>> global food costs have hit a record high. what is driving that? some blame war in ukraine. soaring prices destabilizing many countries. what is the way out of the crisis? this is inside story. ♪ ♪ >> welcome to the program. new the end of last year, the number of people in the world reached 8 billion. according to the united nations

food program, the combination of geopolitics, climate events, and slow economic recovery after the pandemic are posing a risk to the global food security. all of us will face the consequences at the same degree. the u.n. says the war between russia and ukraine can force a fragile system of food supplies to fail. moscow and kyiv estimated to have accounted for 30% of wheat exports. the middle east, north africa, and horn of africa, the most from that conflict with shortages and price increases. across europe, simultaneous crises and food distribution, energy access, and fertilizer supplies shocked the global food system when the war began. the food and agriculture organization's places like the united kingdom can see empty shells well into 2023. in other places, backlogs stemming from pandemic lockdowns , a shortage of truck drivers

adding to the challenge of delivering food to everyone. apart from man-made factors, the climate poses us a -- severe challenge. recurrent floods that have destroyed crops and left the country with almost no dry land. those floods can be felt for decades to come. energy giant bp and shell announcing record profits driven by the war in europe. the announcements provoked calls for the u.k. government to levy windfall taxes on energy revenues. for more on this, i'm joined by our guest. in santa christina, italy, the economist for the food and agriculture organization. the assistant professor in supply chain management and social responsibility at the

school of economics. in ottawa -- professor of university research chair. welcome to all of my guests. can i begin with you? the food and agriculture tells us the food price index for the five staples dropped for the 10th consecutive month. a global community experiencing some of the highest food prices ever. what is going on? it is a very confusing picture that is being told. >> it is confusing, but it is not confusing once we analyze it. it will set commodities. and the prices to reach

commodities. between countries, private sector, etc. it also seems it is a composite index, has a lot of changes behind the index. so we saw that the vegetable prices, sugar prices decline, while the serial prices remain stable. so the composite index with the overall answer. the next point is the consumers are like commodities in bulk. they are buying flour, bread, other goods. when the share of the commodity is relatively small. but there is a cost of energy,

it goes to the cost of flour. the consumers are -- >> let me bring in sarah in helsinki. adding to what monica said, vegetable oil prices have declined by 2.9%. dairy prices 1.4. this is according to the fao. sugar costs increasing by 1.1%. how do these figures relate to the post-pandemic levels? can we use it as a starting point? >> a very different marketplace, not just the basic input, but we are talking food prices, the transport cost. it includes a lot of labor. shortages. we are seeing a lack of mobility.

so there is a lot of things that feed into what consumer prices are in the end. there's a disconnect between the commodity prices and what we are seeing in the supermarket. going out for pizza at night or something. we are looking at a whole complex of things. not just the flower going into that, but much more complexity. the labor market, consumers are consuming in different ways. we have seen online deliveries, food being online delivered. things are complex, there's a lot of other stuff going into that. >> we are going to pick all of this. it is quite complicated for any of our views. coming to you in ottawa. there was recently the world

economic forum in davos. food security was one of the top issues to be discussed at all levels. to that food security, social stability and climate change. and what is the impact of those sorts of conversations happening in davos when it comes to each sovereign country around the world. they are having those debates, as well. >> with all of the things happening, it is having a very big impact. through security, meaning -- to have sufficient assets. and if you look at it, it is not reality. and more and more people are in hunger.

war with russia and ukraine. seeing the coronation, the increase, the droughts in many locations. so now, there are -- putting it in the right context, input from governments, the input of the innovation. >> let's talk about those issues. it is sustainable production. the impact could well be pretty severe on climate change. the two things quite linked when it comes to trying to improve industry. such moves to improve sustainable production.

takes time, and cost money. a continual debate. what are the big sticking points? >> it is a huge debate in terms of costs, obviously. every country around the world was trying to save somewhere, and there is not enough money to go around. the national level, resolving this for a national level. we want to have food to go around. i live in finland, it is not like we will start growing oranges. we might want to localize our production. we are looking at the international picture, a complex picture of distributing the food we do have. we see the intervention of the u.n., and ukraine to get the great and get it to the critical areas. it is a global picture, also

quite a bit of nationalism in that regard. our country comes first, we need to put our citizens first. are we going more national? it is very political. we are talking about food supply chains. >> so glad you mentioned, that was my next question. monica in santa christina. the analysis would include national sovereignty of various countries. people within those countries and the national governments want to reassure them the food they produce on their own land is secure. the borders are safe, they are growing capacity, production capacity is safe. until you start exporting more you keep at home, countries have seen this where they have been abroad. this was quite evident during the pandemic. how do you assess the way

countries keep some of the produce for themselves without being accused of hoarding? >> countries do have that right, to protect their domestic markets. preventing it from doing that. however, the restrictions and seeing this happening last year after the war and ukraine started. in the markets are not ready for that. so we have seen in the country, it might not be enough supplies. to introduce very southern parts, the measures stopping the exports. in 2020 -- when something like this happens, prices immediately

start increasing, creating more problems for those countries. >> i think you were nodding in agreement. >> i agree. with respect to sovereignty, -- food production should be away that it will be enough for people in the region or in the country, but at the same time trying to contribute. and one of which cases, first of all what happened. in terms of bread production and -- that calls into question the overreliance on certain types of food. and the need for different countries to diversify the type of food that offer similar

composition for instance. a food system that with -- we have -- that if cultivated, if produced in larger quantities, it can help the local system. so when there is global destruction, we are going to have a lot of shape ups. we have some of the issues, some of the aspects that are yet to tap into fully. it definitely helps. >> at the end of the day, you need to grow. you talked about the ukraine grain shipments and agreement between russia.

last july in 2022. it is actually her agency saying the agreement is so shaky. the fact fertilizer did not get out in time, rain did not get out on time, it will affect food production in 2023. how bad will it get before it gets better? >> in agriculture, you have long lead times. not like you can decide to increase production for next week. the issue with fertilizer, actually having that right yield. that is a huge issue. it takes some time to actually grow the crops. and you need the fertilizer to be able to actually do it. this is a shadow that hangs over the food production. and we are going into the other issues with climate change. huge droughts that are affecting agricultural production.

floods elsewhere, so we are in a very complex picture that all feeds together. going to continue to follow us. so many parts to it. it is difficult to predict. there isn't one, there is no one thing that can fix the situation. food is a very emotional issue. so we will react very strongly to it. all of the panic buying of various comfort food items. we also see it in market changes. it is usually quite quick reaction. what we are going to do, what happens now, influencing the market. a very complex issue. >> can i come back to you? because of the russia and ukraine issue, it has been strong globally.

do we have a false impression ukraine and russia are the only countries who can produce the grain that the global market requires? there hasn't been so much of a shudder in the asia-pacific. >> if i may go back, the question about ukraine, and production increases, getting nervous because their production increases, it is good to increase in a sustainable matter. the same applies as it applies for open crops. the livelihood to farmers and others -- but the sustainability consideration, it is crucial. we have seen when it was produced many years ago. the production --

in terms of ukraine and russia, ukraine and russia are two very important, significant producers of cereals, particularly wheat, and vegetable oils. last year, we had not seen that much of him, there was a decline. the end of february, -- >> we know that part of the history. what i want to know is why we have this idea that we are relying on ukraine and on russia. countries such as indonesia -- there is this idea in the public persona that we are all going to

starve. that is not the case. people in asia-pacific are not panicking in the same way. i think we have to address those things. they deal with a different type of cereal. rice. >> they do make rice. but when that increases, -- so it is all very connected. in russia, it keeps exporting to the local markets. to the extent possible continuing to export. then keep exporting. but the markets, the production from ukraine is important. they have seen some decline in this production. but they are going to see a

bigger decline. they are lacking money to use the next crop to start the next crop. >> let me come to you in ottawa. are we looking at a more serious topic of conversation when it comes to food diversification? the global carbon footprint. scientists keep suggesting, governments keep promising. >> i agree. that is one of the most -- of mitigation. that part of the world would disrupt the entire food system. so to increase sustainability, it is important that we raise it for certification.

different cultures have different types of cereal. the international year of -- which is also a serial. it can grow in a drought. many order crops like that. if embraced as the next crop. i believe it was quite important. climate effects -- the other way around -- there are some of these other options. watching that change, they can have more options, and also more stability. >> can i bring you in here?

where does the public-private partnership actually develop? we seen the government wanting to invest in new technology. if that is in food production, you need experts to come in. funding is required. what is the balance when it comes to making sure there is the issue of a supply chain professionalism and at the same time, social responsibility. >> absolutely, a lot of interconnected issues. policy documents in place. shortening the food supply chains, our country and our region. it obviously needs a follow-through from industry, from producers, from manufacturers down the line. and also the consumer. we want it to switch to things easier to grow in drought conditions.

i the end, that needs to happen on the consumers played, as well. if people are unwilling to switch, the more it can continue growing at scale. it doesn't help whether we have policy buying into that, there is also the consumer buying of what we need to consume. that is kind of the seasonality, as well. the things we have become quite used to, that is very highly interconnected. we are used to having the global trade flows in our food systems and supply chains. that is being challenged at the moment. we see the nonfood items during the pandemic and transport issues, realizing how complex the supply chains are and how interconnected they really are. all we are substituting things

with even cereal, if it goes that way, you substitute it with something else. it is affecting the whole cereal market whether or not a particular area has a shortage of the environment. >> we are sort of getting close to the end of the program. often getting to the conferences every november. heading towards this coming november, the uae, food production, scarcity, and food security will be part of that conversation. how important are gatherings like this? do they solve the issue? >> it is more important, in fact, it will be a good medium for government intervention. there has to be that political will. original prices and information coming to the -- so governments are willing to invest in the system.

especially innovation and new technologies to support. and looking at the much newer aspects, to the -- i think it would be significant. the food systems summit in 2021. investing 1% of that -- that it could help. helping increase the emphasis and the risk. making a point about the cultural shift. the emphasis on them, and everybody recognizes the prices.

just a matter of industry, being encouraged or to adopt some of his alternatives. the diversity needed to sustain the system. >> obviously while you have these politicians jostling for position, and they will come november, however the using food availability and sustainability or security as a strategy for geopolitical power? >> any scar's good can be a power in the end. you see it as power at sometimes. ukraine utilizing grain to african countries to market the grain and relations to ukraine. it is definitely a political in the supply chains. it will be international collaboration.

and that will also be at the end. we see some countries trying to stop -- stockpile things, make sure that is where the food items were. we have countries trying to ban down the hatches. see the restrictions of various countries. it is very much a political element to support both the world and other countries. >> just briefly, inflation is a subject hitting the airwaves across the moment. lebanon, egypt, as well as many more across europe being affected. monitoring this when it comes to the data, month by month telling the world where the prices go up or down. >> it does not include the consideration of the pricing because it is about commodities

versus food. across mostly all of the countries. >> we should see what happened certainly in the coming few weeks. we will have to leave it there. interesting conversation. thank you to all of our guests. thank you to the guests and for you watching, as well. thank you for watching the program. go to al jazeera.com. and for further discussion, -- inside story. you can join the conversation on twitter. for the whole team here, thank you very much.

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