another term? the turkish leader has got a much-needed endorsement from a nationalist party leader. but will that make a difference? and what impact will they have on turkiye's future? this is inside story. mohammed: welcome to the program. i am mohammed jamjoom.

an entire era of turkish politics has been defined by president recep tayyip erdogan. his challenger, kemal kilicdaroglu, is his polar opposite, both in personality and politics. as we reach sunday's closely fought run-off, both candidates are turning to nationalist groups to widen their bases. the struggling economy, inflation, and the aftermath of the earthquakes are all pressing issues, but it appears nationalism can be a defining factor in the selection. reporter: with just a few days left before sunday's runoff election, turkish president recep tayyip erdogan appears confident he will win. he has turned to hard-line nationalists like the third-place candidate who did not make it to the next round of voting. >> i invite all voters to now

support president erdogan in the runoff election. reporter: the opposition is feeling the pressure and was looking to nationalist groups for support. kemal kilicdaroglu has adopted a more strident tone, embracing an anti-immigrant rhetoric. it could eliminate -- alienate many who supported him in the first round of voting. >> i am address and everybody. we did not find our homeland on the street. we will not leave our homeland to this mentality. reporter: analysts suggest the opposition underestimated voters sense of nationalism. some may criticize president erdogan's policies, but many see him as a strong leader. >> i love him. what more can this man do for

this country? reporter: some of the president's critics say he is not a democratic leader. >> a lot has changed since the last presidential election. our freedom is limited. we are prevented from expressing ourselves. reporter: erdogan's ties with vladimir putin makes money uneasy. but many of his supporters appear to welcome it. with both candidates turning towards nationalist groups to win, some question what effect this will have on how turkiye is governed over the next 10 years. mohammed: let's bring in our guests. they are all joining us from turkey. in an simple, -- in istanbul,

mehmet celik, editorial coordinator at the daily sabah newspaper. burak dalgin, vice chairman of the opposition democracy and progress party. tarik oguzlu, professor of international relations and dean of the faculty of science and arts at istanbul aydin university. thank you so much for joining us. how much has nationalism turned out to be a defining factor in this election cycle? >> i think it is the key issue of this process because in the first round the president used this ideology quite successfully. at the end of the day we see the results.

[indiscernible] nationalism has become very much adopted. erdogan has proved he is a master politician. the core issue in this runoff concerns the immigration issue.

mohammed: i will get back to you about what you wear a dress and in regards to kemal kilicdaroglu and the fact that he has aligned himself with the nationalist figures. the nationalist hard-line candidate sinan ogan received 5.2% of the votes in the first round and he has now endorsed president erdogan. do you believe his endorsers well follow his lead? >> i think it is an open-ended question. none of us can be sure.

he was saying there was something wrong with erdogan's policies. he was supported by other parties. it has made everything much more complicated than they used to be. we are not in a position to say that all of sinan ogan at bus supporters will flock to erdogan. mohammed: at a time when he was

called a kingmaker in the election cycle, do you believe that sinan ogan has the powerful party apparatus to enable him to ensure his voters support erdogan rather than skip the runoff? >> i agree with the previous speaker that sinan ogan's voting potential is not similar to other candidates. i think his voter base is not homogenous. she does not even represent a party in that sense. it is hard to say where his voter base will be directed to. on the case of nationalism, i think we have to devour j --

differentiate between nationalism in europe versus the new tendencies on the right due to the presence of syrian refugees for the past decade. i think classifying present erdogan -- president erdogan would be misrepresentation of this is voter base. -- his voter base. i think we should differentiate between his nationalism versus the ultra nationalism, which has been the case with this election . i think the kingmaker whether it is sinan ogan or

ultranationalist voters is something we have to clarify. if he is a kingmaker that will be something we have to answer by answering whether he has the ability to direct all his voter base toward one candidate or not. i am not sure he has that ability. he himself has -- has said he is not 100% sure his voters will be directed toward either candidate. mohammed: you are talking about trying to differentiate between nationalism and ultra nationalism. if you have both of the major candidates, president erdogan and kemal kilicdaroglu who are both aligning themselves with figures of the ultranationalist parties who are taking

anti-migration and anti-refugee stances, where does it put them going into the second round? >> the anti-refugee tendencies has been very loud in the turkish media and turkish politics although this is not the general sentiment of the turkish society. i am making a differentiation between the ultranationalists and the patriotic citizens, which both candidates have in their voter base. more crucial and the reason why these ultranationalist tendencies have been the kingmaker is they both do not align themselves with either candidate. in the system where every vote counts, every segment of the society becomes very crucial.

that is why kemal kilicdaroglu was able to attract the voters of the kurds. i think they are trying to target every single vote. it becomes very crucial to have. there is this fine line whether their voters will go to ballot boxes in the second round. for president erdogan, there is a sense of success in parliament. these are two poles which can perhaps lead their voter base not to go to the ballot box. those voters are the kingmaker's rather than some of the new

ultranationalist tendencies. mohammed: let's go back almost two weeks. let's take a look at the lead up to the first round. did the opposition underestimate how much of a role nationalism would play in the selection and voters' sense of nationalism? >> i would not call it nationalism. i would call it the effect of the third candidate, sinan ogan. over 8 million people did not vote. almost 12 million people did not vote for either candidate.

[indiscernible] i agree with the previous speakers. the two candidates are close to 50% but not quite. it does not mean there is a tilt toward nationalism.

mohammed: let me ask you this. kemal kilicdaroglu has really changed his tone in recent weeks. he had this grandfather image. and he stepped up his anti-refugee rhetoric. you yourself talked about the endorsement from the victory party. does this risk alienated a substantial part of his base, especially many kurds that supported him in the first round? >> he is the candidate for a

very broad coalition. that is a natural extension of his political character. in the second round, she is stressing his security credentials for two reasons. the government attacked him on those fronts. i think he is underscoring those credentials as antiterrorism, strength national security leadership. there may be some marginal reactions, but the broader base

is understanding why she is doing this so i do not expect significant backlash. mohammed: no matter who wins in the runoff, will the strong performance of the nationalist pull the turkish government policy further to the right in the years to come? >> if you are asking this question, i cannot 100% say it will come closer to the countries like russia and china. this suggests that [indiscernible] will become much more visible around the globe.

it can also suggest that if erdogan wins this election, he will continue to dominate turkish domestic politics. but we should not forget that political rivals [indiscernible] how does turkey improve their relations with western powers? a leader who speaks about finding solutions for the economic problems and putting turkish foreign policy and much better situations with western alliances.

let me also say something about the other issue. there was a political placed in the strategy used on the weight of the runoff. -- there was a politicalization strategy used on the way to the runoff. he had to change his position. he says it is the kind of election suggesting the kind of referendum on turkiye. he has said that he represents the forces of good.

a buy pay some dividends in the upcoming elections. -- it might pay some dividends in the upcoming election. he received questions from erdogan supporters and he responded in an extreme manner. if you give me the chance i will prove i learned my lessons. mohammed: whether we want to define some of these figures as nationalist or ultranationalist, there are new alliances forged by president erdogan who are

hard-line figures on the right. i want to ask you about the new alliances and how that realigns turkish politics going forward? how much does it impact the political landscape in turkey going forward? >> it is no secret that there is a new turkiye that has become a big influential actor in its region and also in international politics. its internal dynamics have also changed. one of the reasons this whole political spectrum is achieved is because there is a huge burden of refugees in turkey

which has contributed to shaping its domestic politics in one way or the other. and it has shaped its economy in one way or the other. when it comes to its defense industry that has been popular in recent years, its political dynamics have also changed. there is a new sense of new turkiye that has shaped the political psyche of the society and created new alliances and a new sense of unity in the face of some external threats, be it along its southern border or with northern syria or in the east or in libya. so there are new dynamics that

are affected. how these alliances will play out in the future will depend on maintaining this new turkiye. whether turkeya is going to be one that becomes a mere puppet of the west or turns its back to the east, or whether it is going to diversify. all of these new roles ultimately affects its domestic

dynamics. a new atmosphere is emerging. these political alliances are partially due to these new dimensions that turkiye has been evolving into over the past two decades. mohammed: president erdogan's stronger-than-expected showing the first round surprised polls ters. how did they get it so wrong? >> they had assumed [indiscernible]

the turkish electorate [indiscernible] she may have some. i think that has been largely underestimated. this is very much important. mohammed: we are starting to run out of time. if kemal kilicdaroglu were to prevail, how difficult would it be for him to unite his

alliance? >> i think that is the key question. even president erdogan is on the line. reaching consensus will be extremely difficult within the coalition. it is an extremely difficult question to answer. kemal kilicdaroglu will face an increasingly difficult situation. consensus is not a part of turkish political culture. ruling on consensus is required in today's turkiye. but it is quite difficult to achieve. mohammed: we have run out of

time. thanks so much to our guests. thank you also to you for watching. you can see the program any time by visiting our website at [indiscernible] . you can also join the conversation on twitter. goodbye for now.

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