mohammed: the trial and conviction of senegal's opposition leader has sparked protests and riots in one of africa's most stable democracies. several people are dead. why has the unrest been so widespread, and is there a risk of more instability? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, and welcome to the program. i'm mohammed jamjoom. demonstrations broke out in senegal after a court sentenced opposition leader ousmane sonko

to two years in prison. he was convicted of corrupting the youth, but cleared of rape. the charges relate to an incident at a massage parlor in 2021. supporters say the violence across the country reflects widespread anger, particularly among unemployed young people, who feel ignored by the political elite. they say the case against sonko was politically motivated and part of a plot to stop him running for president next year. macky sall's government denies this and says senegal is facing an insurrection. it's promised to use all measures necessary to restore stability. nicholas hawk was at some of those protests on thursday and has this report from dakar. reporter: we're inside dakar university. and look at it now. there's sheer destruction everywhere across this university, but also across the country. banks have been looted, supermarkets have been destroyed, and the army has been called out here. inside the university, where there was heavy protest yesterday, students burnt down

the faculty of law. now that's more than a symbol, they say they don't trust the justice system of this country, following the verdict of ousmane sonko, and they say they'll continue to fight until he's illegible to run in the upcoming presidential elections, and that's why you have so much violence at the moment. that's what's at stake, it's these elections that are still nine months away. so, why now? well, one of the reasons there's so much tension is the intentions of president macky sall, will he or will he not run for a third mandate? and that uncertainty is fueling the violence here in senegal, a country that's not accustomed to such violence, a country known for its stability and democracy. but now, the military on the streets, protecting key areas, people are scared, they're at home.

there's a saying in the local senegalese language that the senegalese do not like the sight of blood, but there's been so much blood being poured. and so, now, religious leaders are involved in trying to negotiate a way out of this political crisis. they'll be meeting with opposition leader ousmane sonko, but also members of the government to find an end to the violence. nicholas hawk, al jazeera, for "inside story." mohammed: the west african country with a population of 17 million won independence from france in 1960. it has good relations with the u.s. and eu as well as china and has long been seen as a model of stability and democracy in a volatile region. the current unrest stems from domestic political rivalry. president macky sall was elected in 2012 and is due to step down next year, but he argues that he could run again because of changes to the constitution in 2016, which shortened the presidential term. former tax inspector ousmane sonko is popular among

unemployed young people and supporters say he's being targeted by political rivals, including sall. sonko's lawyer says the jail term jeopardizes his chance of running for office in 2024. ♪ all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. in london, mucahid durmaz, who is an analyst with verisk maplecroft global risk intelligence consultancy. in paris, marie-roger biloa, the chairwoman and ceo of the africa international media group. and in dakar, borso tall, a freelance journalist who has reported extensively on senegal's political and social tensions. a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on "inside story." borso, let me start with you today. why has the unrest thus far in senegal been so widespread? >> thank you for having me. the widespread news around sonko's case, or this case of

rape and sexual assault overall, has reached this far simply because it's quite opposite of what senegal has always been known for, which means a peaceful country, stable in west africa, and respectful of all international laws. so, to come to this state at which right now the population is extremely angry at the government for simply having applied -- and i will explain later -- the law over a rape case. that is the reason why everything is under chaos right now. people are very angry and against the decision made by the justice system to decide over a rape case so far. mohammed: marie-roger, let me get your perspective on this. do you believe that there's a risk for more instability?

do you think that these protests will spread, that people will get angrier? >> so, you know, what we've been seeing so far is that, as said before, senegal has been trying to show a peaceful and democratic figure, and and if the government has always responsibility when they struggle, but i think this time around, mr. ousmane sonko has been calling for riots and telling his supporters to go to the presidency and overthrow mr. macky sall. and this is quite a difference with other politicians, even from the opposition. i remember that a couple of years ago, there were situations where other candidates running

to be president had been excluded from running. i think of abdul -- the khalifa sall. and they found that situation very unfair to them, but they didn't call for violence. so this is a special case where you have somebody who's been condoning uprisings, calling for destruction, calling for -- and since he entered the game. and i would also say that they are really cracking down on him more severely than on others, because he has opted for confrontation, for defying institutions.

so we are all very worried by the situation right now. because, until now, he has failed to call on his supporters to stop violence and to keep quiet. this is very necessary on his part. mohammed: supporters of ousmane sonko of course are angry. they have been denouncing the charges against the opposition leader. they have accused president macky sall of using the justice system to eliminate political opponents. how much of that sentiment is fueling all of this? >> well, yeah, just to give a bit of context, picking up on the point that raised my brow, yes, senegal is often praised in the global politics as a stable democracy, as a beacon of stability. but that has not been translated

to the socioeconomical conditions of the senegalese people. and so far, there are significant concerns about increasing authorities, authoritarianism excessive use of force, police force that we've seen on the streets of dakar, erosion of judicial independence, democratic backsliding. these are serious concerns, because, you know, over the years since 2021, we've seen protests, anti-government protests becoming more and more popular because sonko represents a large part of senegal's youthful population that have not benefited from the economic boom that the country has seen over the years. right? so high gdp growth and the oil and gas reserves. they have not significantly benefited from this, from these developments. and then they accuse the government, the presidency itself or failing to address the widespread socio-economic issues

that large parts of society are dealing with, especially in urban areas that we see. so what happens is that sonko steps in, and he's a pan-african, and targets the political elite very harshly, fights against the corruption since 2016. since he was a tax inspector. and questioned the significant french influence of paris and joys on the country's economy and politics. so in that sense, the widespread protests are not surprising, because the elimination of sonko from the election in 2024 will likely increase this sense of disenfranchisement. mohammed: i'm going to get back to you in a minute about the the anti-fringe sentiment that you were just referring to. but first, i want to go to borso again.

borso, so let's talk about another angle to all this that's being discussed. are some of the tensions that we are witnessing now a result of the fact that it's really unclear at this stage if president sall intends to seek a third term as president? >> well, that is the root of this whole situation. when we look at the patterns, like marie-roger mentioned earlier, with the cases at the time before sonko arrived at the political scene in senegal, there was a question of third term. the first one was in 2000, putting an end to 40 years of state power for the socialist party. so, in 2000, abdullah came into power, did his two terms to make it short. in 2012, macky sall came into

power on the basis that abdullah will never run for a third term. so that was the number one reason why people voted for macky sall and against abdullah. and now what we're seeing is a repetition of those issues. macky sall, who hasn't said a word yet official word about him willing to run, but everything around it looks like it, and even his allies in his political party have already stated that he is their candidate for 2024. so having that in mind, the population of senegal is not willing to repeat the same mistakes of the past, meaning refusing the last leader a third term and now accepting it for macky sall, and that is the main issue that is like the cause of all this, refusing a third term as a tradition for the past few presidential candidates and now having to face it with violence,

that is the major difference, and having to face it with someone who is not willing to let go. sonko is not willing to let go, and he's ready to use violence in order to have the constitution respected. meaning no more than two consecutive terms. but besides that, there's also the question of women's rights. and i would like to come back to that. mohammed: yeah. i will get back to you on that in just a couple of minutes. first i want to ask marie-roger to expand a little bit on the discussion we were just having with regards to a potential third term for president sall. president sall has said that he believes he can run again for a third term because of changes that were made to the constitution in 2016, which shortened the presidential term. marie-roger, from your point of view, is this a valid argument? can this actually be done? >> you know, as explained

before, previously, right now, the situation in senegal is very particular, because president macky sall vowed not to run again. not to seek a third time. there are videos recalling that, there are tweets he made where he called for demonstrations, peaceful demonstration, i must say, and he was very much against a third term. so that's why the senegalese are very much -- they are upset and they don't like that issue. so we understand that. but the point is, when you look at the story in africa right now, you know, people who don't -- residents who don't seek the third terms are the exceptions.

so what i mean is, we all want fresh air, fresh blood, new ideas. we want for new governments to come in so that you have a renewal of everything. new energy. and that's what we are fighting for. but i don't believe it's something we have to die for. because when you look at the situation right now, as i said, politics -- who are really benefiting for certain terms, not the population, only people who want power. and also you see the judgment is very different, according to the situation. you say rwanda's president has organized for him to stay maybe 20 years more. nobody -- you don't hear

opposition very much. international opposition. even in africa, you don't hear that. mohammed: i'm sorry to interrupt you. i just want to go back to mucahid about a point that he was making a moment ago. you were speaking specifically about anti-french sentiment. i believe you said among supporters of mr. sonko. could you expand on that and talk about, from your perspective, why that might be driving whether it's his popularity or some of the protests? >> well, yeah, i mean, historically, the french hold significant economic and political influence in the country, as a formal colonizer. and i think, if i'm not mistaken, since 2019, france was the largest source of foreign direct investment in senegal since it was taken over by china at the moment. so it holds a significant power in the country specifically.

and in the context of this, this protest, what's happening, is that especially the protests that we saw in 2021 a lot of protesters looted the french businesses across the country, especially in dhakar, because they claim that the source of the issues that they're having with the corruption, the social economic inequalities, these are the issues related. the french influence in the country. so there is this perception in light of anti french sentiment across different parts of west africa, is that the french are seriously involved in senegalese politics and then they're the ones that pulling the strings. -- that are pulling the strings. and sonko representing a pan-african stance and his supporters align with that sentiment, as well, saying that we don't want france involved in our in our politics as well,

that's why we saw that the protesters attack the french businesses in 2021. and in the future, if the protests continue, we might be able to see the same scenes again more. mohammed: borso, i want to get back to a point that you were trying to make a moment ago, the question i have, women's rights groups in senegal have expressed concern that the sonko rape trial has set back women's rights in the country. what was it about the case that has so dismayed feminine and -- feminists and advocates for women's rights in senegal? >> women have been used for this case that has underlying political matters, and that's their loss. the women lose in this process, and that's where the whole problem comes with putting a cloud over all the fight that women have gone through in order to have these laws applied and respected in the country. so here we have a man accused of rape, but because there is no proof and because of so many

issues attached to politics over the case of rape itself, people now will just not give any attention to the real cases of sexual assault, and that brings together gender issues, it brings all together just issues that women will go through when it comes time for them to stand up and talk about rape cases. so it's just a cloud over politics that has been clouding the gender issues and have been clouding the question of rape and how far women have come to fight for their rights. mohammed: so marie-roger, let me ask you, if tensions continue to escalate in senegal, what are the concrete steps that can be taken to try to calm things down? >> what i think in this particular situation, both, i would say both, part the the

public authority and part ousmane and his supporters are responsible of what's happening. -- for what's happening. so i think and i insist on that. i think ousmane sonko should call on his supporters and ask them to stop rioting, stop violence. he's the one who has leverage on them. they will listen to him and not to the government obviously. so to show that he's a responsible man, i think he should do that. because at the end of the day, it's all about politics, and we -- they are there to ensure that people are not being killed, and especially young people. and just because because they want power, that's what it's all about. it's very important that he comes out and he says, please, let's calm down. we will work out this issue

politically. because there are a lot of things which can be done from now, but first, the violence should stop. mohammed: there is some question about what the ramifications of this verdict will be when it comes to mr. sonko's political future. from your vantage point, does the sentence against mr. sonko disqualify him as a presidential candidate in 2024, can he still run? and also, can the sentence be appealed, or is this judgment final? >> well, he will likely be eliminated from the race, unless there's a successful appeal by him. but that's very unlikely, because the court in separate cases refused his appeal. so he will most likely be eliminated from the race and

taken behind bars. and in terms of the imprisonment, it's two years. considering how young sonko i and his galvanized support from the public, i do not foresee that this is the end of sonko's political future. he will definitely remain a significant actor in the senegalese politics moving forward. but there are two different, specifically in the context of protests, there are two different scenarios -- either sall will very harshly, repressively squash the protest, take sonko behind bars, and we'll go ahead with the third term, that means increasing authoritarianism in the country, or, the second second scenario is following the strong and powerful public pushback. that will be a political negotiation between the different sides to find a

peaceful solution. and maybe one last point, in terms of the possibility of a military coup, because we heard over the last few days, i do not foresee any possibility of the military coup because senegal has a relatively functioning democracy. diverse range of political parties. civil society, and then they have influential social leaders, religious leaders, they usually step in to mediate the political disputes -- between the politicians. so yes, it will definitely be turbulent times for senegal. but i do not foresee military intervention at this point. mohammed: borso, i know that there are a lot of issues at play when it comes to what's going on in senegal right now. and also we just have about two minutes left, but i want to ask you if one of the things young people are taking away from this moment is if young people in senegal are seeing this moment as their opportunity to put pressure on the government and address the issues that are

impacting them the most. >> very simply put, the young people do not want a third term for president macky sall. and they do not want to see what they call their last chance for their hopes and dreams to come to pass just disappear. with sonko. simply put, they don't want the third term. they do not want sonko to be put in jail because there is a history of candidates being put aside because the president doesn't want them to run for president. that's it. mohammed: we have less than a minute. marie-roger, if macky sall does announce that he will seek a third term, will more people come out into the streets? do you believe that will be the case? >> probably be a bit out -- probably. a lot of people don't like the idea. but some also do like the idea, we should say that, too.

because i met some. so the point is, at the end of the day, he has enough arguments, legal arguments, because he said he has consulted this and that, the supreme court says he can run, i think what people can do is to ensure that the election is free and fair, that he can run, but he might not win. but nobody should die for it right now. mohammed: all right. well, we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guests, mucahid durmaz, marie-roger biloa, and borso tall. and thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from the whole team here, bye for now. thank you. ♪

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