plunged the sudan into turmoil. the country is rich in natural resources. these factors might be linked to the conflict. this is inside story. tom: welcome to the program. sudan's people are once again

living in fear, suffering the consequences of all-out conflict between the army and a rival paramilitary force. the cause is multipronged. sudan has a troubled history. its diverse population is composed of different ethnicities and societal groups. and it is rich in natural resources. we will be speaking to our panel of guests about how these factors could be influencing fighting and sudan's future. reporter: two weeks of waking up to the sound of airstrikes and gunfire. the battle has been in the making for a long time. a political power struggle rooted in ethnic divisions, further complicated over the fight for control over natural resources. at the center of the conflict are two generals, the head of the army and the commander of the rapid support forces. >> both the men are known fairly

well. this is not a conflict that just broke out. reporter: sudan has more than 500 ethnic groups. politics has been long dominated by an elite based around khartoum. she is from a non-arab tribe. both sides have tens of thousands of fighters and vast resources at their disposal. the army controls most of the economy but the parliament t group overseas gold-mining.

it is the third largest producer of the precious metal. in 2021 about 90 tons of gold came from the sudan. it also has deposits of copper, iron and uranium, as well as abundant arable land. the sudan is located on the nile river. water as it with other countries and a another five countries, nearly all of which are in conflict. the united nations classifies sudan as a low income country. if this violence continues it can spill over and affect regional access to water and oil supplies. and then there is the unfolding humanitarian crisis.

the fighting has killed hundreds of people and injured thousands. there is a shortage of food, fuel and hospitals are out of service. many countries have evacuated their citizens and tens of thousands of people have fled. tom: joining me now are our guests. in montreal, khalid medani, associate professor of political science and islamic studies and chairman of the african studies programme at mcgill university. in cairo, raga makawi, editor of africa arguments and author of sudan's unfinished democracy. here, we have waleed madibo, founder and president of sudan policy forum. thank you very much for joining us. you have just arrived in egypt

after fleeing sudan. give us a brief description of how difficult the journey was. >> it is very, very difficult. the reality is that the people living in khartoum have been under threats of conflict and bombardment for the last 15 days that -- or so. you have thousands of people taken the same roots toward the same crossing points. the situation at the border is very kind of difficult and protected -- protracted.

it is not a acumen crossing point, it is a cargo one. it is not set up to receive thousands of people every day. you have situations where people have been squatting for weeks now. it took me a week to get through, with almost no access to any basic services. there was no food and water. there are no bathrooms. the security situation is quite dire. the state itself, access to information in order to give you updates is not at the level that

is required to help people move on in a straightforward manner. tom: it is hard to imagine the difficulties you and the tens of thousands of sudanese had to go through. we are extremely grateful thank you and your family are safe at this point in time. khalid, i want to talk to you about ethnic divisions in sudan. is this simply a war between two generals by think for power -- vying for power or are there people you -- deeper ethnic divisions? >> it is not so much ethnic, but political competition between these two generals. i think the notion that this is an ethnic conflict is something that is often times not correct.

there is no correlation between the density of the number of ethnic groups and conflict. as easy as it is to say, to reduce this conflict to interethnic conflict, it is not the case. i would suggest that historically, the issue in sudan is an imbalance between the center and the periphery. that gives us a much more understanding about the present conflict and also the decades under the rule of al-bashir, in which the primary investment of the country went to the military. the remaining went into limited geographical triangle around khartoum.

and that had to do with the concentration of power that dates back to the colonial era. understanding it that way can help you understand the conflict between the national army and the paramilitary. in addition to that lens of looking at it, it helps us to understand the issue in eastern sudan. and what we call the two areas. understanding it as a long history of imbalance, both in terms of representation in terms

of those in the margins but also the absence of economic investment is really important. we also have to understand demographic change. khartoum itself houses about seven or 8 million and it is extremely diverse. it encompasses all of the different ethnic groups. in other words, the battle between these two generals is not hitting one or two specific ethnic groups. i think that is important to emphasize. tom: what do you make of his points? >> i think it is well set and well put. i need to add some important points. there are three levels to the

conflict. there is the issue between the generals, the person mentally issue. -- personality issue. he was used by al-bashir as a paramilitary first that they could use any time there was a coup d'etat in khartoum. the second level is the dynamics between the rsf and the islamist groups. the islamist groups started getting rid of the professional officers. gradually, they moved all of the

defense duties to the intelligence department. when the civil war erupted in darfur, they used the office. the third level, we have to remember very well that the social basis from which the general has been recruiting his forces are areas of darfur, may lead the air rep tribes. -- mainly the arab tribes. ironically, these are the areas that are mostly rich in sudan. if you think about what the professor has just said, i can just add to it, in order to grow

agriculture in the sahara desert of northern sudan, you need $4000, compared to only $134 in darfur. so we need to think about marginalization, about center periphery dynamics, but we cannot ignore that there is a historical connotation between the people of western sudan and the people love center here, the people who have dominated the politics for almost 70 years. tom: the doctors union has set at least 74 people have been killed in west darfur and locals are beginning to arm themselves, believing the conflict will reignite. how alarming is that?

is that going to happen? >> i think it is quite alarming. darfur has had a long history of conflict, whose path has been shaped by the politics in the center. the center periphery framework. i think it is also very important to look behind the idea of ethnicity has just a racial marker. in sudan, ethnicity is a political construct that has been concocted by the state with the purpose of consolidating its power. the central state that is quite weak, whose reach is very limited, have used certain ethnic groups in certain parts

of the country to try to manage and consolidate power. tom: is the worry now that both the army and the rapid support forces are going to recruit different ethnic minorities to fight one another on their behalf? could that happen? >> i think that injection of interethnic hatred and even racism on the part of al-bashir to put down the pro-democracy forces and the revolution.

that was when the slogan when all from dow for a emerged as a popular one. in khartoum itself, there was a clear recognition that this is a political competition between two generals representing their own interest and there are interests of a small group of allies. i know the number is large, and this is what we need by mercenaries. this is recruited as a result of money being paid. the sudanese people understand that this is not one of interethnic conflict. they are fully aware. you see that in khartoum. i do not think it will work.

that does not mean the violence will diminish. these are very strong forces. in terms of how ethnicity plays out in sudan, i visited darfur many times, even during the war. the notion of arabs versus africans and are for -- darfur, from our experience, it is other marketers, in addition to that, issues of economic livelihoods. i can tell you a number of difft en ias there in terms of the relationships between the different ethnic groups that identify based on their linguistic markers.

it is important because that is the only way we can understand issues of conflict resolution. tom: i want to move on to sudan 's natural resources. there is gold, farmland, oil. obviously, there is huge for an interest in sudan and there has been for many years. how is that impact in this current conflict? >> before answering that question, i would want to highlight something very quickly. if we look at the conflict through anthropological perspectives, what the professor has said is right. but if we look at it from the political perspective, the government has politicized

ethnicity. we find 2.5 one million from a strictly indigenous african population. so here is where the conflict takes some sort of an ethnic tilt. to go back to your question, which is very important, they are doing explorations in southern darfur. they have a very big plot of land from which they are exploring gold and embezzling it to the uae or russia. that represents almost 77% of sudan's export of gold. if we look at the issue of gold, it is a very sensitive issue. you do have uranium.

what makes the conflict dirty is the fact that the resources are in the areas that are mostly conflict ethnic wise. it has made it difficult to separate the issue of ethnicity from the issue of resources. the islamists subdivided, so

they had played a very devilish role in separating the ethnicities in darfur. and linking it to the issue of resources. tom: obviously, egypt has a huge stake in what happens in sudan. what is its interest there at this point in time? where does the president's allegiance lie? >> sudan used to be part of egypt until independence and i think the ties are not just historically social. communities are intertwined through marriage and work. but also the political systems

are built to a large degree upon the historical institutions that they had inherited from its time under the protection of egypt. this has translated into the more recent period of the relationship between the two military leaders. egypt relies to a large degree on securing its southern border and sudan's military needs as well. tom: who is backing who here and

why do you think? how much influence do they have over both of those sites? >> is very well known that egypt is backing the general. obviously egypt is supposed to islamist movements in the region, nevertheless this is a marriage of convenience. egypt wants fat for strategic and economic reasons. the relationship is not a good

calculation. that somehow they could have a complete influence over him without having to deal with islamists with the national congress party, many of whom have been released from prison over the last three days. i think egypt is finding itself in a difficult situation in that respect. they have interest in the gold trade. i do think calculations have changed. the end of the war in yemen. instability is something that the uae and saudi arabia is

concerned about for a variety of reasons, including their interest in the red sea area. and that is why they entered into negotiations. that is really important. the issue in russia is over sensationalize. i do not believe russia has much influence. i think the relationship between gold is important. i do not think it is most important. there is a wealth of other resources and that is really important. there are changes in the strategic calculations. with the expansion of the conflict in the way it is frightening strategic interests, all of these actors will lead them to actually try to do what they can to stabilize the

situation, at least in terms of cessation of hostilities. tom: we are rapidly running out of time. i want to finish with you. how does this conflict end? how soon do you think you will be able to return to sudan? >> i am hoping so. my family, their lives are in sudan, their houses, that is where the children go to school. we are connected to sudan in many ways. we travel more than once yearly. i am hoping the conflict eases because there is no conducive alternative.

how are people of my parents generation supposed to exit the country in their 70's? how are they supposed to resettle? all of these issues raise concerns about people being able to make safe passage back to their homes and their lives. tom: we are going to have to leave it there. thank you very much for joining us, all three of you. thank you very much for joining us on inside story. you can see the program again by visiting our website. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on twitter. for me, tom mcrae, and the whole

team here, goodbye for now.

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