bloody war, what are the risks of a spillover into ethiopia? this is inside story. imran: hello and welcome to the program. i am imran khan.

for decades, sudan and ethiopia enjoyed strong economic and political ties. but recent developments have strained relations between the neighbours. a border dispute over land claimed by both countries threatened a potential conflict last year. ethiopia's multibillion-dollar hydroelectric dam on the blue nile has been a source of tension for years. now, with widespread conflict across sudan, and refugees crossing the border into ethiopia, some are questioning if new alliances will be formed. we will look into that shortly. but first, this report. reporter: the unrest in sudan could have wider political implications and ethiopia as fighting escalates. regional ties could shift. when ethiopia's prime sin mr. -- prime minister met sudan's general in january, problems were brewing in khartoum.

the prime minister said he would not intervene. >> my message is to prioritize sudan, to prioritize the people of sudan and to draw your own solution for your problem. as you know, during that time of turmoil and chris's, compromises must be reached. reporter: since then the unrest has unraveled between the army and paramilitary rapid support forces. some analysts believe this conflict could get an advantage to ethiopia on several issues. among them is about border region, contested region claimed by both nations. there is ethiopians dam on the blue nile river.

khartoum worries the dam will reduce the amount of water it receives from the nile river. the controversy has led to alliances. sudan has partnered with egypt. after weeks of violence, many question if new ties will develop to garner political leverage. both sudan and ethiopia have seen conflict in recent years. sudan has hosted 50,000 refugees who fled the fighting in ethiopia between government forces and tigray rebels. but now, it is sudan that is again seeing waves of people leave at the power struggle further threatens its security and political future. imran: let's bring in our best. aicha el basri, researcher at the arab center for research and

policy studies and the former spokesperson for the african union. in virginia, etana dinka, assistant professor at james madison university, focusing on the political history of ethiopia and africa. a warm welcome to each of you. this is going to put ethiopia in a difficult position. it was not that long ago that there was going to be movement on the issues between the two countries, between ethiopia and sudan, particularly when it came to the border dispute, but that has now gone out the window. where does ethiopia landed on this? >> to answer the question, we have to put the situation in context, in international and

regional context. the ongoing war between the sudan armed forces and the rapid support forces has been basically managed by the united states. the crisis is being hardly managed by washington, which is trying to pull the parties to the conflict back to the negotiation table. the washington insists it is going to compete with china and russia and batson today and is a strategic point that we cannot afford to lose and it has many other interests, economic, but also linked to the war in ukraine and the factor in sudan.

for all these reasons, washington is committed to finding a way to the negotiating table and going back to the political framework agreement that has been adopted by most of the parties. ethiopia, which is pro-u.s. government, has to take into consideration this leadership. the second factor is the regional context. it is favorable to the situation in sudan, but also helping the situation between ethiopia and sudan and to remain on a peaceful track. you have noticed that the information context has been marred by a tendency to go to

negotiate the problems and settled the disputes. whether it is in libya or chad, the situation on that border has gone down and washington is committed to keep that political sentiment ongoing. on the other side, you have also the situation with our countries, especially with egypt and ethiopia. here we have an issue. we have lands and borders. ethiopia, i think the situation has advanced quite well and they have reached a settlement that has been confirmed by the visit of the prime minister to khartoum in january of this year.

imran: thanks in khartoum were going well and now we are in the situation we are in right now. where does ethiopia land on this ? does it have a dog in the fight? >> the position where it deal be a is located it depends on its domestic issues. one important issue that bring sudan and ethiopia together is an disputes -- an disputes -- an disputes. it was not clear, but later in

relation to the news that appeared weeks after the visit, the prime minister of ethiopia asked him to take over. that might've happened because the prime minister wanted to signal to all sides including on the side of sudan. but now with the war integrate coming to a conclusion, people might think the conflict in ethiopia is over and the problem is only in sudan but that is not the case. it is a changing dynamic. it makes the relation between the two countries complex.

a large number of soldiers [indiscernible] a senior political leader was going down -- gunned down. addis ababa is in a fight with regional forces. i do not believe addis ababa wants to fight with sudan on this issue, although it might

retake the agricultural land. imran: but that accelerates the war if they take over the land. they seize this opportunity that sudan is in chaos. it kisses goodbye to any ethiopian mediation and it will prompt a prolonging of this war. is there a of this happening? >> unfortunately, there is always the potential for some incidents to go out of control. this is a possibility that one cannot rule out, but what counts here is that the central governments seems committed to helping sudan move forward from this war. it has a vested interest in helping sudan to sort out the conflict instead of adding to

the situation another conflict. as you said, the agreements that have been reached between the deal being government and the tigray liberation front seems to be going quite well. so they have every interest in keeping the peaceful environment. he is trying his best to control the factions on the border and other factions. that is what counts right now. he made clear statements to sudan that he is willing to help and he is pushing for an african solution to african problems. he has offered his mediation and that is a sign that so far he is

in control. that said, the situation can deteriorate if some groups decide to sabotage the situation. imran: we are talking about mediation now. ethiopia could be a key player, perhaps much more than washington or the uae. it shares a culture, a border, the nile river, so it could be and it has been in the past. but it also feels like ethiopia does not have any leverage right now. that is the key thing that you need. does it have any leverage? >> ethiopia may have some leverage in this regard, but

again, i return to regional issues that confronted ethiopia and sudan during the past few years during the tigray war. as we know, thousands of refugees made it to sudan and addis ababa complained multiple times that sudan might have been helping the left wing during the

war. and now there is the issue of eritrea. there are differences between the civilian political actors and army as well as rsf. khartoum declined the invitation, the interest. then he invited the rsf commander. the details of what they talked about, the issues in sudan, has not yet clear, but it seems like

he is behind the position. i am raising this issue for a reason. sudan has a very long border with ethiopia. so western sudan and western tigray is still under the control of eritrea. eritrea has leverage. in relation to addis ababa and khartoum, the leverage of addis ababa is not very strong. the only leverage it has it it has ended the war in the north. in this regard, they may have

some ability to bring together the two forces with the support of international forces like the united states. in the negotiation between the to grade -- tigray liberation front, the united states was a key player. imran: you make a very important point. when it comes to leverage, ethiopia does not have a huge amount. what does ethiopia need to become the key player once again as they has been in the past? what does it need to do? >> let me go back to eritrea. because it is connected. first of all, the mediation, the issue of mediation has been

decided, i think it has been determined that the mediation will take form under the framework of the united states and saudi arabia. this has been confirmed from official sources in sudan. that leaves us with why eritrea and ethiopia do not seem to have the leverage. none of them actually. eritrea has shown some inclination to commit to rapid support forces. also, eritrea has shown inclination towards russia. let's not forget there has been

some talk that eritrea might be afraid of the naval base on the red sea, which is a redline for washington. imran: our third guest that we wanted to bring you earlier, a political commentator who was in the middle of trying to vet qa -- trying to evacuate her family from sudan. godspeed to you. just as are the situation -- please describe the situation your scene in front of you right now. >> i am trying to utilize any old roots i can take, whether it is the saudi operated fairies,

but it is proving difficult because we need a visa. it has proven to be problematic because of the large number of people trying to apply. right now, i am at the airport trying to see if i can get my immediate family on one of those flights. imran: thank you for joining us from such a troublesome situation. i wish you luck with it. we're talking about ethiopia and its potential leverage. both of our guests have suggested there is not a huge amount of leverage that ethiopia has over the situation in sudan. would you agree with that? >> i think every invested party has leverage over both the

airsoft and the army, but the issue is is it in the interest of the sudanese people? we do need this pressure, this arm-twisting that will come from the invested players. let's say ethiopia plays a part in people say no because egypt and the army see i 2-iron they need to get the egyptians involved -- ci 2-iron and they need to get the egyptians involved. they need to apply proper pressure on the army. imran: do you think ethiopia's

role in particular is useful right now? it has been in the past? where do you think it deal be us usefulness comes in -- ethiopia's usefulness comes in? >> ethiopia and sudan are very much intertwined in terms of history. in the best interest of all countries in the surrounding areas, it is in everyone's best interest that this conflict comes to an end. when it comes to politics, there is no clear cut, i cannot tell

you this is the right way. at this moment in time, we need to bring more pressure, we need to push more, especially international players. they need to really push both sides to have an influence. it will be welcomed. it cannot continue like this. the humanitarian crisis be tenfold and it will spill over and nobody wants that. imran: you can hear the panic, trying to get her family out. often times we forget about the human side of this when we are

talking about potential negotiations are leverage, but here you have somebody who was a crucial political commentator within the country telling us this needs to come to an end now. but these talks are not happening right now. >> the fact that both parties have agreed to discuss the issue is a good sign. the other issue is ethiopia's leverage. they have two points against it. first of all, i think it lacks credibility when it comes to african solutions for african problems. it chose to settle the conflict with tigray with military, so what kind of message would he

sent into the world when he himself chose to fight the opponents? imran: we are running out of time. the talks are going to happen, both sides agreed to that. the timing needs to be negotiated. are you hopeful these talks will bring conflict to an end quickly? >> i hope so, the hope should be related to what is going on on the ground. during the tigray war, russia and china were consistently

standing behind their position. the african union was empowered because china repeatedly proposed that this was ethiopia's international issue. imran: we are running out of time. you have heard what our guests have said. do you think any kind of negotiation will help you and bring the situation to an end? >> it depends on the outside parties. is it in their best interest to bring it to an end?

how do we appease both sides because neither of these two guys want to lose. so how do you appease both sides and make sure it is for the best for the country and its people? and that is the conundrum. it is a very hard equation. it has now reached the point where who's going to emerge victorious? imran: i want to thank you for running us under such extreme circumstances. i want to thank you as well for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. you can also join the conversation on twitter. from me and the entire team

here, goodbye for now.