mohammed: it has been nearly a year since russia invaded ukraine. resident volodymyr zelenskyy is hoping to join the eu. but what can membership offer? this is "inside story." ♪ mohammed: hello and welcome to the program. i am mohammed jamjoom. the first time since russia invaded ukraine nearly a year ago, president blood where zelenskyy has been able to tour

europe. he has things leaders for his support but also double down on his request for more assistance. zelenskyy is also seeking an expedited process to join the eu. he says ukrainians are fighting on behalf of all europe. we will get to our guests to the moment. but first, this report from james bays in brussels. james: after trips to london and paris, president zelenskyy flew with the french president, emmanuel macron, to brussels. in the capital of the european union, he was again repeating the same message. thanks for all your help, but ukraine still needs more. >> slava ukrani. james: he told a packed session of the european parliament that ukraine's future is part of europe. >> we are moving closer to the european union. ukraine will be a member of the european union.

ukraine when it is winning will be a part of a european union that is winning. james: after standing ovations in the parliaments, a short drive away he was again treated with applause from the leaders of all the eu's 27 nations. when he sat down with them, he laid out specific requirements. >> we need artillery guns, ammunition, modern tanks, long-range missiles, modern aircraft. james: at a news conference, president zelenskyy would not detail the responses he's received to his wish list, but he said the conversations have been constructive. he also stressed that time is critical, with a new russian offensive expected in the coming weeks. james bays, al jazeera, brussels. ♪ mohammed: let's go ahead and bring it our guests in. in cute, serhii shapovalov -- in kyiv, serhii shapovalov.

in mussina, italy, daniela irrera, professor at the university of catania. and samuel greene. a warm welcome to you all and thanks for joining us on "inside story." serhii, let me start with you. russia launched a new wave of missiles across ukraine in the last several hours. what is the current situation for you right now in kyiv? serhii: the situation is ok. it is not the first wave of russian missile attacks. they are trying to target our energy infrastructure, so they aim at mainly civilian populations. they try to turn off the electricity for us. but, as you can see, i am with you. i have internet and everything. so russia fails another

time to harm our civilian population. and most of their rockets were intercepted. our general staff reported that 61 out of 71 cruise missiles were shot down. and it is thanks to our air defense and thanks to our partners who provide ukraine with advanced air defense systems. maybe it was a nervous russian reaction to these meetings of zelenskyy with eu leaders and the british prime minister, but we are totally ok. mohammed: let me turn to the topic of that trip by president zelenskyy. how significant was the trip, and how important was it that president zelenskyy was able to meet face-to-face with all these eu leaders at the same time? serhii: the main topic of the

zelenskyy meetings, with both the british prime minister and eu leaders, was to provide ukraine needs to repel russian aggression and to liberate ukrainian territories. in particular, it was about f-16 fighter jets, which are complex and expensive weapons. these meetings are an important step in their negotiation process. and without these meetings, a political decision to provide ukraine with fighter jets cannot be made. similar negotiations have been going on for a long time regarding other weapons systems. through diplomatic reports, ukraine convinced it's partners to expand military assistance and provide ukraine with more powerful systems. the air system, western tanks,

etc. firstly, political decisions should be made to transfer these weapons to ukraine. and these meetings are important because in making such decisions, the emotional aspect and personal trust plays an important role. and such meetings allow for these personal contact and personal trust between european leaders and volodymyr zelenskyy. if you remember -- mohammed: sorry, go ahead. serhii: if you remember, ukraine was granted eu candidate status afternoon leaders visited -- after leaders visited ukraine, and they witnessed russian war crimes. these involved the emotional aspects. it makes such decisions about granting status or providing ukraine with weapons easier.

mohammed: daniela, you heard that president zelenskyy is seeking more weapons and weapons systems from eu leaders. president zelenskyy also said that several european leaders have expressed to him their readiness to supply kyiv with fighter jets. i want to get your perspective on how likely you think that might be to happen. daniela: it is a very important and relevant meeting because for the first time, president zelenskyy have the chance to meet the european leaders. let me remind that there is a long and established relationship between the eu and ukraine. ukraine has been part of european policy, and also the u.s. has tried to play an important role already in 2014 and 2017. but zelenskyy always looked at the eu, at the european

countries. but we also have to remind and remember that european countries have different preferences when it comes to foreign policy, bilateral relations, defense policies. so it means that president zelenskyy was looking at the eu, but also relevant bilateral relations with some of the european countries. this can make the difference. obviously meeting the u.s. can be a symbolically different thing. but at the same time, it is clear that the president has prioritized those countries which have always supported more than others, like france and the u.k. but at the same time, we have to remember that different preferences and intergovernmental priorities may

play a significant role in this. mohammed: just to go back to a minute for the issue of fighter jets, because president zelenskyy did say private conversations he had with these leaders lead him to believe that they might be willing to send military aircraft or fighter jets to ukraine moving forward. from your vantage point, do you think that is something that is more likely to be considered now by eu leaders than it was in the past? daniela: it is hard to say, hard to predict, because of the different priorities european countries might have. zelenskyy could expect more military support. i just heard this morning that at the end of the meeting some political leaders want to be cautious, like president macron wants to be more cautious than yesterday, for example.

we can say that it might be likely to happen because this meeting could make a difference. but at the same time, we have to remember that the intergovernmental dimension is a strength for european countries. it is very hard to predict. mohammed: russia has said that if countries were to send fighter jets to ukraine that that would have ramifications for the whole world. this is rhetoric that we have heard in the past from president putin and members of his administration. but in this scenario, if that were to actually happen, if countries were to consider sending jets or were to actually send jets going forward, what would it mean when it comes to russia? and what would russia be prepared to do? samuel: the only person who really knows the answer to that question is vladimir putin, and his incentive is to keep everyone guessing and to make us

think that we should be deterring ourselves from supporting ukraine. the reality is we are about a year into this war and putin has tried, and his spokespeople have tried at various points, to draw various redlines. any sort of military support, any sort of economic support for ukraine was initially positioned as something that could lead to an expansion of the war. any provision of military support in terms of antiaircraft systems, in terms of artillery systems, then in terms of tanks. and what we have seen is that each stage russia really has not followed through with some of these threats. and we have seen again, the ukrainian military is capable and resilient. the ukrainian state and ukrainian society are capable and resilient, as well as a growing recognition in western

capitals that this is not a war that we can afford to allow russia to win. it will create a world in which we don't really want to live. while i think daniela is right that there are differences of opinion about how to achieve that victory for ukraine, i think we are seeing an increasing sense of confidence for western leaders, that they can and should continue to support ukraine in ways that will allow them to manage those risks. but that also there is an opportunity here to shift the logic of it. so the tanks that he was mentioning a moment ago will show up on ukrainian battlefields in a matter of months. to be honest, it takes time to train people, to get things shipped, to get things positioned, to get the supply lines in place. the same will be true for fighter jets when those are

eventually approved, and i think it is a question of when rather than if. but what we have seen particularly with the announcement from london that britain would begin to train ukrainian air force pilots, what that does is it shortens the delivery time. once we get to the point where a political decision is made to deliver these aircraft, they will be able to get into the fight much quicker, and that doesn't just change the dynamic on the battlefield. that changes the calculations for zelenskyy. it means he can afford to keep taking the fight to russia. but it changes the calculation for russia as well. putin has been hoping throughout this that he will eventually reach a point -- that we will eventually reach a point that western capitals are not willing to provide support for ukraine. what these commitments continue to show him is that point will not come until such time as russia has lost this war.

mohammed: let me ask you about a point you were making. you were talking about the logistics of this, supply lines. there are a lot of analysts who believe russia is on the verge of launching a new large-scale offensive in ukraine perhaps in the next few weeks. but one of the complicating factors here is the fact that when the ground begins to thaw, mud is going to be an obstacle. so are russian troops actually in a position to advance at this stage? samuel: it is very hard to know. we don't exactly know what they are planning, obviously. i myself h am not a military analyst. i think with the consensus is is that is going to be a difficult couple of months. the ukrainians have been clear that they are facing a russian military that has increased its manpower along the front lines, particularly in the east. that does seem to be looking to

make progress, not a galloping progress across ukraine, but to make marginal gains. they are also willing to take very significant losses in terms of manpower and equipment in order to do that. and in an effort to exhaust ukraine and exhaust the west. again, this communication that ukraine will not run out of support from the west, that there is more firepower coming to the frontline, that ukraine will be able to withstand this renewed assault from russia and will be in a position to counterattack is extremely important so the calculations on both sides. mohammed: daniela, right now we are seeing a unified eu that is bolstering its support to ukraine. but if the war continues to grind on, if it essentially becomes a war of attrition,

would at some point we ceu countries push to get ukraine and russia to the negotiating table? daniela: it is very hard as well because the u.s. already has other crises and has the ability to produce significant results on a legal scale. first sure. what i was told during the meeting is that the fight for ukraine is also the fight for these so-called eu values, democracy, freedom, civilization, and so on. this is what has been said until today, and it was symbolic support. what would happen in the future, let me remind what happened in 2017 and 2018 with the minsk agreement where the eu was expected to play a major role, and in the end it was very

difficult, and the situation remained a little bit unbalanced for a little while, then prolonged until today. so, it is very hard for the eu to find a common position. difficult in the best of conditions to find common positions. we have seen that common position is very difficult when it comes to provisions, when it comes also to relations amongst states, for energy dependencies, for germany or other countries in the eastern part of europe that are different compared to other countries in the western part of europe. so, what is missing is common ground in which all member states can act. we may expect some initiatives, some efforts on the part of eu organizations, the commission, for example.

but it is very hard to say that the eu will play a role again. mohammed: serhii, if things get to a point -- i know we are not at that point yet -- but if things were to get to a point where the eu or u.s., or the eu and the u.s., were to apply pressure on volodymyr zelenskyy, to get him to the negotiating table with russia, when it comes to potential negotiations with russia, where does public opinion in ukraine stand on this? serhii: in december, months ago, the organization that i represent, the ilko kucheriv democratic initiatives foundation, we conducted an international survey that showed 62% of ukrainians do not accept any compromises with the occupiers. another 18% of ukrainians believe that some compromises

can be made, but not all compromises. this means it is possible to negotiate on issues such as return of prisoners of war. but not political compromises or territorial concessions. about 8% of ukrainians are ready to make wide compromises, including political ones. as we can see, the vast majority of ukrainians believe -- they understand that russia intends to completely destroy our country and our people. the war crimes that they commit every day, shelling cities and killing civilians, executing people in the occupied territories, these acts can be clearly called genocide. therefore, there is no room for compromise. ukrainians want to be free people, and russia wants to kill us.

we have nothing to negotiate about. we will continue the fight for our freedom and liberate our territory from the occupiers. we have both determination and the resources to do so. and about the behavior of our partners, i don't believe that they will start pushing ukraine for compromises. i think that macron and german leaders who previously in the previous years, maybe they believed that putin is negotiable. but now they see that he is nonnegotiable, and she continues this war -- and he continues this war and there is no way other than to strengthen ukraine and force putin to stop this war. maybe those negotiations about tanks and public statements about tanks were a signal or sign for putin.

for example, americans and european leaders say that we may provide ukraine with tanks. and such a public statement is a sign to putin that either you are stopping this war now, or we provide ukraine with everything needed to just expel you from the territory of ukraine. you will be defeated in military terms. putin did not accept this sign, and it means that he is nonnegotiable. he doesn't perceive such "direct mitigation," but communication with such public statements. this is why the decision was made to give us tanks. mohammed: i am sorry to interrupt you, but we are starting to run out of time. sam, last month president putin replaced his top commander in ukraine yet again. that is the third time that has

happened in less than a year. will the appointment of garasa mov make a difference, or is there any indication it could make a difference? samuel: i don't think it is. i think what we have seen since then is a doubling down on the strategy that he was talking about right from the very beginning of this conversation and that we have seen since september, october of last year, when russia started these waves of bombardments on ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure designed to exhaust the country. it has failed to do that. they have brought to fruition the plan for a partial mobilization at least that will bring more manpower, and they will test the frontline. but at the end of the day, moving generals around and changing the chain of command does not give russia new technology. it does not give russia new armaments.

it really doesn't change the situation on the battlefield. it does not give russia a new military with which to fight or fundamentally a new strategy. the reality is that russia has picked a war, picked a fight it can't really win. and the initiative does really remain on the western side. there is nothing that putin really can do about that. mohammed: daniela, in the past, in video streamed addresses to eu meeting's and eu leaders, president zelenskyy has been critical at times of some of the european countries that he believed were not doing enough to help ukraine. was his tone in his address during this tour different? was it more diplomatic? was he trying to show his appreciation more this time around? daniela: yeah, it was completely different. the tone was more diplomatic, but at the same time i would say it was more strategic because it

was perceived that this meeting was not going to be symbolic only, because they have been too much symbolic until now. things are definitely going to be different. it is true there were some european countries, eu members that in the past had had been reluctant in respect to ukraine. but at the same time, what we saw during this meeting was more comprehensive across ukraine. obviously some countries like hungary did not demonstrate a complete new approach. but in some way, it would be zelenskyy -- because was expecting a bit more.

it was using a more strategic approach, a cautious approach. mohammed: serhii, we only have a couple of minutes left. i want to ask you, when it comes to president zelenskyy trying to ensure that ukraine can join the eu, do you think that ukraine will be able to join the eu in an expedited manner? and more importantly, what can eu membership offer ukraine? serhii: the eu membership is a long-term advantage for ukraine. it will allow ukraine to restore after all the devastation made by russia. this will also help to make our country better because in order to become an eu member states, ukraine needs to make reforms,

or otherwise ukraine doesn't become an eu member state. such reforms, they will not allow such things like corruption or mismanagement that were widespread in ukraine before. i think that eu membership will allow us to become better internally and in the future we will lead without such things like corruption that ruined us. and because of corruption, the money is spent in an ineffective way. mohammed: we are almost out of time. very quickly, do you think the eu will allow ukraine to join anytime soon? just very quickly, please. serhii: it will not happen until the war ends, i suppose, and i think it can take up to five or

seven years when such reforms that are needed for ukraine to join the eu. it will make this possible. mohammed: we have run out of time so we are going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks to our guests. serhii shapovalov, daniela irrera, and samuel greene. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by busying our website, aljazeera.com. for further discussion, go to our facebook page, facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. for me, mohammed jamjoom, and the whole team,bye for now. ♪

■

♪♪♪ emma alberici: while italy's north is in the grips of a health emergency brought on by the coronavirus-- [dogs barking] emma: the south is confronting a crisis of its own, a ruthless new mafia. dr. giuseppe avitabile: this kind of nigerian mafia is peculiar in this place. emma: sex, drugs, and people smuggling. emma: are you still scared of them? joy ezekiel: no, why would i be scared of them? emma: the nigerians have arrived. has the italian mafia met its match?