president aragon. what does his reelection mean for turkiye and for the wider world? this is inside story. folly: welcome to the program. it went to a runoff after a

tight first round, but president erdogan has emerged the clear winner. after overcoming probably the biggest political challenge he has ever faced, he will hope his third term will further tighten his grip on power. opponents have expressed dismay, with the poll results starkly reflecting deep political divisions in the country. a key player between east and west, turkey's relations are complex, such as the nato member also being on good terms with russia. we will be exploring what his reelection means for the country shortly. reporter: now that he has been reelected, the next five years will be a defining moment for president erdogan and he will continue to face a wide range of issues. many experts expect a return to

economic issues. he will also need to rebuild entire cities devastated by the earthquake. something which will cost him $100 billion. to do that, he will have to build just with the united states and the european union. she is giving indications he is willing to mend fences. he wants stronger relations with the west in exchange for more financial support to be able to fix the economy and to rebuild the cities that were devastated by the earthquake. president erdogan told his people he is looking forward to moving forward and unifying everyone who voted for him or

for the opposition. we will have to wait and see on whether he will be able to deliver on all of the promises. gulen -- folly: let's take a closer look at the challenges he faces. turkey's economy is in crisis with its people struggling with the high cost of living. the turkish lira has lost 340% against the u.s. dollar. and inflation his running and more than 50%. critics blame him for refusing to raise interest rates. the president also faces the task of uniting the deeply polarized nation. the opposition has criticize his government on the stance on the syrian refugees. millions of people in the southwest of turkey are still living in makeshift homes after

two devastating earthquakes in february. he has promised to prioritize rebuilding in those areas. with his victory, turkiye's foreign policy is also in the spotlight. nato members are hoping khairat will allow them in the military lines. the country has not met all of turkeya's demands. turkeya as described as the bridge between europe and the middle east, by its relations with russia have unsung western powers. has close ties with moscow but also provides military aid to ukraine. its foreign policy has expanded its global influence. last year, they helped broker a deal that ended russia's blockade on the grain supplied's -- the place. let's bring in our guests. helin sari ertem, associate

professor of international relations at istanbul medeniyet university. ben aris, founder and editor-in-chief of bne intellinews. onur erim, political adviser and president of dragoman strategies. a warm welcome to you. thank you so much for joining us. in his victory speech, president erdogan called for unity. with 40% of turks voting for change, how is he going to unite such a polarized country? will he extend an olive branch to the opposition? >> his speech did start with expressions that he will need

everybody's support and everybody coming together to achieve the goals of the next century. as far as the numbers, to realize in the last two presidential elections this is not much difference except for maybe a decimal or two. gulen how is he going to bring the 48% of turks who do not vote for him on board? >> the first two times that there were no runoffs. he has been battling politically against everybody in turkiye.

they got together just to get rid of erdogan. she still in the first round was able to surpass kilicdaroglu. just over two million votes. i do not think you can call that polarization. most of the presidential races, and other countries, this would be constituted as a landslide if this was the united states. folly: what are your thoughts on this? do you share the point that this is not a polarized country and how does he unite turks today?

>> it is a polarized country unfortunately. turkey is not the only example in which polarization is getting higher and higher. we see the same trend in the united states and most of the european countries as well. actually people are trying to decide about their future way of living. in terms of this perspective, we see that turkish society is somehow split into two, one side is secular and liberal and the other side is quite conservative. we have seen a huge rise of turkish nationalism, especially in the last couple of weeks in the first and second rounds of presidential elections. president erdogan's campaign was

mainly based on nationalism. the narrative that erdogan is using is mainly taken its route from history, so it is mainly about the conservative past as well as a very turkish nationalist past. folly: i am going to allow you to respond to what she just said and also ask you about what president erdogan's policies will be during the -- toward the nationalist? >> his number one supporters are

the nationalists. she has been collaborating with them -- he has been collaborating with them for at least six or seven years and there are all the indications back he will continue. as i said, i think polarization is mistaken in turkiye as opposed to anywhere else. people here as soon as the elections are over, people are going about their ways. let's not mistake the wars in social media between the parts were the polarized parts with the regular public. more than half my family is extremely opposed to erdogan. a lot of my friends are. we have no problem.

i do not think it is the same thing. folly: been, do you expect a more conciliatory tone from president erdogan now that the election is over? will he be more focused on uniting the country? >> i do not think so. he is all about power. that was based in islam conservative values. i think it is better described as a divided country. half the country is looking east to the arab world and the other half is looking to europe. erdogan has led this conservative islamic nationalistic campaign whereas

the opposition, the republican people's party, it just the party of the founder of the modern state. he committed turkey to a liberal or -- liberal secular state. young professional liberals are looking to europe and many of them said if the country continues to go down this increasingly conservative path that they will leave. it is not polarized so much as divided between these two different ideas of where the country should go. the country just voted in erdogan which means it won't go down the conservative, religious a line. the reconciliation is trying to bring those two parts together. folly: two different ideas you say of where to take turkiye.

let me talk about the immediate domestic challenges that president erdogan faces and bad is of course the struggling turkish economy. what are we going to see in terms of economic policy? we -- will we see a u-turn on some of his controversial policies? >> one thing you have to give him is he is a leader that keeps a very good beat of the public. if he has to change things around, he will do it right away. it is no secret that the turkish economy has been under heavy fire, especially from the west. the thing is despite all of

this, despite the war next to us, despite the troubling economy in western europe and despite the fact that the united states is struggling financially, i think turkiye is holding its own pretty good. how long can we last? we will have to see. but she has definitely promised better days economically. folly: are we going to see him change his policy on these low interest rates? >> i do not think so. despite the very heavy media against him on this, there is actually a lot of papers coming out questioning what he was doing was wrong while everything was recent interest rates for

him to lower interest rates. this is a debatable issue. folly: let's hear from ben. will we see heem -- payment deviate from these policies on the economy? >> unorthodox is a massive understatement. he is convinced if you lower interest rates than you bring inflation down. it is the other way around. turkey has 50% inflation. we think it is much higher. the currency has gone from three laura to the dollar down to 20 now. analysts are saying the central bank is going to let go some of

the controls. there will be another 25% devaluation. the reserves have run out because they are trying to hold the turkish lira stable before the elections. this is all unsustainable. turkey is in an massive economic crisis already. folly: there are concerns that the turkish central bank cannot continue to prop up the turkish lira. president erdogan says he is the one who can deal with this crisis. do you believe that? >> the majority of the turkish society underlined their support for erdogan, that he is the one who will solve every kind of problem. we also have to understand that

most of the society understands the economy is bad, but at the same time he is the cure. the opposition could not change this idea around him. there is a huge trust around him as the strong demand. -- man. in some places the people are not suffering as much as people live in in big cities regarding high inflation and high brunt. his main support is coming from there. not the big cities. there will be problems, there will be hard times ahead of us.

everybody accepts that. the only difference is the majority who were supported erdogan, most of them think this is a kind of western game being played against turkiye. that high inflation is part of the anti-turkey rhetoric. president trump for example said he has the ability to play the turkish economy just with twitter. many people are thinking this is about responsibility of the west. folly: i wanted to talk about the syrian refugees. president erdogan has promised to send back one million syrian

refugees over the next few years. is this possible? >> he actually said he will set the stage for one million people to go back to syria. as it was just announced a couple of weeks before the elections, there was a collaboration made with qatar to build housing for a million refugees to go back to the safe part of syria. he never said the words he will send them back. he said he will set the stage. and make sure all the necessary things are done for them to go back willingly. folly: been, your thoughts about the syrian refugees?

>> he has been very pragmatic. the reason why europeans are happy is that they were paid in order for him to keep them. he has become transactional about why he can get out of it. she extracts concessions from europe in the form of cash. iran and saudi arabia are mending fences after nine years of non-diplomatic relations. the same thing with syria. it has just been admitted to the arab league.

i think he is going to be very careful. he definitely because of his relatively poor relations with europe in the sense that he has been trying to [indiscernible] but he is also looking to the middle east as well. folly: who has the upper hand now in the relationship between turkey and the european union? he is still interested in getting to the european union? >> they have been left in the waiting room since 1989 when the granted candidate status. i think it is clear. but the european union remains a major market and turkey is very interested in that. so he wants to maintain good relations. he is also interested in china

and russia. i think he seems -- sees himself in the middle of the spiderweb with good relations with the west and good relations with the east and with the middle east as well. folly: let me ask you about the east and west. he has one fought in nato and one foot towards russia. is this a position that is tenable? >> this will continue. it is a balancing act since the very beginning of the republic. especially in the last couple of years, we observed that he is going through a lot with the neighboring countries, including syria.

this will continue because it is quite beneficial for turkey. it is very important to improve turkeys soft power which was lost with the increase of the hard power. i also expect there will be a handshaking between erdogan and assad in syria. i think if erdogan cannot manage that the problem of the syrian refugees will be solved by sending them back. folly: one about the relationship with washington dc and nato? one of the points of tensions within nato was turkiye agreeing

with sweden to join the military alliance. do you see that happening and how does the relationship with president biden move forward? >> turkiye received just over $6 billion from the european union. in exchange, turkiye has spent more than $45 billion on the syrian refugees. to say that turkey is holding this against europe to get money is unjust. going back to nato, i do not know. nobody has really come up to date as to why president biden and trump in his last year was

so hostile against turkeya. nobody has really come up with an answer or explanation as to why turkey was not delivered after the price that she paid for. or nobody was able to explain why turkey was [indiscernible] without any reason and against all the contracts that has been signed. i think what happens next between the relationship with the turkish and americans depend on how the american government apps. folly: what about the ascension of sweden tomato? well -- of sweden to nato? >> it is no secret that these

are mostly political decisions. erdogan put in the beginning of straightforward statement out there that the internationally recognized organizations do something about it. if they continue to harbor terrorists, erdogan said he will not move. having said that, i understand these are political decisions more than anything else. folly: been, i will give you the last word. >> with the issue of sweden's membership of nato, turkey

rolled over and accepted finland right away. erdogan has made it clear that you need to lift the sanctions that were imposed on mouse five years ago and you need to extradite these guys we believe are terrorists. as for washington, the issue with the fighter jets has also been a thorn in the side.

it was scuffled because erdogan agreed to buy these antimissile systems from russia and the americans took great exception to that. it is a an example of erdogan play both sides and his desire to develop his own military capacity and not be totally dependent on nato. erdogan sits in the middle playing both every time. folly: we are going to have to leave it there. thank you so much to all three of you for joining us on inside story. thank you as well for watching. you can watch this program again any time by visiting our website at aljazeera.com.

you can join the conversation on twitter as well. thanks for watching. goodbye for now.