documentary on al jazeera. laura: he sailed to easy victories in previous elections, but not this time. turkish president recep tayyip erdogan is facing his first serious political challenge in two decades, as turkiye has for a runoff vote. can erdogan keep his job? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. i am laura kyle. one of the most closely

contested elections in turkiye's recent history has ended without a clear winner. neither president recep tayyip erdogan nor his main challenger kemal kilicdaroglu were able to clinch a majority. erdogan is perhaps the most important figure in turkiye since the founder of the republic a century ago. and kilicdaroglu, who is backed by a rare alliance of diverse political parties, has a rear -- real chance of unseating him. for the first time the presidential election is going to a runoff. we will speak to our guests about what all this means for turkiye's future, but first here's more on the first-round result. reporter: turkiye's future hangs in the balance. after the elections produced no clear winner, a second round of voting is set for later this month. president recep tayyip erdogan has told supporters he is ready for a runoff. the result is one of the

opposition's best showings in years. six parties unite behind a sickle candidate, hoping to end erdogan's two decades in power. kemal kilicdaroglu says if he wins, he will return turkiye to a parliamentary system. he has urged supporters to be patient. >> despite his smear campaign against us, erdogan has not gotten a result he wanted. if the first round was not enough to receive the mandate, we are going to get it in the runoff election. reporter: a third contender has done better than expected. so far he is refusing to back either erdogan or kilicdaroglu. >> there'll be another difficult 15 days ahead of us and during this time if the elections are completed with the current results and go to the second round, we will do our best to make this process a good one for our nation and our country. at this time, we are not saying that we will support one party or the other. reporter: erdogan's popularity

has been dented in recent years. economy is in crisis. high inflation and a plummeting local currency have left many families unable to afford basic food items. his government was accused of responding too slowly to earthquakes in february. 50,000 died and more than 1.5 million are homeless. but supporters praise his record on foreign investment and ambitious and projector projects. erdogan and kilicdaroglu have two weeks to convince voters they are the best candidate to lead turkiye into a prosperous preacher. -- future. laura: for more on this, let's go to our guests, all of them joining us from istanbul. tarik oguzlu, professor of international relations at istanbul aydin university. helin sari ertem, associate professor at istanbul medeniyet university. she specializes in turkish foreign policy. and yusuf alabarda is a columnist for turkiye gazetesi,

a retired turkish kernel. a warm welcome to all of you. helin, what surprises came out of this election for you? helin: well, for the first time actually, we can call this a kind of victory, although many of us are talking about the runoff, a kind of balance with the two leaders and we are going to a second round. but at the same time when i consider the huge amount of people among the opposition alliance, we can still talk about a victory on erdogan's side. regarding the second run, well, it's difficult. it will be a difficult and a very tense two weeks ahead of us, and we all have to be very careful in order not to increase the tension among turkish society.

we're talking not only about the economy, as bill clinton called in the early 1990's, the economy is stupid but i believe this time it is not on the economy at stake. we can assume there is a kind of lifestyle difference between both sides. there's a difference regarding how to lead in the next decades for our children and for the other parts of the turkish nation. so i think we can call that these two weeks will be very difficult, very tense in turkiye. laura: absolutely. because turkiye is incredibly polarized right now. that is one thing this result as shown, hasn't it? helin: this polarization is something global. we see a huge amount of polarization in the united states as well. so the people in almost every country all around the world, we're getting polarized. and actually, this is somehow

related to the choice of being with democracy or without democracy. we are talking about democracy versus authoritarianism. unfortunately, this might be the case in turkiye as well. for that reason, i think the people will be pushing so hard to have the right to decide their future. unfortunately, yes, this is a kind of global wave which is also affecting turkiye. laura: ok. tarik, let's bring you in. erdogan is facing the biggest challenge of his 20 year career in power. however, he was expected to perform worse than he did. he did perform better than the polls predicted. why was that? tarik: i think it was mainly because of the political campaigning process. the administration, the kind of messages the people are quite

different than the kind of messages given by the people's alliance. stressing the importance of stability, and the importance that -- [indiscernible] the supporters of erdogan are keen on the idea of survival of the state might be at stake. and erdogan has been differing to the fact that westerners which had a problem with turkiye -- so if you support meet, you will give a lesson to them. that was the key message he was given to his constituency. was also talking about grand juror. -- gradeur. the people believed erdogan was

the man who did many good things for the people. for them, erdogan is still the man to figure out solutions. and finally maybe, the kind of political figures who established previous relations with erdogan in the past, were not accepted b y the other party. [indiscernible] finally, there's a very important cycle. what was the picture? one man, erdogan, against all eight men all together. people like to see to support something against other people, then you are our hero. this hero mentality i think played a significant role. laura: we will come back back to

that, more about erdogan's polling appeal. yusuf, we heard perhaps why erdogan did better than expected. why did his rival, kemal kilicdaroglu, perform worse? what was his fall down? yusuf: if you take a look at the turkish voters sociology, that is a surprise -- not a surprise for us who pay attention. 35% of voters belong to left parties. if you look at mr. kilicdaroglu 's votes, 35 points plus 10 points from the good party, a right party. for that reason, that's not a surprise, why you have these two votes if 45. so it was a huge manipulation that mr. kilicdaroglu iwll wi --

will win 57% of turkish voters. it was a huge manipulation. the second issue, why kilicdaroglu could not reach 50%, kilicdaroglu is not a new proof for turkish politics. he came to power in 2010. and in his 13 years, he lost 11 elections to erdogan. this is not the first time, this is the 11th time he is losing to mr. erdogan. so i do not understand why the western media is so surprised why he has lost. he is the man who lost every election he has participated in. because what he is telling to the turkish people does not create any excitement. laura: that is a very interesting point that you brought up. i want to pass it over to helin. do you agree that kilicdaroglu was never going to have an opportunity to win? as yusuf says, his party has

lost now 11 times to erdogan. was he the wrong candidate for the national alliance to pick? helin: the opposition could prefer a much stronger, very charismatic name, but they cannot find one. that was the biggest problem. they could not decide on one very strong charismatic figure. and kilicdaroglu was the only option in a way, because there was not any other. he was representing the, let's say, largest opposition group in turkish parliament. but i do agree with yusuf that he did not perform well in the previous elections. this is the case. but at the same time, i would not call that it is going to be something impossible. i would not say never. but yes, it's difficult for him to fight against erdogan for the second round. still, if the opposition, if the

people who are really aware of their future, what they want for their future, if they come together, consolidate, forget about -- there might be a chance for kilicdaroglu to be successful against erdogan. this is a difficult case. plus, looking at our heritage, looking at turkish political history, we know that turkish people like very strong, very tough guys to be in politics. unfortunately, that is the case. so comparing kilicdaroglu with erdogan, kilicdaroglu is the moderate name. let's say he is ready to listen to different political opinions, but he is not that strong as erdogan as a personal tendency, let's say. and this is the biggest difference. laura: let me just jump to tarik for a moment, because he brought in this idea of erdogan being a

hero, which was quite pertinent to the situation. he may be a hero to many people, but is he worthy of being president? is he worthy of running the country? when you look at the state of turkiye's economy, you have soaring runaway inflation, massive unemployment, so much criticism over the dealing of the fallout from the earthquake which killed more than 50,000 people. is the right man to continue leading turkiye? tarik: it is up to the turkish people to decide who was the right man to continue. it seems that the people are keen on this particular point. erdogan is a god, they think. the other have to is not agree with this idea. but since erdogan came to power 20 years ago, whatever erdogan did benefited turkiye to a significant extent.

if you exclude the last six years. many things have gotten much worse. we all know what. we have already undertaken this. even the erdogan administration itself admits of all the problems turkish people have these days. they advocate, they accept they have problems, but they also offer solutions. let's not forget the fact they can use the state. erdogan has done a good job campaigning to push people to believing the idea that if you give me the chance, i promise i will do my best to get a much better life. people seem to have bought this slogan, about this idea. so that is why they support him. let's not forget the fact --

laura: on the campaign promises, i want to make a point of raising this. yusuf, many campaign promises were made by erdogan. some would say they are utterly unrealistic, given the state of the turkish economy. he is promising to double the minimum wage, he is promising more energy subsidies, he is promising to increase pensions while allowing more than 2 million people to retire immediately. how is he going to deliver on any of these promises? yusuf: to tell the truth that erdogan has applied popular economical declarations against the turkish voters. it's the reason that if erdogan does not declare that popular economic declarations, mr. kilicdaroglu was offering even double. for that reason, he was forced to declare such kind of popular economical issues. but let's keep into consideration that 20 years ago when erdogan came into power,

the minimum wage was $100. now it is $450. so the turkish people know it very well, although it has not been stressed a lot in western media. the turkish people know that their minimum wage salary has increased four times more than compared to 20 years ago. but i agree that there are economical problems, not only inside turkiye, but all over the world. but the people address that. only erdogan can solve these problems, not kilicdaroglu. laura: but many would say that mr. erdogan has created these problems, especially when they are looking at inflation. he is creating that by not dealing with interest rates. yusuf: that is true. that is true that inflation is a huge problem. since erdogan is the ruling leader inside turkiye, he's responsible for inflation. but the inflation rates are not

high only in turkiye. it is also at the maximum level high records inside the united states and in many european countries because of the energy prices and the war in ukraine. we know that is has also global roots, but of course erdogan is responsible as the leader ruling the government. but it means that the voters say, ok, we know the problem, we know the reasons, but i do trust you can solve this, but not kilicdaroglu. laura: ok. let's not write kilicdaroglu out of the conversation just yet, before the runoff has even happened. helin, what are his promises to fix the economy and why did they not resonate with voters in enough of a way to pull people from erdogan's party to him? helin: well, unfortunately, once again i would say that this is something not very easy.

because there is a rising, especially among those people congo sells nationalists, and many of the experts could not proceed that the national movement party would gain that many votes, especially in central anatolia. there's rising nationalism as a political wave in turkiye. and please, let's not forget that erdogan's whole political propaganda in the last year was based on a very nationalistic narrative. he was talking about great turkiye, he was talking about giving a better place in the world to turkiye. for that reason, i think we can claim that the people have already bought this nationalistic narrative, talking about great turkish nation and great turkish state.

this is something very difficult for kilicdaroglu to win over in the second round. because many of the people, at latest -- at least let's say half of the turkish population, agree that these are problems, but they are created by the west. and erdogan can use this, untie western rhetoric quite well. people are not reading books, people are watching tv series and thinking that turkiye is actually great. but unfortunately it is prevented by western commerce. the united states has been, let's say, the first country called by the turkish population in the last decade as number one foreign threat. the enemy. so we are talking about turkish and united states alliance, but at the same time we see that turkish people are believing

that the united states is actually not a friend but an enemy. unfortunately, let's say in my point of view, this coincides with erdogan's political propaganda which underlines the great turkish nation and country. laura: tarik, to what extent do you agree that the turkish people are buying into an unrealistic narrative erdogan is spinning and they don't see the real problems right in front of them? tarik: again, it's an open-ended question and defies logical thinking of people. we can't say erdogan's voters are rational, or they don't notice the economic problems. they are very much aware of those problems and they are quite rational in this sense. but i think they have confidence in the way erdogan might rule

the country. they have seen in the past that this guy did many positive things for the nation. they know it, and they maybe want to give him one last chance to prove his credentials once again. laura: so he might have one less chance in this runoff. i want to jump in there, because i want yusuf -- she will be pretty important over the next couple of weeks with both sides trying to woo him. he won around 5% of the vote, a crucial number. who are his supporters likely to go to? yusuf: i do not think he has the power to carry what he already got from the waters. since he will not be on the list for the presidency. his voters will be using their

choice in a couple different phases. i don't think half of his voters will not be voting in the coming elections. the rest of them probably might choose to go to mr. erdogan because if they take a look at sinan ogan, his party -- for that reason, his voters will probably not choose kilicdaroglu . laura: helin, what are your thoughts about sinan ogan and where his voters might fall in two weeks time? helin: he has already underlined a couple days ago that he would be asking for a strong role in the next government, let's say. from the president. who it will be, we don't know. but he will be asking for important roles in democracy.

it depends on which party will satisfy his demands. but 5% is a success. sinan ogan is there as an important figure, and in my opinion he will affect the results of the election. he is getting most of his votes from young people who do not want to decide between erdogan and kilicdaroglu. they are having an alternative view, and i think they will try to attracted the thoughts of the young people who are looking for a new alternative in turkish politics. and for sure sinan ogan will be in turkish politics for the next decade. laura: let's not forget the parliamentary elections also held. even if kilicdaroglu does win the runoff, he will be quite stymied in the legislature. tarik: exactly.

we're going to face a crisis of governmental unity if the president comes from one party and the members of parliament are coming from other parties. majority speaking. [indiscernible] if you want much more stability in the country, erdogan says you have to choose me, otherwise you will face a political crisis. i think the people in turkiye are buying this particular proposal. we should also underline something much more important, i assume. ogan supporters are very keen on the idea that they should not side with the people who support quote-unquote ethnic separators. the the public of people party

is not a leading ticket on the part of the supporters of sinan ogan. in this particular, sinan ogan supporters might shift allegiance to erdogan. erdogan will also continue to tell them, ok, if you elect me, i promise i will do my best to make your life much better, because i have the power at my disposal, i can do that. also, it might politically contribute to the success of erdogan, the people who support the people's alliance feel a little bit frustrated and disappointed. some of them might not show up in the upcoming elections. we should never forget the political factors in the upcoming runoff election. that is quite important. laura: yusuf, the last word to

you. this runoff is uncharted territory for turkiye. it has not seen this in a presidential race before. helin alluded to it earlier, that it is quite a tense time. what do you feel is the atmosphere in turkiye right now? yusuf: i can say that the atmosphere in turkiye is very normal. yesterday i was in the streets of istanbul. the people, in a very normal way, have accepted the solution. no protests on the streets, because everything is so crystal clear. for the second round, i do believe that the majority of the parliament is controlled by the erdogan alliance. that will not be a huge problem for erdogan's to reach his goals. the second issue is already he got 49.5% of the vote.

so, i do not believe that the participation rates will be 9%. -- 90%. almost 90% of the participation rates for this election. in the second round it will be in the 80's, so it will break for erdogan two extra points and carry him to 52%. laura: it certainly was an extremely high turnout, as it generally is in turkiye. this discussion perhaps is a microcosm as well as just how polarized the countries as well. many thanks for all of you for joining the discussion today. tarik oguzlu, helin sari ertem, and yusuf alabarda. and thank you too for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting aljazeera.com. for further discussion go to facebook.com/ajinsidestory. we can also join the conversation on twitter, at @ajinsidestory. from me, laura kyle, and the

whole team here, bye for now. ♪