are the top stories this hour. the vote could upend joe biden's presidency with poll suggesting a republican comeback. the u.n. secretary general has warned the world is losing the fight against climate change. addressing a summit, antonio guterres disk bribed --

described climate change is the defining issue of our age. or than 25 countries have agreed to hold each other accountable with a pledge to end deforestation by 2030, and announcing billions of dollars to finance their efforts. the group includes japan, pakistan, and the u.k. but does not include brazil of the democratic republic of the congo. there is the standoff between italian officials in sicily and a ship carrying hundreds of migrants and refugees. people on the visa operated by doctors without borders are waiting for permission to disembark. ethiopia's government established a telephone hotline. the move was announced by african union mediators as a second round of talks get underway in kenya. those are the headlines. the news continues on al jazeera after inside story.

♪ >> the battle for the u.s. congress from democracy to the economy, to abortion. the stakes are extremely high, but in a divided country, what really shapes voter choices and what will it mean for the presidency? this is inside story. hello, and welcome to the special story by washington,

d.c. on tuesday, american voters will decide who will represent them in congress. democrats hold a very slim majority in the house and the senate. that could change after these midterm elections. the u.s. is greatly divided on issues from immigration to abortion, the economy and democracy itself. there are 435 seats up for grabs in the house of representatives while 35 of the 100 seats in the u.s. senate are up for reelection. this will shape how the final two years of joe biden's first term will turn out. >> the big guns are out in the final days before the midterm elections. >> it's not a referendum. it's a choice between two vastly different visions for america.

>> democrats are expecting to get hammered. joe biden's approval rating does not help. >> voters use elections as a referendum on the party in power and so most of the time, the president's party loses during the midterm elections. >> it could spell problems for joe biden's election and legacy. inflation has spiked, prices for food and gas have risen. addressing climate change, rebuilding infrastructure is not energizing voters. republicans want to end the january 6 hearings and investigate biden for as yet unspecified reasons. some are pushing for a restrictive national abortion law. biden can veto some of that, but not all. an energized republican party could shrink his presidency. >> as with any president that exists in a divided government,

it will be difficult for him to get anything done. in an era of polarization, that we have experienced the last 30 years is that presidents in divided government have a difficult time passing their agenda. >> that leaves experts worried that it could undermine the whole election process. >> if there is any sort of massive error, there are audits. to concede, the results as long as all of those processes have been gone through. >> this is the voters top concern. it could leave biden not just unable to push his agenda.

al jazeera, washington. >> let's bring in our guest. she is from the university of maryland. brett is a former director of global engagement. the international development. welcome to the program. i was excited when you said you were going to be part of this conversation. i have been covering american politics since the early 90's in iowa. i have no clue how this election will go and i have never said that in all of my years covering elections. the president's party almost always loses seats.

since the civil war, the president's party lost the house 37 out of 39 times. 92%. the house of representatives. what will happen? >> republicans are going to take back the house. that's without question at this point. the margin of victory has adjusted a little bit. i think it went from a 96% certainty to 94% certainty that it is pretty clear. >> the question is how much are they going to win by? and if they do exceed expectations, yes, everybody believes that they will win. but if we are talking double digits in terms of seats, that is going to give them something of a mandate and they will use that mandate to try as you mentioned mounting investigations, mounting at

every turn, roadblocks for biden in his last two years. >> we are close enough now to the election that we can make a solid prediction that the house will go for the republican party. they just need five seats to take the majority. but the question is the size of the majority. it only because of mandate. but a working majority for the incoming speaker who will likely be kevin mccarthy. there are factions in the republican party there are in the democratic party like a kasi a cortez. you have to have a working majority of at least 20 to 30 seats. for kevin mccarthy to control that caucus. meaning a new republican majority. i think the key that night is that if it is under 20, it will still be a republican-controlled congress but it will be difficult to pass legislation

among even republicans. if it is closer to 40, then he can lose 10 or 15 members consistently and still be able to pass legislation. >> let's move on to the senate. these races are insanely tight. every poll is within the margin of error. we can get into polling if it even works anymore. >> it is a question about polling and i think that will be the most interesting thing the next day, if the polls are accurate because there's a lot of controversy if people answer polls, if they are telling pollsters what they really believe. but to answer your question, i think polling will be on the ballot in many ways. i think it all points to republican holds. pennsylvania, georgia, nevada,

and arizona. republicans need to win two of those to have a majority. statistically, it will probably be possible to do that. particularly nevada and georgia are looking promising for republicans. >> we will get to georgia in a minute. but what do you think? are you more hopeful? >> i am not. i think republicans are likely to take the senate. 52 seats and i think it will give mitch mcconnell more room. one thing that he did not mention which i think will be important to take account of is that if kevin mccarthy and mitch mcconnell have a little bit of wiggle room, that can be beneficial for our politics because it means that they can ignore the freedom caucus in the house which sits on the outer extremity of even republican

politics. and that could leave some room for compromise. it is important in some ways if the republicans get a wider majority. they don't have two q to that extreme edge of the party quite as option. >> a democrat that thinks it's better if the republicans win big? >> it is a peculiar position. but at the same time, it's true because just like in our party, the progressive caucus can push. in the next two years, if we have a party that is driven by the marjorie taylor greene, the jim jordan and others who are really trying to pick fights and trying to push the republicans even further out into the outer rings of the universe of

political philosophy is dangerous. in some ways, in a strange logic and calculation, as a democrat who is looking at the polls right now and saying what is the silver lining, that is the silver lining. >> i can't disagree with my colleagues. i think the republicans have the wind at their backs right now and i don't know that there's enough of a compelling case. pushing people to show up and we know that inflation, we know that is pushing people. and they are deeply unhappy and people feel uncertain and people feel insecure. that usually plays well for republican politics. >> the bigger question is what president biden has been saying, primetime speech, the fate of democracy on the line in this election. is it? >> we are a young democracy and

people think of us as beginning when our country began but it didn't really begin until 1965. >> explain 1965. >> the voting rights act insured for the first time that most racial and ethnic minorities could participate in the electoral process. you can view it as kicking out the old authoritarians in the south who were really blocking black access to the ballot and access for indigenous people, latino people, asian people. you don't really get full democracy in the united states until 1965 and after. so we are a young democracy. and when we look at some of the races, we are also talking about places that have been more restrictive and starting to pull the electorate.

we have candidates, parties picking their voters and that is happening on both democratic and republican sides. it's not a one-sided thing. the problem when we talk about this electoral process, we are talking about it from this perspective of this election means that if people don't accept the outcome, will we see more january 6 like hey veer? -- behavior. will it be more violence like january 6? maybe not. that subtle calling into account for institutions saying that these congressional investigations aren't really working. secretaries of state are also on the ballots and some of these same places. saying we won't confirm. that's a really insidious kind of chipping away at democracy.

it is an experiment. it is a verb. if we don't elect it -- if we don't protect it, then i think we are in trouble. >> gerrymandering, i think it was a guy named jerry who drew a district. they use the census data so a lot of these congressional districts are drawn, and both parties do this. they figure where their voters are in the district doesn't look like a circle. you can find any number of bizarre shapes. are you worried? >> what i am worried most for is november of 2024 because you likely are going to have republican control of congress which was not the case in 2020. now you have trump returning to a presidential election with republicans firmly in control in congress as well as a number of

key states? that is a dangerous moment. that is a moment which stands out to me as one where democracy truly will be hanging in the balance. the democrats have an opportunity in this election to show what democratic behavior looks like. except the results and don't call in to question some of the institutions or some of the practices and start focusing now on our message for 2024 because another opportunity for democrats lies in the fact that some of those candidates like herschel walker in georgia and like kari lake in arizona might end up defining republicans. and with the help of donald trump, they can. and the blockages that we are likely to see here in washington may lead to trouble for the republicans in 2024. that for me is the key moment but as folks overseas may not know, our presidential elections

start on wednesday. and that is going to be a long road to the white house and it is going to be a difficult campaign. >> i see you chomping at the bit over there. >> with all due respect, it's amazing how they fear the american people. the president has said i think in a very divisive and inflammatory way that democracy is on the ballot. the ballot is democracy. i think he has it wrong. so the will of the american people, their decision is not questioned. it's amazing that the questioning comes when they lose. i suppose stacey abrams who never accepted her defeat who says she is still the governor of georgia. >> that's two inside baseball. >> i don't think it's inside baseball.

>> she did not say the election was stolen. >> she said she won the election and she never conceded. those are her words. hillary clinton says the election was stolen from her. when it comes to the liberal press and the liberals on the left, it is just past the bread. but when the american people are choosing their elected representatives and what appears to be including in georgia a record turnout that we have seen in the level enthusiasm of both parties. if the outcome is not what they want, there is a threat to democracy. by the way, many of these trump candidates who will win were being financed by the democratic party. it is amazing that their threat for democracy is very short-lived. >> i saw that you said that what happened on january 6 was the mob, not an insurrection. the definition of insurrection is a violent uprising against an authority or government.

i was there that day. i was covering it. i was surrounded by an angry terrifying mob. and i have done some really scary stories in my life. never have i been that scared on an assignment in my life. how is it not an insurrection when their goal was to stop the election? >> a mob of people can do anything they want but insurrection suggests an organized effort. with all due respect, there is no evidence that has been the case at all. it was the justice department prior to this partisan committee in the congress that is looking into this matter. >> there are republicans on there. >> they were not appointed by the speaker and there are two republicans that are really functionally democrats. it's a joke and everybody knows it to be. was it a concerted 93 day attack

on the courthouse in portland oregon and insurrection? >> they were protesting police violence. they weren't trying to overturn an election. >> they were trying to undo the judicial branch of the united states, taking over parts of seattle, burning down things. the attorney general of massachusetts saying we have to burn down the system, that is not an assault on democracy. >> you know it didn't happen in portland? they didn't try to hang the vice president. >> i'm not justifying a mob in any sense of the word. >> we're moving on. i am concerned about where this country is right now when it comes to political violence. many viewers don't know this but in arizona because of the big lie, we have just had people show up with masks and guns and stakeout polling places.

let's think about paul pelosi. he is an 82-year-old man who was in the middle of the night, someone broke into his house, someone who believes the election was stolen, believes conspiracy theories. wanted to come after his wife. beat him in the head with a hammer. and some republicans are making light of this. listen to this. >> it is not impossible to protect our kids at school. they act like it is. nancy pelosi has protection, but apparently her house doesn't have a lot of protection. [laughter] >> i want to stop for a minute. speaker pelosi's husband they had a break-in. he was assaulted. there is no room for violence anywhere but we are going to send her back to be with him in california. >> that was the republican candidate for governor of arizona and the current governor of virginia youngkin.

there has also been some interesting tweets, ted cruz from texas re-tweeting someone questioning whether the attacker's motivation is. on social media he's an election denier and conspiracy theorist. instead of saying he was a liberal, they wrote that this guy was a liberal. it's impossible to think that he was for republicans and ted cruz retweeted that. congresswoman claudia tenney sent out a picture of a bunch of guys with hammers outside of a house and just wrote lol. donald trump, jr. tweeted out a pair of underwear that mr. poulos he was wearing because he was sleeping in his house at 2:00 in the morning and a hammer and wrote i have my paul pelosi halloween costume ready. the don jr. is beyond the pale. he's an 82-year-old man who is in the icu for six days and has a very long recovery. not a politician.

how did we get here? >> we have been sliding to this place for a very long time. the polarization is probably more than we have seen but we have been moving here since the reagan years. when we see a deterioration in political conversation, when we pick people not because they think they have the best way forward but because they can create a world of us versus them that makes us feel comforted and safe, that is how we get here. and what is really disturbing about this conversation whether we're talking election denial or whether it's a mob or insurrection, splitting those kinds of hairs and not being able to call a thing a thing without saying the other guy did it, too. that's not the point. saying that january 6 should have never happened doesn't indict one or the other. it's just calling it what it is. >> a protest is not the same thing as saying we're going to halt the counting and let's --

bring the mike pence. that is not the same thing. and this is the deterioration of discourse. it's not that we can't disagree or even say that our person was wrong, but if you're going to do it every time somebody says hey this is a bad idea this is terrible and you say but the other guy does this, that's not ok. >> washington post has looked at the 569 gop candidates and 51% deny the 2020 election. there is a supreme court case that's going to come up that might give state legislatures full control over how elections go. if election deniers are in charge of the elections -- i need you to be very brief. what happens if trump's candidates win? >> unfortunately, we are going to see further erosion both in terms of the voting process.

you will see the places where you can vote restricted. you will see more places go away. but also i think we are going to lose what remains of some semblance of fact-based policy. we are going to start making policy based on conspiracy theories. you're going to make policy based on the whims of a former president who is just trying to stay relevant. and i want to add one additional point. the democrats have to really go back and rework their message. if they couldn't find a winning message after january 6, after the efforts by the supreme court and republicans to so radically restrict control over one's body, if they can't find a winning message after a successful effort to defend ukraine from a russian invasion, i don't know what they need in order to win on.

>> if trump's candidates lose, does trumpism die? >> know and i don't think they will lose. the so-called trump candidates, the people who did not get the nomination were asking for president trump's endorsement. president trump just happened to pick one of them. 87% of republican support president trump. >> but republicans also like power. we have to do stop the discussion there. i have no idea what will happen on tuesday but it will be consequential. thanks to our guests, and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website . and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. for me and the whole team here

in the and indo hock, bye for now.

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