a smile on everybody else's face. folly: peace talks between saudi officials and houthi-backed rebels in yemen. after hundreds of thousands of killed, could this be a breakthrough to end years of war, and what would a famine mean for the region? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. i am folly bah thibault. it has been one of the worst

conflicts since the second world war but negotiations in yemen are offering hope that lasting peace may be on the horizon. the war has global dimensions, reaching from tehran to react, from abu dhabi to washington. but it is the people of yemen who have lost the most. they are victims of a conflict in one of the world's poorest nations, a war driven by some of the richest. we will be talking about the prospects for peace with our guests in a few minutes, but first, a look at how we got here. reporter: the rival parties in yemen's lengthy war. mediators from a -- leading efforts to broker a cease-fire between saudi arabia and houthi rebels. the head of the talks, the group outlined their conditions for peace. >> our just demands are stopping the aggression completely, lifting the blockade completely, paying the salaries of all

yemeni employees from oil and gas revenues, compensation, and reconstruction, as well as the exit of foreign forces from yemen. reporter: the conflict dates back to 2014, when the houthis, supported by iran, captured the capital, demanding a new government. a dear later, a coalition led by saudi arabia and the united arab emirates back to the internationally recognized government and launched a military campaign against the rebels. >> all we want is to be brothers, united with our neighbors. they have their interest and we have ours and we live in peace. we do not want war. war destroys nations. >> we hope that the saudi's and houthis that satisfies the human people first, because people are tired of the situation and of promises and procrastination. reporter: the fighting has taken his soul -- taken its toll.

hundreds of thousands have been killed and millions displ aced in one of humidity's worst crises. 23 million people urgently need assistance. the most vulnerable are the worst affected. health-care workers save millions of children are suffering from acute malnutrition, and that risk of illness, because they have no access to clean water and sanitation. a ta -- attacks on schools have interrupted education. billions of dollars are needed to provide basic services. the war has also come at a cost for the saudis and their allies. houthi drone and missile attacks have targeted oil installations in the kingdom and the united arab emirates. several rounds of peace talks, deadlocked, until the u.n.-led negotiations led to a temporary cease-fire last year. it's hoped that current

discussions, which comes just weeks after saudi arabia and iran agreed to normalize diplomatic relations, will finally bring an end to this long-running conflict. folly: before we begin our discussion, let's take a look at the complicated balance of power in yemen. the presidential leadership council, which was formed the last year, controls most of the south and is backed by saudi arabia. it's the internationally recognized government. the southern forces supported by the uae have a presence in aden and other parts of the south with fighters stationed on an island. two saudi uae coalition is fighting the iranian backed houthis who have controlled the capital sanaa and most of northern yemen since 2014. and al qaeda is active in several areas, with its biggest influence in the northern province. ♪

let's bring in our guests now for today's inside story. iraniann doha is ibrahim fraihat , associate professor in international conflict resolution at the doha institute for graduate studies and author of a ran and saudi arabia, taming the chaotic conflict. in stockholm is afrah nasser, nonresident fellow at the arab center washington, d.c. anaesthetist en committed terry and and human rights issues in yemen. and in washington, d.c., trita parsi, executive vice president for an american think tank and the author of, losing an enemy, obama, iran, and the triumph of diplomacy. thank you all for joining us on "inside story." ibrahim, let me start with the. there have been contacts between the warring sides before, but how significant is this latest rounds of talks in sanaa? are you hopeful there could be a breakthrough to end this conflict?

ibrahim: thank you for having me. this is not the first time there have been talks resume saudi arabia and houthis, but not to this level. this is the first time we are seeing presentations on this level from saudi arabia. so this is new, which is a good signal it has given us. second, this comes one month after the agreement signed between iran and saudi arabia in china with the chinese mediation, which we predicted during that time a month ago on this show after the signing of the agreement that the agreement would lead to tension reduction in the region. because the region has seen several proxy wars supported by iran and saudi arabia, in lebanon, yemen, syria, iraq.

and it would inflict itself on the tension reduction in the region. we have seen already a saudi attempt to invite the syrian regime to the -- folly: yeah, but positive steps, as you say, but do you think you could lead to lasting peace in yemen? ibrahim: we know that this is very likely to lead to tension reduction in the region. but i do not think that we should be overly optimistic that this will solve all yemen problems, because the conflict in yemen has the mystic factors in yemen -- has domestic factors in yemen. it is not all made by iran and saudi arabia. but yes, saudi arabia's involvement in the proxy wars we

have seen in the past years has exacerbated the factors in yemen. the other yemeni political partners are excluded from the political process. folly: ibrahim, sorry to interrupt you, we will talk about the other actors in a little while, and the complicated aspect of that as well. but let me come to trita and ask you your thoughts. ibrahim says let's not be overoptimistic. what are your thoughts? do you think we are on the verge of a breakthrough in this conflict? trita: i certainly hope that we are on the verge of a breakthrough but i think caution is very much warranted. at the end of the day the yemeni conflict originally was an internal civil war. unfortunately, both iran, saudi arabia and the uae exacerbated

the situation, poured more weapons into the conflict, made it much bloodier. the blockade has killed a majority of the people in the last year. and it has made it worse. if the iranians and the saudis, if they no longer compete with each other in yemen through that civil war, and at a minimum that element will be gone. but it will not automatically resolve the conflict in and of itself. tensions will remain but it will make it easier to resolve it. one other fact that is important to observe here, most civil wars could not drag on for more than a year, unless foreign elements get involved. when foreign elements get involved, pour more weapons and resources into the conflict, that is when civil wars tend to go on for years and years and become more sustainable. so the withdrawal of those resources and weapons from iran, saudi arabia, and the uae, at a minimum will dry up some energy into that war and hopefully

bring it to an end, but it is not an automatic solution. folly: afrah, let me come to you. as a yemeni, how hopeful are you about an eventual end to this conflict? afrah: as a yemeni, i really have mixed feelings. also as a researcher, i see mixe d indications and conflicting indications that this is positive and might be negative at the same time. as a yemeni, i would say that i have been getting so many messages from relatives and family members asking me, is this true, is it true? like, the shakeup fans between the saudi ambassador and the houthi official, is that true or fake news? and the question is when will we see that image of shaking hands between the yemeni officials and

yemeni leaders themselves. eight brutal years of conflict have devastated the lives of millions of civilians in yemen. the u.n. once estimated that the conflict at the best of nearly a quarter of a million people, although many yemen experts believe that number to be ci significantly higher -- to be significantly higher. so people are in disbelief because of the huge scale of death and pain and suffering, not really being able to believe that we are on the road to peace building and peacemaking. so, but as a researcher, i am really, really concerned about having a fragile peace at the expense of lasting and durable peace, which requires more work

than what we are seeing today. folly: all right. afrah, very interesting that you talked about the handshake between the houthi official and the saudi representative. ibrahim, what about the yemenis themselves? and there are other actors involved in this. how do they fit into this process, and can you have a settlement to this conflict without involving all these different actors? ibrahim: no, i don't think so. i don't think we can talk about a serious settlement of this conflict without the involvement of all the parties. and this is when the problem started, actually. when the government in yemen, when the central government in yemen collapsed with the beginning of this war and the houthi coup essentially -- against the central government, the houthi excluded all other partners. so there are some who are still

excluded by the houthis. houthis used power sharing arrangements to solve their other problems. there's also a transitional council in the southern part of yemen, that they are not part of any process that we are seeing today. the current talks we are seeing between saudi arabia and the houthis is between the saudis and the houthis, but that's not including the other parties. even what is called the central government that used to be in power, today it is marginalized. it is not taking an active role in these negotiations. we are seeing saudis and yemeni's meeting in the negotiating. those that were in power before the war started, they are not part of the negotiations. folly: what about the yemeni rowdies?

they were part of the saudi led coalition but there seems to be tensions between the mr rowdies and the saudis, and we know of course they back -- are they on board with this process? ibrahim: they are supporting militia in the south. it is not part of any political talks. they have their own security and territories that are in control of this. so that is another challenge actually. even if it is solved between saudi arabia and the houthis, you still need to talk of the emirates and their luscious, you need to talk -- and their political parties. and you need to all show -- which are all excluded from any talks. let alone al qaeda, that is

against anyone. that is not part of any talks, and represents a security threat. folly: trita, your thoughts about this? you have various actors here which makes peace complicated, especially when also you have divisions within the so-called saudi led coalition. how do you see that evolving, and what do you think the calculus is in riyadh and tehran right now? what is motivating this reconciliation between riyadh and tehran, and saudi arabia's desire to end this involvement in yemen? trita: on the first question of the reconciliation, again, it is really important to recognize that this is unfortunately not the end of the conflict. hopefully it will be the end of the armed conflict, the one that is fueled by saudi arabia and iran. but it's not an end to the conflict itself.

it will be a bumpy road to get to reconciliation. but this is the first necessary step to start this process. in regards to iran and saudi arabia, from the saudi perspective it is quite clear. saudi arabia recognizes that this was a huge mistake. they cannot win this. they have fought the houthis and iranians and only made saudi security worse. the crown prince needs to reconcile with iran, no matter how much he might just likely iranian regime. it is a bold step out to make this shift. from the iranian perspective the saudis have been tremendously problematic, both because of oil policies and also the iranian perception that the iran tv station, a completely saudi funded tv station, is a major force behind the protests in iran that have fueled instability in their view. as a result the saudis and

iranians proved to each other they can really hurt each other. but the value of that pain they can inflict on the other side is now essentially diminished, and as a result they have opted to turn this direction and make peace and reconcile. i want to also emphasize, even though iraqis played a crucial role and laid the groundwork, i think the chinese were instrumental to get this deal. because of the fact that neither the saudis nor the iranians trust the other side, and the iraqis could not provide a mechanism that would guarantee the behavior and adherence to any agreement. folly: worthy chinese directly involved in his yemen process? trita: i am not talking about yemen, i am talking about the reconciliation between the iranians and the saudis. china could ensure, or at least provide some sort of assurance

that they both would adhere to the agreement. and that agreement, as has been said on this show, seems to have been instrumental in order to get this extension of the truce we are seeing in yemen right now. folly: all right. let me come to you now, afrah nasser. as we said, it is a very calm look at it process, given the factors. looking at some of the demands the houthis have made, for foreign forces to leave yemen, salaries be paid and so on. talk to us about the daily hardships yemenis are experiencing right now, and what an end to the conflict would mean in the immediate for them. are there signs already on the ground that things are getting better? afrah: so, under the eight brutal years of conflict, there has been a wide range of human rights violations, violation of international humanitarian law, the unlawful indiscriminate and

disproportionate attacks on civilians, and civilian infrastructures. which really resulted in deepening the humanitarian crisis on the ground, where, wiht no -- with no exaggeration, every household in yemen is struggling economically because of the consequences of the conflict, and the abuses by the warring parties. but i think it is very important to say here that in yemen today, there are so many warring parties. not only the saudi led coalition and the houthi armed group. so the question is, when will we see peace talks between the other warring parties? at this stage, it's so important to call on the houthi armed group and the saudi arabia, and the uae, by the way, to ensure

reparations for civilian harm in yemen that happened during their fighting. folly: reparation and accountability, i imagine. afrah: exactly. just because they are shaking hands today does not mean that there are millions of civilians that paid the price for the conflict. so i truly believe this is the top priority at this moment in the road forward, that millions of civilians in yemen are calling for. and when we come to the next stages when the other warring parties make peace, we will continue to call for reparation, accountability, and justice. just a last point, it is important not to repeat the same mistake of what happened right after the yemen uprising in 2011

when there was no transitional justice whatsoever. so now transitioning yemen from war to so-called lasting peace without justice will just eventually trigger other conflicts. folly: yes, i was going to ask you, one phrase that we have heard recently a lot is that yemenis must work out a peace deal themselves. are the conditions on the ground right for that to happen, and how do we make that happen, given that even before 2011 there were tensions already, there was a war and so on? how do yemenis work out a peace deal themselves? afrah: absolutely. it should be a yemeni decision by yemenis themselves. but the question now, where is the yemeni government in these talks between the houthis and saudi arabia? they seem to be not present, they were not part of the

liberation. so this is a failure to the concept that they should be a yemeni decision. and this is an indication why this is not going to be a lasting peace. folly: ibrahim, let me come to you about that. it does look like the houthis are in a stronger position today. it seems like the saudis are coming around more to the houthi 's demands than vice versa. ibrahim: yeah, i think the houthis will be emboldened with these peace talks, especially if it is successful. because i think what the houthis have to give back to saudi arabia is security. but for that, the houthis will be in charge, because we are not discussing power arrangements if the war stops and after lifting the blockade.

the houthis will be ordered to powershare, it does not seem like it. there are no indications to suggest power-sharing arrangements are possible. also the houthis could hold this long, and they had all these years of fighting. not that they are just going to give it to their rivals. if the war ends in saudi arabia, they are going to sustain and reinforce their monopoly of power in sanaa, and other parts of yemen know they are in control of. folly: are you saying that we are not likely to see a centralized power-sharing government in sanaa between the houthis and the government? ibrahim: if these peace talks succeed in reaching an agreement between the houthis and the saudi's, then pace in yemen

becomes even more difficult. if this agreement excludes all other yemeni parties, especially who were in power in the transitional process before the war started, and those who have part of the political process and the national dialogue process that started in 2011 after the yemeni revolutions. it seems these parties are excluded. the yemeni government does not have a seat at the table. the other political parties do not have a seat in these negotiations. or if this agreement is reached, excluding, it will be left between the houthis, who are the most powerful, and the other political parties who are much less powerful than the houthis, then there's no incentive left for the houthis to engage in national dialogue and power-sharing in the post agreement, if the agreement is reached. folly: trita, where are the

americans in all of this? they have provided support to the saudi led coalition, providing arms in the beginning of the war even if president biden, it seems, somewhat tried to withdraw some back into the saudi war effort. where does this leave washington, and can the u.s. still play a role in bringing the war in yemen to an end? trita: first of all, the u.s. -- the president's promise was a rather hollow one. it promised to end the war in february 2021. it seems the chinese may have played a bigger role in and in the war than the u.s. the u.s. support has been to support the saudis rather than support a peace process. their arguments -- there are arguments on the west side that the u.s. has been putting pressure on saudi arabia behind the scenes. that might be true, but we have

come to a realization in the region that when you want to end conflict and peacemaking, the natural address for such an effort is no longer washington, it may be elsewhere. folly: interesting, indeed, these changing dynamics in the region. afrah, let me come to you and ask you a final question. as a yemeni of course, you have researched human rights situation in the country, the humanitarian situation as well. but what are your hopes for your country, and what would a final settlement -- what would you like a final settlement to look like, to bring about peace to yemen? afrah: look, last year at this time i was on "inside story" talking about three horrific attacks on civilians in sanaa. by the saudi-led coalition.

detainees, they attacked, they were gunned down by the houthi forces there. this is just to tell you that we have come a long way. yemen has been tortured by this conflict. but as a yemeni, i really hope to end this conflict once and for all and not to repeat them again. and that would require a lot of work and addressing the hard topics, justice concerns, so we do not end up in another circle of this vicious cycle of violence in yemen. folly: afrah, thank you very much for that. afrah nasser, ibrahim fraihat, trita parsi, thank you all very much for joining us on this edition of "inside story." and thank you for watching. you can always watch us any time by visiting aljazeera.com.

for further discussion go to our facebook age, facebook.com/ajins idestory. and you can join us on twitter at ajinsidestory. thank you for watching. bye for now. ♪

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