>> let's take a look at the headlines. the u.s. house of representatives is the is fourth day of voting per speaker. kevin mccarthy has failed for the 30 of time to win a majority. the house will be in recess until 3:00 p.m. >> around 12:00, there was a glimmer of hope from mccarthy in that some of the ultraconservatives switched and cast votes in his favor. there was a fracturing in the

faction that has been opposed to and being the speaker of the house, but in the next round he got one more. but there are still six who are continuing to hold out. while they do so it is simple, mccarthy cannot get the majority needed to become speaker of the house. yet, he remains confident that this is going to happen when the house convenes in a few hours. anchor: members of the u.s. house of representatives have gathered on the steps of that capitol building to remember the january 6 attack that happened two years ago, and feature but to the officers that kept them safe and remember the five who died. israel has announced sanctions against palestinian authorities, pushing the highest um body to give its opinion on the israeli occupation. a decision was taken at the for security meaning for the new

government.artillery fire has been heard in ukraine despite the start of a cease-fire called by the russian president. ukraine objected the offer and both sides are accusing each other of continuing shelling. the truth was supposed to coincide with christmas. rebels have handed back a military base and condo to government forces. this is to fulfill a pledge in recent months, but the rebels have been gaining ground of sarin. california is preparing for more severe weather. storms have been hitting the u.s. state this week, causing major flooding and cutting power to tens of thousands of homes. the news continues here on al jazeera after "inside story," so do stay with us.

♪ ♪ >> a record number of cubans left their homeland last year to get into the u.s. the president is bringing in laws to make it harder for most of them. so it is causing the mass exodus and can conditions change for the people of cuba? this is "inside story." ♪ >> hello and welcome to the program. cuba sought its largest departure of people last year since fidel castro's revolution in the 1950's.

most headed for the u.s., with many thousands from other countries. migration has become a political crisis for the white house, and president biden has announced new measures. new visas will be granted for some, but those who simply turn up at the border will be immediately turned away. here is our report from miami. reporter: a new year, new arrivals and a new planet by the president, aiming at slowing the rising tide of migrants trying to enter the u.s. illegally. >> my administration is taking steps towards enforcement for those who try to come. and to put in place a faster process to decide the claim of asylum. reporter: a legal, narrow pathway for the growing number of cubans, nicaraguans and haitians going north, up to 30000 and month, those with

sponsors and passing background checks could come into live and work for two years. but if they try to smuggle themselves in by land or sea and get caught, they will be barred. this week, the arrival of migrants in cuba because of the closure of a park in florida. then they were used -- moved to the u.s. mainland on thursday. and the u.s. has just resumed visa services in cuba, hoping more people will follow the legitimate route instead. >> if you're in a burning building, it does not seem right to say before you jump from the second floor please go to your computer, get online, schedule an interview, come back to the burning building, wait for a couple months and then you can jump. when somebody has to flee for their life, they have to flee. and eye system has to honor that context. reporter: the new policy has

florida, where the border is at the water -- how will it work here? >> the economic conditions in cuba are largely to blame for the population's master parch or, more than 220,000 cubans arrived at the border between the u.s. and mexico in the past year, nearly six times as many in the previous year. many have fled because of a shortage of food and medicine after the former president trump tightened sanctions on cuba in 2019. the trade embargo brought in by john f. kennedy has been in place for 60 years. the pandemic had a devastating impact on cuba's ministry, and vital source of revenue that came to a standstill. in july, the biggest protests since cuba's revolution in the 1950's broke out over the government's handling of the economic crisis and pandemic. the widespread crackdown that followed added to those wanting

to leave. ♪ >> let's bring in our guests. rosa maria, the founder of cuba decide, a movement change political systems in cuba towards a democracy. hele is an the university of glasgow. and from washington is andrew, the president of the migration policy institute. a very warm welcome to all of you. rosa maria, we outlined some of the reasons why people leave cuba. the so-called push factors. but why do we see such a rise of numbers over the past year? rosa maria: the situation on the island is extreme. it's not only a political crisis. the low system in the country -- the whole system in the country has been collapsing. and it is hard to find medicine

in the pharmacies. it's been hard to find proper medical attention. and people, many parts of the country, are starving. on top of this the political repression has increased and increased. there's more than 1000 political prisoners at this moment on the island, the largest number of political prisoners in the hemisphere. if you add up all the political prisoners in nicaragua and other countries, you will not get to that number in cuba. it's mainly young folks and the only crime they committed was to walk in the streets demanding freedom. by the way, not the end of the embargo, the end of the dictatorship. and that is why people are escaping.

the reason is a dictatorship that doesn't allow for the cubans to pursue their dreams in a safe way on the island. these are the elements that are important here. and the cuban people continue to demand that change. in the last year, at least 3000 public -- have been reduced. there four more in september last year than in july of 2021. even though that has not been narrated. so of the dictatorship needs an escape -- and they found it wh en the dictatorship called attention to another dictatorship, in nicaragua, and suddenly that dictator was removed. from that day until now, actually from november 3, 2021

until december last year, more than 267,000 cubans have crossed the southern border of the u.s., more than 2% of the cuban publishing escaping terror and terrorism. but also being weaponized by a dictatorship to obtain demands from the u.s. government. to put pressure over the u.s. government. this is not new. they have been doing that kind of thing for 60 years. >> andrew, before we address those many points rosa maria brought up, i want to make clear the nicaragua element, because it did seem to be a key factor in the migration push. the opening up of transit between cuba and nicaragua, the

fat cubans could go to nicaragua with -- fact that cubans could go to nicaragua without a visa and travel to the u.s. by land. this is a major route they were able to take. andrew: this has become the principal route. we have seen people on lifeboats from cuba, but the primary route has been people flying to nicaragua because they do not need a visa and charter companies have done multiple flights a d ay from -- day from havana to nicaragua, then people higher smugglers. or they sometimes go on their own for pieces of it, then head to the u.s. border. until yesterday, the u.s. was allowing almost all cubans in. there is also no deportation agreement with cuba right now as part of the many problems in the diplomatic relationship between the two countries.

so you have a situation where people are desperate, they have lost hope in the future of the country. the economic and political situation is bad. and you have the possibility of getting out. there's a route that has opened up. but it is a dangerous journey. there lots of danger. and if you make it to the u.s. border, until yesterday you were assured to get into the u.s. so that is a risk many were wanting to take. >> why do you think cuba and nicaragua chose to open up that route? andrew: it could be -- you can read it one of two ways. they are not exclusive. one that they needed cuban tourism, which is probably true. they were desperate for tourists. those are important for nicaragua. both governments are looking to leverage their relationship and migration with the u.s.

government, and they figure that the more this becomes a crisis, politically for joe biden, than they will probably be able to negotiate something. i think it is working out for cuba. there are talks going on. but they have not seemed to work out for nicaragua, which has not gotten anywhere. but i am sure whether it was the original intention or not, it did become part of it, knowing that this would cause political havoc in the u.s. and would bring the u.s. to the negotiating table. >> helen, do you see the major pushback as being people escaping terror, getting away from a dictatorship? or is it the economic factors, the dire conditions people are living in without hope of them improving in the near future? what is the major pushback? helen: there is no doubt that

most of these are economic migrants, as they are all over latin america. in britain, we have also experienced a massive increase in illegal immigration from people who are desperate to improve their lives. at the start, you had a quote from someone talking about a building on fire, but we should say who has set the cuban house on fire? it has been set on fire, as you said, not just through the most comprehensive and longest enduring set of sanctions, the sanctions regime against one single country, the u.s. against cuba, but since 2019 the trump administration pursued a maximum pressure strategy in order to make life unbearable for cubans. and i agree with rosa maria that there's a scarcity of

basics, like medicine. this is a country that has the capacity to produce almost 70% of the medicine it consumes domestically. so you have this dichotomy with cuba, a leading figure and biotech, the only country in latin america and the caribbean with the capacity to create its own covid-19 vaccine, but then unable to several -- to administer that vaccine for several months, which led to protests, because it could not access syringes. why? because syringe production is dominated by the u.s. now the extent of sanctions has become absolutely suffocating for cuba. let me give you a personal example. i'm a british citizen and if i send a one pound transaction to a european bank account using the word cuba, it is blocked.

the question is, with these shortages how can cuba get the necessities that the cuban people are accustomed to having, and need, when they cannot use the international financial system because of sanctions? it is a complicated problem, but we need to look at the cause. >> to what extent do you agree with that, the long-standing trade embargo from the u.s., all of this creating the cuba we have today and has created the situation that is pushing so many people to leave, rosa maria? rosa maria: there's an embargo on food and medicine from the u.s., that is a fact. and they do that. the united nations, the u.s., an d others have offered cuba back tsome international vaccines

during the hardest moments in the pandemic and to the cuban government refused help. the cuban people -- at least that is what they showed, the moment that they refused the vaccines. and they actually told them, cuba is one of the largest in the hemisphere, i recommend everybody to look for that article in the economy. that came, the numbers. the possible numbers of the people who suffered in cuba because of covid-19. but this is a very long excuse that -- t e embargo. my suggestion to everybody watching is to pay attention to what the cuban people, the citizens, have been demanding in

the streets. actually taking the hardest possible --, which is liberty, because many are now in jail. what are they demanding? they are demanding the end of the dictatorship. at the end of the day, we as cubans and as humans, we have the right to decide our future. to decide our economical, political system. that right has been kidnapped by a dictatorship for more than 60 years. >> i will jump in rosa maria and give helen a chance to comment. look at the protests from 2021, up to 700 people arrested. it's infringement on human rights. helen: i was actually in cuba in july, on the 11th of july, and i

do not believe rosa maria was. and i have written about my experience. and about the economic manipulation that had happened. and there were slogans on placards from rosa maria's organizations that were prepared for those demonstrations. there is a lot of evidence about the -- we have two recognize the u.s. congress -- to recognize the u.s. congress, and this is covert, that $20 million every year is for promoting regimes. the cubans, of course, call it a regime change, so we have to recognize this is a lot of money. and it has been channeled to people who are proponents for a transition to democracy. sorry, a transition to capitalism. rosa maria: [crosstalk] >> ok, we cannot hear you when

you are talking over each other. and i do not want us to descend into a slightly different debate than the one we started from. we are not debating regime change this time. let's move on. helen, one moment, because i want to try to get the conversation back. we still need to look at the u.s. changing policy towards a people who want to go to the u.s. andrew, let's ask a basic question here. should mass migration be brought to an end, or should it be encouraged? what is the right answer? if people want to leave cuba, should they be allowed to or should they be stopped? andrew: that depends on who you ask. i think that a lot of cubans would like to leave. on the other hand, the u.s. political system, you know, at

some point reaches a breaking point when there is a perception that there's no order at the border. so there are conflicting ideas on this. i think there are people who believe that people should be able to go where they wish, but in the end countries are sovereign. and the other thing that changed, if we can go back to the migration part, what changed is the u.s. closed its consulate a few years ago, actually before the 2019 sanctions. this was part of the hardening of the policy, but also the result of a specific incident where u.s. embassy employees were getting headaches and mysterious illness, and know when knew -- no one knew what caused it. so for years there were illegal pathways for cubans to get to the u.s., about 20,000 a year could go to the u.s., and another 4000 or so could go on a university visa. many were going through family

visas, people being requested by family members to get a green card and come to the united states. there were reasons for cubans to wait around to come to the u.s. what broke down where the legal pathways to get there. two days ago the u.s. restarted consular processing in havana. and it remains to be seen how effective it will be. i think you see the u.s. is began processing people, not under just of the program announced yesterday, but the lottery system, family reunification, sponsorships -- a system that allows people to wait for family to come to be u.s. earlier on different visas. many people might be willing to wait for their legal term because there are legal ways. but people lost the ability to come to the u.s. nicaragua opened the process to come without a visa. things are really bad, they are

thinking i have to go and i do not have another alternative. >> do you agree that the opening of the consulate, it's a step in the right direction if you are looking for true relations between cuba and the u.s.? helen: there are two things. there is a huge pull factor for cubans going to the u.s. they have the cuban adjustment act, which was updated it decade after it was passed, saying any cuban arriving legally or not, at a legal port or not, after one year can claim their residency in the u.s. they are the only citizens around the world that have that privilege. and it is a very big pull factor. it means that there are many cubans who are settling in the united states. so when times get hard, they have the capacity to leave.

many cubans had returned to cuba and started to invest in small businesses and so on during the restructuring in the obama era. and the other thing is they have these -- where the u.s. had agreed to supply 20,000 visas a year for cubans are traveling to the united states, and they never really met that target. but in the last five years, as the other speaker was saying, they closed down the consulate and have not been issuing visas. so there are some simple steps that could be taken by the u.s. administration. this is a small one but it has taken them a long time. president biden, many thought he would reverse the trump measures and go back to the obama policy. and he suggested that during his campaign. but he has not done that. he's said this is an important

first step, but there is a backlog of people who want to go see the relatives, or even scientists trying to enter science conferences, enter art and culture and so on. it has been frozen and it has created a backlog of frustrated people who may have important personal reasons or intellectual reasons to go to the united states, but have not been able to. that's why i talk about the house being settled by it because the sanctions have created economic hardship. if anyone is using cuban my greatest -- cubans migrants as a prawn, it would be the united states. >> rosa maria, do you welcome these changes, allowing 30,000 people a month, but expelling another 30,000 who do not have the correct paperwork?

do you welcome the opening of a consular office in havana? the improvement of ties, is that something that you want to see happen? rosa maria: for many years now, especially since this crisis began, we have been raising our voice to alert about the very dangerous situations that cubans and migrants in general who are escaping from dictatorships are experiencing. when you do it by foot or by the sea, which is equally dangerous. so in that regard, the opening up of a legal pathway to be able to immigrate, escape the dictatorship in a safeway, is something that we want. we can only hope, and we are demanding, that those people who get to the southern border are

treated in a humane way. we have to understand that in these cases people are escaping dictatorships, they are escaping in place where they cannot live or where their liberty is in danger. in that sense, yes, with the opening of a new legal pathways, the opening of the consulate in havana, is positive. now that is not to say that this is a solution to these problems. because the problem is caused in this country. because the real conflict is not between the cuban regime and the united states government. the conflict is between the cuban citizenry that wants to be free, that wants to choose their way of life and a dictatorship

that has been denying that for more than 60 years. so, the government can start by helping the demands for freedom by the cuban people. and then of course it will put pressure on the government -- >> we apologize, we have to leave it there. we might have to leave it on disagreement as to why people want to leave cuba, but perhaps an agreement that people must be allowed to do it in a humane fashion, should they want to. thank you very much to our guests for joining us today. thank you. and thank you for watching. you can see the program any time by visiting our website. and to join the discussion you can go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter, and for me and the whole team here,

it's by for now. -- bye for now. o;o;ó7ó7

♪♪♪ sally sara: a secret war, right on our doorstep. [chanting] sally: west papuan activists are fighting for independence from indonesia like never before. [guns firing] sally: jakarta is cracking down hard, cutting communications, and banning foreign media. sally: but we've managed to get inside where a long-running insurgency has reignited. [gun firing]