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>> ethiopia's government and rebel forces in northern tigray have agreed to end hostilities but this isn't the first ceasefire in the two-year conflict. so what are the terms of the deal, and will it last? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. after 10 days of peace talks in south africa a surprise deal has been reached to stop ethiopia civil war. up to half a million people have died from violence and starvation during the conflict. hundreds of thousands have been forced from their homes. and nine million urgently need food. well now the ethiopian government and the tigrayan people's liberation front, or tplf, have agreed to what they

call a permanent cessation of hostilities. the african union mediated the talks, led by former nigerian president olusen obasanjo and former kenyan president uhuru kenyatta. >> today is the beginning of a new town for ethiopia, the horn of africa, and indeed for africa as a whole. we have seen in practice and actualization what we have tried to achieve for ourselves over the years. african solution for african problems. >> a of how the war started. ethnic tigraines dominated ethiopian politics for nearly 30 years until prime minister abi ahmed came to power in 2018. two years later he ordered a military operation against the

tplf, he accused the group of attacking military bases and holding an unauthorized regional election. northern tigray has been under blockade for 17 months with aid restricted and internet and phone services blocked, both sides have been accused of violating human rights. now the last ceasefire signed in august broke down and ethiopian government forces were closing in on tigris regional capital , mike kelly. before the latest round of talks. after this ceasefire was announced, ethiopia's prime minister in a statement said the agreement signed today in south africa is monumental in moving ethiopia forward, our commitment to peace remains steadfast. now the tplf says the ceasefire is not only a relief to the people of tigray but to all of ethiopia. >> we have made painful concessions because addressing the pains of our people is far

more important than the kinds of concessions we have made. we have to build trust and we have to make sure that every one of us builds on the trust. >> let's bring in our guests. in addis ababa hi redeem tazira, a member of the ethiopian parliament and assistant professor of social anthropology at arizona university. in amsterdam, gabriel christos, gabriel selassie founder and chief editor of tagat.com that's a website documenting the war in tigray, and in london, martin plout, a senior research fellow at the institute of commonwealth studies. a warm welcome. thank you for joining us. before we get into the details of this agreement signed by the ethiopian government and the tplf, i want to get your initial reaction first to the ceasefire . let's start in addis ababa.

how do you view this agreement, will the cease-fire last? >> the moment i heard about the agreement i was happy and as on any part of ethiopia and any citizen of ethiopia i wish ethiopia to be very peaceful and prosperous. the bloody conflict in the north was dragging us behind. a conflict between brothers. it was emotional and i am happy and the agreement does not indicate one party is winning, it means one family out of the argument. >> how committed to the agreement is the ethiopian government? >> from what i understand,

immediately after the prime minister said the government is very committed. they have said time and again they wanted to end the conflict. [indiscernible] the factors were addressed in the argument. no need to wait. [indiscernible] >> this deal has come as a surprise to many. there was not a lot of optimism going into the talks. do you think this cease-fire will last? >> i think it's positive that at

least there is a publicly stated commitment for peace. whether it will last remains to be seen. i say that because the european regime thrives on deception. and the african union does not have a strong mechanism to oversee the forces. i think the community feels --

the grand community feels that the agreement was unfair and a lot of concessions were demanded. >> at the start of the negotiations 10 days ago the conflict was intensifying in the ethiopian government and its eritrean allies were closing in on the regional capital. >> forces were deep in their territory. but they were close to mccallie. they were actually blocked quite a distance and being ambushed on the highway to hell. so it's not that they were in an impossible position but it was extremely difficult. >> how do you explain the

concessions they made? >> the ethiopians were losing a lot of men but also under intense financial pressure because the international monetary fund made it clear they would not extend loans to ethiopia, which is down to about a month's worth of foreign exchange. they've spent hugely on weapons for this war and so they were under intense pressure and well . and it's because both sides were under pressure that the it was possible to get some kind of agreement. >> it was said a moment ago that the ethiopian regime has a track record that's not really good, that they they're deceptive in his words. do you think there is enough trust today between the two sides that could make the cease-fire last? >> there is little trust. you need confidence building measures. ask yourself one question.

have the borders been opened? have the world food program's trucks begun moving today? there's no reason why they have to wait any further, the agreement's been initialed, they should be moving today. second question will the , ethiopian and the eritrean governments allow reporters from al jazeera and other organizations go to the front and report on what is going on now? that would be hugely important in allowing people to say this is what is happening with confident. >> let's look the significant parts. the tplf under this deal must enter a permanent ceasefire with government forces and disarm . tigre will be restored as a region under ethiopia's federal system. elections held integra in 2020 that weren't recognized by ethiopia's government will be considered void. a new government for the region will be established.

martin raises an important question, whether borders of tigre will be open, when will aid return and when will the obstacles to transport food and medicine be lifted? >> according to my understanding there was war in that area for two years but after the control of some areas by ethiopian national defense force i can understand that and based on my information and assessment the development [indiscernible] the movement of humanitarian food and services. telecommunication has been restored by the government. the issue is whether the

government has absolute power and that area. [indiscernible] it would be very difficult for the central government to deliver services into these areas and they would be blocked by the federal government [indiscernible] >> it is said the government is falsely accused of blockading the tigre region. what is happening now in the region? is aid coming in and services restored? >> no, it is a lie.

lie and deception have been part of the government and the speak goal -- and the people that speak for the government in the area. we hear that the areas are liberated. it's not liberation. people did not ask for that. there is no electricity or internet. but they are telling us people are eating food. they are not eating. so let what martin said, we haven't seen anything since the agreement was signed that points toward something positive coming. one of the injustices at the moment is things that are normally not negotiable like

restoration of services, those things should not be allowed but they have been able to use them to coerce the grants to concede. that's why he doesn't feel right from the get-go. -- that is white it doesn't feel right from the get-go. there is a disappointment and resentment. they feel like the grants who have been subjected to genocide are not getting justice and reparation because of the arrangement. >> martin, a huge disappointment . it does not sound like the agreement will last long. >> i hope it does.

it has been a long time in the baking and there has been huge international pressure. the americans have played a huge role try to get this through the african union and there's no reason why it shouldn't work. you need some measures of goodwill which show that there's genuine goodwill on both sides. let a united nations flight take off tomorrow with the camera crew on it and broadcast the situation from michele tomorrow. it's not difficult. it could be done by prime minister abe. all they have to say is it could go and the flight would take off. >> will the prime minister or

the ethiopian government make a goodwill gesture? >> [indiscernible] we have to appreciate the overall framework agreed by the parties. >> everyone agrees on the framework and welcomes the deal. the question now is whether what was agreed will be implemented. >> what kind of implementation is mentioned? that will be seen soon. [indiscernible] my brother from amsterdam said grants are showing resentment.

they want their families to be peaceful. [indiscernible] let's show commitment to implementation. it cannot be checked by one journalist. we will see. let's give it time to prove it right or wrong. stephen: -- >> this is a good gesture, allowing journalists and aid to flow in immediately. but what he is saying is simply,

it should be good. no. there should be justice. crimes of this magnitude cannot go free. >> the crimes according to the united nations were committed by both sides. >> it's not the same. it's a different type of crime. in conflict, there will be crimes. and they should be held accountable. but there should be transparent trust towards the mechanism and the magnitude of the crimes committed. the investigation puts the

magnitude of the crimes on ethiopia. >> we talked about goodwill gestures. what about the disarmament of the tplf, that's part of the agreement. when would that happen? >> it's extremely difficult for to grants. they are fighting for their people and institution of government. that's the problem. the parallel army has committed genocide upon us. it is not already me.

-- it is not our army. [crosstalk] >> finish your thought really quickly. >> this is what i mean. the forces of tigre are the only ones who protect the society. this is a very serious issue. we feel like it isn't right. >> as you can hear there is still a lot of animosity from

the two sides, just judging by this conversation. what happens next as far as the agreement is concerned? we talked about to cry and that ethiopian forces. but we haven't talked about eritrea's role in this eritrean forces were of course fighting alongside the ethiopian government forces will the eritreans and president isaiah accept this deal and abide by it ? >> that's the critical question. a year ago prime minister abi of ethiopia said that he had asked the era trains to leave but they never left. all it says is that it prevents the use of proxies to destabilize the other party or collusion with any external force hostile to either party . that's a sort of complicated way

of saying the eritreans, but how are they going to ensure that they leave is very difficult because don't forget that a lot . of ethiopian troops were sent up north to eritrea to attack the to grants from the north. what will happen to them? what about somali forces? when are they allowed to go home? there are a lot of questions. it's a fragile system. >> and what about western tigre region that was captured by forces at the beginning of the conflict? >> there was a two-page agreement signed that said they uphold the constitution of the federal democratic republic of ethiopia. now that constitution recognizes that western tigre as part of

tigre, now if they're going to abide by the letter of this then that should be returned to tigre . i'd be interested to hear what the colleague in addis abba has to say about that. >> ok. and when will eritrean forces leave ethiopia? >> i'm an academic and i want the data to narrate. [indiscernible] some international committee always empower. [indiscernible] regarding as electricity especially, the argument

stipulates [indiscernible] >> ok. >> [indiscernible] >> i'm going to let another guest respond on the point there is no proof eritrean forces are in northern tigre and ask you about the next step, divisions, and the cease-fire not solving them. what should happen next? >> i don't know what to say to your other guest. this is what we mean. already we see the demand. even his government has admitted

forces are there. it is public knowledge. he says he doesn't know about it. why would we believe any more of what he says? i think this was a face-saving kind of argument. i think the real issues have not been addressed. the questions were political and [crosstalk] >> gentlemen, please.

please. clearly there are still so many issues to address and so many questions that hopefully we will get to discuss further. we have run out of time for today's show. thank you so much for joining us. and thank you too for watching. you can always watch this program again anytime by visiting our website at aljazeera.com. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can of course also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me and whole team in doha, thanks for watching. bye for now. ♪

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