al jazeera. >> nigeria is set to hold elections this month, so what is at stake? will africa's largest democracy and economy elect more women into central roles? this is "inside story." welcome to the program. i'm tom mcrae. 93 million people are registered to vote in nigeria's election on february 25.

the country is the most populous in africa. it also has the continent's largest economy and is its topsoil producer, but with rising inflation, high unemployment, and insecurity in the northeast, a lot is at stake. 18 candidates are running for president, including one woman. the front runners in the presidential race are the former governor of lagos state, bola . tinubu but she's not the only woman running for a powerful position in nigerian politics. one female candidate in the conservative north is raising expectations she could be the

country's first elected state governor. activists say if she wins, it could mark a turning point for women in a male-dominated society. we will get to our guests in a moment, but first, this report. >> this is a moment female activists in nigeria have worked for. a woman from a major political party becoming candidate for governor, and she is a front runner. she says it has been worth the struggle. >> gives women, our daughters, our sisters, our aunties, our mothers the confidence that women can work towards occupying whatever elected position they desire. >> all the women make up half of

nigeria's population, they have long been on the fringes economically and politically. also by level of education, particularly in this part of the country, the women have been disadvantaged compared to men. >> but activists say changing attitudes and the strength in numbers can work for them this time. >> it is really time for women, and we don't want to miss this opportunity. we don't know when we will have this opportunity again. >> nigeria's general election later this month is being keenly contested and closely watched. women activists across nigeria are upbeat the election of a female will end decades of exclusion. if that happens, they say the presidency could be within reach. >> for now, supporters are celebrating what they have already achieved and say momentum is on their side.

>> for more on this, i'm joined by our guests now. the director of the center for democracy and development, a policy, advocacy, and research organization focused on development in west africa. in london, a political analyst and specialist on politicized ethnicities in west africa, and in washington, d.c., the head of africa practice at eurasia group. a warm welcome to you all. first of all, i just want to acknowledge what a remarkable panel we have today. we are speaking with three nigerian women about women in nigerian politics. if i can start with you first, how significant is that? would we have even been having this conversation a few years ago, do you think?

>> certainly not. i think the struggle to get access for women into nigerian politics has been an ongoing one. last year we saw occupations of the national simile by women after the national assembly rejected a bill for a minimum of 35% women, but i definitely think the rest of the year, we are seeing some palpable developments. certainly a conversation like this on a stage like this is significant. >> thank you for all being on "inside story." can we speak about what it would mean to finally have a woman in a powerful position in nigeria? how significant and symbolic would it be to have a woman elected for the first time? >> i think it would be quite an exciting time. it would be inspiring, for not only the women, but the

children, the girl child, and the very huge number of girl child, and even women, who are very marginalized politically, economically, and socially. this would be like a new beginning is what people will eventually feel. >> what chance do you give other women being elected in this election? >> it is really hard to tell. i think it is a close race. belani has a lot of support, and as you know, she is not the first woman to try. i think her chances somewhat depend perhaps on if the presidential candidate of her party wins because incumbency in

nigeria is a powerful thing, right? the incumbent governor will have the advantages of incumbency, but it is a close race, and she is gaining a lot of momentum. i would say maybe it is about 50/50 right now. >> i see you nodding along. what do you think she needs to do specifically to get over the line? >> absolutely. it is a difficult question to answer, so that's why i was nodding in that we got a people's race with the presidential election at the moment, so everything is kind of up in the air. she's about to point out that nigeria has historically been a two-party state, and having that kind of party machine behind you really can make the difference in an election like this. >> we will be keeping a close eye on her specifically.

nigeria ranks extremely low in gender equality index ratings. women are massively underrepresented when it comes to politics in nigeria. can you explain why that is and why it has been such a problem for so long? >> i think local challenges are actually responsible for this. you have modern candidates volume for this, and out of this, you have -- you have more than 400 candidates buying for this and out of this, you have 25 women. a lot of things are quite responsible for this. the fact that women are already marginalized economically.

religion is also a very important one, and this is one of the factors. it is believed that a woman cannot lead a prayer. easy to do that for a man, how will it be for a woman? most important is the fact that they never get the opportunity. they have the structure available to them, they have the money. they have all kinds of natural resources, human resources, that gives them the opportunity to traverse all parts of the state or country. >> how do we change that?

how does that change maybe not in this election, but in elections down the track? quick big question. let me just come in one second. it is quite fascinating that in nigeria, the northeast, which is a part of the country that people typically associate with women being more underrepresented or more subjugated because of religion -- actually, it is one of the most dynamic places so far in terms of women in politics, right? they have the second-highest representation in parliament second to the southwest. more than other parts of the south, and the two women who have provide on major political party tickets have come from the northeast, right? i think it is interesting, fascinating to think about the role of religion but also, you know, how that has played out in

nigeria. what will change it? i think things like this take us in the right direction. this is the second time we have had a major run for governorship by a woman on a major party ticket. if she wins, it will break the glass ceiling and start to change the narrative. >> do you think there needs to be a quarter to get more women into politics? do you think that would be a positive for nigeria? >> a lot of western countries are formally or informally taking that approach. i'm not so sure if you are trying to build a sense of faith in women's leadership that in a country like nigeria it will necessarily be a factor without some caveat, but ultimately, i do think also part of the move

towards equality and parity and representation is women also having the opportunity to fail. nigeria has had many failed governments, and that is never taken as a test of capacity to lead. i think we do ultimately need more numbers and need parties to make commitments to supporting the talent for women within the party, if that's at the senate level or in the legislature or the government level within executive power. then you can start to build a funnel for women into the top positions. so i think less about having quotas in the here and now but more about building the infrastructure for supporting and cultivating women's power. >> you were speaking earlier about the religious and cultural barriers women in politics come up against. what do you think some of the liberties to those -- how do women in nigeria overcome those,

do you think? >> i think it really going to be more about messaging, and it is about putting out the right narrative to show that in nigeria, historically, women are participating in the political process. all the core muslim faiths in nigeria have very strong women in the precolonial era, and we need to bring that into this colonial era. what is currently happening is

putting this kind of narrative so we can change the mind of the people. >> seeing women in power, in a powerful political position, what do you think that would do for the next generation of young girls and young women in nigeria? being able to have someone to look up to -- what would that do for the younger women in nigeria? >> i think it sends a clear message that the sky is the limit for everyone, if you're male or female, right? i think it creates inspiration. i think it would create more opportunity. it changes perception of society in terms of how women are treated in workplaces. i do think it has intangible impact, and that's why i have a slightly different view on quotas, if you want to call it quotas or encouragement. if you look around africa, the countries that have some sort of

guidance -- a lot of people don't like the word quotas. i don't like the word quotas, too, but the countries that have showed an intentionality, if it's through laws, regulations, or guidelines, are doing way better than nigeria. they have encountered rules within the party as well as national laws. in kenya, there are laws. they are not meeting those laws, but they are way better than nigeria in terms of representation. slightly over 20% of their parliament is female, and several more governments. rwanda has those kinds of rules. senegal has those type of rules. all of them are doing way better, so i think you have to push initially to get those numbers and let the intangible effects take you across the line. >> moving on from female candidates to female voters, are any of the main political parties or presidential

candidates trying to engage with female voters? are they pitching policies specifically towards women? >> there is certainly quite a bit in the couple of the manifestoes about maternal health, which is a really big issue for nigeria, preventing maternal death. unfortunately, it does not seem that any candidate has made any significant commitment to improving women's access to positions of seniority within society, if that's in the private or public sphere, but ultimately, i think that in an election like this where there are already so many different dynamics, you have a situation whereby marginally there are more men registered to vote then there are women in nigeria and you also have competing interests, it is understandable that that has not been the front and center of this campaign.

however, i think the role of civil society organizations, women ourselves as well, is to push candidates to start speaking in a specific and detailed terms about what they want to do for women. we have heard in the last five years a number of women appointed to see sweet positions, to leadership in private companies, and if that is not translating into the public sector and not translating into politics, then we really as a country have not much to show for it. >> much has been made about this election specifically, that there is a huge amount on the line. can you explain what is at stake for nigeria here. >> i think a lot is at stake. when it comes to the issue of women, you're talking in terms of, like, 40% of registered voters being women, and the woman representation is quite dismal in this election.

we might have a maximum of 3% or 4% of representation, so a lot is at stake. it is also important because at this point in the life of the country, where talking not just inclusion of gender, but inclusion of young people. ethnicity and religion also have to be represented. the best way to do this is to have an answer with every segment of society included. >> do you think unemployment and the cost of living inflation, the shortage of banknotes, even, is that leading to greater engagement because it's actually impacting people's everyday life, their wallets? do you think that is what has gotten people more engaged in this election?

>> i don't think it is the banknotes. it is hard to tell how the most recent issues will impact the election because they could well make some people not able to afford to travel to elections, right? it is hard to tell. i think the biggest driver is decades of underinvestment in nigerians, in public health care, in infrastructure, in roads. when people are disillusioned with the establishment. people are disillusioned with what both political parties represent, so i think there is a high level of -- it has been a while since we have seen this, over 20 years, and it is time for the democracy to deliver some dividends, beyond elections, right? i think there is a high level of frustration. i think it is great. i hope that the turnout is higher than we have seen in previous years because i think

that will send a strong signal to the political elite. >> do you think there will be pushback on the political elite? is there a candidate that stands out that can step up against the establishment? >> we are seeing a three horse race. we have seen a strong movement emerge. i think that more important than the actual candidates in this election is the political engagement that we are seeing, right? this cannot be seen in isolation. you've got a young population who are engaging with politics and making demands of politicians that they have not previously done, so i think regardless of what the outcome of the election is, given that party machines are fairly

powerful, it is not clear what the outcome is going to be, there is a strong sentiment that nothing is going to go back to normal after this, but if the energy is mobilized into organizations, youth organizations, mobilized into holding whoever wins the election to account, what we will probably see is if the next person fails to do the job in four years time, they will probably get voted out. >> yes, only get one shot at it. in previous elections, there's been claims that polls have been rigged. do you think this time, the vote will be free and fair others not going to be as much or any corruption? >> i think this time around, nigerians are very energized compared to previous elections, and lots of reasons for, for

instance, industrial technology has kind of imbued some confidence in the electoral system and is even making people want to turn out to exercise their vote. it is expected to take a larger-than-life role. the best way to influence the outcome is to buy the vote. it makes it difficult to buy. nigerian politicians are very adaptive and responsive. >> we will be keeping a close eye on how the election does play out. just to broaden it out even further, this election does have wider ramifications, doesn't it? nigeria being one of the largest

democracies in the world. it has consequences for elsewhere in west africa. how important is it in terms of setting an example how a strong democratic country looks like and what can be done? >> that's a lot of responsibility, but i do think it is important. can you, which is a much smaller economy, also had a very close election last year, last august. the opposition candidate who was actually the incumbent -- he was quite a fascinating race -- won, but it was very close. but it was seen as an example of what democracy should be, right? it was close. the losing candidate conceded. it was largely peaceful. it was mostly run on issues, right? i do think nigeria, the most populous country in africa, the

largest black nation in the world, and if we can get this election to be seen as credible, i think nigerians have the highest level of trust in the process today, in part because of the changes i was just explaining, but what is important is what happens after the election. it's being closely compared to a pre-horse race. the electorate is divided. there will be a big chunk of people who feel cheated in one way or another because they did not win. it is very important what the media does. very important what civil society does. it has become a favorite tactic of politicians to impugn the credibility of electoral processes. it is very important that

nigerian society and media does not let that happen in this election. nigerian elections will not be perfect. there will be some incidences of violence, intentional or unintentional, but as long as there is a general sense of, you know, people being able to vote in the way they want, it is very important for the rhetoric, for leaders, not just politicians, for media and civil society to lift up and reinforce the credibility of the process. >> quickly because we've only got a minute or so left, how hopeful are you that these elections will be run in a fair and nonviolent way, especially in the aftermath with three really close candidates? >> certainly. i'm very trusting of the new

changes. laws have gotten much stronger on malpractice, and we have already seen that in practice, but i think it really does hang in the balance, right? when you have people who are fully committed to a different nigeria, who believe genuinely that whichever candidate wins is the best for nigerians, you have all of the seeds you need for incitement of violence, so there is a heavy responsibility, and everybody who is speaking on the elections for participating in the elections not to stare that up. i do think, however, nigerians after a really long period of underinvestment, are tired. i think we are tired of fighting, right? i think whatever happens or

whatever is the outcome of the election, if everybody plays the role that they are supposed to, that people will be, regardless of which candidate wins, ready to get the ball rolling and ready to move forward. >> thank you so much. like you said, there is a huge responsibility and a lot at stake riding on this election. thank you so much to our three guests today. thank you, too, for watching. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. for me and the whole team here, bye for now. ♪ óúóúóúóúórórórórórórór■pçóñ■ñ■x■

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