02/23/23 02/23/23 [captioning made possible by democracy now!] amy: from new york, this is democracy now! >> the one-year mark of russia's invasion of ukraine stands as a milestone for the people of ukraine and for the international community. that invasion is an affront to our collective conscious, are violations of the united nations charter and international law.

amy: it has been one year since russia invaded ukraine, triggering a humanitarian crisis and a war that has impacted the globe. more than 8000 civilians have been killed. over 8 million refugees have fled ukraine. and the fighting continues. we will spend the hour looking at ukraine a year after the invasion, as well as the war's impact on africa and on russian-chinese relations as china's top diomat meets vladimir putin in moscow. all that and more, coming up. welcome to democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman. israel's military has bombed parts of the gaza strip after palestinian militants fired rockets at southern israel overnight. the israeli air strikes targeted the al-shati refugee camp northwest of gaza city, which is among one of the most densely populated areas of the besieged palestinian territory. israel says one of the rockets fired from gaza landed in an open field, while five others

were shot down by israel's iron dome missile defense system. the latest violence follows an israeli raid on the west bank city of nablus wednesday that killed 11 palestinians. health officials report hundreds -- more than 500 suffered tear gas inhalation and 82 people were treated for gunshot wounds after the assault. among the wounded is palestinian tv journalist mohammed al-khatib, who was shot in the hand. on wednesday, the u.n.'s special coordinator for the middle east peace process tor wennesland said he was "deeply disturbed by the continuing cycle of violence and appalled by the loss of civilian lives." his comments came after the head of amnesty international agnes callamard called on the u.n. human rights council to turn its attention to the occupied palestinian territories. >> at a moment where we ask th

entire international community foukraine againsthe russians agession, is absolutely ght. this russian aggression is uninkable. we cannot allow it. we can also not allow what is happening in the occupied territors of palestine. the human rights council must raise these realities and insist on these two realities. amy: in moscow, russian president vladimir putin led a massive pro-war rally wednesday coming just ahead of the first anniversary of russia's invasion of ukraine. an estimated 200,000 people joined the rally in moscow's main stadium. that is roughly equivalent to be estimated to be the number of russian soldiers killed or wounded in ukraine. this week the head of the russian mercenary wagner group yevgeny prigozhin accused the russian defense ministry of treason for allegedly attempting to destroy wagner by withholding ammunition and supplies. the u.s. estimates more than 20,000 members of the wagner group have been injured in ukraine, with about 9000 killed in action.

meanwhile, president joe biden wrapped up his three-day trip to ukraine and poland wednesday with a meeting of the "bucharest nine," leaders of the nato member nations that border russia. biden pledged the u.s. would invoke article five of nato's charter, the collective self-defense clause, if any member is attacked. pres. biden: article five a is a sacred commitment the united states has made. we will defend every inch of nato. every inch of nato. amy: a federal judge in new york ruled 9/11 families cannot claim $3.5 billion from the central bank of afghanistan as compensation. judge george daniels said "neither the taliban nor the plaintiffs are entitled to raid the coffers of the state of afghanistan to pay the taliban's debts." the money was part of $7 billion of afghan funds that were deposited in the new york federal reserve and frozen by president biden after the taban takeover in 2021. he subsequently allocated half of that money to aid efforts in

afghanistan, as afghans and rights groups fought to return all the funds to the afghan people amid an ongoing humanitarian disaster. the combined death toll from the february 6 earthquake and its aftershocks in turkey and syria has topped 49,000 according to cnn and continues to rise. the u.n. is warning there is an urgent need for shelter and aid in both countries. at least 1.5 million people in turkey became homeless from the quakes. meanwhile, the government of turkish president recep tayyip erdogan has issued fines to three broadcasters who aired coverage critical of the official earthquake response. in nigeria, 18 presidential candidates have signed a second peace pact ahead of saturday's pivotal election in africa's most populous nation. nigerians will cast ballots for their next president, as well as lawmakers, as muhammadu buhari steps down after serving the two presidential terms allowed by the constitution. it's the first time a candidate

who is not from one of the two main parties could win since the end of military rule nearly a quarter of a century ago. the three front-runners are bola tinubu of the ruling all progressives congress, atiku abubakar of the main opposition party peoples democratic party, and peter obi of the labor party. voters are hoping the next leader will be able to address the ongoing security threats from insurgents to kidnappings, as well as double digit inflation, and unprecedented oil theft. violence has plagued nigeria in the run-up to the election. wednesday, gunmen killed a senatorial candidate from the labour party in southeastern enugu state just days after suspected rebels killed eight police officers. some people say they will not vote for fear of reprisals as nigeria's electoral commission announced monday 240 polling stations will remain closed because of security concerns. this is a farmer in zamfara state who was forced to flee his home last year after his community came under attack. >> because my life is being

threened, th are targeting my life, i barelyanaged to escape and they're still looking for me. so how can i go out and cast my vote? amy: here in the united states, the special counsel leading the justice department's criminal probes into donald trump has subpoenaed ivanka trump and jared kushner to testify to a federal grand jury about efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. that's according to "the new york times," which reports the subpoenas by special counsel jack smith follow similar efforts to compel the testimony of vice president mike pence, who's reportedly resisting his subpoena. trump's former national security adviser robert o'brien and former chief of staff mark meadows were also recently subpoenaed by smith. minnesota lawmakers have approved a bill ending a requirement that applicants seeking a driver's license show proof of legal residence in the united states. democratic governor tim walz has promised to sign the driver's licenses for all bill, which will benefit more than 80,000

undocumented immigrants, most of whom are over the legal driving age of 16. the legislation was cosponsored by state senator zaynab mohamed, who moved to minneapolis with her family at age nine from somalia. >> we are doing a rule change to allow undocumented people to not have to provide social security numbers because they don't have them. this is about the safety of our roads. we can debate that because there are 40,000 accidents on the highways and the people of minnesota what to make sure the people who are driving on our roads have the driver's education they need. amy: passage of the driver's licenses for all bill caps two decades of campaigning by immigrant rights groups. also on wednesday, minnesota senators approved a bill to restore voting rights to people convicted of felonies as soon as they're released from prison rather than once they've completed their parole. current restrictions on voting

have disproportionately affected black and native american minnesotans. in florida, three people were shot dead in orange, including a nine-year-old girl and a journalist covering the violence. the violence began when a gunman opened fire on the girl's mother, killing her. hours later, the suspect returned to the scene and fired on journalists covering the initial shooting, killing 24-year-old spectrum news reporter dylan lyons and critically wounding photojournalist jesse walden. the nine-year-old was shot dead inside the home with her mother -- where her mother was also found in critical condition. police arrested a suspect with a lengthy criminal history that includes weapons charges. weekend news anchor luana munoz of orlando nbc affiliate wesh covered the scene. >> this is ever reporter's absolutely worst nightmare. we go home at night afraid that

something like this will occur. and i is what happened here. we are at orlando regional medical center where we have learned one of our fellow reporters has died out while covering a shooting. amy: the orlando shootings came as four family members were found shot to death in daphne, alabama. they were the 83rd and 84th mass shootings recorded in the united states since january 1. well over averaging one a day. the attorney general of pennsylvania is investigating possible criminal charges over the derailment of a norfolk southern train in east palestine. governor josh shapiro said environmental officials are continuing to monitor for any contamination in pennsylvania. shapiro spoke tuesday at a press conference with ohio governor mike dewine and epa head michael regan. >> we will hold accountable

norfolk southern, the company that made this vigilance necessary. the combination of norfolk southern's corporate greed, incompetence, and lack of care for our residents is absolutely unacceptable to me. amy: transportation secretary pete buttigieg is visiting east palestine today after coming under ormous preure for hi initial response to the disaster. critics say he should have visited the site of the crash immediately and rejected his claims that he was powerless to improve rail regulations. on wednesday, former president trump visited east palestine and blasted biden's response to the crash as well as his absence, saying he was busy "touring ukraine." in 2018, the trump administration rescinded an obama-era rule that would have required more sophisticated brakes on trains carrying hazardous materials. trump's epa also rolled back many environmental regulations. and here in new york,

environmental groups and community members are sounding the alarm after holtec international, the owner of the decommissioned indian point nuclear plant, said it plans to dump some 1 million gallons of radioactive water into the hudson river as soon as august. the water contains tritium, a byproduct of nuclear fission that cannot be filtered out of water and which would lead to a host of negative environmental and health effects. the advocacy group riverkeeper said, "it's time to draw the line against using the hudson as a dumping ground." and those are some of the headlines. this is democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman, joined by my co-host nermeen shaikh. hi, nermeen. nermeen: hi, amy. welcome to all of our listeners and viewers from around the country and around the world. amy: well, friday marks one year since the russian invasion of ukraine. over the past year, at least 8000 ukrainian civilians have been killed according to the

united nations, describing that as only the tip of the iceberg with the true death toll believed to be much higher. the u.n. refugee agency said this week more than 8 million refugees have fled the fighting in ukraine. on wednesday, u.n. secretary general antonio guterres repeated his call for the war to end. >> war is not the solution. war is the problem. people in ukraine are suffering enormously. ukrainians, russians, people far beyond, need peace. while prospects may look bleak today, we must all work knowing that genuine lasting peace must be. the longer the fighting continues, the more difficult this work will be. we don't have a moment to lose.

i thank you. amy: the u.n. secretary-general spoke as the u.n. general assembly debated a motion to demand russia "immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of ukraine." during the debate at the u.n., russia accused the united states and other western nations of trying to "plunge the entire world into the abyss of war" by sending military arms to ukraine. on wednesday, president biden met with leaders from nato's nine easternmost countries, the so-called bucharest 9. pres. biden: as nato's eastern flank your the frontlines of our collected defense, and you know better than anyone what is at stake in this conflict, not just for ukraine but for the freedom of democracy throughout europe and around the world. that is what president zelenskyy and i spoke about when i was in

kyiv two days ago. the leaders around this table have repeatedly stepped up to reaffirm our shared commitment to all of these values. amy: meanwhile in moscow, vladimir putin hosted chinese foreign minister wang yi wednesday. this comes as the biden administration is warning china against arming russia. u.s. ambassador to the united nations says china would be crossing a "redline if it provides lethal military aid to russia." well, today we will spend the hour looking at the war in ukraine and its impact around the world. we begin with two guests. in new york, nina khrushcheva is professor of international affairs at the new school. she is the great-granddaughter of former soviet premier nikita khrushchev. and hanna perekhoda is a ukrainian phd student in history at the university of lausanne. she is joining us from switzerland. she is a member of the democratic-socialist organization sotsialnyi rukh.

she is also part of the european network for solidarity with ukraine. born and raised in donetsk in eastern ukraine. we welcome you both to democracy now! hanna perekhoda, let's begin with you. it has been a year -- friday marks the one year, february 24, 2022, when russia invaded ukraine. can you talk about what has happened since? >> thank you for having me. ere are a lot of tngs to say today. a year ago, major powers assumed ukraine would fall within three weeks, but one year passed already and ukraine resists. this is not just putin who was surprised by this massive resistance, but also most of the observers from outside ukrain

i think it was the lack of expertise -- prevented us from understanding that this is a war of imperial regression and ukrainians will resist against. unfortunately, this lack of knowledge and this denial of ukrainian agencies still prevents some of us from understanding the nature of this war and from acting in a responsible manner. this when russian missiles were writing down on ukrainian cities again -- were writing down on ukrainian cities again. it showed as ukrainians the massive terror against civilians is a deliberate strategy of the russian army. this year what we saw in cities

from where russians were kicked out, these atrocities showed ukrainians -- this is the reason why after one year of full-scale invasion, ukraians still reject firmly the idea of partition of their country. they refuse to leave their families, their friends under the occupation where the face murder, rape, and constant terror. it is why they actually persist to ask for military support, not just ukrainian government but ukrainian people, in order to be able to defend themselves against the regime that expresses openly its genocidal intent.

nermeen: elaborate on that, russia expressing its dennis seidel intent. and also speak -- your joining us -- you are in l'viv, with a group of activists from europe where you went and met members of look -- between activists in l'viv, the first talk about russia's genocidal intent on ukraine. >> i will try a few words. to extend -- to understand the threat, it is nessary to rise what it means for political idtity. analyzing -- you political perspective, we often fail to see the relationship between russia and ukraine imarked by

history. putin is a russian nationalist. they see a separate existence of ukrainians as something which will link to the destruction not only of the so-called russian -- butlso the body of the russian nation itself. so crane is seen by them as an existential threat to their national identity. and as archaic as it may seem to some of us, national ideology still have a very great -- perpetrate wars and genocide. this war has a genocidal ideology. it denies the right of the other , the right of ukrnians to simply exist as a separate

enti. we have to take it seriously and to be aware of what the russian occupation means for ukrainians. there were a lot of specialists who were already alarming and saying against -- talking about the genocidal threat. so, yeah. about leave, --l'viv, and solidarity with ukraine, we formed a delegation of political excess, trade unionists, journalists for more tha12 european countries. we went to ukraine to meet the representatives of initiatives and communities, families, trade unions, lgbtq communities -- actually, we needed their perspectives. they are organizing themselves

to help each other. they are doing it on a huge scale. for the ukrainian population, this kind of direct solidarity which comes from ordinary activists from ordinary people and not from big international organizations, this is something very important. they do not want to be perceived as huge victims who expect charity because ukrainians are society which is resisting and self organizing and we decided we must show we recognize and support the agency of ukrainians. [indiscernible] not done at the expense of its population. we don't want external actors to decide what is good for ukrainians. we want the decision to build

the population. we made this delegation to help their voices to be heard, voices of local activists and other voices, so self-proclaimed experts who have never set in ukraine. nermeen: you have also said that activists in ukraine while simultaneously opposing the war, they have also systematically been imposing -- opposing the neoliberal policies of ukrainian government. could you elaborate on that, how long that has been going on and how it connects to this opposition to this war and simultaneously support for the government resisting the occupation? >> yeah, it is an important question because even before the invasion, ukraine was already one of the poorest and most and dead countries in europe.

-- and dead countries in europe. it has been at war for 18 years. this year the country's gdp has fallen and many people have lost their jobs, not only jobs, they lost their homes, their relatives, and unfortunately, they are not 8000 as you said before but probably tens of thousands are killed and military probably exceeded 100,000 men. ukrainians actually defend their country in extremely difficult conditions. but while they are doing it, the ukrainian authorities have not -- there continue to liberalize privatize the economy. they're undermining the economic and political sovereignty of --

that ukrainians are given their lives for. ukrainian people do not want to fall into new liberal dependents. and they need allies all over the world in their struggle against the russian occupation but also the antisoal policieof their own government. that is why ukrainian activists ask european and western countries to cancel the ukrainian foreign debt, to confiscate the russian assets to use them for the reconstruction of ukraine because ukraine will really need it. and they ask to make pressure on our government, to make the ukrainian government to respect

social and labor rights of the population because these are the conditions to rebuild a sustainable economy and to make a ukraine that millions are fighting for, to make this kind of ukraine a reality. amy: i want to bring nina khrushcheva into the conversation, joining our guest hanna perekhoda. nina khrushcheva is professor of international affairs at the new school. you go back and forth to moscow. your reflections on this last year since russia invaded ukraine, both inside russia and the total number of soldiers it is belved to have died were wounded, about 200,000? about the same number of people who were in the stadium yesterday as president putin addressed them. >> thank you, amy. first of all, i just want to say that many of us, thousands of us

coming millions of us are tremendously sorry for what russia did, is doing to ukraine. deeply embarrassing. there have been me of coppola -- mea culupa all the time but i want to move towards the question and we -- the russian casualties are secret. we don't know that. putin did speak at celebration at the stadium in moscow. 200,000. i was quite surprised. the number compared to the importance of this propaganda performance was, so they should have bussed more people into this. it wasn't --

while in the last year, look, we can't even start to discuss it in the presence of ukrainians but when i got to moscow in june last year, it seemed like putin and his speech you just spoke on the 21st, he had his address to his government, kind of talking about the war and what is the existential threat and what is not. in june, it seemed like the threat did not exist, it was more in terms of conversation. western signs and restaurants and people were living absolutely separate lives. by the time i left in january, you really feel the existential threat is not only in

conversation, not only in the conversation from the kremlin but everybody feels russia is behind the iron curtain, the self-imposed iron curtain from the west. but there's very little protests one can do. unfortunately, we see the protest -- you just quoted him saying t government doesn't give him enough ammunition so he can fight and whatnot. so there are a lot of cracks in the last year. putin's speech on the 21st seemed from come it is an existing shall threat against the whole west -- existential threat against the whole west. such as the cold war, although it is quite unclear what exactly putin's opsition, but never mind, basically bringing society into your geithner geopolitical idea that it is russia versus

everybody else because everybody else wants the end for russia. there are a lot of cracks in it. it is not entirely safe position of the war for putin to be in, especially in the speech on the 21st. it was a lot about thear and the west, but it was very little promise of how it is going to be in the future. russia is fighting, not clear at and how. -- not clear with what and how. the outcome of the year is the victory is not coming but the fight will continue -- amy: i want as you how you see this ending, professor, and also for the question to hanna. you explain what happened with the soviet union pulling out of afghanistan. what could happen here? >> it is impossible to predict but i think you and i spoke

about this at the beginning when it all started. in conversation with somebody next to putin who said it was going to be an afghanista disaster. that was two days into it. it seemed plausible but it also seemed impossible at the same time. why would one get into the situation that is so obviously going to be a losing proposition? today we see it is an afghanistan because afghanistan was like that in 1979. not that he was losing power, but needed to strengthen the soviet project. in some ways, putin needed to strengthen the russian imperial project. ukraine is important to that imperial project.

so you go in put absolutely so wrong about going in because you lose perspective after 22 years in power -- 15 years in power at that time -- so you lose perspective and start a w that has no solution. we don't know how it is going to end. that is what we heard on the 21st, for putin now, the victory is if the west stops being in a position to russia. that means and what you mentioned joe biden means even being in poland, for joe biden it is the west is not going to retreat. the west is going to stay firm. so for both of them, they both announced it is something that another side cannot win. four putin, the west set off -- we are in a protracted battle

until russia or ukraine, and i hate to say that, but it is possible, either russia kind a longer fight. in the negotiations would come. but that can take really a very long time. and it can be victory for ukraine before that. i don't see how it will be victory for putin but i don't think we can predict in the near future how it is going to rebuild. i do think it is a long, long fight, as long as putin stands firm and that is what he said it is speech, he is going to stand firm, he is going to wear the west out, wear ukraine out by destroying infrastructure. he is going to put everything on his victory -- or at least not his defeat. once again, we don't know where it is going to happen, how it is going to happen, and how long it will take.

nermeen: nina, could you talk about the extent to which or if at all perceptions within russia have cnged of the war? >> well, at the beginning, there was really strong opposition. in a week, the free mia was gone, independent organizations were gone, people were arrested in the streets. even when i was leaving in january, at least one third of the people in the street in moscow were police. police are walking route essentially giving you the message that youre not going to be protesting. every turnstile at the subway had police standing next to it. they're not there to arrest but they are warning you if something happens. putin's message changed this year. in the beginning was

demilitarization, preventing the destruction of the eastern parts of ukraine and so on and so forth. then the shrieking message would become more and more existential . in the speech on the 21st, it was, look, that is how we are looking at it. we as a country. and don't you dare think anything differently about this. people started supporting the war but they are much more afraid now. they are terrified now to say they are not supporting. i did my own in january in december and i would say over 50% of the russian population absolutely do not support this.

what, we're not going to be existing? there's a very kind of split reaction to all of this. the war wants -- i mean, russians -- any russians, not all russians, many russians do not want to be defeated. i think the kremlin uses this crack in people psyche quite well. on the other hand, there are a lot of cracks in putin's entourage. if you look at the audience on the 21st, you could see some of them were really pained by this pronouncement. they really wanted it to be over. they just have not decided how they can go about it. nermeen: hanna, final thoughts, how do you see this unfolding now? >> i am an historian so i cannot

make predictions, but i can explain some tendencies that i see. i'm sure a compromise with putin would set a deadly precedent given the imperialist drive to which the war of aggression and nuclear lack mail and it would literally restore the system of international relations before world war i and ii. i think history shouldave taught us the most terrible wars happen when we forget peace and democracy are not just empty words, they are achievements of our past struggles, achievements that must be constantly preserved in the face of authoritarian forces. ukrainians have not forgotn th yet, but a lot of people in the weern countries seem to have fgotten this simple truth. amy: hanna perekhoda, thank you

for being with us, ukrainian phd student at the university of lausanne. and nina khrushcheva is professor of international affairs at the new school. coming up, will get how russia and chinese relations have changed since russia invaded ukraine and then a view from the global south, particularly africa. how the continent is affected by the ukraine war. stay with us. ♪♪ [music break]

amy: this is democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman with nermeen shaikh. as we continue our coverage of the first anniversary of russia's invasion of ukraine, we turn now to look at how the war has impacted russian-chinese relations. on wednesday, russian president vladimir putin hosted chinese cap diplomat wang yi in moscow. this is putin. >> international relations today are more difficult. they have not improved after the collapse of the bipolar system. on the contrary, they become

more sharp. in this regard, cooperation and the international arena between the people's republic of china and the russian federation as we have repeatedly underlined, plays an important role in stabilizing the international situation. >> i think we have every good opportunity today to continue our close strategic cooperation and contact and protection of our strategic interests. the relationship between china and russia have adopted a mature character. it is solid and will withstand all tests of shifting international situation. it is important to coordinate ourositions on the bilateral agenda as well as a regional and international spheres. amy: so that was kind of top diplomat wang yi and russian president vladimir putin. chinese president xi jinping is expected to visit moscow in the coming months. meanwhile, the biden administration is warning china against supplying russia with

lethal military aid. saying doing so would be crossing the redline. joining us from baltimore, maryland, is ho-fung hung. he is a professor of political economy and sociology at johns hopkins university. his books include "clash of empires: from 'chimerica' to the 'new cold war'" and "the china boom: why china will not rule the world." professor, welcome back to democracy now! can you talk about the significance of, well, what has happened in the last year? and then you have the u.s. kerfuffle with china over the balloon, which has really intensified hostility. and finally, yet yesterday wang yi, the top diplomat, even with president putin and their message to the united states and the world. >> thank you for having me. it is something that everybody expected to happen, china is getting closer and closer to

russia. when we look back a year ago, right before the russian invasion of ukraine happen, xi jinping and putin had a summit in beijing and issued a statement. in the joint statement, and urge everybody to go back and reread the statement, it laid out a clear and systematic vision of the new world order that both russia and china agree on. that is russia and china should have their own influence. in the case of russia, it is soviet space including the former soviet state and china, taiwan and asia pacific region. in the statement, they pledge supporting each other, desired to get rid of u.s. allies and u.s. influence in their spheres

of influence. it is a clear manifestation of their shared strategic interests. after this statement was issued, shortly the war happened, russia invaded ukraine. from the perspective they had the reasons to wish putin's success because if the west failed to stop putin and if putin succeeded in ukraine, then the western or international alliance of the u.s. would lose its credibility and it will provide china with a larger freedom of action over the south china sea issues and taiwan. nermeen: professor, could you respond to the question of whether china can play a role any mediations or diplomacy in

negotiating an end or war cease-fire in this war? european officials including macron say china should play such a role. china is due to issue a position paper tomorrow or before tomorrow. what do you expect that position paper to say? what prospects do you think there are that china could play a key mediating role? >> if china is willing to do it, it has the potential to do it. china is important economically. now putin depends a lot on china's economic assistance and financial sanctions and providing assistance to russia right now. so definitely putin will listen to china. before the war, china have been close to ukraine. let's not forget ukraine helped

china get first aircraft carrier after the soviet breakup. china -- unfortunately, after the war broke out, after russia started invading ukraine, china ha been at least from the perspective of the objects come has been very close to russia but not so to ukraine. for example, there are states that claim neutrality and say they're waiting -- like turkey, which is part of nato. erdogan visited russia and met with putin but he also visited ukraine and met with zelenskyy. it is more two sides.

israel is doing the same, the israeli leaders meeting with putin and also talking to the ukrainian side and providing humanitarian assistance to ukraine. china right now over the last year, they've been talking to the russian side and expressing and the propaganda machine is repeating all the interpretation of the war and they don't even call it an invasion, a war, they call it the special uppers they special operation and blame the u.s. for starting the war. we don't see a lot of effort on the china side to meet with soul and ski. china has -- the perception has but it is only on the russian side. nermeen: what about the question of china supplying russia with military equipment and weapons?

china has denied it will do so but there are reports that will happen. u.s. officials claim likely zelenskyy said that will lead to world war. the american abbasid or to the u.n. said that would be crossing -- ambassador to the u.n. said that would be crossing a redline. do you think that is likely? >> i think it will be likely but it will be a more ambiguous situation. look at how china support cover example, the north korea program and iran and syria. china has been helping to evade sanctions for a long time. it is far from a formal government support. in china, [indiscernible] what i expect would happen is these companies would provide

assistance. i think there already providing financial assistance. there's a lot of evidence. for example, a trading company in hong kong has been found providing chips and components and key supplies to support the russian drone program. so a lot of these companies are going to help russia. i won't be surprised if in the end, some of these companies are found providing legal support to the russian war effort. but the government looked the other way and helped russia and the people are trying to hold china's government accountable, they just say it is not the government doing it. this kind of thing has been going on regarding china assistance of north korea and iran and other sanction states to evade sanctions so i won't be surprised if china's to the same

with russia. amy: professor ho-fung hung, thank you for being with us, teaches economy and sociology at johns hopkins university. coming up, how russia's invasion of ukraine has impacted africa. that in 30 seconds. ♪♪ [music break] amy: this is democracy now!, democracynow.org, the war and peace report. i'm amy goodman with nermeen shaikh. as we continue our coverage of the year of russia's invasion of first ukraine, we look at its

impact on africa where many countries are facing spikes in fuel and food prices while already coping with ongoing conflicts, as well as the climate crisis. this week russia, china, and south africa are holding military exercises off the coast of south africa. our next guest is kenyan writer and political analyst nanjala nyabola, who wrote in her september piece in foreign affairs headlined "africa's ukraine dilemma: why the continent is caught between russia and the west." it is great to have you with us again. why don't you talk about that? your thesis that africa is caught between the west and russia and what that means, what russia has done in africa and also the effect of the ukraine war. >> thank you for having me back, amy. it is a multilayered issue. i think it is important to establish from the top that africa is a large place, complicated continent. instead of there being one

signal response to russia's invasion of ukraine, there has been multiple responses to the war. there countries that have actively come out in support of russia and engaging diplomatically and militarily for various reasons. you look at the central africa republic and these are where not only has there been a retreat democracy but has been outright conflicts for the last 10, 15 years. it has created a leadership vacuum that russia -- russian paramilitary groups or militia groups have been able to exploit. these are mercenary groups that are providing military support and basically holding up governments that are overseeing estate that is all but collapsed and everything. these are the countries providing the most diplomatic support or vocally coming out in favor of russia and it is crisis. then there are countries like sudan and uganda and zimbabwe

which i found themselves on the wrong side of political intervention, whether we're talking about sanctions against the military regime and are sudan, sanctions against the regime and is zimbabwe. you get the sense they are playing off western countries and russia to try to get some leeway, some kind of political room under a sanctions regime. south africa doesn't really neat need -- is not facing sanctions, does not need the kind of political support that a country like sam bob way or the central africa republic might need. to understand south africa, we have to understand the political history of africa over the entire 20th century. this is something a lot of western analysts grapple with because of the inability to contend with topics like racism, colonialism, imperialism.

south africa was the last african country to gain independence. throughout the worst years of the apartheid regime, there is a lot of support coming from western governments the apartheid government. it was the countries of the east that provided the support the anti-apartheid military required to stand up against the apartheid regime. for someone like sil ramapo so -- seal ramapo so,, history and relationships, and colored this history that western analysis provides itself incapable of this understanding of what the history looks like when viewing it from africa. the vast majority of african countries embrace a more neutral tone. we're talking about nation so navigating european excess. when we think about the mediterranean crisis, the refugee crisis and the

subsequent militarization of the region, many african countries are having to navigate losing effectively sovereignty over their boundaries because of european politics, security concerns. we're talking about initially though moral hazard of neoimperialism is something that many african countries are struggling with. they are caught between a rock and a hard place, a choice between last 10, 20 years whereby the political relationship between africa and europe is not of equals, has been one of being consumed and seen as a place that is only valuable for its natural resources and being stuck with russia's neoimperialism also has that political familiarity from a slightly more abstract position. i think that is why neutrality appears to -- appeals to african countries. we don't want to repeat recent history even though there is a recognition of what is happening

within ukraine ifundamentally unjust. nermeen: you talked about this also in your foreign affairs piece, if you could speak specifically -- you just spoke about south africa and others. if you could speak about uganda more and also cameroon that are both, in the case of cameroon france and in uganda, the u.s., are receiving military equipment from russia. if you could talk about that, russia now being the largest exporter of military weapons to africa? >> it is a fraction that exists in many african societies between the citizens of the country and i governments that ruled. both uganda and cameron are run by governments with serious human rights violations against

her own people. these are governments not legitimate. there have been serious efforts to suppress democracy, surprised rights. -- suppress freedom, suppress rights. it allows them to remain and impose themselves on the people. that creates the legitimacy gap that russia has been able to exploit because there isn't that ability to put pressure on these governments. there's no domestic pressure that can be put on the leaders because the opposition has stopped -- there's an ongoing conflict he has been able to paper over in the public consciousness. there has not been the same kind of multilateral response that we have seen in other conflicts, including in ukraine -- even of death is significant.

these leaders are exploiting the legitimacy gap to play these two sides against each other. uganda for the longest time was a favorite country in the west, massive recipient of aid and still is. has participated in military training exercises with the u.s. as late as 2020. united kingdom provides a lot of military development assistance to uganda. ugandan people cannot hold the president accountable. it is a democratic gap that makes it possible for leaders to seek ways to play off the russia versus the west. purchasing arms to oppose itself in the region. this is the challenge that is facing a lot of african people that i think if you ask the citizens of these countries who find a little bit more moral clarity and more empathy even if you will with the ukrainian

cause, but because they're represented by leaders who don't represent the will of the people, who have been propped up by western governments the better part of the last 40 years, there really is no way to get the legitimacy except on the whims of -- except on the whims of the leaders and right now it is about political survival of those individual leaders rather than there being a larger moral con pursued here. it is about surviving another five years, 10 years. nermeen: could you also say quickly the impact of the war in terms of food prices, fuel, etc. across the con jeanette? >> amy: we just have 20 seconds. >> this is the biggest issue because the war coming at a time when there was already climate crisis. in east africa, we will see spiking food prices because of

those in somalia and is has been exacerbated by the fact ukraine, russia, the largest great exporters in the world, massive dependents also on food aid coming from the world food program coming from -- amy: nanjala nyabola

politics of climate change #1 r638_australia's coal conundrum captioncube (hue kay)