jazeera. folly: after 12 years of civil war and government crackdowns, the arab league has reinstated syria. but some countries have expressed reservations. so does this end bashar al-assad 's regional isolation, and what is next for syria and its people? this is "inside story." hello and welcome to the program. i am folly bah thibault.

syria has been excluded from the arab league for more than a decade. now, bashar al-assad and his regime have been welcomed back. the move points to warming ties between syria and many of its regional neighbors. but critics say calls for accountability over the country's civil war are now fading. we will look into this with our guests in a few minutes, but first, this report. reporter: it's a move that could mark a new chapter for syria's president. 12 years after being pushed out of the arab league, bashar al-assad and his regime are now back in the fold. >> from this point, syria is a full member of the arab league. if the country wishes, it can occupy any seat. that includes next week's arab summit in saudi arabia. is bashar al-assad which is to participate, he can do so. reporter: syria was suspended after its government cracked down on a popular uprising in 2011 that led to its civil war.

more than half a million people have since been killed, millions have fled. some neighboring countries like evan on and jordan have struggled to cope with the refugees. with lack of support in the region, assad turned to iran and russia, and with their help he regained control of syria. >> this visit by iran's president to damascus has special importance in regards to international shifts and what they mean for regional shifts. reporter: syria's war has created a humanitarian crisis and led to western powers imposing sanctions pretty supporters of its return to the arab league say it will strengthen security and stability in the region and can stop other countries from expanding their influence. but critics say syria does not deserve to be readmitted. >> this is a sad day for anyone who cares about democracy, the

rule of law, and human rights. this is rehabilitation of one of the most brutal regimes. this will not really bring more peace and stability to syria. on the contrary, probably this will be very destabilizing. reporter: the arab league says reinstating syria marks the start of a positive process that will help solve the country's long-standing crisis and its effects across the region. ♪ folly: let's bring in our guests now for today's inside story. in washington, d.c. is omar alshogre, a syrian refugee, now director for detainee affairs at the syrian emergency task force. joshua landis is the director of the center for middle east studies at the university of oklahoma joining us from there. and ammar waqqaf, director of

gnosos, a middle east think tank, and a member of the british syrian society. a warm welcome to you all. omar, let me start with you and ask you about your reaction, as someone who suffered at the hands of the syrian regime. you were in detention for three years. what does syria being readmitted to the arab league mean to you? omar: firstly, as an arab, i will not find it hard to believe the arab league exist to support the arab population, but rather to support the arab rulers and leading politicians. as a syrian, despite the fact i do not believe, i cannot see the arab league as an ally of the syrian people, i cannot help but feel disappointed and betrayed. of course you can always see the arab governments talk about brotherhood, generosity, courage. now when it comes to actions, they always support evil.

folly: ammar, let me ask you for your thoughts. omar says he feels disappointed in betrayed. what are your thoughts about the decision to resubmit bashar al-assad's regime, and how does this benefit syria and the arab region? ammar: first of all, this is a pragmatic move, so to speak. if the arab states, or at least certain arab states have tried to topple the government in damascus, they failed, they must have a different way. it happened in yemen as well. they must sit and negotiate, they must readmit. the days of dreaming about getting rid of al-assad are over, everyone realizes that. so the only course of action is to sit, try to talk with him, and seek his help, help him help them. so whatever problems they might have in the region. as for the syrian people, i think there is a light at the end of the tunnel finally. the largest factor of people

getting out of syria at this moment in time, which is affecting all neighboring countries, let alone europe, is the bad economic situation. that is aggravated by the sanctions. people in syria i believe that once you warm up relations with the arab world, then things will probably get better, at least on the economic side, which would stabilize the situation inside syria and bring them a bit more stability on all sides. folly: joshua landis, let me ask you for your thoughts, before i get back to omar who seems to disagree with the. ammar says this is a pragmatic move. the regional calculus certainly seems to have shifted. what do you think is driving this need to rehabilitate bashar al-assad? joshua: i don't think anybody is interested in rehabilitating bashar al-assad. but when we think of the 16 million syrians who have been left behind and are suffering

terribly from civil war, sanctions, and property, 90% of syrians are living below the poverty line -- sanctions are not worshiping -- not working. it has not hurt assad. this does not bring justice to assad. this brings injustice to the syrians. and i think the arab regimes have seen it that way. you can choose your friends, but you can't choose your neighbors. and they have many outstanding issues that they wanted to get solved. things such as the trade, the return of refugees, trying to decrease iran and russia's influence in the region. trying to get occupying powers like turkiye and the u.s. out of syria and return sovereignty to syria. all of those issues cannot be addressed unless they are dealing with a government. i think that is the bottom line, that they want to deal with a government. they see the suffering of the syrians, as they saw with the

earthquake, and they believe that that is the only way forward because sanctions have failed. can the u.s. does not have a policy to bring assad to justice. if it did, i think they would pursue it. i think this is why this has gone on for so many years, the sanctions, without any real pushback. folly: omar, your response to this? ammar says that this is the light at the end of the tunnel for syrians. joshua says freezing the regime has not really worked in that dealing with a government is the only way forward. what do you say to that? omar: what i would say is that this regime has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions, and imprisoned so many. now these people are still under torture. there is over 130,000 people being tortured on a daily basis. you cannot talk about a political solution, or a solution for the people on the ground, and a way for the refugees to return back if you

are keeping the same reason for the refuge in place, which is the syrian government. the syrian regime did not change any behaviors. you cannot negotiate with any regime that is not willing to change anything. not even apologize for the statements and made against the arab governments for many years, calling them the exporters of terrorists, and half-men, trash, and so on. the syrian regime is not willing to negotiate. and by welcoming them back, you are telling them that you can kill your way to power. you are telling every arab ruler that you can kill, rape, and torture your citizens one by one and you will still be welcome the back. the only way for the solution -- let me touch base on the sanctions. you understand the impact of sanctions when you remove them. if you remove the sanctions, you are giving so many ways for the regime to fund its death machines. that is our biggest problem with the syrian regime, it has the power to kill people. if we lift these sanctions the

regime will have so many ways of funding its operations. that is why we keep the sanctions. folly: ammar, your thoughts on this, and is president assad willing to resolve the conflict today, is he willing to negotiate with the opposition, is he willing to get some consensus? ammar: i don't think there will ever be a consensus. let me just tell you that at the very start of this conflict, march 2011, i heard a narrative -- this is the first day of the so-called resolution -- revolution. some guy, a cleric reads a list of demands, the first of which is to separate boys and girls in schools. for some people, this speaks of democracy and human rights. to me, it's the opposite. we have to admit the syrian people are split on either the motives of the revolution, and the way it was carried out. and of course let alone the

international and regional intervention. so, how to solve this problem? you have people in syria who, from day one, resolved to supporting the government because they wanted to protect themselves. these are the constituency of the government. nothing is going to happen unless they are happy. folly: but is anything going to change on the government side? is it going to make concessions? ammar: my understanding is that there are preparations for some sort of a political solution. i would call it a political midway solution. there has been some movement on the process. this would lead to some people, some parties who might be included in a future government. but to be honest, the people in syria who feel that they don't want this revolution cannot accept more than this. so we have to go midway in between. to think of toppling, i think

that is just dreams from the very beginning, to be honest. we need to think that the people in syria who took refuge in supporting the government, who felt threatened by the revolution, will not accept people who, a, -- they are feeling the brunt of it. everybody's livelihood has deteriorated 100 fold inside syria because some die and's -- some guy in washington thinks this is the best way to put pressure on assad. it is not going to happen. it is not related just to assad, it's a whole part of the syrian people. folly: joshua, there is a point to be made that there is a huge section of the syrian society that feels excluded as a result of this as we heard from omar. and they say that this is rehabilitating, in a way, a brutal regime which committed crimes and abuses during this conflict. what do you do about these

people, and those syrians who still live in government controlled areas, those who are still languishing in prison? joshua: well, he's completely right that this is not going to bring the regime to justice. but the problem i think that we have reiterated is that there is no policy to bring the regime to justice. sanctions do not bring justice to the regime. we saw this in iraq, where the u.n. considered half a million people dying because of sanctions. this is going to happen in syria. it is happening in syria. why kill a lot of innocent people in order to bring justice to assad? he's not going to care if this is the way. he has shown he is very stubborn and he is willing to see syrians die. it's true that many syrians, particularly who found asylum in the united states and europe,

are furious at this, because it means they will never be able to go home, and that is a terrible crime. but they have forgotten the people who have been left behind. this is the problem. you have two problems. and the united states had a chance to overturn the assad regime. they had four years before the russians entered in, and they got spooked by the opposition. they turned away. we have seen in ukraine but they can do if they put their mind to it. they could have destroyed assad and his army, they chose not to. they feared it destroying the syrian army because they worried the opposition would take damascus, and that would be worse than assad. folly: i want to ask you about the u.s., because the state department in its statement after the decision was made, said it is skeptical of assad's willingness to solve the syrian crisis, but at the same times said it was aligned with arab partners on ultimate goals. what does that mean?

what are the ultimate goals here? joshua: well, the united states would like 2254 to be imposed, which calls for democratic elections overseen by the u.n., which would fulfill america's demand that syria become democratic, have elections, and assad leave power. but of course assad will not fulfill those. so this is a disappointment to the u.n. and to the united states. the u.s. also wants the kurdish region, which it oversees with its soldiers today, 30% of syria, to have autonomy and for the syrian democratic forces, these kurdish-led militia to remain sovereign in northern syria. and assad has said he is not going to do that. os, from both -- so, from both of those points of view, kurdish autonomy as well as democratic elections, are not going to happen in syria. this is a very big disappointment to the united states. but to the arab regime and the

arab governments, they don't mind this so much because they are not democratic themselves. they would not want to see a democratic syria. and they don't want an independent kurdish state, or quasi-independent kurdish state in the north of syria. so this is why they have gone ahead and defied these u.s. goals for syria. folly: it seems like we are back to square one with this. omar in washington, d.c., let me ask you about the way forward now. i mean, we heard in the beginning the u.s. calling for regime change in syria. that does not seem to be happening anytime soon. at least bashar al-assad seems to be firmly in place. you talked about your disappointment with arab leaders. so what would you like to see happen next tuesday to -- next to change the status quo, and for the country to thrive again? what would you like to see happen? omar: firstly, let me respond

quickly to your guests. exactly 10 years ago, may 2, or may 3, my hometown was attacked by the intelligence services of the syrian regime. my father was killed, my brothers were killed, my childhood home and school were bombed. the same government that is killing the syrian people is a cerium regime --syrian regime. that is not anything we can deny. i am not only disappointed with the arab league, i am disappointed with many countries that were considered of allies of the u.s. -- of the syria people. the u.s. policy is not a good enough policy to bring justice or accountability or democracy to syria. what we are trying to do is we are trying to find which allies can we rely on, at least in a small thing. whether the interest of this ally, the interest of the syrian people, if the crossing point is something to work on. there is no great interest for the world to bring democracy to syria, that is clear. however, that does not mean we

keep assad in our. assad -- in power. assad has slaughtered people for a long time. so we keep pushing for the legal way. one of the things we had success with is managing to capture and build legal cases against individuals part of the syrian regime. one of them was prosecuted for crimes against humanity. that means you are part of a system that did that, and the system is the syrian regime. so the syrian regime is technically sentenced for committing crimes against humanity, and there is evidence of that. so we have different cases, over 10 different legal cases we have, some against high-level officials in the syrian regime. one can always say, well, these people will never leave syria to be captured anyway. what you are building is building legal cases that prevent so many european countries or the u.s. to normalize its relationship with the syrian regime over time. because we can see that policy

changes over time with different administrations, which is why what we are trying to do is build infrastructure that can prevent so many countries from normalizing the syrian regime. the syrian regime is not ready to release 130,000 people from his presence. the syrian regime will not accept refugees back because the conditions are not fixed. the regime will never let them peacefully returned back. and we saw that. some are being taken to prison and tortured just for being refugees abroad because they escaped because they wanted to survive. this regime is capable of killing people because of saw that the international community and neighboring countries are not holding this regime accountable. and that is our problem. that is what we are challenging for, the fact we are not reaching accountability, not holding this regime accountable. we have to do that, even with the small steps we can take. folly: ammar, what do you respond to what we just heard from omar, and what needs to

happen now, given that this regime is not going anywhere? what needs to happen to get the refugees to return, to get the economy going again? ammar: first of all, guess what? the other party has committed, or have collectively committed quite a lot of atrocities as well. so the part of the syrian people who supports the government thinks it is not a great idea to allow them back or even to release them from prison. so that is a problem we need to have. this part of the syrian society needs to feel assured about any political process going forward. this is about the inside of syria. one of the functions and what is happening in this point in time, one of the aspects is that the arab league, the arab states also need syria on a regional basis to solve issues like, for example, the problem in palestine, the problem with iraq, we problem in yemen. it was interesting to read the syrian foreign ministry's

statement on the resumption of the arab league membership. they spoke about mutual respect, they spoke about joint work with the arab colleagues and brothers on regional issues. so, yes, this process, it started in 2021, in november 2021 with an initiative by four arab states, egypt, jordan, saudi arabia, and uae. they had a meeting before the american elections. they came out with a statement that they wanted to preserve the arabic face of syria. the king of jordan flew to washington, then moscow afterwards, and he told the two leaders about what was happening, what's the point of view of these four states. and what we see now is like an implementation of that process, which led afterwards to some embassies. so, the issue of bringing back

syria to the fold is not really only related to syria's internal conflict problems, even that we need to accept that there will be some political process that the syrian state might have up its sleeve, and again, it would need the acceptance of the people inside. folly: i do want to ask you, joshua, about the regional dynamics in a moment, but i want to allow omar to respond to an interesting point made by ammar. that is the fact that some syrians say that the regime is not the only one to have committed crimes in this conflict. omar: ammar, when i was 15 years old i was taken to prison. i was tortured for committing no crimes. you can imagine, 15-year-old is not likely to be committing crimes. i was tortured. my fingernails was pulled out. i was released a few days later, but i was arrested again when i was 17.

in these prisons i had my friends, my classmates with me. none of us committed any crimes. that was early 2011. those people were not criminals, man. you know it more than anyone else, you know they are not criminals. my family was killed. my father served 25 years in the syrian army, and as soon as they attacked to do some ethnic cleansing in my town, they killed everyone including my father. there have been crimes committed on all sides, that is one thing. there has been a crime committed from the other side. nobody can deny that. but using it yourself, the regime committed so many crimes that need to be held accountable. the other sides need to be held accountable, definitely. but the regime must also be held accountable, because they are technically the one who initiated all these crimes. and of course the arab countries are not technically running out from the interest of the syrian regime. mostly for their own interest in the region. however, from the perspective of human rights, the fact the

syrian regime has committed these crimes against humanity, you are normalizing a regime and giving it the message that any ruler around the world can kill its way, can vomits people with chemical weapons and still be in power. folly: please respond briefly before i go back to joshua. ammar: there was a guy from the militia who beheaded an 11-year-old in front of the cameras. if i were to be invited to the security council, whatever the world would like to hear a different part of the story, i would use less of a foul language, omar, and i would explain to them that there are quite a lot of horrible stories on the others. -- other sise. th -- other side. the two sides of the syrian people need to understand that this is not to happen. getting rid of the syrian state is just not going to happen. we paid too much of a price to allow that to happen. if you want to lower your expectations, if you want to do

some soul-searching -- by the way, i do sympathize with your personal plight, but there are others on the others that you need to look at and acknowledge before we can do any piece talking, so to speak. folly: joshua, let me ask you about the regional dynamics. how does the reignition -- readmission of syria into the arab league impact the dynamics and sense of unity first within the arab league itself? because as we know, some countries including qatar, morocco had expressed reservations about bringing syria back into the fold. and also, where does this leave syria's relationship with iran and russia, to some extent? joshua: well, obviously it is a success for the assad government. and it will be a success, i believe, for many of the poorest syrians who have a hope now of getting trade back. but of course the u.s. sanctions , eu sanctions, are very heavy

and they remain on syria. syria's national budget this year was only $3 billion, which is less than many universities in the united states. so, it is not going to transform syria overnight. but in some ways, it puts the arab countries at loggerheads with the united states on policy for syria. they have stated that they want syrian sovereignty, that they want to reconstruct syria so refugees will go home. and these are things that they cannot do unless sanctions are lifted. and so this is going to cause considerable damage, i think, over the long-term, and the united states is going to have to trim its sails on syria, or it's going to begin to, relate, come at cross purposes with its

allies like saudi arabia, jordan, and so forth, all of whom are pushing for greater construction and return of refugees. folly: what about iran and russia's influence in syria? joshua: they are going to remain strong. this is a win for russia and iran, which is one of the reasons the u.s. did not want to do it. now, saudi arabia and others are counting on the fact that if they can spend money in damascus, that this will lessen damascus's dependence on iran, and they might be able to get more influence in places like lebanon for saudi arabia. they might be able to stem the trade, if there's illicit trade. so they are trying to deal with assad, and all of that of course is going to strengthen the syrian government and the syrian military. folly: thank you so much, we are going to leave it there. thank you so much for a great discussion. omar alshogre, ammar waqqaf, and joshua landis, thank you for

joining us. and thank you for watching. you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website at aljazeera.com. for further discussion go to our facebook page, facebook.com/a jinsidestory. and you can join the conversation on twitter. from me and the whole team here in doha, thanks for watching. bye for now. ♪