across ukraine, most the death toll mounts in the bloody battle of bakhmut, with both as far apart as ever, is the were locked in a violent stalemate? what chances diplomacy there is. this is inside story. ♪ >> hello there and welcome to the program. a barrage of russian l --

airstrikes will people up across ukraine on thursday morning. some reportedly involved hypersonic missiles which can travel up to eight kilometers, second. here's the latest wave of attacks in a conflict that shows no sign of ending. russia has a limited stock of these missiles which ukrainian defenses were not able to intercept. the change in tactics has made the war hard to protect. for those facing the strikes they never know when a missile will come to their home. >> i was in the park at 6:00 a.m., on the way home a rocket flew over my head. it was loud. there were two powerful explosions. it was flying towards my house. when i arrived i saw big flyer. my car was burning, but there was nothing i could do. it was too dangerous. it does not make sense to me how this could be the 21st century. just savages.

>> my house shook. i immediately understood and hit somewhere near my house. it is 50 steps away. i feel so sorry for her. she was such a good girl. more people died. >> in the east, ukrainian generals promised to defend the city of bakhmut reversing speculation that a pullout was imminent. moscow has been pouring in military resources from its group. both sides have suffered heavy losses. the capital has become a major military objective. the city has little strategic importance but the lengthy battle suggests a simple victory for whomever controls it. we will. get to our guests in a moment. . let's take a quick look at who controls what in ukraine. russian forces have taken over these regions in red, pushing a thin line to these positions. ukrainian forces took control of the city of kherson and are resisting the russian offensive,

while awaiting nato equipment. despite the concentration in the east, russian artillery and missile attacks are targeting other regions across ukraine. ♪ let's bring in our guests now. in moscow, a defense military analyst. in odesa, director of security programs at the think team ukrainian prison. in england, an associate professor of security. welcome to each of you. let's go to you first, these russian missiles have been hitting cities and sites across ukraine, including in odesa where you are. what happened? >> you know, this attack was one against the critical infrastructure, the energy infrastructure while the country is being targeted.

we also need to understand that this was the first big attack after the months of calmness and small armies used against ukraine. they used approximately 81 different types, which demonstrates the capacities of the russian strikes. the use five or six different types of the missiles including six. what is interesting is that is very rare. brushes did not have a lot of them. the previous year the use the same amount. that demonstrates that each time, they are accumulating those missiles that they can use. >> what was the point of the strikes? well, officially it was announced in moscow that these were reprisals for an alleged ukrainian led partisan raid

which russia described as a terrorist attack. they said they did not have anything to do with it. this was some kind of reprisal. targeting ukrainian power grids, infrastructure. apparently the russians campaigned such attacks or rather failed because the power grid in ukraine has managed to continue and ukrainians have managed to cover up their losses and the power grid is functioning. it did not work strategically. technically, it did. >> spectacular attacks. do you agree with that? what is the strategy from the russians using these different types of missiles, including the hypersonic missiles? >> of course the different

missile systems is to get around an increasingly capable air defense sweep that ukraine has. we've seen them hitting higher percentages of russian missiles than they were in the early stages of the war. the new systems are coming in. they're getting air defense systems. using advanced missiles, fired from different kinds of platforms with different directories, makes it difficult to track everything and take it down. the strategy, the reprisal thing is definitely accurate. but i also think, what we see is a pattern. russia suffers a setback. it unleashes a series of barrage attacks. that has been going on since last summer. you remember the attacks when they started off on shopping centers, right through to the concerted campaign against

critical national infrastructure over the winter to try to put the pressure on ukrainians, amounting to what it would be comparable to the strategic bombing campaign in second world war. the point is, these campaigns don't work. there is no evidence to suggest, on a local level, that the population's has changed for the worse. there is no evidence. why would you, if you were getting bombed, go on and say, let's give up? >> you are there, do you agree with patrick? this does nothing to change the morale in ukraine. it must be terrifying for people. >> definitely. it's terrifying. try to spend your night in the shelter. you not like it. but, the question is, we've been living with this for the whole year. it's the psychology of people, used to the difficulties you have. that is one thing. with this type of attack, it's

the same. first of all, you have to be prepared for it. he don't know which region -- you don't know which region, today we had odesa. at the same time, really we were worried in the beginning of the winter, with all these attacks against the critical infrastructure. it's -10, -15, without electricity and heating, it is difficult. we survive the winter both because we had generators. all of the additional supply that allowed big companies to work in households to work. at the same time, spring came, definitely that is easy. people just look to that. becoming more angry. anger is probably not the best term that ukrainians feel against russians, and against these attacks. discussed, that is something --

digust, that is something, tiredness and disgust. their coming and coming, and your fighting. -- your fighting. >> stay with them for one more moment. these attacks have been striking the zaporizhzhia plant and that has been taken off-line. does russia see that as a victory? >> it would be if the ukrainians agree, a cease-fire based on more or less the line of control, as it is right now, accepting russian advances and pressure taking over parts of ukraine. that is not happening. that was the hope of this whole campaign, as it began, to

deprive the ukrainians of power grid during the winter. it didn't work out as intended. while this missiles, quite a number is landing, but compared to how many americans can send missiles, this is not very much. most of the missiles being used are designed originally. the new system of nuclear weapons. when they carry conventional ones, they are not as effective, not as accurate. when there is a new one, you don't need much accuracy. the russian general staff is planning massive years of nuclear weapons, then the number of attacks would have been really deadly. again, this is nothing -- not a nuclear war. it's a war by proxy, not well with nato.

this thing is not working. syria used as such missiles. but, they were kind of just in addition. most of it was russian bombers hanging overhead and bombing. here they can't. ukrainian air defenses are too good for that. the russian air force is not good enough. this is not working strategically. as it was intended. >> let's zone in on the battlefield and look at bakhmut, where one could argue russia is having more success. we saw the wagner group claim part of the city. how likely is it that the group will take the whole city in the coming days? >> ukrainian command and political leadership decide to hang on in bakhmut. what's happening there in the ground is the ukrainians

retreated behind the line of the back mood -- bakhmut river. they blow up several bridges and that divides the city in half. that is a reasonable position to take, to continue defense. that means taking half does not mean they will take all very soon. now, there is somewhat of a pause. >> a pause, but it has been a bottle of attrition -- battle of attrition. why is zelenskyy refusing to pull forces out of bakhmut, even if it was reported, that it's top military commander has suggested, it should retreat. >> we have the news in the foreign media. we don't have a confirmation. that is -- we don't know what is the truth. in general, we need to

understand that russia is trying to take the city, has been since july. that was very important, meaning they are losing a lot of forces and ammunition. that is good for us. at the same time, strategically, you are right, it's so important. psychologically that could be important for the russian federation because they can prove since july they brought at least something. bakhmut is a small town, 20,000 people. like a big village in ukraine. it was a symbolic city. not from the military point of view. as the symbol, the fortress, because of the battles happening there. that is why -- that allowed

russians to go ahead. we understood putin announced his desire to occupy the donetsk region. we saw several deadlines he put on his forces. each time it is not happening. it's ruining the strategic plans of the russian federation. >> what do you think about this battle for bakhmut, that is been going on for many months? huge losses on both sides. it's much more symbolic than strategic. >> seven months now. i think so. obviously, russian needs a win for political reasons. this was the place it was going to be. , again it would have given them more control of the nets -- the next -- donetsk. the russian military, he said he will take it so he has a lot of interest to do so. the russian military came undermine to take it themselves.

because it has gone on so long, so many people have been killed, maybe 30,000 russians, you have to be in the thousands of ukrainians at least, there is a blood sacrifice there. when there is blood capital being expended, then there is political capital. the fortress bahkmut becomes more important. unfortunately, it is a reverse psychology. it does not mean you said lose -- you should lose more people. nevertheless, what is going on here, if you zoom out, what this is about, this is a shaping operation by the ukrainians. they are trying to set the conditions using this operation for other operations. what are they trying to do? they have a defensive advantage in bakhmut. they are killing three times the amount of russians for everyone they lose. it could be between five and seven. therefore, it's in their

interest to continue this battle as long as they can, do so without getting a lot of forces cut off. what they are trying to do is drain russia and keep russia attacking them at a place of their choosing. that means russia is not actually going on the defensive. its focus is on taking bakhmut. >> what is your response to that? in bakhmut the idea is three to five russians are being lost for every ukrainian. are you hearing those numbers in russia? is that common knowledge? >> it's hard to say. both sides are not publishing their actual numbers of casualties. who is losing more? i would assume it is kind of more or less equal, most likely. the battle in 1916, the

defending french lost more than the attacking germans. basically, it was more or less the same. it's highly symbolic if bahkhmut falls, that is a great moral booster for the russians and for the kremlin and internal politics. apparently military considerations are taking second place your for both sides. it is a battle of wills, like stalingrad, a meatgrinder. the military considerations are secondary. >> how significant is it for them? to have this victory? he has become a powerful voice on the battlefield and is quick to criticize the kremlin defense ministry if he feels he is not getting enough support.

how significant is he becoming? >> very significant. he has a private army, that has dramatically expanded from several thousand deployed somewhere in syria or in the central african republic. to tens of thousands of fighters with his own tanks and artillery. he is close personally. here's attacking the defense minister and the defense ministry, the second in it command. he is a very vocal political figure in russia, with his own private army fighting out there. and with connections in the kremlin. he is financing it. for him, it is high importance, to take over bakhmutt.

for the defense ministry, they don't want him to take over ba khmut. because he is there political opponent. there's a lot of infighting on the russian side. >> when you look at this infighting happening, between the wagner group and the defense ministry, do you see that closing a problem -- posing a problem for russia? >> it goes without saying, you don't want a large martial army at odds with your army. russia has had a problem with command and leadership since day one of this war. the issue with bakhmut, what are they go if they take it? to the west, directly west, it's easier to defend. the two roads lead northwest and southwest, there will be defensive lines around their -- there.

it does not change the calculus much. my view on this, strategically, this is about reserves. it's about training combat power. if ukraine can get through this grinding warfare without committing the reserves which needs to keep a back and attacked for the summer, what is going to try to attack in one or two places, that is a victory for ukraine. russia, is trying to take this in the meatgrinder affect. it has some committed reserves. but the chances of them being able to conduct a break engine and take ukrainian territory, it's questionable. it's really about reserves, manpower, and an eye on the future, campaigns coming in the future and late spring. >> i want to touch on the idea of peace talks. they don't seem to be on the agenda at the moment. we just had, antonio guterres in

kyiv. no mention of peace talks by him, only discussing grain and accessibility to rest of the world. is it on anyone's minds to get russia and ukraine to the same table? >> there are different proposals coming. china expressed their position. the question is the talks are just the instrument, not the ultimate goal. what are we going to discuss at these negotiations? we see the russian position has not changed since march last year. we had these negotiations, at that time there were much higher chances to find compromise from two sides. that's why the united nations in general, the secretary-general took a low profile during the invasion, let's be honest. the grain deal is the most important. now, this march we're not

sure russia will allow this. that is why he is trying to negotiate this. the zaporizhzhia part talked about earlier, and in general the nuclear security, that is also about what the united nations is talking about. humanitarian aid. but they're not ready to propose anything more than this. the united nations and the secretary is not waiting for others to propose their ideas. >> wherewith those proposals come from? we have had something produced from china, the 12 point peace plan being dismissed widely, as more of a set of principles, rather than a plan. where else could we get ideas from? >> the russian kremlin says that they have the same proposals as last march. basically they would agree for some time -- some kind of

freezing of the situation. permanent cease-fire based on the line of control. with some negotiations here and there, with ukraine not accepting, at least the western governments, donald trump says he achieved peace swift, probably on russian terms. cease-fire, more on the lines of control. that means the positions of these parties are miles apart. russia, though they praised the chinese proposal, the kremlin said right now it is not practical, because there's no one to negotiate with. ukraine -- negotiate with in ukraine.

before there is action in early, late spring, the military campaign can change the facts on the ground. it may change or may not. on the basis of that, somewhere in the summer, beginning in autumn, there can be negotiations on finding something to legalize the new situation on the ground as it is by then. right now, we are looking for a big fight. >> i can see nodding. do you envision peace talks by the end of this year? what situation on the battleground will it have to be like? >> he is exactly right. it's about fighting and not talking now. the results of that will inform any chance of talking. there either will be, an opportunity come winter. but, there is an interesting

thing about timing. donald trump's statements, who knows if you will be the president or not, but there is an election at the end of 2020 for in the u.s. of which the u.s. policy can change. there is a section of republicans that said the u.s. is too involved in ukraine. that will be weighing heavily on ukrainian timescales. secondly, i russia -- russia it has an advantage to produce weapons like artillery. over time, on the current redactor, that may favor -- trajectory that may favor them. there is an awareness that ukraine wants to do the best it can the summer and see where it is afterwards. it does not really need or want to be in a long-term battle, war with russia. it may start to favor russia. you have the whole point of the western commitment to it, which has been great, in terms of

european commitment. but, could that waiver? the variables get a bit more unknowable, the longer ukraine pushes. there will be a window, hopefully in the autumn. i would not rule out, depending on what happens on the battlefield, a frozen conflict through escalation. we have seen that happen previously in korea, when nuclear powers got involved. i think there's a lot. we don't have full clarity. >> the last thought going to you. the longer this drags on, how concerned are you, ukrainians, about wavering western support? >>, definitely we depend a lot on the additional ammunition we are receiving. at the same time we need to understand, that it is not just the u.s. the big sure that the u.s. have politically and technically, but

we have 54 nations in the group, plus the european union, just made a decision about the joint securement and production of the ammunition. that's important for ukraine. the european countries would like to play bigger roles in this understanding elections can change the stance in the u.s. we should not just think about the west as something united. there are different options. ukraine is working on those. ukraine produced a lot of weapons by ourselves. it's not that we are just relying on the supplies from our western partners. at, the same time the russian federation is decreasing the amount of what they produce. sanctions, the second because of the spare parts made abroad, but not in russia. that's why we see much less production.

it is not what they can do for a long time. >> this has been a fascinating discussion. i want to thank all of you for joining us here. pavel felgenhauer, hanna shelest , and patrick bury. you can see the program any time by visiting our website al jazeera.com. for further discussion go to our facebook page. facebook.com/aj insidestory. from me and the whole team here in doha institute, it's bye for now. ñtñf?o■ñ■#■#■#■■ñl úç

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