>> this is inside story. ♪ >> hello, welcome to the

program. spain is heading to the polls. the socialist under prime minister sanchez facing off against the center-right people's party under alberto nunez. it is the influence of smaller parties that could prove decisive. even the far left or the far right near certain to be part of a coalition government. here's part of a trend repeating itself across europe. we will get to our guests in a moment. >> the leader of spain's opposition census opportunity. a disastrous showing by the government has painted a path for alberto nunez fail of the center-right people's party to become the next prime minister. as the nation heads towards national polls, he believes momentum is on his side. >> calling snap elections doesn't hide what happens.

spaniards have said enough. we've had enough. i think this feeling is translated into a clear people's party victory. >> prime minister sanchez, a socialist of the centerleft, made one of the biggest gambles of his political career. by calling snap elections, he's hoping to gain a new mandate. more than five years in power have seen his popularity wane. high unemployment of more than 30% is a major concern. his agenda on social issues has also divided opinion. and past legislation, he's had to rely on support from politicians. that has allowed opponents to paint him as an ally of separatists. if sanchez is to remain in power, he will likely need to enter a coalition with yolanda diaz. she leaves the far left. the far right also have a role to play. the box party is poised to be

unessential coalition partner for people's party government. >> sanchez said the choice was clear. >> there are only two formations or two ways to govern. the government of the progressive coalition socialist party, the party of yolanda diaz. i'm not afraid to say so. if i can, i will -- it is clear you have two different organizations. >> where large parties of the center once dominated, new areas are becoming difficult to ignore. a pattern repeating across europe. the result of spain's election may provide further science before the continent is headed. [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, -- >> let's bring in our guest for this edition of inside story. hosea maria bonito.

president at the governance and society institute in berlin. and a former fellow at the institute of current world affairs specializes in the rise of populist far right parties in europe. and in london, pablo called the road, professor of politics and international relations at northeastern university. thank you to all of my guests. beginning with you in madrid, why would pedro sanchez bring forward early elections so soon after municipal defeats? time is a great healer. he could have stretched it out to reassure the public in spain until at least december in that he's the leader to trust. he's not gone for that option. why? >> everyone still, many people in his home party. he was probably fearing some of the opposition, his own party could stand up and eventually

become alternatives to his own candidacy. that was one point. the second, he expected to take the quick decision language and have the position not prepare for the election. and third, he wanted to re-create the left, but through personalities, a politician, yolanda diaz, who he has really brought into the scene. >> let's ask the same question. is it a real gamble for sanchez? >> i think to an extent it is a gamble. and i think of pedro sanchez, he

has proven himself to be a political operator. i agree with a lot of his analysis. but it is a calculated gamble. pedro sanchez could have easily predicted time can be a great healer. but in government, a government imposed for a good number of years, the wear and tear of governing starts to take effect. i think he was trying to avoid it to some extent. i think he was calling the bluff of the spanish people to say if this is really what you want. if you want a politician in government. have to go to the general election and back it up. it is a calculated gamble. we will not know if it works or not until monday. >> you have an overview of what is going on in europe. calling snap elections is not new in any european capital. least of all, spain. what is at stake? is political survival and

massive issues such as the economy and cost-of-living, fuel prices and everything else in between? >> this is a moment where you are seeing -- it is about pedro sanchez's political survival, a referendum on his time in government and his governance coalition. at the same time, we are seeing a lot of these core issues you mentioned manifesting in countries all across europe. when we look at the broader trends towards shifts to the right that we have seen in a handful of countries, it really fits within the broader fabric of some of the things happening across the continent. >> do you think he is taking a gamble? >> sure. it is a calculated gamble. it is a chance to say, essentially to call the elector's bluff and say this is the alternative. as we see in finland, sweden, a

handful of other countries, here's the right wing alternative. is it what you want, or are we going to move forward and give him and his coalition another option? another chance to continue in office? >> let me bring you back in in madrid. we are talking about options, the right of politics, the left of politics. the right is about the conservatives and their allies leading in the polls at the moment. they did very well in the may local and municipal elections. what do they offer to the public in spain sanchez's government doesn't offer right now? >> in this election, the rejection by the electorate of polarization. if you see the polls, we are going to see the witness most likely coming back to the main parties.

bipartisanship, the dominant trend in spanish politics throughout the 1980's, 1990's, was overcome by coming to the political scene two extremes. now we see it is the electorate coming back to the center. it is giving to the electorate this sense of moderation that is very much looked for by an important part of the electorate. it is extreme politics, which i think is positive. one should not deny sanchez has been governing with the support of podemos.

and they have managed to get through most of the radical politics. the spanish public at large at the center wants to have more politics. this is what it is giving to them now. >> what is really interesting about the politics of spain right now is every political party is saying we want to win the election. they are talking like independent parties. but the analysts are talking about the conservative pp party and the vox party, playing chicken with each other. they are trying to act like independents, but the final outcome is they will have to work together to oust pedro sanchez if that is the inevitable outcome. they are wasting time and saying let's work together.

>> i don't think it is necessarily wasting time. i don't any opposition can afford to say we are not going to win the election. it disenfranchises voters. it has to say. the difference with the left is they have been working together with podemos. it is a lot harder for him to say i will never govern with the far left bodies, because they are already doing that. it is a lot easier to call the bluff if you have never done it before. so this is what they are planning to do. i don't necessarily agree we are seeing a return to center politics. in some ways, we haven't really moved forward in the last 100 years of spanish history, where we see the fine blocks to the left or to the right that are becoming more politicized and

more extreme. it studies the danger we are seeing, the main parties of the center, gaining the share of the vote, whether the pp or the socialist party. it seems to me they are becoming less and less able to have a conversation between them. it seems the extremes are coming back to dominate spanish politics. i think that is very dangerous. >> i would like to come back to you. you can analyze the left extreme and the extreme right when it comes to spanish politics. in terms of spain's particular scenario, how much of these extreme parties are going to play the kingmaker if the election turns out the way we think it is that is going to be a coalition and the smaller parties are going to decide who might become prime minister. >> i think that is the thing.

there is the rhetoric that you hear up until the polls close, and the rhetoric you hear from the parties the day after once the dust is settled and you know who has what percentage and what coalition might be possible. if we are speaking specifically about the right, you have this dilemma trying to make sure you reassure your centrist voters who are not on the extreme. the same time, if we want to talk about the impact of a far right party, you've got the actual impact they may end up having on governing in a governing coalition. you also have the campaign rhetoric on the political rhetoric of the atmosphere. in spain and other countries across europe, you see these parties have an outsize impact on what topics are being discussed, how they are being discussed. if you look at the campaign period, that is one area where you can see beyond the votes, what percentage they end up

getting on election day, they are being able to be in that discussion. >> little topics and discussions we want about the issues. one is secession is a. jose back in madrid. the current ruling coalition has worked with secessionist parties to try and get government policy through parliament. we have seen that by breeding -- bringing the politicians on board. what sort of effect has this sort of coalition agreement working together had on the psyche of the spanish people when it comes to regional parties working with the national government? >> differentiating between the regional parties and string independence. i think this has really affected him very negatively, he has been

supported in most of his main legislation by the extreme independent pieces. we have the political successor to the antiterrorist group. and we also have --, which also comes from the extreme republican left. working very closely with -- i think this is really one of the points that is going to be quite decisive and this election. even in the socialist party. there have been so many influential people and party folks who have been criticized -- criticizing sanchez strongly on these decisions. >> let me just extend the question. you are nodding in agreement. we saw that 2017 failed bid for

independence in the catalan region. spain's most serious domestic crisis in years. one does wonder how much of an effect it has had in the way politicians speak about a united spain and a spain for everyone. >> it is obviously the legacy of that very strong independent just movement. maneuvering in spanish politics today. probably the most relevant impact we are seeing today is relatively easy ammunition for the parties of the right to criticize the government and say there you go. a socialist government supported by the radical secessionist movement is a party that does not protect the unification, the unity of spain. it is the main issue here. the socialist party doesn't have

any other alternative. at the end of the day, somebody has to govern, somebody has to run the country. they keep storing similar results with similar sized blocks. somebody has to make these issues, and somebody has to be the prime minister. if you need the support from the secessionist parties, you are going to try to get it. that is the way politics works. the partner is obviously they cannot rely on the support from any of the regionalists parties because they will be in corporation most likely. that means the pool of candidates from the right is smarter than it would be from the left. it all depends on the results they decide to throw out. >> let's talk about messaging. sanchez is criticized for political alliances. we have been talking about the messaging of messaging and

management of feminist issues, transgender issues. if you are praised on economy and polities he's laid bare after the pandemic. no politician can be one thing to all men and women. you have to choose your battles wisely. he does, as do most politicians heading towards elections across europe. >> and i think we have been -- there was a global pandemic, europe has been facing inflation, a rise in energy prices due to the war in ukraine. there are a number of global issues impacting not just one country, but the continent and large parts of the world. if you are an incumbent leader in these situations, especially as we have talked about, it is a referendum on him, his leadership, his tenure in office, you need to be able to talk about why people should trust you to continue going.

and for that reason, some of the more social culture war type issues are useful to him, what he needs to be doing is saying i will study through these things, i may not have done everything perfectly. but i can be the person to lead the country through further crises or whatever come what may. sort of the baseline functions the economic issues, things like this are huge core of what people are thinking about. >> the left-wing parties will be talking about -- excuse my spanish pronunciation. how they have merged as we have talked about. but yet they are a popularity in that merger with sanchez's party, it has not been realized properly. why have they lost that support? >> i think the loss of support

has merged. doesn't really move forward as they would have liked. a lot of this relies, and i agree with emily, the issue of messaging. i found this very surprising, i have always thought of sanchez, a good campaigner. a lot of the calculation in this early general election relied on his own experience as a campaigner, has managed to come from behind and surprise everybody. i thought he was going to be able to repeat the trick. i have been surprised at how he's been able to make the election about what he wants the election to be about, basically his economic record and his record dealing with the crisis, the pandemic, war on, cost-of-living crisis. it has been relatively successful in dealing with those crises. instead he's being dragged through the culture wars, the issues dominating immigration, transgender rights, feminism,

all of the things he doesn't really want to talk about. he talks about his successes, particularly in the economy and showing leadership across the world. very surprised basically locks has enabled to set the agenda of the election. that is what we have been talking about. >> jose bonito in madrid. the share of the vote of the municipal elections around 31%, no other political party reached double figures. turnout is going to be very important on sunday. especially when europe is in the middle of a heat wave. how do you think it will impact? you can't talk about elections without talking about one of the hottest issues, climate change. >> this was one of the most incredible things about the position of pedro sanchez to call for elections at the end of july.

of course, a holiday country. and the heatwave is particularly strong. and also in madrid. so that didn't make much sense. except if he wanted to have mobilized the voters on the right. i don't think this strategy is going to be successful. it looks like 70% of the people are going to vote. much more than in the past, many have already voted by mail. indeed, it doesn't make much sense to vote in a general election just after the municipal elections in the middle or the start of the holiday vacation. >> interesting to see the

turnout. horsetrading is something we talked about. do the public in spain in your analysis over the years, do you get the sense people in spain are bored with elections, engaged with elections, happy with elections? you look at 31% and 20% of the turnout, it is barely over 50% of the eligible electorate. >> interest and engagement happy , different things. happy i'm not sure. we are seeing a provo. there is a level of engagement. to a great extent, that is probably sanchez -- pedro sanchez's, to appeal to the sense of feeling we have to protect spain against this existential threat from the right and with the legacy of the dictatorship and everything, all of the emotions that there are today.

that is why it is a little bit strange to be calling for the election during a heat wave. perhaps it is not the best time to mobilize the electorate. it will go down in history as either a horrendous calculation by a socialist government or masterstroke by an uncanny political operator. we will find out at the end of the election. >> you touched on another question i wanted to ask. jose in madrid, it is about the effect of the franco dictatorship years left on spain. in the stamp it has left in terms of democracy and how politics has developed in the country. do people still have a tinge of understanding the franco years? does it influence still remain strong within the electorate and political sphere? >> i don't think that is the

case. the civil war started 90 years ago. the legacy certainly for the younger people, and also for my generation, a generation that went through my credit transition through my eyes is really not that strong. another story is the political rhetoric often used by the extremes. and again here, i would stress the fact that on one hand, there is extreme political rhetoric of the two groups on the left and on the side, but each one of them around 13% to 14%. this is really not the mainstream of the spanish electorate. what people want, like everywhere in the world that this very moment, is more security, more concern for the

existential threats they have been having through the different crisis, and they want a government that protects them, i think this is the feeling here. >> coming closely to the end of our program. spain is no stranger to political elections. they actually have the presidency before european elections in 2024. how focused do you think other european capitals are going to be on madrid over the weekend, considering the shift to the left or to the right can sometimes influence politicians across the continent? >> i think as a result of that, there is a great deal of attention. also in capitals across the continent, because first of all, depending on how long a coalition negotiation takes, it can have impacts on the direction of the spanish

presidency over the next five and a half months. there is an immediate aspect to it. because we see some political trends crossing borders, there is very much a sense people are attuned to what is happening elsewhere across europe as potential a harbinger of what is to come. when we have european elections on the horizon next spring, this is something all countries will be grappling with in the coming months. there is a sense, this is one data point on the path towards those european elections. >> a poignant point to end our conversation. thank you very much for joining us on this edition of inside story. thank you to our guests. thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website at al jazeera.com. that is facebook.com/a.j.inside

story. join the conversation on twitter. our handle is a.j. inside story. for the entire inside story team, thank you for your time.

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