city? >> "witness," on al jazeera. imran: chad hosts hundreds of thousands of refugees from sudan, and more have been pouring in since the latest fighting began last month. but what does the war in sudan mean for chad, and how much of a threat is it to its security? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. i am imran khan. the fighting incident between its army and the paramilitary rapid support forces has largely

continued despite a ceasefire so . so far, the crisis has forced more than 20,000 people to flee to neighboring chad, but the impact of the crisis goes beyond immediate displacement of sudan's people. analysts warn the unrest could pose a threat to the stability of neighboring countries, and the region as a whole. we will get to our guests in the moment, but first, this report. reporter: sedans neighbors are -- sudan's neighbors are watching with great concern as to how the conflict is unfolding. for regional powers, it's more about minimizing the impact of the crisis. the u.n. warns moore 800,000 people may flee, as sudan's army and paramilitary rapid support forces battle each other, despite a faltering cease-fire. at least 100,000 sudanese are expected to see leveraging chad alone, which already hosts more than half a million refugees from sudan. >> without a quick resolution of

this crisis, we will continue to see more people forced to flee in search of safety and basic assistance. we are taking a coordinated contingency planning for new arrivals, returning refugees and others, including third-country nationals, all countries in the region. reporter: sudan borders a staggering seven countries, including libya, egypt and chad, a region that's seen its share of conflict in recent years. and analysts warn the conflict may attract more weapons and fighters. sudan's western door for region is closely linked with neighboring chad. any instability there can quickly spread across the border. from chad, that means fighters friendly to the head of the rsf, mohammed hampden, known as hem

ati, could come to his aid. chad is a u.s. ally and some say it has concerns about the presence of russia's partner mercenary group in neighbouring central african republic and the potential to back chadian rebels threatening its government. the wagner group has been accused of having close ties with the rapid support forces, but the mercenary group denies involvement in the country. if a long fight incident could have a wider implications for the sahel. where foreign powers like china and france have had it dozens for years. sudan's stability is important, given its strategic location, and has drawn attention of major powers from both the east and the west. but the continued unrest poses a significant threat, and it could lead to further uncertainty for the region. ♪ imran: let's bring in our guests. in n'djamena, remadji hoinathy, senior researcher covering chad

and africa's great lakes region for the institute for security studies. and abdelkhalig shaib, a sudanese lawyer, political analyst and a member of the arab association of constitutional law. in addis ababa solomon dersso, , founding director of amani africa, a pan-african think-tank that focusses on peace and security policy in africa. a warm welcome to you all. i'd like to begin with remadji. there are 20,000 refugees in chad already from neighboring sudan. that number is rising every single day. is this threatening the stability of chad? guest: thank you. i think no. firstly it is not about the refugees threatening the stability of chad, but what are these refugees bring ink? the situation is unfolding so it might be that this number may rise again. what they are bringing is more stress on the international humanitarian system, also, the

international humanitarian aid organizations, mainly the u.n., that are taking care of refugees here in the country. after the conflict in sudan, the system was already under stress because the world food programme, one of the main humanitarian organizations, publicly communicated on the fact that they were in shortage of meals, funding to take care of the refugees that were already in the country. so this huge number from sudan in the last weeks might be adding stress on a system that is already facing a lot of challenges. imran: let's bring in abdelkhalig, joining us from manama. where is the sudanese government here, where is the rapid support forces when it comes to relations with chad? do they have good relations with chad? guest: i think they have a good

relationship with chad. but you have to look at it from another perspective, which is basically, some of the personnel fighting in the rsf are coming from chad. there are tribal attacks on both borders. there are familial relationships and interracial and marriage relationships between the two. it has been the case that people fleeing east door-for-for -- east darfur for 20 years now, they witnessed some stability when the agreement was signed. now people are thinking they need to flee to chad, mainly those who are in east do. the rss have troops there, and

the aricept army as well. it is a historical relationship. but i agree with your guest, that the number will be increasing. people are seeking different ways to leave sudan, whether from chad, through south sudan, through egypt, or through ethiopia. imran: let's bring in solomon. there are 70 countries that neighbor sudan. all those are facing a refugee crisis of sorts as people try to get out. is there a way that these countries can come together and try to sort this out as a unified bloc or are there too many divisions? and in particular, what is chad's role here? guest: indeed the situation in sudan is very direct. if as many people fear, the conflict continues and becomes protracted, there is a danger that sudan would be fragmented.

and a fragmented student that is in conflict, would also inevitably spill over insecurity into neighboring countries. it is important to recall that the relationship between sudan and chad historically, is one where, for rebel groups operating from chad have been successful in launching a campaign against khartoum in previous years. and some of them came closer to khartoum in previous years. it is the result of the rapprochement between khartoum and njamena that actually enabled the base of the rebel groups in chad that turned

the page in terms of sudan's squeezing the rebel groups. and we have to also recall their fragility and the existence of armed groups operating in the north of chad as well. they may be also to take advantage of the situation for their own purpose. so the fragility and fragmentation of sudan would be very disastrous. indeed, if the stability and whatever remaining fragile stability, that needs to continue both in the sahel region, in the horn of africa region, is going to continue, it is imperative that these countries come together, leaving their differences, and arrest this situation so that they can

avoid the wars that would come. imran: abdelkhalig, our guest in addis ababa said he is worried about a fragmented sudan. do you think that is a realistic fear? guest: so far,, if you look at what happened in libya and syria , the countries that had the arab spring, in our, the revolution started peacefully. we had an uprising in sudan that started peacefully in 2018, it continued until april of 2019. it resulted in an agreement, a caricature of a political agreement that divided power between the civilians and military. so, we had some sort of stability before the coup in october of 2021. basically have equal force, the rapid support forces which is completely outside of the disposition and oversight -- supervision and oversight of the

sudanese defense forces. people think this can still be contained. people think the transition has to continue. people still think that war is not going to bring any peace or stability for sudan. but again,, the position taken by the sudanese armed forces is that there is going to be negotiation right now with the rsf. at least with the deputy, his brother. so the fear is there that a fragmented sudan will make it worse for everyone in the region, for the horn of africa, for neighboring countries like ethiopia or chad, but no one has an interest for this to happen. not the international community at large, who have invested too much on having a political agreement or framework agreement

. it is still a possibility. for now who is fighting, it is basically the and miscellaneous armed forces -- the rsf and the sudanese armed forces. until now, it is remote, but we can see we can see who is fighting and who is controlling these weapons. but then the risk is there that there is no "oppression for these troops to leave khartoum. the risk is high. and then excitedly we're are in a position where sudan is another media for another syria for years to come. no one has any interest to see that. imran: solomon, chad is a u.s. ally. u.s. has a number of allies surrounding sudan or its

relationship -- although its relationship with sudan has been strained over many years. you sudan has a diplomatic or political role to play in the resolution of the conflict? guest: chad can contribute indeed for the revolution of this -- the resolution of this crisis. every neighboring country, i would say, of sudan, has a stake, but also, a positive role to play for the resolution of this conflict by using any influence that they may have on both sides of the conflict, the conflicting parties, the sudanese armed forces and the rapid support forces. but i think it is also important to remember that chad is also itself going through a transition. not dissimilar to that of sudan.

it is similar to saddam in the sense that in chad, we also have a military government that is leading a transition process. although it has not been sanctioned in the way that sudan was sanctioned by the african union, but the conditions are similar. in there are contestations within sudan as well. so there is a limit to what child can do. but within those limits, it is important to bring in, because if you don't bring in other neighboring countries, the risk is that their exclusion would leave a vacuum that will easily be exploited to undermine the diplomatic effort to bring peace and s sees the fighting in

khartoum. imran: remadji, is there a limited role that child can play because of this transition that our guest in addis ababa was talking about? guest: sorry for the connection. but as my colleague just said, chad can play a role. that recall the fact that just before the fighting incident, chad received two visits, first from al-burhan himself, and the day after, from hemedti. chad could play a role in what is happening in the country. i totally agree on the fact that chad at the moment is also managing the transition with a little internal contestations, and a position that is somehow fragile, but also is facing security perils inside.

in that way, chad, as several african republics, all the countries surrounding sudan, needs to be implicated in finding solutions to the actual crisis. imran: abdelkhalig, here we are, and of the situation where you have a country almost on the brink of civil war guest: sudan fighting with each other -- you have the paramilitary forces, the government, no one is talking about peace right now. but all the regional countries, including chad, are wondering what that means for them. there are two power players in sudan saying to the world that this is an internal conflict right now -- they are not interested in talking. so what does the international community do? what does a country like chad, with 20,000 refugees arriving at its border, more coming

everyday, what can a country like chad do? guest: i think it's a bit unrealistic to suggest that the country can play a role. it should be a very limited role, and the scope of the role, the boundaries it can move in, the margin is very slim for child to play a role. you have the saudis, the americans, the emirates, and the u.k. as part of the mechanism, then you have the trilateral mechanism, the african union and others. so you have had mechanics in place in khartoum that in the way or another, failed to stop the conflict. but again,, there are initiatives between the saudis and the americans to suggest a cease fire and for that cease fire to be permanent. they are extending the truce for

allowing guaranteed, secure safe routes, for allowing humanitarian aid to come to khartoum, but it is not like a one country that can do anything. it has to be a community, the international community. the mechanics that we have in place and use them to suggest some changes. the other thing is what you mentioned about internal -- there is no internal contention between the rsf and the sudanese armed forces to negotiate. i don't think this is entirely accurate. the rsf are begging unofficially to the international community to find a way for them to negotiate because they don't want to lose what they have achieved in the past four years. the -- are taking a very --

position. they are reluctant. they think -- the paramilitary right now think they have to resolve everything and for the aricept to move out of khartoum and their troops from the areas they are controlling. so it will take time. the shape and the form, everyone is focusing on a cease fire, that they can make it permanent, that they can make safe routes for humanitarian aid to flow to khartoum. this is the focus. political parties, they made it clear from the beginning, the military, that they are against the war, and the solution has to be a political solution, and for the transition entity. imran: solomon, one second, we are facing a situation where the international community is

getting involved, the various different mechanisms for talks coming on, but until it is an african solution for african problems, we are going to see this again. isn't this an opportunity for the nations surrounding sudan to come together and talk to sudan and bring an internal solution, let's not rely on the u.s. anymore or the u.k. anymore, surely this is the opportunity. guest: well, it is one thing to have that kind of ambition of being able to exercise responsibility and leadership and bring the two sides to the peace table, as it were. that is what the african union have been trying to do. if you recall, a day after the outbreak of this fighting, on the 16th of april, the security

council of the african union convened an emergency meeting on the same day the intergovernmental authority on development also convened a heads-up state extraordinary meeting, exactly to take leadership, but also to press on the two sides into submitting to a secession of hostilities i . i think there is so much that they can do, in terms of the labor that they have to bear on the two sides. so it is important, therefore, for these countries. since they can't by themselves with whatever they have -- it is not enough to induce the parties to coming to a cessation of hostilities. what is required is to enlist the support and leverage of others within the region, but also beyond the region. that is why the rule of

countries such as those -- that is why the role of countries such as the u.s. becomes so important. it is important to recall that during the transition process, the trilateral mechanism involving the u.n., the african union and egad was at the front of it. the four countries making up the quad were the ones exercising leverage in pushing through some of the peace agreement, the framework agreement that was signed in december. but i think that there were also lessons that needed to be learned. there is so much focus on trying to and gauge the two sides only. not enough attention is being given to the wider sudanese public who are opposed to this bloody war, and who have been a champion of solidarity, but also peace. the voice of the wider sudanese

public needs to be harnessed. there should be a way in planning talks between these two sides to ensure that the sudanese civilian public is also adequately and effectively represented, including the members of the international community who have displayed an incredible level of humanitarian activity. imran: it's a very interesting point, solomon. let's bring in abdelkhalig. you are a lawyer. i remember a few years ago, the sudanese lawyers association in khartoum was a very powerful organization with a civil society voice, the kind of civil society voice that solomon is talking about. has that voice now disappeared? where is the sudanese civil society here when it comes to this conflict? guest: the sudanese lawyers association, when they came up with the initiative to come up with a constitution so to speak,

they came up with the constitution. the part of the drafting. they wanted the constitution to work as a process. because we have never had a constitution in place. we had one in place and nobody respected that constitution, not during the transition, not even after the coup. people thought if you are having a constitution, the institution should be a process. they used the constitution of the sudanese lawyers association, then they push that into a political process, they started workshops relating to peace and security. but when it came to the issues relating to the reintegration of the rsf within the army, the sudanese armed forces made clear that they needed that integration to be as soon as possible, within two years.

the rsf wanted it to be within two years. so the political parties are trying to help, but i don't think it is beyond the civil society to contribute. they are trying to keep people safe and cared for, so that people are able to go to hospitals and get treatment, which is not the case right now. imran: sorry, we are running out of time, and i do want to bring in remadji. we have talked a lot about the refugee crisis, the political and diplomatic role that chad can play, but in the very, very short-term the longer this war goes off -- goes on, there is a danger that the rsf forces could fall back across the border into chad and that could create problems within that region. is this a short-term concern for

you? guest: for sure there is this concern, because what about the issue of that conflict, the rsf losing ground, going back to darfur -- it might change the equilibrium in that zone. the fighting might have an impact. so in the short-term, whatever the issue of that conflict, there might be impact on darfur, and on chad. the character of the forces fighting within the rsf, these are mainly arab tribes. we know that in the past, equilibrium between the different groups in darfur, the different tribes, it has always been very fragile. so any change in the position of the rsf actually might have an

impact in darfur, meaning also in chad as a spillover. imran: i want to thank all of our guests, remadji hoinathy, abdelkhalig shaib, and solomon dersso. and i want to thank you, as well, for watching. you can see the program again, anytime, by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that is facebook.com/ajinside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, imran khan, the whole -- the entire team here, bye for now. ♪ [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its ca

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