>> there are three things in demography. births, deaths and migration. >> more and more older folks. and more and more younger ones too. we have a problem. how can we solve it? ♪ ♪ >> late last year, the world population hit 8 billion. that is one billion more people on earth than there were in 2010. and we are rapidly heading for the 9th billion. but at the same time, -- we are in a ferlity crisi so how ithis possie?

let's talk about the basics first. >> there are three things in demography -- there is births, deaths and migration. i think deaths is the least interesting part of the story. i mean, even india now has a life expectancy that is pretty much close to 70. we are all getting to the point where most people don't die young. host: dr. morland argues that the balance of births, deaths and migrations is the key to understanding how some countries become superpowers, while others fall behind. and these forces that shaped our past and present will also shape our future. he talks about three demographic eras. >> premodern demography is: breeding like rabbits and dying like flies. very, very high fertility rates. the average woman ving 6-7-8 children. i thought of them dying before they reach thege of one, prably twohirds die before they reach the age of 30, small

population. growing in the good years, falling back in the bad. host: population remained mostly in balance, but it came at a great human cost. let's see how the world's health and wealth have changed since 1800. on the left is the life expectancy, and on the bottom , income levels. each dot represents a country. its size represents the population, and the color, the continent. as you see, everybody is poor and sick. life expectancy is lower than 40. the uk and the netherlands are slightly better off. with the industrial revolution, the west became much wealthier and healthier, while living conditions in the regions it colonized in africa and asia remained poor. now industrial countries have entered the modern demographic era, where the fertility and mortality rates are similar. here we see the dramatic effects of the first and second world war. we are now in the post-war era.

the inequalities between the nations have never been this large. but as the former colonies in africa and aisia become independent, first they become healthier, and rapidly wealthier. and this is where we are today. the asian giants have been going through the modern demographic era since the 1960's, and countries like india and indonesia are already reaching its late stages. but for this region here, africa, the demographic trend is more like the early stages of the modern era. high fertility, and ever decreasing child mortality rates. that is why sub-saharan africa is now leading the global population growth. that was once led by the asian countries in the last few decades. and today, we are seeing the geopolitical consequences of that demographic shift. the economic axis of the world moved towards asia. but their fertility rates are also slowly declining. china, one of the biggest

contributors to global economic and demographic growth in the last few decades, saw its population decrease in 2022 for the first time in 60 years. india is going to keep growing, and already surpassed china in 2023. but in a few decades its , population will also start decreasing. while the african population represented 7% of the world in the early 1900s, by the end of this century, it will more likely be 37%. so, africa is the future. whether or not we will see a shift in the geopolitical power dynamics like we have seen with the asian giants is yet to be seen. but lydia zigomo from the united nations population fund is very hopeful for the future of sub-saharan africa, where almost half of the population is under 15 years old.

>> they can provide opportunities for a better life for everybody. because let's remember that it's in these youth that we get much of the innovation and the ideas, and they are more able to move forward in the type of digital economies that we are seeing emerging. host: but according to the un, the right education and access to family planning is crucial for this to happen. women's reproductive rights are human rights and play an essential role for healthy family planning and women's participation in the workforce. some countries went off track with policies and forced their citizens to accept the family planning of the state. for example, china's one-child policy resulted in a gender imbalance, where there are more men than women. in peru, during the 1990s, more than a quarter of a million poor indigenous women were forcibly sterilised.

and in india, an astonishing 6.2 million poor men were forcibly sterilised in the 1970s, with at least 2,000 dying in botched operations. that is why experts are urging the promotion of voluntary family planning and women's reproductive rights instead of state interventions. and there is still a long way to go to close the gender gap. a study in 2019 owed that even in the most developed european countries like denmark, women experience a sharp drop in earnings after having their first child, while men are essentially unaffected. that is why increasingly more women prefer not to have children and focus on their careers, because they alone, for the most part, bear the consequences of raising children. >> we're now moving into an interesting phase. where what really matters is not your material conditions. it's going to be values, religion, and traditions in a postmodern environment. the urban liberal types are

dying out, and are being replaced by rapidly growing communities which are illiberal and want very different lifestyles. host: take the amish communities in the us. this pacifist, traditionalist community has had roughly 6 children per woman since the early 1900's. and if they maintain that rate for another 200 years, their number would be larger than the current population of the us. or the ultra-orthodox in israel, whose population is expected to increase from 14% in 2015 to 40% in 2065. despite sub-saharan africas' and some religious groups' rapid growth, the un predicts that the world's population will reach its apex -- around 10 to 11 billion people -- and then it will start to decrease. then how our growth-based economies will cope with a declining population is an uncertainty.

but what is certain is that the study of human population will keep giving us important information to understand our past, present and future. ♪ [singing] ♪ >> a morning tinged with nostalgia. a song from the 1960's is a big hit here. it is mainly older people who come here to get some fresh air and exercise, or just hang out with friends. the park is an oasis in the western city of pune, once known as a “pensioners' paradise” because of its cool climate and slow pace of life. >> but that has changed. sweeping social shifts across the country have led to a massive increase in the city's population and traffic. as families become smaller and

children move away for work, mthe question of who will take care of indiurgent.wing elderly pomany are learning to navigate new realities. this charitable old age home was founded during britain's colonial rule. it offers free food and shelter to the poor and the destitute. residents can chip in to help prepare meals. shobha gawande, a former teacher from mumbai, moved here after her husband died, rather than rely on her siblings. she's 74 years old. >> i was growing old and i realized it's difficult to take care of elderly people. i heard someone once say that old people are like a dustbin. i didn't want to become a dustbin in someone else's home i didn't want to be a burden. >> gawande has to adhere to a strict routine here.

the day begins with group prayers. it's followed by a common breakfast with all the residents, the majority of them are women. on the menu today is a local rice dish with spices. she also has to share a room with six other women. >> i've learned to adapt. when i came here and had to share a room with several women, i made up my mind that i would get along with them. many of them don't read the newspapers, so i share with them daily news that i find important. >> gawande has pared down her belongings to the bare necessities. but, she does have some old photos from her past life in mumbai. this is bobby. he was like our child. we didn't have children, we took care of him like our own. >> gawande, together with her husband, tutored school

children in their home for decades, managing to make a living. but, she doesn't get a pension and says she never thought of saving for her old a. >> sometimes when i feel lonely, all the memories of my earlier life come rushing back and i get lost in them. but then i come back to the present and tell myself this is where i'm going to spend the rest of my life. >> the challenges of ageing are especially visible on the streets. reports suggest old age poverty is a major issue that is insufficiently addressed by government policies. india's vast informal workforce includes millions of people over the age of 60 who continue to work but have little in the way of income security, savings or a safety net, making them particularly vulnerable. the future is a concern for india's middle classes as well. many of their children migrate abroad for work.

here, a private initiative gets elderly people together in the evenings to break the loneliness and isolation they face. in recent years, social taboos around living in retirement communities have faded. it's led to a boom in construction of senior living facilities. developments like this one. built atop a mountain. malati lele moved into her own apartment here five years ago. she's 87 years old and prizes her independence. her son, a management professor, gave up his job abroad to keep her company. he has his own apartment in the same building. >> this is a totally beautiful place. it looks like a resort. it's not an old age home at all, it's like enriched living for the old people. >> the apartments cost the equivalent of about 7,500 euros. monthly services amount to about 285 euros. there are sliding bathroom windows in case the door needs

to be opened, bars to hold on to , and an emergency bell in the bathroom that connects to the reception. lele's favorite spot is at the window in the afternoon. the place is located amid a forest. right in front of her balcony, another senior living development is coming up. >> when i moved in, construction was just starting, i had a lovely view. but now it's gone. you can't have everything after all. [laughs] >> but, most things are available here, lele eats in the canteen, a local meal called a “thali” which includes a variety of vegetables and lentils. after lunch, there's plenty of space on the premises for residents to stretch their legs. and, no shortage of options to pass the time. shashank paranjpaye's company designed and built the development. it's one of the earliest players in the senior living market in india. with more than 170 million

people projected to cross the age of 60 in a few years, paranjapye expects continued demand, especially after the covid pandemic. >> demand is huge. covid really changed of the paradigms. those senior citizens who were able-bodied and not keen to move into such facilities, in covid period they were left high and dry. liberty could come to help them. projects like athashri you get everything at doorstep. >> back at the old age home, it's time for the next activity, shobha gawande is learning how to use the computer to keep digital records in the library. then it's on to the next class, a special yoga session for the women. gawande says her packed day keeps her busy, and fit.

>> and, there's little doubt and, there's little doubt that it helps lifts spirits here as well. ♪ what was that again? >> let's remember that it is these youth that will get much of the innovation, the ideas, and they are more able to actually move forward in the type of digital economies that we are seeing emerging. >> workshops like this may typically still be a man's world, b shanaaz eendi's i differen the south african business owner runs a marine engineering company that also trains women, like 26-year-old jessi. >> she comes here to do her practical work, so she gets on-hand training when it comes to welding. and she is currently busy welding a frame for gas cages that we are busy making. >> being all women-owned is part of what makes this

business special. a few years ago, shanaaz and her sisters shameegah and anekha took it over from their parents. all three of them used to work in the financial sector. their company services and repairs ships for major clients. when they started out, the sisters lacked self-confidence. but meeting with a business coach changed everything. >> we were telling her, you know, we are three females and we inherited our roles and probably for 30 minutes of this whining -- [laughs] she sat and she looked at us and she said, ladies, you don't understand what you actually have. you don't know the potential that you are sitting with and the company that you have got. you've never inherited the role, you were actually born into the role. and, like, within an instant our whole mindset changed. every time i came from a

session from there, you just feel lighter and you know you can just take on the world. >> thanks to the encouragement of this woman here naadiya , moosajee. for 17 years, she's been coaching women in s.t.e.m. and teaching them how to network. their biggest hurdle -- >> it is definitely the patriarchy. when women go into corporate, you know, they're usually paid less than their male counterparts. when they become entrepreneurs, they raise less money. in fact, in 2022, only 2% of all the venture capital that came into the african continent went into the hands of female founders. so, we're being paid less, we raise less, but we are still building businesses, and we are doing more than everybody else. >> a few weeks ago, naadiya moosajee and her business partner opened africa's first co-working hub for women in stem -- complete with a children's playroom. at this event, participants are trying to raise venture capital

for their startups. [chatter] >> the problem is that women are overly-mentored and underly funded, right? so stop mentoring us. actually give us contracts, let us work in your companies. give the contracts to a women-owned companies, because then you create sustainable business. because what we're doing right now is: we're sugar-coating, we're window-dressing, we're gender-washing in a lot of cases. >> s.t.e.m. stands for science, technology, engineering and mathematics. the organization girlhype wants to encourage more women to enter these fields. its founder, baratang miya, has been teaching girls to code for 20 years. she also lends a helping hand in other areas. her daughter thoko now runs the coding classes. they've already reached more than a million girls through their programs. >> every girl

that has gone through girlhype now should be able to decide: i want to be in tech, yes, and where and how. but at the same time, even if there is patriarchy it shouldn't wobble them. because we have support. >> that's what happens in workshops like these. thoko has invited interested students to the girlhype campus. >> we have redefined the word 'impact' for us to one girl at a time. the more i see the needle and i see a lot of young black women going into tech or studying computer science and not dropping out, then i will say there's impact. >> part of this new strategy is working with schools in more affluent neighborhoods, like sea point high school in cape town. girlhype has started a coding club here and thoko provides additional instruction. despite the school's location, most of the students here come

from the townships. but their parents do all they can to support their education. >> when you see students leaving at a matric level, you start to see much more of a filtration over into university, into computer science and other related subjects, because of the fact that there were resources and there was support at home. >> 14-year-old likhona has all the prerequisites. >> it's the complete package in my opinion, plus i have always been like interested in computer sciences. i always wanted to do computer sciences in university and maybe do like software development as my career path. when there was like coding, opportunity to learn how to code, i like jumped. because like, yeah, who doesn't want to learn how to code? ♪

>> in europe, many countries have declining populations. women are having fewer children later in life. the result is a lack of people , workers for key jobs. one solution is to attract people from abroad. but who and how many is a topic of hot debate. spain is hoping migrants might breathe new life into some of its abandoned villages. >> nestled in the fields of northeastern spain, a long way from any city, ordis is home to just 370 people. it's a sleepy little village with just two shops: a butcher's and a café, there's also a school. at least for the time being. more and more local people are moving away, leaving just elderly residents here. the village is becoming a ghost town. >> talwasa osuly is a refugee from afghanistan.

she used to live in kabul, where she worked as a professor. but now she's here in ordis as part of a government scheme to combat rural depopulation >> when i was in kabul, i didn't like kabul. and when i came here, the first day i was in shock, because it is so small. i thought it is so difficult that i start over in a small village. >> she came to spain with her mother, who helps look after her 7-year-old son kawun. talwasa left afghanistan after the taliban threatened her. >> in front of the university, the taliban said to me, where are you going? i said, i am a professor and i go to the university. they said, why are you dressed like that?

you should hide your head, your face, your hands. the next time you wear these dresses, we will kill you. and he put a gun here. >> she has a sister who lives in canada and a brother who is stranded in pakistan. the rest of her family, including her father, stayed behind in kabul. now talwasa has a job with the local council. she's helping with a project documenting the history of the village. it's not easy because she has to work in catalan, a language she's still learning. >> like this. how do you use the tractor for work -- like this. the family photo and the wall in front of the old house. >> thanks to her job, talwasa is getting to know local

residents. maria has lived in ordis for over 50 years. before that she lived in england, so she's one of the few here who speak english. >> little village like us, we do not have diversity. we are all usually from catalonia, maybe from the other places in spain, but not the other languages. maybe there are some people who came from europe, france, england. but this is different. so, this difference of culture and language, it is important for us. >> initially, kawun struggled to adjust to his new surroundings. he kept asking when they'd be going home. but the d him settle in. >> he didn't speak much. he didn't say much. but when he started school and you went with him from one

place to another and you hold his hand, he holds it very, very tight. so, without saying a word, that kid was telling a lot of things. >> on saint george's day, village residents gather at the school. the children are marking the day with a special performance, and the mothers are all presented with roses. [applause] for talwasa, the best gift would be if she could stay in ordis once the government scheme comes to an end. >> i feel like i am in afghanistan with my family. all the village persons have a relation with me like a family. >> in school i have a lot of friends. i really like spain and i want to become an astronaut. ♪ >> talwasa and her family aren't sure how long they'll stay here. but for now, this little village in northern spain feels like home. ♪

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>> this is dw news, live from berlin. african leaders begin their peace mission to ukraine and russia, and russia plans a missile attack while they are there. also on dw, nato begins drawing on the west's first event strategy since the cold