host: a look at the headlines on al jazeera, russian president vladimir putin says the world is facing its most dangerous decade since world war ii. speaking in moscow he accused the west of inciting the war and had no regrets about it. putin denied moscow is not planning to use nuclear weapons despite raising the prospect. >> the purpose of today's talks is to say that the prospect of using nuclear weapons are

primitive. their attempt to put pressure on international communication create a new threat, and they are looking for additional arguments in order to convince our friends that we all need to stand together against russia. host: russia has suffered setbacks of the battlefield, fighting is intensifying in ukraine's eastern regions with russian forces shelling the donetsk region. in the south ukrainian forces are pressing toward kherson, which is under pressure's control. russia has renewed its assault on ukraine's energy of the structure. ukraine is a 30% shortfall in energy activity. the world is facing its first truly global energy crisis according to a new report by the international energy agency. prices of fuel, gas, and electricity are going up driven partly by the war in ukraine and restrictions on oil exports by

the world's top producers. the outlook says the crisis may mark a historic turning point to green energy. israel and lebanon have signed a u.s. broker-dealer that lays out their maritime border. the agreement enables both countries to conduct offshore exploration for oil and gas. uganda one child has died from the ebola virus and five other children have tested positive in the capital. uganda as recorded 109 cases, and 30 people have died. the african union's public health body says the outbreak is under control despite a spike in cases in the capital. those of the headlines. the news continues on al jazeera after inside story. ♪

host: the first talks aimed at ending the war in if you will northern tigray region are underway, but fighting has intensified. what are the chances of bringing the conflict to an end, and what does each side hope to gain? this is inside story. ♪ hello and welcome to the program. ethiopia's government and the tigray region are holding highest level talks yet aimed at ending the war, but fighting has intensified on the battlefield as both sides seek to strengthen their negotiating position. a cease-fire collapsed in

august, thousands have been killed the conflict and many more have been divorced from their homes. the african union is leading the talks in south africa with a former president and a kenyan official acting as brokers. international calls for an end to the war have been mounting into recent weeks. the african union commission chair welcomed the start of the talks, saying he was encouraged by the early demonstration of commitment to peace. he plays the african union's continued support for a process to silence the guns what a united, stable, and resilient ethiopia. how did ethiopia get here? the people's liberation front dominated its politics for nearly 30 years until the prime minister came to power in 2018. in november 2020 he ordered a military operation against rebels in tigray and accused of the group of attacking military bases.

later that month he declared the operation finished. in june the tigray's people's liberation front recaptured the capital. by july it advanced into other regions. on october 11, ethiopian forces launch a ground offensive and airstrikes. the following month the government declared a state of emergency after tplf we took roads leading to the capital. the northern region has been under a blockade with no banking, telephone, or internet services and no media access. human rights campaigners have warned of potential abuses by both sides of the conflict. >> we went from a credible, independent investigation, we want humanitarian aid as immediately as possible. and we want international and

regional communities to support the situation in a manner deserving of the gravity of the situation. ♪ host: let's bring in our guest now or today's inside story. from these of about -- associate editor at a website documenting possible war crimes and a senior ethiopian analyst at the international crisis corp. let me start with you, looking at the big picture. how hopeful are you today that an end might be inside for the war in tigray? >> thank you for having me. i think the peace talks are

encouraging, and it is encouraging the people of both sides are hoping from these peace talks, because it will bring an end to the suffering of the people not only in the tigray region but in neighboring regions and the whole country in general. people are hoping this will be an end to the suffering of people. going through very severe challenges. host: what are the parties discussing precisely in south africa? >> in my opinion, the first issue would be about a cease-fire and a demand from the government side would mean they want tplf to put arms down and

talk. on the other side the main demand may be arrest from the terrace lists. these are the priorities before they go into the detail of what will happen. what will be the fate of tbl f - - tplf and how the administration should go into a normal transition? host: a number of issues on the table. in sweden, if i could turn to go. he says he is optimistic because the 2 sides are talking. with the chances of bringing this conflict to an immediate stop. do you think we might see some genuine progress? >> thank you. i am afraid i do not share in andualem's optimism.

the behavior of the government is my reason. let me start by reminding you, the government said the talks were an opportunity to consolidate, and that is their word, military support, military gain they had made over the previous days. commanders basically committing if you will begin forces have made concessions partially because forces have retreated from urban areas to avoid urban warfare. it will come when they controlled the capital city of tigray, that was the assumption when they set up to get talks -- set up the talks. by the time the talks began they would have control and that would give them the deposition

to command that the tigrayans totally surrender. they found themselves at a very awkward situation now. there have been rumors that the people representing the government could not actually commit to anything, because they did not think they would find themselves in the situation. i do not expect anything is going to come. the ethiopian government has been clear that the thing it wants to get from negotiations is to lessen the pressure and for them to release funds they have been withholding, because they have been demanding that in the ethiopian government should stop or before april claim benefits. i am very pessimistic about any outcome from the talks. host: william davison, your

thoughts, is there enough trust between the 2 parties that could lead to progress on substantive issues? >> perhaps what we are looking for realistically from these talks is cessation of hostility, renewing the agreement in place from the federal and tigray governments. what we should recognize is these are important negotiations, because they represent the beginning of a formal african union internationally supported process, and therefore they probably in the long run will be the way that this conflict is resolved and the way it should be resolved, but i think we have a rather long way to go. as your other guests have made clear, if the issue is under what terms could we have a cessation of hostilities? currently we have active

military confrontations in tigray with one army attempting to establish control over all federal festivities. while the tigray delegation says they want the cessation of hostilities, they say they went eritrea's military to withdraw and it is not clear that the government will agree to cessation of hostilities if the federal army keeps pushing forward with its eritrean allies. host: who would you say isn't the stronger position right now? >> the strongest position militarily? host: both militarily and at the negotiations. >> the fighting has been coming on since the 24th of august. over the last 2 weeks the tigray forces have retreated from urban areas, eritrean and ethiopian

forces have pushed further into tigray. we heard about considerable resistance from the tigray forces particularly around a crossroads town, so it is a mixed situation. undoubtedly there was momentum on the ethiopian and eritrean side in the last couple of weeks. host: let me come back to you, andualem. what is happening in and around tigray? it has been difficult to get information from the region. the federal government prior to the talks have said it would restore communication services across tigray. did they take that action? is more age going into the region to alleviate the humanitarian situation there? >> yes, we also follow support from the government side, and we have seen some pictures,

restoring electricity and telephone and video on social media in the areas where the national defense force has taken control. we have seen those deliveries being done by the government. when we see underground what is happening, the war is advancing into the different regions of tigray, and we heard it is surrounding a city and the assumption by the government is it will fall under the international defense force probably before sunday, before the first round of talks, so this is what is being observed on the ground. host: what do you think is happening on the ground, because the tigray end -- tigrayan

position has been they would not be willing to negotiate with the government unless essential services to the regional restored? as that happened? >> that has not happened, starvation remains an official policy of ethiopia and they are not ashamed to say that on local media. they say starvation remains policy, and the way to achieve changes by making the people suffered so they submit to the federal order. he is completely wrong when he says services have resumed in some parts. it is some sort of propaganda to say services have been restored. that is simply a lie. the government has actually banned humanitarian organizations from flying to tigray to deliver basic medicine

, never mind luxury items like food. nothing has happened in the way of resumption of services. the reason that tigrayan government as sent delegates to south africa is to literally beg the committee to urge the government to relent on its torture blockade so that at the very least food good start to trickle in. i want to emphasize he is completely wrong. host: andualem, your response to that? >> our friend is very far. he seems to sympathize with the tplf, and i just want to talk as an independent and any debuting, which can feel the suffering of most anyone. in the end, if there is no reason why the federal government will not deliver is

there -- if there is available aid as long as they have freed those areas. because the area was controlled by tplf, they have challenges to deliver that aid. the aid is available, why did they not deliver? it does not make sense. host: before i bring back william into the conversation. >> my mother and my partner live in an area supposedly freed by the ethiopian government, and i have not been able to speak to them for 2 years. what he is saying is a complete lie. host: william, i will bring you back into the conversation to help expand this and try to understand how the warring parties in ethiopia today can reach a settlement. we are not just talking about tplf and the ethiopian government.

there are other actors, eritrea has an forces into help fight alongside ethiopian government forces. the liberation forces in another region as well putting pressure on the addis government. is there a settlement that can satisfy all of the parties involved in this conflict, whether it is the federal government, tigray government, nationalist, eritrea government? >> there are no settlements, and the problem in ethiopia and eritrea is that some of these differences seem irreconcilable. it is right to highlight the role of eritrea in the conflict. we have a situation where elements of neighboring tigray, dave forcibly seized western tigray and still control it, so that will be a difficult issue to resolve as to great its

return, including a return of the people. this is a difficult situation. if progress is going to be made, it will be incremental. mediators will be focused on first getting a cessation of hostilities between the federal and tigray government, and moving on their to address the issue of eritrea. host: speaking of eritrea, do you think the president of eritrea will accept any deal that will see tigrayan leadership remain in place? >> the general understanding of the eritrean position is they are involved in this conflict heavily, and to see the complete eradication of the tplf as a political force. that means removing the leadership and ensuring they can no longer old power in tigray and tigray can no longer be a threat to eritrea. there is no sign the eritrean

leadership is interested in a negotiated settlement. host: the relationship between the 2 has been a complicated one. who is leading to there? >> that is an important question. undoubtedly they have a common purpose, a common enemy in tplf. also at times there have been signs of strain in the relationship. it is assumed the president was not happy with the prime minister's efforts to start these processes and strike a cease-fire. there is the potential for rivalry in terms of regional leadership. whilst they have been allied during this war, there is tension developing between them and their leaders. host: let me come back to you now. what do you see as the biggest challenge to these peace talks? can ahmed and the tplf litter

should be brought back together? >> it depends upon the intent of the meeting. [indiscernible] are they forces to produce stocks or forced to resolve the suffering of these people? that is the major question they should answer. if they think they are forced to sit for these talks while it is advancing to capture the capital , it may not make sense for them to make a deal quickly for the cease-fire. likewise, if tplf thinks they have come to this table because they are losing cities and towns, this does not make a

solution for this. we do not get solutions for these talks at the end of the day. it depends upon the intent. is it because of the influence of u.s. or because the suffering of the people? that is the major question in my opinion. host: your thoughts, what is the solution? can they reconcile? >> there is only one thing that has never been tried in terms of solution. everything as failed, threatening with sanctions. that is to actually sanction ethiopia, to impose an arms embargo, sanction eritrea as well and support tplf with ammunition so they can defend tigray. ethiopia is under the throes of eritrea.

any serious observer of ethiopia and the war on tigray as been very clear, and that is to support tigrayan defense forces. in terms of the talks, if you would give me one minute. it is the eritrean commanders using ethiopian troops as cannon fodder. the idea that they are advancing is a myth. it is not happening. it was a myth used by the ethiopian government to support it and make the international community believe it was months ago. it is just a lie they are trying to perpetuate. host: i would like you to respond in your thoughts about what he said about the international community sanctioning the ethiopian

government. what you make of that? >> i think that your guest as a biased solution. you cannot serve the solution by arming -- the u.s. saved ukraine from russia by supplying weapons. you were telling the same thing to happen in the region. when you are supplying arms, you increase suffering. you are serving only the purpose of those who supply the weapons to have their own political agenda and geopolitical interests in the region enter using tplf as a trojan horse. you have no clue what you are talking. >> ukraine has been able to -- [indiscernible]

quickly, in terms of ukraine. >> it is not a solution. >> ukraine as been able to defend itself partly because it is received western support, and that is what should happen in tigray, and there should be more support to tigray because the suffering in tigray is much worse than the suffering in ukraine, and i do not understand why the international community cannot think of solutions similar to the ones being applied in ukraine. host: let's ask william in nairobi. what can foreign diplomats involved in these talks do? what important element can be that the international community can bring to the table right now? >> they are doing the right thing in terms of a more concerted, more focused high-level international response. this absolutely devastating war, we have seen tens of thousands of combatants die in the past few months in addition to the hundreds of thousands that have been killed partly as a result of the government's blockade

that was enacted on tigray during this war. the focus on negotiations is correct, and there should be more forceful action taken. if any of the belligerence continued to use starvation as a weapon, a continue to target civilians and continue to prolong this conflict. ultimately what is needed is for all eritrean actors to understand there is no military solution here. we are only going to see further suffering, and no matter how difficult and how entrenched the differences are, the way out of this is to begin to try to negotiate around the negotiating table rather than on the battlefield. host: thank you very much for a very lively and interesting discussion. thank you very much for being with us. i do thank you for watching. watch this program again any time by visiting our website al

jazeera.com. for further discussion go to our facebook page. join the conversation on twitter, our handle is at ajinsidestory. thanks for watching. goodbye for now. ♪

/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ñ/ññn ■xúçúç

♪