imran: sudan's warring generals invited to peace talks, after fighting kills at least 530 people since mid-april. more than 100,000 have escaped their homes. how likely is a new peace initiative to succeed? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. i am imran khan. just over two weeks of fighting have port sudan into a

monitoring crisis. hundreds of people have been killed and thousands injured. many more have been forced from their homes. the conflict is a power struggle between 21-time allies, -- between two one-ti allies, the headme general abdul fattah al brahan, and the leader of the paramilitary rapid support forces, mohammed hamdan digalo. south sudan has brokered the latest truce, inviting both sides to talk. while they lay down their weapons for a week, we will be the peace initiative. but first, this report. reporter: fleeing in the back of an overcrowded truck, sudanese families make the long and difficult journey to safety across the border into egypt. >> we left khartoum on wednesday. it was very difficult. there were 28 of us. the boys don't have visas, but we kept them with us. our suffering is unprecedented. we left in the middle of the fighting, crashes and even artillery. it was very upsetting.

reporter: this is the human cost of the conflict. the united nations says at least 100,000 people have left the neighboring -- -- left for neighboring countries, a number they warn could rise above 800,000. >> people coming from khartoum who are skipping the war and trying to find safety and security right here under very difficult circumstances. some people who have passed through here don't have food, some are sick, and some are very old. [artillery fire] reporter: for more than three weeks, the army and the paramilitary rapid support forces have battled for control accident, with both sides violating ceasefire after ceasefire. countries in the region are hoping this latest truce, brokered by south sudan and due the last seven days, will hold. you and said that if the army chief abdul fattah al-burhan, and rsf leader mohammed hamdan dagalo refused to negotiate, they risk international isolation. aid agencies are scrambling to help, but say there is a shortage of funding and supplies. >> secretary-general dispatched

morgan griffith, the emergency relief coordinator, -- morgan griffith, emergency relief coordinator, to the region to explore how we can bring immediate relief to millions of people's lives have been turned upside down. you and and our partners are doing our best to reboot the humanitarian response in the country, mr. griffith said. and as you will recall, massive looting has displaced most of our supplies. we are urgently exploring ways to distribute additional supplies. reporter: the sudanese health ministry estimates hundreds of people have been killed and thousands injured. and only 16% of khartoum's medical centers are still operating. people are out of food and water, there are frequent power cuts, and more and more families are leaving their homes behind in search of safety across the border. u.n. is warning that if proposed theu.n. is warning that if proposed peace talks don't resolve the conflict. the humanitarian crisis in sudan could spill over and spread across the region.

alex beard, "inside story." ♪ imran: for more, i am joined by our guests. nairobi is nyagoah tut pur, south sudan researcher at human rights watch. she is a former paralegal for south sudan 's ministry of justice and constitutional affairs. in new york bakry eljack , elmedni, a professor of public policy at long island university, brooklyn. he cofounded "front against war," a publication on sudanese politics. and also in nairobi is stella agara, africa governance analyst, who focuses on development security in east africa. a warm welcome to you all. i would like to begin in new york with bakry. we have an extension to the cease fire that has not held for the last six days, that there is a potential for both parties to get around the table and talk over the next seven days. there is this amazing. talk us through what the underlying issues are between

the two sides. guest: good afternoon and thank you for hosting me. let me start by passing my condolences to the firemen, and wishes for a speedy recovery -- my condolences to the fallen, and wishes for a speed recovery to those who are injured. the issues are deep. some of them are structural. go back in 2017 when bashir decided to completely become a dictator, he broke away from his own islamist party and the national congress party and he allowed the rapid support forces to become a quasi-independent army within the state. it mainly created a lot of disagreements and protests from the leaders, the generals in the

sudanese army. some of them had to be asked to resign because they protested allowing an army or militia to be part of the state but not really following any other the procedures. so that is the deepest issue that you could point to, going back to 2017 when bashir the rat forces to be an independent standing army that is not a part of sudan's armed forces. recently, we know that the rapid support forces and general dagalo, he is deeply invested in gold and he is doing a lot of trades. the estimates that he has at this point made somewhere close to 6 million or $7 million. we know that in order for dagalo to continue to flourish, he

needs power and to be protected. he is using the armed forces to get access to these resources. sudanese armed forces are deeply invested in public activities, it is estimated 82% of the sudanese desk sector -- sudanese private sector is controlled by the sudanese armed forces. so there is competition over power. the last straw that broke the camel back was the conversation in december. a framework agreement after long conversation. regardless of how you think of the framework, it brought the issues of control to the front. some of the discussion has been about how do we about creating one army with one leadership, and who has the right to be in charge? the rsf in general dagalo asked to be allowed to have 10 years for his militia, rapid support

forces, to be functioning as an independent under his sole control. the sudanese army rejected that proposal and they were saying it has to be two years and under one leadership. imran: that is a very interesting point. i want to bring in yonyahgoa, joining us from nairobi. south sudan is a key player. it has everybody potentially around the table. but does it have any influence on these two very powerful, very entrenched and very independent organizations? guest: thank you for including me in the conversation, it has been clear over the last many weeks that south sudan and sudan are joined at the hip, socially, politically and economically. the fact that south sudan was appointed as a mediator is a reflection of this relationship. since the crisis broke out in

april, in mid april, over 30,000 people, some of whom are returning, south needs going back to south sudan, and other nationalities who have entered the south sudan border sudan gets to play an essential role. in regard to influence, the two countries have social, political and economic ties. the south sudanese government since the fall of the bashir government has also gotten very close with the sudanese military government in khartoum. and this is what is reflected in the appointments of -- as mediator. south sudan has a role to play individually and also as part of the african union, as part of the regional bloc of the intergovernmental organization on development, and also as part of the security council, as a member of the international

community. it will be important for south sudan to stress on the two warring sides to emphasize civilian protection. to ensure that they end the use of weapons such as mortars and artillery shells and many rockets that have a way radius and are too inaccurate and are being used in civilian neighborhoods. they have to emphasize on the sudanese leaders, as well as all the other countries that are involved in mediating -- in conversations around this crisis, whether individually to al-burhan or hemeti, or to other countries, the need for ensuring safe access for civilians, to allow civilians to evacuate, to access medical attention. and to ask the country of south sudan to ramp up humanitarian support and prepare

for how they will receive these vast numbers of people who are entering a country that has had a very huge humanitarian crisis in the last many years. imran: let me bring in stella agara, from nairobi. we have been hearing a lot about this internal government dialogue group, we have also been hearing a lot about the african union. do you think those two organizations are the real players here, or is it going to be something like the united nations, or an even broader international coalition to actually kind of bring peace to sudan? guest: thank you very much for having me in this conversation. indeed i think those two actors who have been brought in some of the key actors in the conversation, of course, led by south sudan. the previous speaker spoke about the strategic position of south sudan, but also the fact that south sudan depends on sudan for oil refining and a bit of of some of their trade. so they are squarely placed to

be able to have the interest of ending the conflict and also the interest of driving sudan towards some form of a resolution. the african union initially had a non-interference policy. but now as the african union, it has a policy to interfere in nations anytime there is a need to secure the interests of citizens, secure the lives of individuals in the continent, so they play a very huge role. the e.u. commission has a department of peace and security that works around issues of conflict in the region, so they are squarely placed in that conversation to guide the conversation in the event that there is a need to send peacekeeping missions from around the continent. they would be the ones coordinating the missions, from the different countries. egad has a very critical role it plays the role of promoting regional coordination and

integration among the countries that are its members -- so that is one of its members. the neighboring countries of sudan are receiving refugees of displaced people from sudan are at the center of these conversations. so the organization comes in critically in terms of trying to bring the interests of the region together and ensuring the member countries are on the table even when conversations are being held about the humanitarian services the country needs. these three actors that have been brought to the table truly deserve to be on the table. there are other actors who have been brought through an expanded mechanism that has been created. i have seen members of russia, the united kingdom, america, china, et cetera, nvr, and based on other interests, but it is important to keep this conversation very deeply

african, before any other external interests are brought to play. imran: let's bring in bakry. you have hurt our guests from nairobi say that this has to be an african thing and perhaps the african union is the strongest and perhaps can offer a peacekeeping mission. are you confident the african union can play that role, or does it need to have a wider role, and international role -- the u.k., russia, the uae, for example? guest: i think the idea of allowing the e.u. to be part of solutions in africa and going with the model african problems, african solutions is a noble and wonderful idea. i am very skeptical about the possibilities of the african union or igad playing any mediation role. i understand igad countries have a stake in the game as they are affected right now we are

expecting more than 200,000 of sudanese, southern sudanese refugees will be going south and that will be an added crisis. ethiopia has more than 300 refugees living in sudan, they might be going back. so we do understand igad countries have a stake in the game. the african union has been trying to play a major role in addressing some issues. but let's go back to the basics. what leverage do the african union really have on those two warrior parties. if you think about it, it will come down to what influence they have. the goodwill is fine, everybody has been calling for the war to stop. but let's be honest, the african union has no capacity, no mechanisms of maintaining peace. it's more than just good will

hunting in my opinion. so it is something to be appreciated. we always have to welcome those ideas coming from our african brothers to try to address african issues, but the issue lies among the four -- the u.s., the u.k., saudi arabia and united arab emirates, simply because they have been in touch with those two parties, they have had talks with them. imran: i have to quickly stop you there, because i want to bring in nyagoah tut pur. bakry says that the african union and igad, they are novel ideas, but there needs to be a broader international quotient to put pressure on the two warring parties. do you think the african union is a noble but flawed idea? guest: i will take a lead from the peace process of the last

many years. it takes a village to achieve. the main goal here is to ensure the safety and protection. accountability for all the abuses being committed currently in over the last few years of the transition. so the whole international community does have the responsibility to ensure that the sudanese crisis does not spiral out of control to the point that it also spills over to regional states such as south sudan, ethiopia, chad and elsewhere. but also, each country individually, and as part of the collective, has specific roles to be played. that is why i keep emphasizing that even if south sudan may not have as much leverage as the u.s., they might be able to influence the two parties, especially in ensuring that civilian protection is a priority and that even the calls of the resistance committees and the various protest movements take center stage where we know that peace processes can often be elitist. it will take a village.

it will take several efforts. it would be a costly process financially, politically and also socially, to the sudanese and their neighbours as well. it will take everybody to be able to use whatever access and leverage they have two ensure that security provisions, civilian protection, accountability, and justice are at the center of how the international community chooses to address this crisis, and that they don't fail the sudanese people again. because what we are looking at is a failure of the international community to deliver on the promises of the revolution that was delivered by this with denise people. imran: -- -- by the sudanese people. imran: stella, you have heard two opinions, one very diplomatic opinion from nairobi, another, perhaps stronger opinion on the african union from new york. do you still think that the african union and igad are the two best mechanisms?

guest: it is unfair to say that the african union does not have the capacity to intervene. in places where the african union has not intervened, it is probably because they did not take interest in the country, but not because they didn't have capacity. as a matter of fact, they have a mandate. they have capacity. they have intervened in conflicts before, some election-related, others that are related to other factors including cross-border conflict. and they continue to do so. igad has played a role in terms of the negotiations in the continent. for me, one of the questions i ask myself is, what do we define as leverage in the conversation? leverage is the ability to understand the terrain around around sudan. leverage is the ability to understand geopolitics around sudan. to have access into sudan without being treated as an opponent. end of the fourth and more critical factor in this conversation, is that leverage

is the ability to be that person is not seen to be a contender in this conflict. we already have information that there is some external influence in the conflict in sudan. we have to make sure, and it is extremely important for matters of peace and security that even as a resolution is being discussed and negotiated, that the people who instigated the conflict, the people behind the conflict, don't then get up with theories to continue to fuel more conflict by bringing the ir interests into the conversation. ringing actors who will embolden or even strengthen some of their hard-line position's is not going to help this conversation. there is also the dynamic of actually being around their neighbors who all have interests therefore interested in seeing he's in south sudan. in terms of the question of

negotiate in the case of south sudan against international interests, i think african countries and the african union itself are well-positioned. they may not necessarily have the most leverage as far as resources are concerned, but in terms of finding a solution, they are the best place to lead in negotiation process. imran: bakry, we are hearing that there is the african union, frontline organizations that will deal with peace, but we have to talk about the region as well. egypt has a very different idea about what it once in sudan, to say, child. for example, chad has a different idea to the other neighbouring countries. there's a lot of competing interests here. is there anything other than stopping the conflict that these people can agree on? guest: i tend to think that there is a way of addressing different neighboring countries' interests, while at the same

time coming up with something sustainable, not just stopping the conflict. let's be honest, stopping the conflict, at this time is not going to address chad, fort wagner, the russians -- chad, or wagner. the russians. as we speak, we know that they are supplying the aricept forces. this was a story on the guardian the other day. there are stories in the ground that this is happening. i don't think we can ignore what egypt has raised. egypt has been a very influential country in sudan. they have a very strong ties with the sudanese military, and they will be one of the countries with influence on what is going on in sudan. and it is not just about sudan and egypt, egypt has interests in the nile. there are some issues regarding the great nile in ethiopia, how

it will be run. what is happening in sudan is not uniquely a sudanese issue. it is a regional issue. and if we don't find a way to address how the -- to address these different concerns and interests from neighboring countries like egypt, ethiopia, south sudan, chad and libya at the same time, we will be back on this some issue at some point. they are really complicated and connected issues. some of them are competition over resources competition over , influence. i tend to -- i am not really positive if regional players are -- regional players alone can resolve this. imran: it's an interesting point. that may bring in nyagoah from nairobi. you heard what bakry had to say. it is very, very complicated, a

lot of different, competing interests. stella was saying that perhaps one of the things that could happen is peacekeeping mission, and african union peacekeeping mission in sudan. but the danger of that is, is it's almost like a plaster. you don't actually deal with the underlying issues, the regional issues. you are just sending a peacekeeping mission. that kind of freezes the conflict, or it doesn't actually sort out the issue. do you think that is a danger? guest: by all means. we have to avoid bandage solutions to a crisis that has very deep roots and where the underlying because it has not been addressed. with the sudanese juba peace process, we all know that the security arrangements that were put in place as well as aspects around civilian protection were never ruled out and they were thrown underneath the surface. so as of now, what we're seeing

internationally as well, there are lots of statements and multiple actions left, right and center, but really no coordinated dramatic effort on addressing the sudanese crisis as a whole. so this is something that needs to be emphasized and public statements being made by multiple countries have to have -- there has to be a united front in how the sudanese crisis will be addressed, because as bakry says, the impacts extend beyond the borders of sudan, and they will have regional impacts. for the south sudanese, for example, crisis is one thing, but also the impact on markets that rely on sudanese goods, the impacts on food insecurity in south sudan. there will need to be higher-level, credible, coordinated efforts to

address the underlying causes. and to bring civilians at the center. the committees, the various movements. imran: sorry, we are running out of time. one final question, stella, there are two very powerful individuals here -- abdul al-burhan and photo op, and hemeti. these are people who will not speak to each other across the table unless they are going to sign something. do you think the regional community, the african union, and deal with those egos? guest: in all honesty, i am one of those who has admitted that their egos are too big and they may need to be pushed to make decisions for the benefit of the citizens of sudan. these big egos do not add any value in the conversation, and it is important that the interests of the table are assessed based on the merit of

what can be delivered within a short-term period and what can be delivered in the long-term period. the interest must be delivered in the body of a nation that has a government, that has proper governance going on. otherwise they will continue fighting and destroying everything in the country. so for me, in this conversation, all the actors must convince those people to do is number one, get them on the table, number two, at least get their factions to begin considerations of what is possible in a short time and what isn't possible in a short time. and understanding of what would be -- it is important. for me, if it means even crawling up the possibility of litigation after this process is completed, is extremely critical because there are certain laws that govern how they engage in war even if they engage in war,

et cetera, that they have flaunted. so it is extreme important that they are brought to the table to understand this. to understand that women, youth and children must be protected even if they are engaging in whatever conflict, and they cannot do that when their neighbors depend on them for trade and other factors, including routes used in that country. imran: i want to thank all of our guests -- nyagoah tut pur, bakry eljack elmedni, and stella agara. and i want to thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that is facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, imran khan and the whole team here, bye, for now. ♪

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