♪ at least four people have been killed and 16 injured. the early morning attacks sent people running for cover week after russia unleashed its most widespread strikes against the country in months. the u.s. says it will hold rush holt -- russia accountable for air crimes. air forces are taking part in the alliances annual nuclear exercise. there will be conducting training flights over belgium as

well as the north sea and the u.k.. britain's prime minister has been accused of running scared after failing to address parliament days after replacing her finance minister. new chancellor announced a -- on last month's [inaudible] >> it will remain at 20% and will do so indefinitely until economic circumstances allow for it to be cut. taken together with the decision not to cut corporation tax and restoring the top rate of income tax the measures i've announced today will raise around 32 billion pounds every year. >> u.s. midterm elections are less than a month away and the candidates vying for one of ohio's senates seats have taken part in a televised debate. ohio is said to be a tight contest. republican and democrat are now can in the polls. authorities in nigeria are struggling to get relief

supplies to hundreds of thousands of people the place -- displaced by severe threat -- severe floods. thousands of people have been protesting in haitian capital as the united nation discussed measures to address the direst security crisis. the u.s. is proposing to send international troops after the haiti government asked for assistance last week. at least three people have died in venezuela after a river lost its banks sending muddy water through a town sweeping away cars. last week 56 people in the same region were killed in floods and a landslide. those are the headlines. more news for you here on al jazeera after inside story. stay with us. ♪

>> liberated but ignored, raqqa has been freed from isil for five years now but the city is still reeling from poverty and devastation. so who is responsible, and how much of a threat is the resurgence of the group in its former capital? this is inside story. ♪ >> hello, and welcome to the program. i am emily angwin. it has been five years since the and group isil was defeated in raqqa in northern syria. the city served as its base yet many of the conditions that made raqqa vulnerable to an isil takeover in 2017 exist today.

governance is weakening and attacks are common across the city. people are living in ruins with limited electricity, water, and access to education and medical services. >> fighters celebrate their capture of raqqa and 2014. -- in 2014. they are no longer here but the destruction left after the battle to force them out still remains. u.s.-backed kurdish fighters fought street battles to dislodge the militants and the u.s. carried out hundreds of airstrikes on the city, the democratic forces now control raqqa. >> for five years we lived in a desperate situation with lack of good water or bread. my family has nine people. no services are provided. they give 13 pieces of bread to six people and they make you suffer to get enough bread for your family. last time they told me if i did

not like it, go make a complaint. we cannot help you. >> many here are concerned about the state of the roads. with winter fast approaching, they are worried they may be cut off in an emergency. >> because of the bad roads if you are sick, the taxi will drop you away from your house and they do not enter these data. -- bad streets. and our street is considered one of the better ones. one of our hopes is that these streets be fixed in case an ambulance wants to enter. >> electricity supplies are limited here and those who can afford them, use generators. >> we depend on the generators, the normal electricity comes through a few hours a day. the generators cost the civilians too much. there is no follow-up from the municipality for the destroyed embalmed buildings to remove the rubble permanently. the battle to defeat isis was the start of a struggle for people here. and for those who remain, the lack of reconstruction, health, and education, mean it has not ended.

>> let's take a closer look at the legacy of isil and syria. the group no longer has a stronghold in the northeast and is officially considered defeated. despite this, it's fighters remain there. 20% of people surveyed see isil as the main threat to their security. some rights groups warned there could be a resurgence of the group as former fighters and their families are released from the camp in northeast syria. ♪ >> let's bring in our guests now. in oklahoma is joshua landis, the director at the center for middle east studies at the university of oklahoma. murat yesiltas, director of foreign policy research at seta, a think tank covering security and foreign policy issues. and in bali, is aymenn jawad al-tamimi, editor of castlereagh

associates and a specialist on islamic state. a warm welcome to all of you. joshua, i would like to start with you. the goal was to free civilians in raqqa from the grips of isil but have they been overlooked since being liberated? >> yes it has. and in it -- in this blame game, everybody is guilty but the united states as an american i would like to speak on the part of the united states. the united states put up with a rise of jihadist state in northeastern syria right from the early days. we have this from the documents that have been given out through wikileaks. the dia, defense intelligence agency for example already in 2012 said that it was the purpose, it was the intention of the west, turkey and the gulf

states to allow an islamic state of some kind to rise up and northeast in order to pressure, to use it as leverage against assad. and we see this time and time again in the american documents. already in 2013 for example, the number two and the cia gave us one single interview on tv and he said that the way they were going to get rid of assad by building up the opposition and they said already the opposition is dominated by al qaeda and related militias. so what they wanted to do was build them up to a weaken the syrian army but they were terrified of destroying the syrian army because we would need the syrian military and the institutions of the syrian security forces are required to defeat al qaeda when this is done. so they wanted to weaken the syrian army, force the syrian army to come to america to

negotiate, and then they thought they could get rid of assad that way. the army would turn on assad like the egyptian army had, they would get rid of him, then they would build up the army to kill the jihadists in the northeast. but in fact, there plan blew up in their hands. and they built -- they did not build it but it emerged with the weapons that were pouring in and then they had to go and destroy it. so this terrible plan which did not stand a chance of working, was partly the reason for why raqqa was so destroyed and why it has not grown back again because sanctions and other things are -- and the terrible assad government has been left in place, are all responsible for the devastation that has been brought on syria. >> let's look at that devastation. let's look at the problem before we discuss the solution.

aymenn if i can go to you now, what is the current humanitarian situation like in northern syria as it stands? >> commenting specifically on the raqqa situation because i have actually been there in 2018, i do remember when i went there there was very heavy destruction, buildings flattened or unusable. on the other hand, it was not completely a ghost town and i think there has been just some limited progress and restoration, attempts to restore services like electricity and water access. on the other hand, this process itself is likely dependent on aid provided by the united states and also by other western countries that were part of the coalition against islamic state.

the amount of aid they are willing to provide is not commensurate with the amount of destruction that took place in raqqa in particular during the campaign to recapture it. i think really to be sure that in the case of raqqa there was always -- it was to be expected there would be a substantial amount of destruction just because the islamic state i think was going to fight out until the very end, and pushing back against democratic forces and also just because of the way the approach of western countries is involved towards these kinds of conflicts, which is that you rely on local manpower on the ground to do fighting street to street and then it is very heavy dependence on airstrikes which does lead to substantial destruction. it is still very bad, there has been some progress over the years but it is really not

enough to in keeping the amount of destruction that has occurred, and there also is just these long-term challenges which no one really seems to be willing to step up to find a solution like decrease in water -- increasing water scarcity, the lower level of the euphrates along with that actually reduced access to hydroelectricity and this issue of dependence on generators we are seeing. >> exactly. so it is not just necessarily the the destruction but also the humanitarian situation on the ground with the likes of water and food and also unemployment. murat, if i can direct this question to you, is that poverty and unemployment driving young men into the arms of isil? our they -- are they using money to lure people? will we see a resurgent of isil? >> i think indeed, yes, but the problem is not limited with isis.

i think there are four different dynamics to understand the current situation in raqqa. the first is of course the potential of isis resurgence in the regions. isis is very active, yes, it is true, that is the territorial order of isis, but it's territorial activity is still undermining the stability of the region. when i am talking about the region, of course raqqa is not limited. there are also other regions. for example when we take into consideration the situation, i think we have to be very careful in terms of understanding the real push and pull factors on the ground because of the pkk's and ypg's. week security mechanism and the week -- the increasing

corrections of ypg over the management of [inaudible]. so therefore, isis activities is still continuing, which will eventually may provide freedom of [inaudible] to become an active organization on the ground. the second dynamic is about the pkk on the ground. i think as we know that sdf is one of the important organizations, political and military organizations, on the ground to govern the city and the regions but unfortunately, the dominant position of ypg over the local population is problematic. when we look at the data activities of ypg and pkk there are many problems about human rights violations. when we look at the different reports, which are released by international organizations, we can easily say that there is an intensive human rights violations on the ground, especially against local populations. and local populations i think are not happy about the

dominant position of ypg. we look at the natural resource, i think the natural resource of the region is not used to benefit of the local populations. there is a strong link between pkk and ypg and ypg and pyd i think are using these natural resources for the benefit of pkk's activities in syria iraq and turkey. so this is a real problem. i think pkk and ypg is also trying to change the demography in the region which will eventually undermine the demographic balance in the region. so there is all these dynamics i think provide some kind of grievances for the resurgence of isis. so there is also other dynamics in terms of the as you mentioned, limited water and electricity, accessing difficulties for especially the

children to access to education, and the disease within the context of the limited water and the local demonstrations against ypg dominated governance model. these are all i think the main dynamics for the push and pull factors and grievances for the isis. the final point is about the lack of comprehensive solution mechanism for the future of syria and there is no certainty about the u.s. strategic position in the region. there are many conflicts between the regional actors including turkey, iran, syria and other external actors. therefore, there are many possibilities for isis to become an active terrorist organization in the region. >> sure, and just to break it down, because there are lots of letters being thrown around, so that sdf is the syrian democratic forces, the ypg is an armed kurdish militia, that has

been designated by turkey as a terrorist organization. joshua, i will just throw it over to you. obviously turkey and the u.s. are major players in all of this. what does -- let me rephrase that. talk us through the relationship between turkey and the u.s. and all of this and how do the people in raqqa become victims of politics between the two countries? >> they certainly are the victims of politics. turkey is a nato country, an ally of the united states. it has its own ambitions. the united states in order to destroy isis and the islamic state that has grown up in northeast syria had to dump the arab opposition in syria and signed with the kurdish opposition. and the kurdish forces.

because they were the only ones willing to kill the arabs that made up isis. so america jumped, switched horses in the middle of the stream in 2014, 2015 and began to arm the kurds and the largest and most able kurdish organization was the ypg, which turkey considers part of the pkk of this terrorist organization. so turkey got furious at u.s. strategy which was to kill, which was to arm these people and train them because it worried them about the blowback inside turkey itself. so this set these partners against each other. today, there is steep competition because america is helping the kurds and turkey wants them not to. so turkey is increasingly closing ranks with the assad regime in order to try to collectively get rid of the united states and bring the kurdish region back under some kind of control whether it is turkish control or assad who are

competing powers, but they have a common goal, which is to get america out and to undo this autonomous quasi- independent region that america has built. and i think america will leave, not under this administration because it has promised not to, maybe not even under the next one. but it will eventually leave and it will be like afghanistan where the kurdish leaders who have hung their hats on america and become very dependent will have to flee the country and the second rank of kurdish leaders will make a deal with assad who needs them to rule in northeast himself, just like the americans do. so i think that is the likely future in the region. until that happens, there is going to be chaos, raqqa is not going to be rebuilt. and america is not really interested in the northeast because it does not want an independent state. it really will try to get out in the next administration or the one after. >> aymenn, would you like to respond to that?

what do you see as the resolution between turkey and the u.s. in this part of the world? >> i don't really see a resolution. i don't see a possible resolution that really preserves this structure that has emerged with the backing of the u.s. led coalition against islamic state. i mean, as has been pointed out, the ypg which is linked to the [inaudible]. that is a dominant component of the syrian democratic forces. when it was set up in 2015 it was really an attempt at a rebranding. i think they tried to downplay the ypg dominance of it and although the sdf, ypg incorporated many local arabs into their ranks, it still

dominated by veteran kurdish caterers and people linked to the pkk and that does trigger some local resentment on the ground but also in relation to this particular question, it infuriates turkey which sees essentially the u.s. as bolstering the pkk. so there is not really a resolution i think that actually would -- there would not be a resolution between turkey and the united states on this issue that would effectively preserve the democratic forces in the long run. essentially, the choice would be between an increase or expansion of syrian central government control, or controlled by syrian rebel groups that have been backed by turkey and expanded further south from the little pocket example they created along the border with turkey in raqqa province.

so there is not i think a resolution that would favor the democratic forces in any way. >> murat, i saw you nodding there. do you have a response? >> i think there are alternatives for of course and also scenarios about the future. the first one is maintaining the status quo which is not possible for the short term because of the many dynamics on the ground and the dynamics in the regional politics, especially after the russian invasion of ukraine. this is not the most likely scenario. the second one is the transformation of the sdf or ypg, whatever you call it. i think there are some attempts to transform ypg and pyd within the context of united states strategy in syria but it is not an easy task for the united states because of the very strong relationship between ypg and pkk.

if the united states is going to be successful in terms of transforming ypg and push back the pkk from the ypg, then the transformation will be the likely scenario in the mid term. on the other hand there is also the third scenario, about defeating ypg and pkk in the region. i think syrian government or assad regime is not capable to do so and turkey has the capacity to defeat the ypg on the ground but when we look at the turkey priority, i don't think the sdf dominated situation will be targeted by turkey in the coming future. another sub scenario, is the potential insurgencies against ypg and pyd, different cities, different regions in the northern part of syria because of the many, many important

dynamics, potential conflicts between local arab communities and the kurdish communities or ypg dominated sdf in terms of ypg's governance models. therefore, i think in the coming future because of the uncertainties and ambiguities i don't see any kind of solutions in the near future. >> with the focus being on these armed kurdish groups, could be -- we then see a resurgence of isil in the background? joshua? >> yes, it is not going to become monstrous but it will carry on the way it is doing now. people in the region are desperate and as long as the region of northern syria is broken up into these three major enemy territories, that is a turkish run northwest, an american run northeast, and a russian supported assad state. isis and other radicals are

going to be able to run through the feat of these three major forces which are enemies all of each other and see isis as the secondary problem. until there is a unified sovereign government that is able to stand on its feet with the police force and army in syria, isis is not going to be wiped out and nor are radicals going to be wiped out. as long as the goal of the international community is to keep syria weak and divided, there will be a place for recruitment of radical islamists. >> not only that, we are talking about foreign policy and politics but we are also talking about people. what are the obligations of turkey, of the u.s., of these major players to the people of syria? i will direct that question to

you, aymenn. >> well, i think it depends on which actor you are talking about. in terms of the united states, certainly in the areas where it has conducted its military campaign against islamic state's, and particular in raqqa, i personally do think there should be more of an obligation on the united states to deal with the reconstruction of the city and restoration of services, improvement of the infrastructure, as opposed to this more hands-on approach. i see it as a matter of obligation given that the airstrikes caused so much damage to the city. but i cannot really speak about obligations towards syria as a whole on a larger scale. there seems to be so many diverging interests and competing goals that it is very difficult to bring about this

comprehensive solution that is talked about as an ideal at least in the near to medium term. >> and also in a half an hour program, we have to leave it there, gentlemen. thank you very much for your time. thanks to all our guests. joshua landis, murat yesiltas, and aymenn jawad al-tamimi. and thank you also for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera.com. for further discussion go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, emily angwin, and the whole team, bye for now. ♪ óróxór[r