hoping to implement for the country. ♪ >> these are our top stories. russia says it is unacceptable for ships carrying grain to pass through the black sea corridor and it will not guarantee the safety of the vessels. moscow has a suspended a deal brokered by turk -- brokered by the u.n. russia's president putin has warned he can do more after a series of missile and drone attacks in ukraine. the airstrikes hit critical infrastructure intensities, leaving many -- in 10 cities,

leaving many without power a running water. president biden has told oil prices -- oil companies to lower prices for americans. he says many oil companies are profiteering from the war in ukraine. >> give me a break. enough is enough. look, i am a capitalist, i have no problem with corporations turning a fair profit or getting return on their investment in innovation. but this is not remotely what is happening. oil companies, record profits today are not because they are doing something new or innovative. their profits are a windfall of war. the windfall from the brutal conflict ravaging ukraine and hurting tens of millions of people around the globe. you know, at a time of war, any company receiving historic windfall profits like this is the responsibility to act beyond their narrow self interests. >> search-and-rescue teams in the philippines are still looking for bodies after

tropical storm. at least 101 people have died and dozens are still missing. nearly 800,000 are displaced. supporters of brazilian president bolsonaro have blocked roads across the country after he lost sunday's election. lula da silva. bolsonaro has still not publicly conceded. those are your headlines. i will be back with more news after "inside story." ♪ host: russia is accused of blackmail by withdrawing from a grain export deal with ukraine. they are trying to salvage it, but how will this a globe --

address the global food c risis? this is "inside story." ♪ welcome to the program. this was hailed as a rare diplomatic breakthrough from russia's war in ukraine. moscow and kyiv at sign a u.n. brokered deal to export grain safely through the black sea. the two nations were major suppliers of wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil to lower and middle on come countries before the war -- middle income countries before the war. the kremlin blamed drone attacks in crimea for its decision and retaliated with more missile strikes on kyiv. the u.n., turkey, and ukraine have now agreed to allow some

vessels to leave through turkish waters. they say they are determined to keep the agreement alive. ukraine's president accuses russia of blackmailing the world with hunger. >> russia is the only one to blame for the fact that food now become more expensive, from west africa, to east asia. russia is the only reason why people in particular in ethiopia, yemen, and somalia, are left with catastrophic food shortages. host: the landmark deal was signed in july to export grain and fertilizer from ukrainian ports, which had been under russian blockade. it was meant to ease the global food crisis caused by the conflict. the u.n. says more than 450 ships have left ukrainian ports since early august, and about 9.3 million tons of food has been exported to regions around the world.

let's bring in our guests. in moscow, andrey baklanov, a former russian ambassador to saudi arabia. in new york, steve mathews, senior vp of financial services at gro intelligence analysis firm on agriculture, climate and the economy. and in ukraine, masha belikova, grain news and peice -- price reporter. thank you all very much for joining us. masha, the statement from moscow that they are going to suspend their involvement in these grain shipments. how concerning is that news as ukrainians hear it? masha: hello. yeah, the news is really concerning. i can say that people were not expecting that something bad could happen, because for the last three weeks, we already have seen huge delays for the inspections for the vessels that are coming and going to ukraine

and istanbul. there was also some rumor that was not confirmed from early november that the entrances could be closed because they have to free the queue. also russian statements during the last few weeks were not really supporting the greendale. so it -- the grain deal. so it was not a big surprise, but still a surprise. now we see vessels are leaving ukraine, the vessels that have been already loaded and waiting for inspection. host: we will get more into this, into the nuances of the language. andrey baklanov in moscow, can i bring you in here. good to have you joining us from russia. as masha says, was it to be expected? did you expect this scenario to

unfold the way it did? have the attacks -- had the attacks not happen over the weekend, with the grain shipments have continued? andrey: the negative results -- we tried really to make a deal with the grain. and to make this deal separate from the situation in the black sea. but to be fair, because the agreement was only accomplished 50%. our grain was -- from the very first day of this

transaction, only 50% was more or less a success. host: let's bring in steve mathews here in new york. we do not want to make this too much of a political situatio -- conversation. it really is about how we get grain around the world considering what is going on in ukraine. when these sorts of things happen, not only do speculators panic, the markets panic, financial markets panic, politicians start to panic. where do we start to look at how nervous the markets are, or the industry itself when it comes to dealing in the financial commodity that is grain, wheat, and cornflower oil? steve: absolutely. i think that is exactly where to look, the price levels of these global commodities. let's keep in mind, these are global commodities. the wheat market worldwide, for

export anyway, is well over 100 million tons, 160 tons or so. so the cutback is very important at the margin, but it's not that big of a hit to the total export trade. the problem is prices go up, and therefore when this happens, the people least able to pay have the biggest problems as a result. host: of course masha, if i can come back to you, obviously ships there were targeted. however, by whom has yet to be verified independently. moscow has a point that it is concerned, and it is angry about what has happened. inevitably, it's worried about the ships it says were damaged. those are supposed to be the very ships that protect the grain convoys, hence, their suspension from the deal.

now, politics aside, if they are ships that are supposed to be defending and looking after the green cargo out of the black sea, moscow has a point. masha: um, no. you can easily see that from the map, if you see where is crimea and where is the port and the grain corridor, right now you can go on some apps that show the vessels' track. you can see it is far away from there. this is one point. another point is inside the agreement, there was nothing said about russian vessels to be defending the grain deal. nothing about that. it said only that the russian side wants to be among the inspection, and they want to be the guys who will be checking the vessels coming and going through istanbul.

because they were saying that ukraine is moving bombs in and out with these vessels, which is not true. host: let's move away from the politics. ambassador, let me come back to you. obviously since the war began, and this special military operation, as russia likes to call it, began in ukraine, russia has been on a charm offensive in those countries, in africa for example, who depend a great deal on grain and food security. if you take the grain away or restrict the grain access, are you, or is russia lyrically and diplomatically -- politically and diplomatically in danger of harming those relations? saudi arabia is a rich country, but it also depends on grain from russia and from ukraine. andrey: actually, as far as the

political side of this story, we were given access to the grain transfers to our grain. still dealing with ukrainian grain, it was going more or less ok. but there was a very strange phenomena, which is deceiving us. there was a lot of noise and, well, accusations dealing with a problem in developing countries. but from 390 ships that went from the black sea, only 3% -- 3% -- went to such countries as somalia, if you'll be a, african

-- ethiopia, afghanistan. [indiscernible] it's kind of deceiving. we're feeling frustrated over the a compliment of this deal. host: let me bring in steve mathews, because that is an issue that has been raised a few times from the moscow side. when grain is exported, there are obviously brokers, ports that have to be subdivided off i presume, to be headed off into other countries. this accusation from moscow, how does grain move and get to countries like somalia, afghanistan, yemen, where it is needed most? is it transported onto other ships? steve: well, yes. again, it's a global market. the fact that grain maybe went somewhere other than where it was immediately needed does not necessarily imply any sort of

negative outcome. namely that if it were sent places that were less efficient, the price would be affected less by that movement, if you know what i mean. price is up currently 6.4% for wheat globally. that is a very significant move. that is not a normal, daily move on the price of wheat. and that is bad news for people who are depending on wheat supplies to get through the winter, or to get through the next year or so. the global backdrop is tight. we have the tightest stocks to use ratio, which is the way people track how much you have versus how much you use. the tightest ratio since 2008. so, things like this do not help, let's put it that way. australia was too wet, india had a heat wave, the u.s. is too dry foir planting. we have a number of problems in the wheat market and the last thing we need is less wheat coming out of the black sea.

host: i want to take a pause and give both our guests and our viewers at home an idea of the context of all of this. because in july, i spoke to the u.n. secretary general when he signed that deal. antonio guterres believed russia and ukraine would honor their commitments. >> of course it is a matter of trust. things need to go well for them to be able to continue. but we will do everything, everything in our capacity to make sure that things go well. and we will be there all the time in the inspections, in the coordination center, together with turkey, with the objective to guarantee that the parties will abide by what was signed today. host: antonio guterres there in july. steve, reputation and deals, as we have seen, can affect financial markets. one misspoken word and millions can be lost or gained, prices

can soar. in your opinion, speaking to your colleagues in this area of the financial markets, how closely are they listening to what kyiv, moscow, and especially with the u.n. secretary-general is saying? steve: i would say very closely, because this was a material agreement that caused large amount of grain to move successfully through the black sea, where it had not been moving before since march or february. so, as people are trying to decide what to pay for wheat, they take these statements and action on the water very much into account. host: let me just bring in andrey baklanov. let me change slight methodology here. 9 million tons, as was mentioned in various news reports, has been moved so far in the agreement, which has to be renewed on november 19. could this actually be a point

of bargaining for moscow as we lead up to november 19? as you say, there are issues with the agreement that moscow is not happy with. what needs to change, do you think, for that agreement to be renewed on november 19? andrey: well, actually, i think one point is missing in the overall scheme. this is the point dealing with the monitoring mechanism. the mechanism is developing at very strange dimensions. and we cannot control it. the results are very far from what was envisioned. so i think if you have the opportunity to repair this mechanism, we must start from the problem of establishing

monitoring just to make sure th at each day, everything is developing in due manner as we agreed upon. otherwise, the agreement will not be fulfilled. host: masha belikova, let's just talk about renewal of the agreement. we have had nearly four months of grain movements out of ukraine unhindered. over 9 million tons has moved. a small amount compared to what is still in storage. give us an idea of how much grain still needs to be moved from ukraine at the moment. what sort of problems are the ukrainian authorities having trying to get that grain over to the port for its movement? masha: well, it's pretty hard to manage how much. just a lot. because for now, we were just

moving stocks, -- stalks, mostly. from 9 million tons of grains and oil. but we have a new crop. and only for wheat we have 19 million tons of wheat, new crop. and from that number, around 11 million, 12 million tons that can be exported. for corn, we have an estimation of 26 million tons for now, and 20 million tons of that is what can be exported. we also have around two million tons for barley, and we have a lot of sun seeds. i do not really have a number right now in my head, but is also if you million tons -- it is also a few million tons. host: the stakes are high for ukraine. masha: yes, the stakes are high

for ukraine, that is right. and if the deal will not be continued, of course we still have some ways how we can move that grain out of ukraine. but the capacity is just like, you know, much lower. we can make something like 2.5 million tons per month. host: the stakes are high also politically. let's bring in more of what antonio guterres said to me about the grain deal back in july. >> it's obvious that there is nervousness, there is lack of trust. but this is not the first experience we have had with ukrainians and russians. as you remember, and it was also agreed in the same context, that my visits to president putin and president zelenskyy, the evacuation of civilians. for months people said it was impossible. for months all kinds of attempt failed. but when there was an operation

with a clear coordination with you when, the -- with the u.n., it haven't edit happened successfully -- it happened and it happened successfully. and with the same attitude today become due this. this of course it an -- i have no doubt to you this was the most important thing i have contributed as secretary-general. host: yes, unprecedented times and a reputation on the line for the u.n. secretary general, antonio guterres. mr. baklanov, the u.n. secretary-general has delayed his trip for a very important arab league meeting in algiers to oversee discussions of what is described by his spokesmen as

at the highest levels. is he speaking to president putin or foreign minister lavrov? what is your impression as to who he is talking to? andrey: a few days ago, we discussed these problems in anticipation of the president and minister of foreign affairs. and we came to the conclusion that -- [indiscernible] in the days to come, this can be

amended. and the u.n. should help. host: let's bring in steve mathews in new york. november 19 is an important date. in terms of the markets and analysts, what are you looking to hear? we talked about this but the u.n. secretary general has a very small window of opportunity to make things move again to keep both sides happy. steve: i do not entirely agree with the idea that there is a small window. at any time the sides can allow -- agreed to allow the grain to move again. it is important for global grain markets for that to happen. as i said before, the global grain market is in a very tight situation. the post-soviet growth in the

agricultural industry in the post-soviet territories has been nothing short of a miracle since 1990, 1991, 1992. and the growing populations of north africa and the middle east have come to depend on that flow of grain through the black sea and across the mediterranean. and any interruption to that is basically reversing 30 years of development. so, it's something to keep in mind when we look at the idea that this is something that can be blocked and unblocked almost at will when the parties decide to agree or not agree. so, traders will be watching very closely to see what happens on november 19, that is for sure. but simply because something does or does not happen november 19 does not mean something cannot happen later. host: you have a very good relationship with saudi arabia. i want to bring in a report that was published in february of this year, where the saudi arabian state grain buyer said

it agreed to import 355,000 tons of grain from its saudi-owned farms in ukraine. obviously, countries indirectly are affected by what is going on in ukraine, and you have very close relationships as a country. while you are not a diplomat right now sir, does that put a strain henri at and -- strain on relationships as the war continues to unfold in ukraine? andrey: actually, we discussed in details on all these problems with our saudi friends. ukrainian problem. it's our understanding, the whole problem -- [indiscernible]

it's less than 1% of the overall export of grain in the world. we are ready now to give free of charge additionally to the c ompanies half a million tons free of charge. also free of charge, fertilizers. it's easy to understand. it's necessary to unblock and annihilate the limitations on our exports due to the sanctions. this is number one prolbl -- problem.,

[indiscernible] host: we will see what happens. unfortunately we have run out of time. it is a conversation we will have to have again on the days ahead. i would like to thank all of my guests, andrey baklanov, steve mathews, and masha belikova, for joining us. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website at aljazeera.com. for further discussion, go to our facebook page, facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter. from me and the team here in doha, thank you so much for your time and your company. ♪pppxxxx■]■t■]■o■x■xço