jazeera. ♪ mohammed: can egypt help end the war in sudan? cairo is hosting a regional summit. but the warring sides are not there. so, can diplomacy work this time, and what's the fallout of this conflict on the region? this is "inside story." ♪ hello and welcome to the program. i'm mohammed jamjoom. egypt is attempting to end the fighting in sudan by hosting a summit of regional leaders.

but sudan's warring sides have not been invited. the united nations is warning the conflict could turn into a full-scale civil war that could further destabilize the region. millions of people have already been displaced and more fighting will likely worsen an already dire humanitarian situation, and that will have further consequences for sudan's neighbors. so, will the cairo summit lead to some sort of compromise? if not, what is at stake for the entire region? we will get to our guests in a moment, but first, this report. reporter: months of fighting in sudan is worrying its neighbors. egypt's president invited leaders from countries that border sudan to cairo to find a solution. the u.n. is warning the conflict may soon turn into a full-scale civil war that could spread to other nations. >> first, we're calling on warring sides in sudan to stop the escalation and begin serious negotiations for a cease-fire.

second, we call on all sudanese parties to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian supplies into safe areas that need it most. and developing a plan to guarantee protection for humanitarian aid convoys and international relief employees to facilitate their work. reporter: cease-fires between sudan's army and its rival, the rapid support forces, have been repeatedly broken. president el-sisi is trying to change that. but egypt, which historically has had close ties with the sudanese army, did not invite sudan's warring factions to the summit. >> what is known as the current government has lost control of the situation in sudan. they have lost the trust of their neighboring countries, or you could even say of countries across the region. reporter: the conflict has led to a major humanitarian crisis.

within three months, more than three million people in sudan have been displaced. about 700,000 of them have gone to neighboring countries, many of which were already struggling with their own economic and political issues. >> my country, chad, is suffering due to the consequences of what is happening in sudan. within one week we received more than 150,000 refugees, most of them women and children. reporter: the fighting, which started in the capital khartoum, has now spread westward to the already devastated darfur region. the united nations says the bodies of at least 87 people were found in a mass grave there, and says the rapid support forces may have been responsible. a claim the rsf denies. amid a power struggle with no clear winner there is concern of further escalation.

now the question is whether regional leaders will manage to find a solution. ♪ mohammed: all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. in cairo, sara kira, founder and director of the european north african center for research. in washington, d.c., giorgio cafiero, the ceo of gulf state analytics, a u.s.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. and in london, dallia abdelmoniem, a political commentator who fled from her home in the sudanese capital khartoum. a warm welcome to you all and thank you so much for joining us today on "inside story." sara, let me start with you today. this initiative being presented by egyptian president el-sisi, it is based on a cease-fire, the opening of safe passages for aid and a comprehensive dialogue, among other things. what are the steps that mr. el-sisi is proposing that need to be taken in order to achieve this, and can diplomacy, from your point of view, can

diplomacy work this time? sara: it's very hard to predict if diplomacy can work this time. it's more of, i see it as more of pressuring the two war parties in sudan through the neighboring countries. the neighboring countries, well, our three most important pillars, first is humanitarian relief for the sudanese people, which is a big worry for all the international societies. the humanitarian crisis that sudanese brothers and sisters are facing now, this is the first pillar of the summit. the second pillar, diplomacy, or a political settlement. like the leaders today were trying to settle on one political plan, or action plan,

to try and pressure the two war parties in sudan to cease-fire. this will not be through diplomacy as much as it's through pressuring especially the speed army forces, because they have ties with chad. this is why the first ministerial meeting for this summit will be in chad. mohammed: dallia, there have been so many disturbing reports that have emerged out of the conflict in sudan. the u.n. says a mass grave containing at least 87 bodies has been discovered in sudan's west darfur region. the victims were reportedly members of an ethnic minority group. the u.n.'s human rights office condemned the killings and said that it had credible information that the rapid response forces were responsible. the rsf of course denies that claim. how does this news that has emerged impact the prospects of peace going forward?

dallia: it impacts it simply because both sides are violating so many conventions and so many treaties in this war. and it makes no difference, because they have been denying everything. everything you throw at them or accuse them of, each side denies it. so if the rsf is the one committing murder, genocide, and raping females, the army, from its own side, is arresting and holding without trial democracy, civilian activists. so both sides are in violation of so many agreements. at the same time, hearing about the summit in cairo, i mean, they can hold as many summits as they want, but if both sides have no intention to end this war, at the end of the day it is just a group of leaders meeting in a nice room and discussing

things that will have no effect on reality, which is what is happening right now in sudan. so, to me, unfortunately, it is just another way to further extend this war. and all these talks and these meetings will have little effect. mohammed: giorgio, you heard dallia there talk about the fact that you can have as many summits as you want, but if the warring parties are not really wanting to engage each other to try to stop this conflict, not much can be achieved. egypt is hosting the leaders of sudan's neighbors in order to find ways to try and end the conflict, but the warring sudanese factions have not been invited. so what can be achieved without the presence of those warring factions? giorgio: well, i think the skepticism that many people have expressed is well-founded. what the egyptian leadership obviously believes is that it is absolute necessary for there to be greater regional and

international cooperation with the leaders of all the countries that border sudan, putting pressure on the saf and the rsf to come to some sort of arrangement that can bring some peace and stability back to sudan. i would add, though, that while you rightly point out that the absence of the two warring sides is problematic, there is also a problem that the civilian elements of sudan, the elements who were critical to the 2018, 2019 revolution, and those who actually have legitimacy among different communities in sudan, their absence is problematic. and i will add to that that the absence of some other outside actors that are playing influential roles in sudan, such as some of the gcc countries, that is also a bit problematic too. and i think we have to be concerned about how some of the

external actors who are not present in egypt today have the potential to play some spoiler roles. mohammed: dallia, i saw you reacting to some of what giorgio was was saying there and it looked like you might want to jump in. go ahead. dallia: i agree completely with what he said. i mean, from the beginning, ever since this conflict started until today, the civilian aspect has been severely curtailed and pushed to the sidelines, albeit regardless from the civilian point of view, some of the civilian actors we do not agree that they should represent us because of their failures in the past. but at the same time, they need to be there. and i agree. you had the meeting a few days ago, and you had the likes of the ethiopian and the kenyan presidents saying there should be a no-fly zone. already the language that has been coming out from all of these summits has been quite

problematic and worrisome. because this, to me, just seems to extend the war even further. and the other parties to the conflict, the gcc, mainly saudi arabia and the uae, have a big role to play, and yet they seem to be reluctant to come out to the forefront and say ok, this is what we're going to do. simply because it plays to their own interests, what is happening. then you have the role of the united states, who is consistently insisting on sending a representative who, in my opinion, is one of the sole reasons we are in the mess we are in right now. she's inept, in my opinion. she is completely inept to the job. so there are a lot of actors to this conflict and either they are playing their cards close to the chest or they are just toying with the situation. the longer this takes, the longer the conflict continues, the worse the situation will

become not just for sudan and the sudanese but for neighboring countries, regional issues, resource issues, the water, the rainy season is coming up. it is just a mess, and no one seems to have a clear idea as to how to go about to put an end to the conflict. mohammed: giorgio, i just want to ask you to elaborate on some comments you made a few moments ago in your previous answer, when you talked about some gcc countries that were involved in promoting the conflict. i wanted to ask you to please elaborate on that. giorgio: well, after president bashir fell from power in 2019, what we saw was saudi arabia and the uae step in very decisively. and as a consequence of bashir's fall, riyadh and abu dhabi gained a tremendous amount of clout in sudan, and i would say out of all the gcc countries, the uae has been the most active

and most influential in sudan. when we talk about the rsf, and we talk about hemeti, the extent to which this warlord has become so powerful in sudan, it's impossible to ignore the emirate factor. hemeti helped out the emirates in libya and also in yemen. from the perspective of abu dhabi, he represents a bulwark against political islam in sudan. so this relationship between the uae and the rsf is incredibly important. i think looking ahead, i don't believe that the rsf is in a position to completely knock out the army and have some sort of a decisive victory. but perhaps this conflict will freeze at some point, with the army on the rsf having to sort of share some power under some sort of an arrangement, and the uae will continue to be able to assert its influence in sudan through this very powerful

paramilitary force. mohammed: sara, since the beginning of the conflict, more than three million people in sudan have been displaced, about 700,000 of them have gone to neighboring countries. i want to ask you about how much concern there is that more fighting will only deepen this already dire humanitarian crisis, and also how much concern there is from neighbors of sudan who feel that they are not equipped to handle potentially more of an influx of people who are fleeing sudan. sara: ok. of course egypt is one of the first countries, as well as the neighboring countries, who are collected today, or meeting today for a collective work to work on a peace action plan for sudan. because those are the countries that are taking all the negative consequence of a civil war. and it's very hard for us, it is very sad to call it a civil war, but it is a war over resources and power.

and the importance of collecting or meeting up with neighboring countries today, first of all, because they are the people with the most numbers of refugees, or hosting refugees from sudan. so, they are the first borders to bear the negative consequence of the conflict. second, with all the risks that we can calculate out of having a problematic civil war on our borders, the first thing is the misery of the sudanese people. so, in egypt, as you all know, we have received a huge number of refugees and it's affecting our resources as well, and the neighboring countries have influence over hemeti. speaking of hemeti, he has very close ties from chad, and he's being funded by chad.

and you know, because of the tribal nature of sudan and some of the neighboring countries, some of them -- some tribes are helping hemeti. and the absence of both fighting parties in sudan in this summit is because it is a civil war. it is because two parties have neglected the misery of the people and continue to barbarically, or to fiercely fight each other over resources and power, neglecting that humanitarian crisis and neglecting the future of the sudanese people. so today we have taken the responsibility as egypt, and egyptians as well, because we are very worried amid this economic crisis. we want everyone to live peacefully, especially in those countries neighboring us and bordering us, because enough problems egypt has now.

enough economic crisis egypt has now. that is why in the summit today, there has been a call for the inclusion of the civil society, especially women. there has not been a neglecting -- how do you call it, sorry -- neglecting forces, or neglecting efforts -- efforts, that is the word i'm looking for. mohammed: sara, i am sorry to interrupt you, but we are starting to run out of time. i just want to ask dallia a question about another initiative that has been going on recently, to try to bring it into the conflict. you have the ethiopian prime minister, he has called for this egyptian initiative being worked on now to essentially coincide with the igat initiative which had been announced earlier. of course relations between

egypt and ethiopia have been strained these past few years. so, does that complicate the push for peace? dallia: it always complicates, because as a sudanese, i will always wonder what is the ulterior motive between any sovereign country's push for peace in sudan at this moment in time, simply because i think outside actors have played a significant role in destabilizing this country ever since the revolution in 2019. but at the same time, i welcome any initiative from any side that will actually somehow concretely bring an end to this mess. but, i don't know. i mean, ethiopia, there has been talk that ethiopia supports the rsf because of the dam issue, and of course egypt supports the army because it's an institution, and also because of the water and the dam issue. so i think in the midst of all of this, as a sudanese -- and i

would just like to correct sara, it is not quite a civil war because the sudanese people are not siding with either side. we are the ones who are caught in the middle. so this is a war between two heads of military units and we are the ones who are paying the price. and it is a horrific situation to be in. because for so long, sudan was a country that took in so many refugees and migrants, and yet now we are the ones who are seeking refuge, and a lot of doors have been closed on us. it is a hard situation to appreciate, because there is only so much that we can do. but at the same time, i have very low hopes for anything to come out of any of these summits, but that is all we have at this moment. i am hoping there is a breakthrough somehow. and i think that breakthrough will come from those who can yank the chains harder on either side, whether it is the army or the rsf. mohammed: dallia, if i could

just ask you as well, obviously it's very emotional having to deal with all of this. how painful has it been for you, for your family, for your loved ones? dallia: i mean, i go to bed every day, i just have one prayer, that i go back home soon. so, it's horrific because there is nothing i can do. there's only so much i can do. and you just hear, read, there doesn't seem to be any -- i don't know, i don't know. i just really don't know. it is just a horrible situation to be in. mohammed: terrible, indeed. giorgio, you wrote a piece recently in which you discussed some of the security threats egypt may face due to the conflict in sudan, and you said that nonstate actors could potentially exploit sudan's crisis in ways that would directly threaten egypt.

how might that play out? giorgio: yeah, well, the egyptian leadership had to deal with the conflict in libya, which created a tremendous amount of concern in cairo about the potential for various nonstate actors, terrorist organizations, to infiltrate egypt from libya. now with the situation in sudan, there are of course these concerns in play which helps us understand why the egyptians have been so determined to try to securitize their southern border. obviously, as everyone knows, for many years egypt has dealt with terrorism crises. and if there is a scenario whereby sudan does break out into an all-out civil war, we deal with total state collapse, there are going to be many power vacuums in sudan that very

nefarious actors have the potential to exploit. this is a concern for egypt, it is also a concern for countries in the gulf. saudi arabia, for example, is trying to advance these projects aligned with the vision 2030 on the kingdom's red sea coast. so a terrorism crisis in sudan could impact countries in the arabian peninsula, other countries in africa. so my point is it is not just egypt, but all of the countries in the region have very good reason to be concerned about what state collapse and dangerous power vacuums in sudan could mean for everybody. mohammed: sara, it looked to me like you were nodding in agreement to a lot of what giorgio was saying there and it looked like you wanted to jump in, so please go ahead. sara: yes, the security threats

is part of what is on egyptian minds. sudanese people are on egyptian minds. as dallia said, and my heart goes to you, we had a lot of egyptians working in sudan. now we are receiving sudanese and back our egyptians who were working there. it is a situation no one wishes sudan to be in. geopolitically speaking, adding up to what giorgio said, is that all neighboring countries have to be, not only for the humanitarian crisis which is the biggest on our minds now, but also for their own security politically speaking also for the neighboring countries. that is why i am trying to reflect some hope to dallia, that it might, it might go well. it is a civil war not because people are involved in it or killing each other. sudanese people are so much better than that. but it's because we are dealing with the consequence of bashir's rule of power. he created a very strong

paramilitary that now tribes are supporting with weapons and army stuff and everything. and this war will extend as long as some of the neighboring countries, because of the tribal nature, are working with hemeti or the national army league of sudan. national army of sudan, of course egypt has an interest to deal with them. as a state, you always like to deal with the intact party, or the party that has an interest of stabilizing the country. in sudan's situation, that has not been the case by their army, because the army has helped in sliding into the civil war and has been slid into that. so now, to pressure on both parties to care for their people and to stop fighting over

whatever there is that they are fighting about, either power, resources, or the rule of sudan in the future, this is to be determined by the sudanese people and the institutions of sudan. the future of sudan will be determined by the sudanese people. but the neighboring countries are pushing for that, because there is no prosperity, no political settlement until those fighting parties stop those military actions for the sake of the people and saving this humanitarian crisis now. we have now slid from 719, a revolution, a legitimate people's revolution asking for stabilizing their country and prosperity and welfare, as it should be, to a civil war between two very strong parties, which is the army and another paramilitary force that is being supported. to stop the support and to stop

this fight, we have to -- mohammed: sara, i am sorry to interrupt you again, it is just that we only have a couple of minutes left. i do need to get back to dallia and ask one last question. dallia, egypt has historically had close ties with the sudanese army. from your vantage point, does this make this task as far as pushing for peace easier for egypt, or more difficult? dallia: it is not going to be easy, but i think egypt, in a way, has played it smartly so far. they have kept quiet, they have kept on the sidelines. and i think they have waited for others to do their part and the failures of other sides has allowed egypt to step up and say, ok, let's do this, and we can do it this way. and having read what president el-sisi said that the summit aims to do, so far it seems to be the most concrete steps taken to somehow bring an end -- or

the three month cessation of conflict is a good idea, the safe passage of humanitarian aid, so on and so forth. so i do hope the egyptian initiative works. but at the end of the day, if all the parties concerned, or all parties who have a stake in this issue don't play their part, it's futile. it is just absolutely useless. and that goes for not just our neighboring countries, but also goes to regional powers and international players as well. mohammed: all right, well we have run out of time so are going to have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much to all of our guests. sara kira, giorgio cafiero, and dallia abdelmoniem. and thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, that's facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, mohammed jamjoom, and the whole team here, bye for now. ♪

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