre-effortive strike capabilities and plans to further promote energy. this could violate the country's pacifist constitution and raises safety concerns from the fukushima nuclear disaster. japan doesn't plan on growing its military alone. he hopes to maintain dialogue

with china while working with the u.s. and other allies to promote indo-pacific security. there is much to discuss with our guests. professor at the university, craig mark, a professor on the faculty of international studies. gentlemen, welcome to the program. just how controversial are japan's military spending plans for the next year? we've heard a lot about this $43 billion figure, the highest ever, just over 1% of g.d.b. but hang on. previous administrations have tended to keep defense spending around the 1% g.d.p. mark. what's so remarkable about this budget? >> well, 1% had been, what one would call the defense line for many people, acceptance.

this was thought to be a rain that shouldn't be crossed. but you know, with this very strong aggression that we're getting from china, and also from north korea, which in my opinion is virtually china, as north korea's big daddy is china, and seeing what's happening in europe as well, i think it's very, very clear, along with the fact that during the days of trump, you know, there's been a lot of, i should say, awareness about, you know, increasing japan's defense spending. so i wouldn't be surprised, you know, if it goes well, easily beyond 1%. certainly targeting the 2% line which is the request of the previous president of the united states. >> craig, do you agree with that? will japan's defense spending increase to 2% of the g.d.p. in coming years? why does the prime minister and his party think it's so important for them to do so?

>> well, as has been said, they're very much aware of the potential instability in the region with the rising power of china, the potential threat from north korea, and of course the divisions with russia since the ukraine war. and there's been discussions within the liberal democratic party within the various policy committees of raising it to 2%, possibly by the end of the decade. so this incremental increase in defense spending which has been happening every year since the abe administration returned to power in 2012, that trend just is going to keep on accelerating. and if japan does reach 2% of g.d.p. that'll make it the third largest military spender in the world after the u.s. and china. currently it's rated about 8,

spending around $50 billion u.s. per year. so that will be a radical departure and also as mentioned in the intro, the capabilities of the defense forces are going to change. the counterstrike capability, extending the range of missiles, so they can potentially be used to -- as the defense forces say, deter attacks on japan. of other 1,000 kilometer ranges. the restructured the self-defense forces to have more deployments in the south in these islands of south offing on gnaw what which -- okinawa. increasing a whole range of capabilities in cyber warfare, all these very radical changes which are going to come about throughout the rest of this.

>> picking up from what craig was saying there, it is perhaps understandable that japan would need a strong deterrence but why would it need counterstrike capabilities? is that not at odds with the country's pacifist constitution? >> the meaning of the pacifist constitution has been altered and now we are at a point where we can and will defend, for example, our allied forces. so that has been rectified. and also, i think many people are starting to realize that, you know, by keeping the ninth amendment which is our peacekeeping bible that doesn't mean that, you know, foreign forces will be staying out. on the contrary, it's totally the other way around. you saw very recently action by north korea. the more you leave them alone, the more they want to be appearing on the stage.

now they've been throwing over 28 missiles, i think, last year and this year already a record breaking number. basically to attract attention and also having china as their, you know, backbone. they do not have to worry about sanctions because we talk about sanctions and north korea, but the fact of the matter is, 90% of trade is done with china. so you know, sanction by other countries aren't really going to hurt north korea. and having this big hegemony between the united states, china and japan clearly siding with the united states, especially in the days of mr. abe, is very, very clear that, you know, north koreans are virtually, you know, able to be the bad boy in the region, thanks to the backup of china. so these issues are starting to gradually sink in to many of the japanese and i think for that

reason, there'll be a clear backup. that said, of course, there's an asthawmtion economic situation will be stable. and that is a big question. >> we're going to come on to the economic situation in a little while. first, japan's new defense minister said the international community is, quote, entering a new era of crisis. and that japan needed to be adequately ready to counter this. what did he mean? who or what does japan see as the main threats to its security right now? >> well, as they mentioned, north korea is obviously a direct threatwits missile testing and there's even rumors going around in the south korean media that maybe they might conduct an underground nuclear test in the next couple of weeks. that would definitely focus the attention on the potential threat of north korea. but of course china is the main

hedge monic -- hegemonic challenger. in august we had the taiwan straits crisis where the response the visit by house speaker nancy pelosi, think chinese military lawrvelged their largest scale military exercises around the watt oars of taiwan. they tested missiles that landed in the economic exclusion joan around japan. that's the biggest long-term threat which japan is considering as well as russia in the wake of the ukraine war. prime minister kishida has strongly condemned the invasion and japan has given $1 billion in aid and fund, financial support, as well as nonlethal military equipment to ukraine. so those are the main threats which are being used to justify

this radical restructuring of the self-defense forces and this huge increase, long-term, into the defense budget. and that will require greater cooperation with japan's security partners. and that of course includes the united states which has the largest basing of troops and military forces outside of the united states in the bases it has throughout japan, mostly okinawa. interestingly, japan is increasing its security cooperation with other countries, australia in particular. the beginning of this year, the reciprocal access agreement was signed and that means australian forces and japanese forces will operate much more closely together and just last weekend there was a meeting of trilateral strategic dialogue defense ministers in hawaii and they have also committed to a

shared strategy in the indo-pacific region, much more closer trial, military exercises, and even in the philippines, self-defense forces joined south korea, philippine and american forces and also very importantly south korea. there was a trilateral exercise between the united states, south korea, and the japanese maritime self-defense ministers. so all these things concurrently happening to increase this trend of greater japanese activity by the self-defense forces. >> i have a feeling i know the answer having listened to what craig said about china's increasing assertiveness and the threat from north korea and everything else he was saying, there's no doubt in your mind that japan is not using what it perceives as the current leejal and global threats as an excuse, just an excuse to bolster military capabilities, it is pursuing a perfectly reasonable

set of defense policies given the deteriorating security environment in the indo-pacific region? >> it's basically -- i think japan has been excessively neutral in many senses, but i think it's very, very clear now that, especially as craig was mentioning, the forming of quad and also the bilateral agreements and also with south korea, it's very, very clear that, you know, japan will be siding by the united states and the free world. if you look at the trade side that's also very, very clear. in fact, they are very closely correlated. you know. especially with the supply chain. the global supply chain problem that we're all facing right now which is in fact a very big reason for this inflation we're all facing. we basically have to go for security rather than just the

effectiveness. and that is causing the very big cost. partly we have to truncate china from many of our supply chain. we're moving from just in time g.i.t., in j.i.c., which is just in case. as we saw that would be needed during, you know, especially days of pandemic. and the successive inclination or reliance on china is a very dangerous thing. so maybe m countries have basically clarified japan included, which side they should stick on and japan certainly is one of them. you know, the military issue in japan has very close correlation with, you know, political issue and economic issues involved. >> we talked about japan's pacifist constitution. the defense agreement with australia. among other neighbors. what does this all mean for japan's relations with its regional neighbors?

and also its overseas allies, the u.s. in particular. can japan no longer rely on the u.s. to defend it? >> well, the experience of the trump administration was a big shock for allies like japan and australia too. and so this has to be part of the background thinking of why japan is increasing its own self-defense forces and why it's reaching out to other partners like australia, but also india and the quad, although this concern about india still remaining close to russia. but especially in southeast asia. there's been a big push by japan to increase its foreign aid into the asean countries and investment, particularly with countries like indonesia but also increasing security cooperation with the

philippines, with vietnam, the coast guard, the japanese coast guard in particular, there's lots of training and they've supplied vessels and shipping to vietnam and the philippines. but also with other countries in the region. that has been a big focus on japan to try and balance against what is seen as the rising competition of china. but of course china is the largest trading partner still of japan and japan has been concerned about the ongoing lockdowns and the slowing of the chinese economy and so in his speech today, he did ceja pan does want to maintain stable relations with china, it's the 50th anniversary of the restoration of diplomatic relations between japan and people's republic of china. and one hope that japan has is

that chinese tourists will return. that was a big focus of prime minister kishida's speech today. this month, the covid restrictions put in place will be abolished and they are hoping to restore numbers of tourism to precovid levels very quickly and the chinese market is very important for that. so that's going to be a big concern for kishida. can he keep a stable relationship with china and can he use that relationship to help rebuild the economy. >> craig was saying the speech wasn't all about defense on monday. what did you make of the speech? perhaps more importantly, what will the public have made of it? he said that his number one priority was to revitalize the economy. you and i have been talking on television for a very long time about the japanese economy. how many prime ministers before him have said that? can it be done?

are his policy he is the right ones to do it? >> it would be pretty difficult. the reason for it being that he does have what we call the golden three years. in other words he doesn't have any obstacles such as elections for the next three years. he could basely touch reason structural transition and he should. but i'm not sure if he can actually do that. he can talk about, as craig was saying about trying to increase the imbalance -- einbound tourism, maybe increase five trillion yen or. so still compared to u.s., 8%, and europe, more than that, japan is only 2%. it really hasn't hit us yet. the reason for this is in japan it's cost push inflation. it doesn't seem serious. but considering the weakness of the yen this will hurt the japanese economy big time.

until now weakened yen was good for yap these exporters, so it flourished, the system as a whole. that was one big success by mr. abe on his first arrow. but considering the fact that this excessive move, this quick acceleration in the yen is -- acceleration of the dollar, i'm sorry, weakening of the yen, is going to hurt japan in various ways. it could hinder many of the plans he was talking about today which is particularly into some of the political, domestic political issues but the fact of the matter is is that many people tend to think, oh, we can go on forever. as we may have all the funds. because we have the big daddy bank of japan. let's face it, bank of japan has been buying back j.g.b., y pan government bond, over 170 trillion yen over the last two years. and their current account has

swelled to almost 600 trillion yen. if you see a 1% increase in interest rate in order to fight off the weakened yen, their payoff will be over five trillion. that wipes out his story about inbound benefit that's going to come out. moreover, the net worth of bank of japan is only 10 trillion. so bank of japan does not have the deep pocket like many people think. so this is a very important part of our economic plans going forward. as the bank of japan's stability isn't as stable as many people want it to be. so there are lots of problems ahead for mr. kishida. and to basically conduct his, you know, maybe it's fine. he hasn't gone to concrete measures. there will be a lot of obstacles, i think, ahead for him, especially during this turmoil we're seeing externally. >> craig, was monday's speech enough to restore public faith in the prime minister's

government? there was a poll in the newspaper on monday that showed disapproval for kishida's administration was as high as 50%. could his government recover from something like that? what's done more damage to the prime minister, inflation and the weak yen? state of the economy? or his party's links to the unification, the controversy over abe's funeral? >> i think the church revelations in the wake of abe's assassination and the funeral itself have seen the big drop in the approval rating for prime minister kishida's government. people were already concerned about the inflation even before the july election, which saw the ruling party fairly comfortably returned. but the revelations of the

unification church links to at least half of the members in the l.d.p. that's been a huge shock and it has real yes reverb braited -- reverberated throughout the political environment in kra pan. that's why mr. kishida today, he condition mention it a lot but said he was aware of the problems that had occurred and he was -- made some mention of maybe tinkering with consumer protection laws to try and make sure the people that get ripped off by unification church in future, and he will be hoping that with at least another three years to go before the next lower house election that that will blow over. but the opposition parties, relatively weak as they are, will keep pushing on this issue and that's probably going to dog mr. kishida for quite some time to come.

potentially if approval ratings remain low and the economic challenges don't come about, given all the huge structural challenges, mr. kishida could find himself confronted by rivals even before the next election in 2025. >> we've got about a minute left. do you want to pick on that? i know you said he's got three years but can he turn his government's fortunes around in that time? >> i think a lot of the ball is in the corporate sides. he was talking about changing lifelong employment to meriting oncy which i think is something japan needs and will increase the wage overall. but the question is, can the japanese government, you know, propel the corporations to do that? i mean, in the days of mr. abe, it's the corporations that didn't make the move. so risk taking capability, an ability by japanese corporations

will be for the government, we've been pleading about the government far too much but we should realize the ball is definitely in the court of the corporations, especially this time around. >> there we must end it. many thanks for being with us. and thank you for watching. you can see the program at any time by going to the website at aljazeera.com. join us on our facebook page for more discussion, face b.c..com/ajinsidestory. and find us on twitter. thanks for being with us. bye for now. ♪ñl o■ñ■ñ■ñ■ñ■ñ■ñ■ñ■ñ■ñ■ñ