emily: foreign ministers of the southeast asian asean block have met in jakarta and have been joined by top envoys from china, russia, and the u.s. what brought the visitors from afar, who's looking for what, and from whom? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, and welcome to the program. i'm emily angwin. we don't want asean to become a

proxy for other countries. the words of indonesia's president, joko widodo, as foreign ministers from 10 southeast asian countries meet in the capital, jakarta, running through the region and major fault lines of disputes between east and west. the arrival of top diplomats from china, russia, and the u.s. underline the importance of the region and its potential flashpoints. taiwan, north korea, russia's war in ukraine, territorial disputes in the south china sea, to name just a few. so, is asean at risk of being used by more powerful countries? we'll be discussing all that and asean's wider role in world affairs with our guests. but first, jessica washington reports from the regional forum in the indonesian capital. reporter: it's been a week of intense diplomacy here in jakarta, with top diplomats from around the world coming to jakarta for talks with their asean counterparts, the u.s. secretary of state, anthony blinken, russia's foreign minister, sergey lavrov, and

china's top diplomat, wang yi, all in town for these discussions, as well as the foreign ministers from a string of other countries, australia, india, the uk, south korea, and even representation from north korea. north korea's ambassador to indonesia, sitting in on on some of those meetings. now with such a diverse range of countries, it's no surprise that there are a diverse range of topics to cover, mostly focusing on security issues in the asia pacific. among the issues raised during this week of talks, significant regional security issues. these include north korea's ballistic missile launches at the south china sea, the war in ukraine, which secretary blinken reiterated to his asean colleagues is causing direct harm to people across the region, exacerbating food and energy crises, and of course, the crisis in myanmar, with the escalation of violence unfolding there. host nation indonesia has emphasized the importance of keeping the region peaceful and

stable. speaking with her asean counterparts, foreign minister masudi stressed the need to keep the region peaceful and that it cannot become a battleground or a proxy in great power rivalry. the most pressing issue for the block at this moment is the violence in myanmar and the deteriorating situation there, in the communique of asean foreign ministers, they strongly condemned the continued acts of violence in myanmar, including airstrikes, artillery shelling and the destruction of public facilities, and they urged all parties to take action to stop the violence. the meetings come as doubts over the effectiveness and credibility of the asean bloc continue to emerge, particularly as there are questions over the unity of the block in facing some of the region's biggest challenges, including chief among them, the crisis and unfolding violence in myanmar. jessica washington, in jakarta, for "inside story."

emily: so, what is asean? the association of southeast asian nations was created in 1967 to stand against communism, but has evolved over the years by fostering trade security and other bilateral relations, it has 10 members, brunei, cambodia, indonesia, laos, malaysia, the philippines, singapore, thailand, vietnam, and myanmar. they have a population of 662 million and a combined gdp of 3.2 trillion dollars. asean is party to the largest free trade agreement in the world, the regional comprehensive economic partnership, along with china, new zealand, australia, japan, and south korea. ♪ all right. let's bring in our guests. in singapore, ja ian chong, an associate professor of political science at the national university of singapore. in washington, d.c., shirley yu, a senior visiting fellow at the london school of economics.

and in beijing, einar tangent, a senior fellow at the taihe institute. a very warm welcome to you all and thanks for joining us on the program. einar, i'm going to start with you. just how relevant is asean on a global stage today? >> well, it's increasingly relevant because of its growth. if you look at almost all indices, they're way, way ahead. they're part of this kind of larger china asian economic block, not only through rcep, but through the belton road, -- not only through rcep, but through the belton road initiative, which has been helping with infrastructure and things like that. so it's become a kind of a area of interest. the u.s. has been involved 10 years after asean was created, but it was always seen as a strategic issue. now it's increasingly becoming economic. it has a very large trade surplus of the u.s. and a lot of the goods that were previously coming directly from

china are actually now coming from asean states. there are intermediate goods that are made in china then shipped there. but finished products are going out. so economically, politically, obviously, very relevant. emily: shirley, do you agree, is asean relevant today on a global stage? >> absolutely. asean's the world's possibly most assuming economic superpower. today about 3.4% of the global gdpr nominal terms, so that is about three quarters of the japanese economy. but the economic scale is expected to quadruple by 2040, and that'll make it much larger than japan, indonesia, and germany, europe. the initiation of china's reform and opening up. the idea itself is extremely bold and exciting.

i think it's fair to say that the global growth opportunities really lies in south and southeast asia in the coming decades. >> your reaction? >> i think there's a common confusion between southeast asia and asean southeast asia, the countries who are members states of asean. certainly they have the economic attributes that were earlier described. however we're talking about asean as a corporate actor, as an organization. it certainly lacks unity. it has a lot of trouble trying to put initiatives across. i mean in the description right at the front we heard how the president, asean chair indonesia saying they don't want to be put in a position of major power competition. they have a lot of trouble trying to put forward what they want and this includes trying to deal with the unfolding crisis in myanmar. emily: yes, i want to break down all of those issues one by one throughout the program. but first of all, i guess my question to you is then based on what you've just said, what is the biggest challenge for the block? >> i think the biggest challenge right now is really asean unity.

the different member states while they all broadly want economic gains, stability, there is a lot more difference over how to achieve those ends. and what my need to be sacrificed. what kinds of initiative needs to be taken? so the default sort of holding position is the sort of very passive we don't want to choose sides. so that inability to put forward an initiative to try to address whether it's the myanmar issue, whether it's about trying to get the major powers on the same page, that i think is really what is a stumbling block for asiana at this point in time. emily: i noticed that you were shaking your head there. so you don't agree the biggest challenge for the block is managing these escalating tensions potentially between the u.s. and china? >> well, i don't think it's asean's job to figure out how to get russia, the united states, and china together. that is going to be a very separate conversation.

i do agree that it is 10 members and they don't agree, but i think it's wrong to put this kind of western gloss on this particular organization. it is a consensus organization, not corporate. it's not like the u.n. where you get enough votes and you can pass things. this is a group where sovereign states have to agree with each other. so they have been putting pressure on myanmar, but they're not kicking them out, they're not putting big sanctions on them and things like this. what they're trying to do is bring them back in the fold. i think in most asian countries, there's this feeling that you have to be patient that tomorrow is another day, and another day we'll follow that and things change invariably. so i don't think it's very useful to set deadlines and say, oh, well, you have to do this, that, and the other thing. these are sovereign countries and they have to be respected. emily: the summit has condemned --

>> i don't agree with that. i really don't agree with that. i think that may be the view from beijing, but, you know, beijing does not have a monopoly on what is asean. [overlapping chatter] emily: gentlemen, i'm just going to interrupt you there. i'm going to let ian finish what he has to say and then shirley can respond. and then you can respond to that. please go ahead. >> i don't think asean has any role in managing usprc relations. that's something up to the major powers. but it does have a role in putting forward its own plan. this doesn't have to be putting forward a deadline, but it does need some sort of plan to have a -- have the five-point consensus that really you know doesn't incentivize or disincentivize for that matter. certain kinds of behavior is one of the reasons why we're seeing this dragging out of the myanmar situation. that is the outcome. emily: shirley, did you want to respond? >> i agree that asean faces both

internal and external issues. fdi inflow is significantly higher. the block definitely needs to expand the internal trade investment in naval visa-free travels and further integrate the regional supply chains, all of which will be crucial for its success. but, as you know, it's also not to be underestimated. let's recall the rsap agreements. because of asean's unassuming power, china, japan, and korea were able to reach a free trade agreement, which otherwise would have been completely inconceivable given the historical hostilities. so asean might surprise the world again not just because of seemingly the lack of political cohesion or ideological allegiance to one another, but really because of a coherent aspiration for collective asean rights. emily: if i can just return to

the myanmar issue, do you think that the summit has moved the needle at all when it comes to this continuing crisis in myanmar? >> no, i don't think they have. i mean, the situation in myanmar is fairly intractable already. there's a lot of scrutiny of illegal oil trades that are going on there. there are people who are taking advantage of the chaos once again to make money. but this idea that nothing has been accomplished by asean, i shouldn't say that. that's overstating it. but look at what they have accomplished. the rcep, the growth in asean is now the envy of the world. so this idea that it doesn't function, and there's something wrong with it, and it has to adopt a kind of western value approach and and set the headlines i think is wrong. and obviously there's plenty of room to disagree. but you do have to look at the results, and at this juncture, the results are pretty good. you can't just isolate mymar and

say, look, because they're not dealing with myanmar the way you want them to, therefore it's a failure. you have to look at the entire picture right now. it looks pretty good. emily: one of the other pressing issues on the agenda was that asean in china on thursday reaffirmed their commitment to speed up negotiations on that long delayed code of conduct in the south china sea. can ask you why has this been dragged out and what impact if any will this code of conduct have on what happens in the south china sea? >> so the code of conduct was initially put forward as a way perhaps to govern behavior on the south china sea to avoid escalation, to avoid tensions getting out of control. now what the situation has sort of developed into -- and this is one of the reasons why the negotiations have taken or taken over what 20 years now, the basic point is that there is

doubt among asean members, and the degree of doubt will vary about whether china will keep to whatever commitments it makes and conversely if they are held to commitments, asean members, they may sort of overly hemmed in. on the p.r.c. side, i suppose there is concern that if you have sort of rules that try to limit what beijing can do, it may not have the sort of freedom of action it wants especially as it seeks to pursue its claims in the south china sea. and also -- this is not a western thing. this view is coming from southeast asia. i'm the only person here on this panel who engages asean on it issues on a daily basis. so i think sometimes the perspective from outside of asean, can be quite different from the perspective inside asean. and perhaps some respect for how

asean members actually look at the issues could be useful. emily: how important is asean for nations like vietnam's and the philippians who have long been having these territorial disputes with beijing? how important is asean for them? >> very interesting. if you notice recently with the escalating territorial tension between china and these two asean members you just mentioned, i would say in vietnam recently, if you look at the transportation ministry from vietnam who actually recently visited beijing to discuss bringing chinese high-speed rail networks to vietnam, so the historical tension in a way between china and the neighboring countries, it's always been there. historically at various points in history, borders shifted between china and vietnam under territorial disputes.

and at some point in time, even the cultures were homogenous. and so i think today the dominant discussion between china and these asean countries, it's still overwhelmingly within the economic realm. and so if we were to look at the ongoing narratives, i don't think that further broader asia-pacific region it is going to be territorial disputes that dominating the ongoing narrative in the 21st century. i think it'll be economic prosperity. emily: what we've seen in in recent weeks, recent months, more military bases being built in the philippines and very public maritime displays. what are the implications of the u.s. boosting its military might or its military alliances with asean members? >> well, obviously, it's not welcome in beijing. but these are sovereign nations. they have the right to do that. the question is, are they going to open themselves to up to some sort of you know being involved as basically jumping off points for another war?

i mean, surely everyone in asean remembers what happened in vietnam, and laos, cambodia, even south korea, on the earlier parts, where those areas were just basically used as a portable bases to support u.s. troops. it didn't accomplish anything, south korea is still in transition, vietnam was lost and has found its own way. i've had the privilege of knowing many of the ambassadors over the years from asean and also ministers. so my perspective is perhaps skewed by the fact that what they've told me as opposed to what i've heard from him. emily: did you want to respond? >> these are debates that we have in asean quite a bit. and the view on how you look at asean in the past, there is some

debate over it. so for instance, cambodia, laos and vietnam side with beijing and washington against vietnam when it invaded cambodia but that is also seen by the ozzie and states -- the asean states that were sort of pointed to the cambodian coalition government. and help to stabilize the region. it helps create a situation where economic growth could have been. on the issue of improving military and other ties with various states, a long-standing view that a number of asean members take is that the more major powers getting involved in the region having a stake in the region would encourage these states to take a stand to preserve the region's stability and it is on the stability that allows for prosperity to be built.

so it's not that the economics is separate from the stability and security. they are interlinked. emily: indonesia's president said asean should not become a platform for conflict or any tool used by any nation. why is russia there? >> this is precisely what i was talking about. this view of more major powers having a stake in the region would be a good thing. the view is that if you get russia in, it would have a stake as well. on the flip side of it, one of the other things asean -- it looks to see itself as a convening power. a way of bringing different actors together. this is the way the organization uplifts itself and its importance. it provides a platform for states with a dialogue and partners with different points of view to come together.

that they keep talking and from the conversation perhaps ways forward can be found. perhaps pitfalls such as further escalation can be avoided. so that's the point of inviting russia even though i think asean states, there is some variation on the degree in which they support russia's invasion of ukraine. emily: surely could asean play a role in brokering peace in ukraine? >> i doubt y -- i doubt ukraine specifically. but i wouldn't underestimate asean's potential power there. we have to look at the fundamental feature of asean. it is a collective of autocracies, democracies, the kingdom and military government. the common denominator for asean nations is political

nonalignment. i don't believe that the asean nations will be siding with the u.s. positive autocracy versus democracy global narrative. and i doubt that asean will be moving towards de-risking china economically. because it's paralyzing this nature of non-political alignments. emily: what is moscow trying to achieve by its attendance do you think? >> it's called desperation. they've been cut off from the west. they can't even use the banks. so they are looking to open up additional trade. singapore is opposing them. and has made it very clear that they're concerned about the u.s concerns in ukraine. that is their right. but they would like to have local settlements. settlements in local currencies. and they -- when you have nowhere else to go, you go to where things are. and right now asean is a

hotspot. obviously there are opportunities for russia. they are thinking because of the increased number of people expected there, that will have to be more missionary -- russian machinery is fairly inexpensive. also there'll be energy needs. so they're looking at the opportunities long term although their total trade right now is fairly mediocre. emily: how do you think asean should evolve going forward? what will we be discussing this time next year? >> a lot of what happens at these meetings depends on what happens on the rest of the world. asean itself if you look at the joint cement that was put out it wants to emphasize on strengthening the economy and economic cooperation both within asean and outside of asean. it is also talking about ways to improve intra asean coordination. it is consensus based but

i think still areas to be gained in terms of making coordination snow there. getting asean to see things and be on the same page more quickly. those are think i think -- asean -- those are things i think asean leaders are grappling with. emily: the same question to you, shirley. >> i think asean is well-positioned to capitalize on the best of both worlds between now and perhaps a common couple decades. today we are seeing two of the world's largest economies increasingly moving their supply chains, manufacturing, technology, and with a talent pool to the region, the u.s. initiated the indo pacific economic partnership which just completed the supply chain agreements. with the ongoing rcep agreements, it brings asean closer to continental eurasia. where else in the world do we

have a region that are essentially the darling of the two largest global economies at the same time? so i think to maximize this economic opportunity and to really develop a quintessential supply chain that will continue to bring economic prosperity, stabilize the global inflation for the world, that will be a station. emily: and einer? >> i think you hit the nail on the head, which is quite frankly about security issues. and what i mean by that is outside entities trying to inject their agendas into the asean agenda. -- the asean area. i agree china has to be more creative than doing tit for tat with great powers like the u.s. or europe. they're going to have to figure out some way of getting around it. the south china sea issue is a major one. if that were to be settled, there would be a quick cooling down of temperatures there. because it would no longer be in

play. any attempt by the u.s to try to insert itself militarily or for security reasons would be rebuffed because they say why -- we don't have any threats, why are you here? it would be a tremendous amount of tension not only for china but for asean and the entire world. emily: some final thoughts from you. we only have two minutes left of the program, then quickly to shirley. >> i think moving ahead on the south china sea issues would be good. if china would agree to in clause, something signed and ratified would be a great move forward. through the arbitral tribunal process the philippines have brought that had been ruled in favor of the philippines is one place to start. to avoid using the sort of muscle that it has on some other actors would be very much appreciated in this part of the world as well. emily: shirley? >> china just agreed with asia -- with asean on the

nonaggression pact to be completed within three years or less. the pact also proposes it'll restrict foreign activities and presence in regional waters. so i think it's going to be a harder negotiation ahead but if we were to look at the just concluded nato summit, the communique also stated the p.r.c. challenges its interests, security, and values, and it is interesting that interest comes before security and before values. we are talking about nato here. so i think that really reflects a current understanding globally that economic prosperity as a part of the broader national security narrative. so it's really not just the military specs per se that aggravates china. it is really the restrictions. the suppression and containment as president xi talked about

that aggravates china. emily: thank you very much. we've got 30 seconds left for your final thoughts. >> let's hope that this works out. the issue here in asean -- a lot of it is about the security issues. you do have respect what asean has done and accomplished as we have talked about here. i don't think that it's going to take this legalistic point of view where you can force other nations to do something. if that were true, the united states would not be by definition a rogue state because it breaks treaties and starts wars and that is in violation of the un, sabotaging the wto. right now we need to build trust and that is what is happening in southeast asia. there's trust being built because they are cooperating. i hope that trust will be the basis of finding peace in the region. that allow, as shirley has said, prosperity for everybody. emily: well, it's certainly a complex region with many moving

parts, and we appreciate all your thoughts on this and your analysis. it's been a fascinating conversation. thank you to ja ian chong, associate professor of political science, shirley yu, a senior visiting fellow, and einar tangen, a senior fellow at the taihe institute. thank you. and thank you, too, for watching at home. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, al jazeera.com. -- our website, aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, that's facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter, our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, emily angwin, and the whole team, bye for now. ♪

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