♪ >> you are watching out to zero -- al jazeera. haiti's government is appealing for international armed forces to help with a deteriorating security situation. people have been protesting for weeks after the prime minister handed fuel subsidies, pushing prices. gangs surrounding a fuel terminal have refused to leave until he steps down. the situation in haiti is raising concern. >> the foreign minister made a

plea here because he said that the economic situation in haiti is catastrophic, as he put it. he explained to members of the assembly that gangs are controlling at least one fuel terminal, which is causing great havoc in haiti because it is affecting the distribution of drinking water, transportation, and the well-functioning of hospitals. so he formally asked for assistance for an international police force. >> eu leaders have failed to reach a consensus on capping gas prices. the european commission president has proposed that member states bid for supplies together. prices have been going up since the start of the were in ukraine. ukrainian authorities say at least 11 people have died in strike some residential

buildings in zachary jeff. the -- the nobel peace prize has been awarded to a jailed belarusian. they were hailed by the committee for their commitment to human rights. the u.s. has imposed more export controls on chinese tech companies. 30 phones have been added to a so-called unverified list. it prevents beijing from accessing advanced semi conductor technology. more news in a half-hour. you can follow those stories on aljazeera.com. "inside story" is next. ♪

laura: what is behind north korea's latest missile tests? pyongyang has launched six rockets into two weeks, including one that flew over japan. what message is north korea sending, and how should the international community respond? this is "inside story." ♪ laura: hello and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle. north korea has dramatically increased the number of its missile tests. it has conducted six in just 12 days, including the first intermediate range ballistic missile test in five years. it landed in the sea of japan on

tuesday. that launch prompted the japanese government to warn people to seek shelter. the u.s., japanese, and south korean militaries responded with live fire drills a day later, and the pentagon repositioned an aircraft carrier off the korean peninsula. pyongyang reacted by launching two more missiles on thursday, sending fighter jets near its border with south korea. in a phone call, the japanese and south korean leaders condemned the escalation. the pentagon says the latest tests pose a serious threat to the region's stability. >> clearly north korea is testing its missile program. it is looking to adapt. the issue is these actions are provocative, they are dangerous, and as you know, north korea has not committed to any type of constructive or strategic dialogue. >> at the un security council,

the u.s. accused china and russia of enabling kim jong-un by blocking further sanctions. but beijing said it is washington that is provoking pyongyang. >> on the nuclear issue, the u.s. is playing by a double standard. it is engaged in political maneuvering, poisoning the security environment. against this backdrop, the heightened attention on the peninsula should not come as a surprise. laura: the missile tests have increased fears that north korea will soon conduct another nuclear test. the u.s.-based center for strategic and international studies released these satellites of a test site from late september. analysts say they shall work on a tunnel which could be part of an expansion of testing capabilities. the u.n. is tracking north korea's ballistic missile tests and says it has carried out around 40 this year, a record number.

in the last 40 years, pyongyang has conducted more than 200 missile launches and six nuclear tests, and more than half of those have been since kim jong-un came to power. let's bring in our guests now to discuss this further. in seoul, we have uk yang. in tokyo, alastair morgan, a professor at the university of tokyo and former british ambassador to north korea. in d.c., mark fitzpatrick, a former deputy u.s. assistant secretary of state. a very warm welcome to all of you. let's start by looking at the timing of these tests. bogeying -- uk yang, why are we seeing a barrage of missile tests right now? uk: we have to see the context. as you see, last september,

north korea announced its nuclear policy act. the law describes a nuclear doctrine that kim jong-un has been claiming since the april military parade this year. and it is intended to signal u.s. and south korea that their nuclear forces are now operational. and by shooting all these missiles, they are saying they are ready. laura: alistair, how concerning is it for japan that this intermediate range ballistic missile flew, first of all, over its land, but second of all, it was unannounced? alastair: i think the fact that it was unannounced is a concern for everybody. there is an obligation to

announce missile launches, which the dprk always ignores. in terms of japan, clearly a gave rise to -- it gave rise to notices to citizens in northern japan and some other places that the missile was flown over. clearly the missile went beyond japan and the range of the missile was probably intended to demonstrate a capability to reach guam. but japan is a neighbor of north korea, well aware that there are systems in north korea that they can strike -- that can strike japan. and the nuclear posture that the north koreans have announced makes it clear that if nonnuclear powers are associated in the nuclear power in any action against the dprk, then they can become targets as well. of course it is a reason for particular concern for japan.

laura: and how much of a concern is it for the u.s.? is this kim jong-un testing biden? mark: the united states is certainly concerned with the growing modernization and expansion of north korea's nuclear program. a nuclear weapon surely could fit in the nosecone of the missile that was just launched. the fact that the trajectory of the missile launch was more normal than the previous test that went up and then down. north korea is refining its ability to hit u.s. spaces. the united states is firm and its defense of japan and south korea, but aware that north korea is trying to say that if there is a conflict on the korean peninsula, north korea would try to ward the u.s. off by saying it could hit any u.s.

cities or basis if the united states were to be engaged in such a conflict. i don't think the united states will be deterred by that, but it is certainly an escalation. laura: it is worth noting that this is not the longest range missile that north korea has in its arsenal. mark: no, they've got intercontinental ballistic missiles they successfully tested in 2017. i expect that we will see another such test of an icbm in the coming months. laura: is that the feeling in south korea? give us an idea of the policy there is from the current government towards the north. uk: the south korean government is trying to deter north korean provocation.

we are trying to do a lesser stance. for example, yesterday, north korea conducted an exercise with a fighter and bomber plane, and our air force launched fighters to intercept any threat. laura: just trying to get an idea of what his policy is towards the north, because his predecessor attempted engagement, and that did not get far. what is the current government's approach? uk: we are trying to both talk and deal with any threat. the president clearly said that

if north korea wants to talk to us, and we will provide any help north korea needs, president yoon called it a gracious unity, only if north korea is coming to the negotiation. but when north korea tried this kind of provocation and south korea will stand firm with the u.s., and also, as you see, what has come from the previous government is korea is now also working with japan. government has its own problem, but yoon

[indiscernible] laura: is there enough international cooperation on this? going back to the times of the six party talks on denuclearization, when there was a united front dealing with north korea, now it appears to be so fractured. how much coordination is there? what more is needed? alastair: i would just like to take up the point that was made about collaboration between japan and the republic of korea. i think that is important. and in terms of deterrence of north korea, clearly underlining what is often called the ironclad nature of the u.s. alliance with japan, with the republic, is important. looking at the wider international community that have been -- there is an obligation on every member state to implement the united nations

security council sanctions. there has been much action by many member states. it is very obvious at the moment there is polarization on the security council, and there is not the unanimity that there was in, for instance, decision-making on introducing further sanctions in the security council. in terms of what is needed, clearly an effective security council is vital for many issues in international peace and security. it is a major concern that the unity is not there. i don't believe that any actual further coalition of international members days -- international member states is going to deter north korea from

its determination to maintain its ballistic missile programs and nuclear programs, but it is nevertheless the coordination is still required that the deterrent effect is there and that sanctions bite. the message is sent not just to north korea, but to other countries as well. laura: but why is that? if there was unity on further sanctions, but they did not make any difference, what would be the point? alastair: i did not say it would not make any difference, i said i did not think it would change the determination of the dprk to maintain its programs. i think that in the long run, maintaining sanctions and actually enforcing more effectively the current sanctions and in deed -- and indeed, should be security council decide to apply new

sanctions, does increase the pressure on the dprk, the dprk cannot achieve any real meaningful economic growth under sanctions, even though it has, in effect, sanctioned itself with its covid measures. that, in the long run, does have an impact. it creates a pressure that can then be used for diplomacy. but at the moment, it marks that there is no indication that the dprk is ready to respond to the diplomacy. i will also say that the sanctions actually can delay the continued rollout of the program, even though it is very clear that the dprk has reached a high level of development and has high levels of indigenous capacity. laura: i think we have seen it in the past, haven't we, mark,

that sanctions only really work when china is fully on board, because they supply a lot fuel and food to the dprk. to what extent is the u.s. coordinating or able to coordinate with china on this front? mark: we are not able to coordinate at all. china and russia have refused to new u.n. sanctions earlier this year. china has really relaxed its implementation of existing sanctions. given all the areas in which the united states and china are at odds, china is in no mood to cooperate with the united states with regard to north korea. i do not think we can expect much there. if we are looking at other tools in the toolbox, there is one that might actually be effective .

we talked about sending messages, let's send an actual message to north korea. in the past, several years ago, south korea was very effective when it turned down huge loudspeakers along the border of the dmc and broadcast 10 kilometers into north korea messages about the corruption of the regime interspersed with a cute -- k pop songs, cute girls and so forth. my understanding when i talked to a north korean defector once is this had a real impact in north korea and it is one way that we can do something that is not at all legal, but -- lethal, but could make the other side listen, physically and metaphorically. laura: they could hardly not listen, could they? what do you think of that idea? is that something the south korean government is actually entertaining? uk: actually, the idea that --

let the north korean people know the real situation, is really important. i don't think the broadcasts in the dmc is enough. -- in the dmz is enough. as we see, internet service can affect all countries. if we provide free internet or a free device they can connect to, maybe that would bring down this dictatorship. laura: what is the state of life for people inside north korea? kim jong-un declared success over covid two months ago. how much do we know about the economic and social situation for people there now? alastair: not as much as we

would like to know. i myself was last there in 2018. the british embassy, like many other european embassies, closed in 2020 with plans to reopen again. the sort of information that was coming out from north korea through the observations of diplomats in the country and through the observations of u.n. and other aid workers in the country has largely dried up, though some embassies remain there. it seems very likely that the situation is poor, and there are unknown numbers of deaths from covid-19. of course, and suffering deaths from covid-19, north korea is

probably low. and probably the level of food sufficiency is very low at the moment, and economic activity is low at the moment. but whether this is the level of severity seen in the second half of the 1990's, which, of course, the regime managed to survive, it is not clear. i hope it isn't, and i think it probably isn't, but the situation is not good. in terms of information access, there is less access to information now than there was a few years ago because of the closed borders between the dprk and china and the rest of the world. laura: how much are these tests a message to the domestic audience, or a distraction for the domestic audience from their living situations? alastair: i think we had different views on that.

i think that the program of ballistic missile launches, ballistic missile development, and nuclear weapons development is essentially a military program. clearly, at times, there are announcements of individual tests which are used for internal propaganda purposes. i think the existence of the image of the next enemy is important for the regime and its management of the people -- in its management of the people, but i don't think the latest tests in the last two weeks are primarily aimed at distracting the people of the dprk, if that were the intention of the leadership by think that would have done -- i think they would have done more to put more information about them in their own media and propaganda sources.

they have been remarkably silent about them. laura: last time we saw this many tests was in 2017 and we had a nuclear test towards the end of that year. and a lot of talk about another, seventh, nuclear test. what is your theory on that? there are a global dates coming up. we've got china's communist party congress, the u.s. midterm elections. do you have any theories as to when, or if, this might happen? mark: i don't have any theories that are better than the theories being discussed in south korea, where there is a view that a test during the upcoming workers party congress is the most likely timeframe. i think that is in the middle of october or in the weeks thereafter. i have been expecting another nuclear test for some time, and the indications are the site has been prepared for it.

i think when it is imminent, we will get more information. we have very good satellite coverage of that site and some very good analysts that can look at it and tell us what is happening. i have not seen it yet, but i expect we will. i think we are going to get a nuclear test every year, probably an icbm test, and things are going to get more and more tense. laura: is there a plan south korean response to this? uk: our security council is trying every inch to figure out the best nuclear path. they have diplomacy to deal with the situation after north korea has done this task.

the government's position is that we will do every possible measure after north korea does nuclear tests, and we will stand firm in working with the u.s. and japan. laura: what would that look like, alastair? what would the response be? alastair: i am not sure what the particular measures would be. i think you can look at measures they could be taken in response to the ballistic missile program, increased emphasis on cooperation, looking again at the detection and deterrence

tools. i am sure the united states, france, the united kingdom, and other members of the security council, russia and china, will work hard to get a new resolution in the security council if there is a nuclear test. i would hope that they would succeed, but it is hard to be optimistic at the moment. clearly, member states can take autonomous measures in relation to sanctions. if the u.n. at the security council level is paralyzed, then they may well do so, and the scope, of course, of sanction s if that is called for. laura: in the last 30 seconds

that we have, what does north korea want from all this? mark: they want protection against what they view as a potential attack on their country. they are wrong about that. they are wrong about who started the korean war, but they want to defend themselves. they also want to see themselves as equal to the united states. they loved it when president trump spoke with their president, and it was a field opportunity that that leadership summit did not result in any deals. we could have had something and both sides asked for too much. laura: ok, fantastic, thank you for joining us, uk yang, alastair morgan, and mark fitzpatrick. thank you for watching. you can see the program at any time for visiting our website, aljazeera.com. you can visit our facebook page and also join the conversation on twitter, @ajinsidestory.

for me, laura kyle, and the whole team here, it is bye for now.

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