>> once a firm allies, now fragile partners, a visit by the united it's top diplomat to saudi arabia is more challenging than in the past. it is putting strains on american influence in the middle east, can antony blinken mend its fraying ties? ♪ >> welcome to the program, top level diplomacy often involves tricky footwear, but it really

comes much trickier than turning antony blinken's visit to saudi arabia. in the few months since his last visit, the geopolitical lens get has altered. saudi's restoration of ties with iran by china have surprised the u.s.. after the rises because. blinken will meet ministers from other gulf states to beard it is that a time of intensified aggression against palestinians under the new far right government in israel that he hoped to bring closer to saudi arabia. we will be discussing his trip and what it hopes to achieve with our guests. this report. >> a meeting seemingly taste on shared commitments and common interest, but the reality is relations with the u.s. and saudi arabia are strained. the first meeting only lasted an hour and 40 minutes. even though he was secretary of state antony blinken had a lot

of ground to cover with the saudi crown prince. tehran has reopened its embassy in riyadh, seven years after it was closed. the restoration of the saudi rations -- relations with iran was brokered by china. saudi arabia's mohammad bin salman is making moves. it is not in the u.s. is favor. the trip aimed to counter asians influence in the region and that of moscow. u.s. president joe biden has vowed to not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by china, russia or iran. u.s. hopes of a global boost in oil supply have and sunk by saudi cuts announced this week. washington is desperate for lower fuel prices that have risen during the war in ukraine and are a big issue with u.s. voters. blinken hopes to get his host to

establish diplomatic relations with israel despite its far right government intensifying violence against palestinians and running a rampant program of illegal sentiment -- settlement expansion in the occupied west bank. >> the united states has a real national security interest in promoting normalization between israel and saudi arabia. [applause] we believe that we can and we must play a role in advancing it. we have no illusions this can be done quickly or easily. but we remain committed to working toward that outcome. >> saudi u.s. relations have been hit by the kingdoms role in the war and torture and murder of a journalist. as it forges ahead with new alliances, can the u.s. hold onto the power and influence it

had traditionally yielded in the middle east? >> for more on this, i am joined by our guests. the saudi affairs -- in washington dc, is hillary man s, also a former white house national security official and former u.s. diplomat. in tehran is the head of american studies to permit at the faculty of world studies at the university of tehran. a warm welcome to you all. would like to begin in washington dc with hillary. if the polls are to believe -- are to be believed that kennedy is to be a threat, he tweeted about the saudi iran deal that

china has now replaced the u.s. over the past decade. america has bombed and china has built. do you think that china is a threat to u.s. diplomatic supremacy? >> certainly for it to u.s. dominance in the region. the has been clear for many years and has accelerated under the biden administration and the administration is concerned about that. they are acting on that. they came into office declaring that he was going to treat saudi arabia as the pariah they are. he was going to refuse to deal with the crown prince and only deign himself to deal with saudi arabia's king. it has been humiliating reversal in u.s. policy. recognizing that they need the saudi's, not necessarily only to achieve goals but to prevent the saudi's from undermining the biden administration policy agenda as well as its mastic politics going into the 2024

election year. >> there is still a relationship between the u.s. and saudi arabia, has not fallen apart completely yet. it is very tense. more tense than it has been for a while. >> firstly, good day to you can about your viewers and all of your guests. i agree there is a lot of tension, there needs to be a lot of water under the bridge. but i think we need to contextualize the tension. i echo what hilary said, washington, dc, i think the fiery rhetoric that biden himself and the administration used in their elections has amplified the tensions. however, notwithstanding the tensions and rhetorical jostling taking place, believe that there

is still a strong relationship between the u.s. and saudi arabia. the symbolism has decreased, but i think the strategy has been there. i don't see it going anywhere soon. in regards to china, and the aspect of -- is it replacing saudi arabia -- is it replacing the united states? for the saudi lens, it is viewing the world in a much more multipolar fashion. i think it is an asymmetric multipolar fashion. i think saudi arabia is viewing the u.s. not as a necessity, as it used to be before, it is a strong desire and preference. this is now the transition of for change within the relationship. it is causing inevitable tensions. i don't want to take the entire time.

a lot of people have amplified and exaggerated the tensions between saudi arabia, that this has been the highest level of tensions since 1973 arab israeli war. i would disagree with that. the tensions are significant, but unfortunately within the u.s., relationship with saudi arabia, eight is embedded with disagreement and turbulence, it has always had disagreements. but somehow there are strategic mechanisms that enable them to overcome the challenges. >> may i ask one thing? i don't want to take the time for my colleague in iran. in terms of the state of u.s. savvy -- u.s. saudi relations, i worked at the white house. i was on the national security council in the bush administration after 9/11. u.s. saudi relations after 9/11

were not as bad as they are today. i worked and with president bush to organize a trip by the then saudi king to his ranch in texas. the relations were not nearly as that on a personal level or country to country level. we are in a state today, even compared to a prior time. >> the view from tehran seems to be that the u.s. is an untrustworthy partner, that perhaps china is more similar to deal with. this is echoed in the breaking of the jcpoa. iran stuck to the guns with it and did everything they needed to do. this comes as no surprise to tehran, surely. >> no it doesn't. everybody in iran welcomes the normalization of relations between iran and saudi arabia.

what the u.s. wants from saudi arabia is to demonize iran, and to confront iran, to spend pectoral -- petrol dollars against iran. it is not good for the saudi's. they want the saudi's to reduce the price, why should you do that? it is not reasonable, or sell oil at a higher price, you get richer, you don't look at the market, not the demands from a politician in washington that is running for president. they want to make sure the saudi's are confronting china and russia. that is also not good for the saudi's. when you look at the demands that mr. blinken has, you realize that the patients in

saudi arabia is running out and it is good for iran. >> i want to bring you in here. it has always been said this was a china brokered deal between saudi arabia and iran. but clearly that is not the truth. both sides had something to gain from this. what does saudi arabia gain from normalizing relations with iran? what was the driving force? >> firstly i think both saudi arabia and iran realize that confrontation has not been fruitful. there was no clear endgame to the confrontation and relationship of antagonism. i think they needed to move forward. thankfully they made -- there was enough wealth to overcome these telling just what they need to iron out some of the tricky issues. what is driving saudi arabia mostly, and what is driving

saudi arabia foreign policy in general, is the fact that they have in norma's and lofty -- enormous and lofty economic product they want to achieve. it understands that it cannot achieve these economic goals without stable region. what is taking place and what is worth noting is that there is an aspect of regionalization that has been taking place. there is a regional agency that has taken place that this is what the saudi arabian normalization has illustrated, this is a region that is attempting to take responsibility for solving its own issues. it won't be easy but at least they are going to discuss their problems and cooperation within a framework. what is going to make this rapprochement is the economic

factor to regionalization. that is a core bedrock, a foundation or pillar of current saudi foreign policy. both regional and international. >> hilary, it is actually extraordinary that you have the top diplomat of the u.s. coming to saudi arabia on the back foot. he is coming to try and make relations not get any worse. not trying to improve them, but not make them get any worse. there is history to this. the saudi's have often had a better relationship with republicans than they have with democrats. does that play into this? >> i think it does. i want to echo my colleague's comments saudi arabia, i agree in terms of what the saudi's are looking for in terms of stability in the region how important that is to their economic future. unfortunately how much of that collides with how american administrations perceive their role in the middle east and what they want from the middle east.

the difference between republicans and democrats is important. historically the saudi royal family has had an excellent relation with the republican party. worked in the first bush white house in 1990 and 1991, the saudi ambassador was in the oval office every single day. that relationship was incredibly close. even after 9/11, the relationship between the saudi royal family and the bush administration was also very close. fast-forward to a couple of years ago, the saudi relationship with the trump administration was also very close. notwithstanding the fact that president trump fused to come to saudi arabia's defense when their oil facilities were attacked in 2019. the relationship there is very close and we see the saudi involvement in the u.s. golf sport this week dramatically

increasing its role. that also has ties to the republican party in the u.s. and that is what i would think is the driving force for secretary of state when given coming to saudi arabia is to try to get the saudi's to do no harm to -- but much more importantly to try to get them to not be as involved in u.s. politics. the biting administration is concerned that in a swing states like florida, saudi money and involvement could push things, not tremendously, but just enough to give either candidate trump or candidate desantis the florida governor and edge in the 2024 election. >> is there an opportunity for tehran? there is a retooling of the

relationship between saudi arabia and the u.s.. does that give tehran an opportunity to try and get back to the jcpoa are anyway for a deal between iran and the u.s.? >> iran has been trying to have the u.s. come back. iran has never left the agreement, it is the u.s. that needs to come back to the agreement. the biting administration could return to the agreement on the first day of the biden presidency. trump left the agreement issuing a executive order. the next president and the american system can nullify the revia's president executive orders. biden did that. the biden administration decided not to do the same for the

nuclear agreement, they could return to the agreement and give iran two or three months to come back to the full compliance that iran was engaging in before trump left. they decided not to do that, it has been more than two years since the biden administration office. and they come up with different excuses every day. the last thing they are saying is because of a demonstration and iran, they do not want to go back to the agreement, it is not on their agenda. this is what the spokesman at that national security council said last week. it has been more than six months since we haven't had any demonstrations. whether we are going to have the agreement or not is a decision that needs to be made in washington, the administration in tehran has been trying to

make sure the facilities and conditions are right for the u.s. to return. it is a decision they have to make. >> was this a strategic blunder on behalf of the biden administration, that it did not go back to the jcpoa? the opportunity was right whether -- was right there. that is something that perhaps the arab world has looked at and thinks that america is not as powerful as we thought it was. was this a strategic blunder? >> absolutely, i think it was the most important strategic blunder the biden administration has committed. it sunk their foreign policy agenda from the beginning. because not only is the u.s. now looked at in the region as not willing to militarily come to defend any of our allies, but we can't even keep an agreement, an agreement that was working and in everybody's interest.

it was a very serious low for the biting administration not to return like they did to the paris environmental accord, to that agreement. i do not think they can recover, i think the saudi's are betting on that. it will take everything the biden administration has to restore credibility in the middle east while fighting with russia over ukraine, while fighting with china over taiwan, it is not something the administer she can do as it heads into a presidential campaign with republicans putting all of themselves into the race of president. i think the saudi's have correctly assessed that. >> do you think it was a strategic blunder? >> i will not go into american politics, i will stick to my politics. with the theme of meddling etc.. i will not meddle in my iranian

colleagues and american colleagues terrains. i think the -- when it comes to the saudi perception of the jcpoa, there is a lot of things they had issues with. with the jcpoa, it was mostly viewed as an obama legacy, trying to reproach iran was something that him at the cost of the relations with the americans main partners in saudi arabia and others. it is precisely this issue of going back into the jcpoa, it is precisely the reason why there was a saudi arabian rapprochement and a preference to have the umbrella of china. i think the region has had enough of waiting on what is going to happen and being susceptible to the politics in other western capitals.

this is the reason why there was a regional agency, we are not going to allow ourselves to be a platform or experiment for others. and to express their own politics upon us. this is nothing that was very much agreed-upon entirely in the last arab summit in saudi arabia. they all agreed upon that, they are not going to be a region where other superpowers can compete, they have their own agency and own will. when it comes to other issues of dealing with this, with the reluctance he -- reluctance he -- i do not think it began with the trump administration or the biden administration. think the aspect of american credibility unfortunately has

been in the making for a few decades. i think the war in iraq did not help in 2003, the other aspects that have led to misperceptions. one of the reasons why there is a constant misperception or disappointment and expectations is because the language that we use is very much misleading. one of the terms that we use is alliances. saudi arabia and the u.s. are not military allies. they are partners. israel and u.s. are not military allies. and therefore the notion of alliances being taken back and forth and used too lightly and my opinion, that is one of the reasons why there is a lot of missed expectations. >> $3.5 billion in military aid from the u.s. suggests they are

much more than just partners. there is an alliance. hillary, i want to ask you about israel. and legal terms, i will give you that. >> when it comes to israel, the americans have bitten off a lot more than they can chew. the abraham accords, which israel sees is one of its biggest successes, they have not managed to get saudi arabia. saudi arabia is being pressured by the americans to join those of courts, they are simply not doing it when it comes to syria, the emergence had problems. when comes to the region, the americans are too involved into many different things. there was not a clear strategy. that has not helped. >> no it hasn't, the role of israel is very important. you have not only a saudi government that is closer historically to today with the

republicans, but you also have in israel, the prime minister is close with republicans be his chief advisor was a registered public and activist in the u.s. a before he moved to israel. netanyahu remained and the crown prince have deep ties personally to active candidates and the u.s. campaign. the idea that the saudi's are going to make peace with israel under the biting administration is almost farcical. the biting administration sees not that they are going to get an amazing victory with the saudi's to make peace with israel, they are trying to prevent the saudi's from moving -- from working with israel to undermined the biting administration in particular. for the white house here, it is all about politics and personal

politics for president biden. >> do you think that the americans simply have a scattergun approach when it comes to middle east diplomacy and this is coming back to haunt them? >> the united states is a country in decline. the fact that the saudi's and iranians are signing agreements in beijing is a sign of that. the decline will continue. with the u.s. in regards to russia it will hurt the u.s. in the long run. the confrontation with china is going to hurt them in the long run. the u.s. used to be a superpower, they need to understand how they can engage in a soft landing to become a normal country. unfortunately this is not what we see in washington. what we see is the continuation

of promises. >> i am going to have to stop you there. have a minute and 30 seconds left. very quickly, is the u.s. in decline? >> i think it is perceived as so. i don't think the u.s. is perceived to be in decline, there are other options. that is what saudi arabia is viewing the world us. in my open, saudi arabia views the world in an asymmetrical -- asymmetric multipolar world. >> i want to come to hillary. we are running out of time. i do apologize. is the u.s. in decline? >> without a doubt, in saudi arabia it has been decades in the making, the iraq war was the big push for the united states off the cliff in the middle east and we are seeing the

ramifications of that to this day. >> i want to thank all of our guests. i want to thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera.com. go to our facebook page for further discussion. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. goodbye for now.

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