out now. scribe wherever you listen to podcasts. adrian: the ethiopian prime minister says is landlocked country will get direct access to a port. abiy ahmed wants to increase economic growth, but how far is he prepared to go, and what could ethiopia's neighbors offer? this is "inside story." ♪ hello. welcome to the program. i'm adrian finighan. ethiopia has been landlocked since eritrea gained its

independence in 1993. for 30 years, it's been dependent upon its neighbors, especially djibouti, for access to ports and international shipping routes. ethiopia's prime minister abiy ahmed says the high costs are unsustainable. he has reportedly said that ethiopia will secure direct access to a port peacefully, or if necessary, by force. what does he mean, and what are the implications for neighboring nations? we will be discussing all of this in a few moments with our guests, but first, this report. reporter: the port of djibouti is situated on one of the busiest shipping routes in the world. 95% of ethiopia's imports and exports pass through here. ethiopia has been landlocked since eritrea gained independence in 1993. the port of assab handled two-thirds of ethiopia's trade for five years, until war broke out between the neighbors in 1998. since then, it's relied on other ports in the region.

ethiopian prime minister abiy ahmed says the status quo is costly and unsustainable. he wants ethiopia to have a port of its own. he reportedly told a meeting of investors and businessmen last week that ethiopia will get a port by peaceful means, but if that fails, it will use force. in a bid to tap into shipping routes, the governments recently started negotiations with its neighbors, and has reportedly offered eritrea a 30% stake in the national carrier in exchange for direct access to its port. ethiopia has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. in its 2023 world economic outlook, the international monetary fund protected gdp will increase 13.5% this year. but the government says development is being held back. it seems determined to address this, something neighboring countries will be following closely.

adrian: let's bring in our guests for today's discussion. we're joined by kemal hashi mohamoud, a member of the ethiopian parliament. in london is martin plaut, a journalist specializing in the horn of africa. he's also a fellow at the institute of commonwealth studies at the university of london. and from washington, d.c. we are joined by kwaku nuamah, who is a senior lecturer and chairman of the international peace and conflict resolution program at the american university. gentlemen, welcome to you all. kemal hashi mohamoud, let's start with you. let's clear up something right from the start. did abiy ahmed actually say that he would get access to a port by peaceful means, negotiation, or by force if necessary? and if he did make those remarks, how seriously should we take them? kemal: thank you for having me on the show.

i know it has been reported that he said by force or by peace. [indiscernible] i don't expect that from the prime minister. [indiscernible] we share borders, we also share nationalities. [indiscernible] there's no way force will be an option. but the necessity of the port is very clear and crucial.

[indiscernible] adrian: martin, what do you make of this? is this the kind of thing that abiy ahmed would say, and if he did say this, perhaps he was misinterpreted? martin: it is possible that he was misinterpreted, but quite frankly, if you have the media in ethiopia reporting this and it is incorrect, you would expect the ethiopian government to put out an official statement saying no, this is wrong, this is not what we believe. so i think we have to assume that he did say it. i mean, frankly, it is slightly unhinged. it's interesting, we've just come through a war between

eritrea and ethiopia combined just against the region of tigray, and they were not able to defeat the tigrayans. they had to end up with a peace agreement which was on both terms, shall we say, terms on both sides. so the idea that the ethiopians are going to project force and defeat, who? eritrea, djibouti, kenya, somalia, sudan? i don't know, but it seems pretty unlikely. i think it is just one of those things that he might have said off the top of his head. adrian: when i meant misinterpreted, could he perhaps have been talking about economic force? there is in in charge of an economy which has 13.5% predicted gdp this year, a growth of 13.5%. martin: you have to be careful with that figure, because that figure really is a rebound from the war. the growth rates are probably only about 7% or 8% a year.

they are still substantial, they are very good growth rates, and ethiopia certainly needs to have access to the sea. i am not arguing about that. but there is no need to go around demanding it by force. there is no reason why anyone would deny him. adrian: kwaku, what do you make of it? how seriously should we take abiy ahmed? kwaku: i just hope that for his own sake and for the sake of africa that he was just joking or that he was misquoted, because there is no way that he could grab somebody's port and get away with it. it is not going to stand. it would trigger international and regional sanctions right away, and ethiopia does not need this type of disruption anymore. after the war, they have got a lot of work to do, and he doesn't need this kind of disruption. adrian: so who would these comments have been aimed at in the first place? eritrea perhaps, or a domestic audience? if it was eritrea, i thought relations were on a much better

footing with eritrea since the 2018 peace deal. kwaku: it can only be for domestic consumption, because there is nothing to be gained from threatening any of his neighbors. eritrea, he has good relations with eritrea. the relationship is not exactly where it should be, but if he has hopes of using assab, which is probably the port they want to use to export some of the stuff that is coming out of central ethiopia, he cannot be threatening them. he's already trying to renegotiate deals with djibouti, which is a place where he needs to focus on. and he has other deals going with kenya, trying to develop a port, and in sudan, talks have started there. those of the kind of things he needs to be doing. if he is doing this for domestic

consumption, it's dangerous. and it can also lead to unintended consequences inside of eritrea itself. the regime in eritrea is unpredictable, and they can seize on such comments to try and build legitimacy, by muscling out some of the actors that they think are in league with the government, even though they themselves seem to have worked out their relationship, because they have a common enemy in the tigrayan nationalists. but this can be dangerous on both sides. adrian: kemal, picking up on what kwaku was saying there, can ethiopia afford a military conflict right now? if it came to that over a port, we're all saying that possibly it would not go that far, that the prime minister's comments are to be taken with a pinch of salt here, but ethiopia just simply cannot afford it right

now, can it? kemal: i don't think it's an issue of affordability. [indiscernible] you could never say that. it is a very dangerous thing. [indiscernible] i don't see where this is coming.

[indiscernible] adrian: ok. martin -- kemal: [indiscernible] adrian: ok. martin, the u.s. has recently lifted sanctions after concluding that ethiopia is no longer engaging in a pattern of gross violations of human rights. do you think that abiy ahmed would have made comments such as the ones that he has been

reported to have made about the use of force if those sanctions had still been in place? martin: it is a very good question, especially as there are so many examples of gross human rights abuses by ethiopia, which the united states certainly knows about. i mean, you know, it is slightly odd because the chinese have just renewed the rail connections with djibouti, and they are pretty good now. and there is no reason why that should not be developed. as has been said, the eritrean ports of assab and another are both available and could be used. and a port in kenya has been talked about, and the ethiopians have put some money into that and it is possible they could get something in sudan or even somalia. so there's lots of options. but i am afraid that prime minister abiy tends to have these delusions of grandeur and

makes these strange statements. i don't know if you know, but he has just built himself a $10 billion palace. why? the country doesn't need it, the -- he doesn't need it. why is he doing it? i have no idea. also he's talked about starting an ethiopian navy. where is he going to put this? adrian: i was going to ask you, there's talk of using force for a port, obviously ethiopia needs a port for economic reasons, but do you think in abiy ahmed's mind that he has a view to restarting an ethiopian navy? martin: yes, absolutely. that is exactly what he has said. the french at one time said that they would help him to do this, to rebuild it. the port was started with the help of the british in what is now independent eritrea.

i think they had three or four bases there in the islands. and ethiopia had a pretty good little navy. it was very well run. unfortunately when eritrea became independent, they lost the base. that went astray. but let's not forget that assab has been used by foreign nations to project power. the saudis and the uae both used it during the war against the houthi in yemen. so it is not as if eritrea is opposed to having foreign bases on its soil. it could be done, but you have to negotiate it, and saying you are going to use force is crazy. adrian: kwaku, picking up on what martin was saying just a few moments ago, where do you think that ethiopia would be looking to build its port? in eritrea, in djibouti? of course djibouti has a virtual monopoly over maritime trading in the region. or this port in somaliland, which geographically is closest.

would berbera make sense from a strategic perspective? but what are the ramifications of that for somalia and eritrea if ethiopia were to build this port in somaliland? kwaku: berbera makes sense because of proximity, but building there is a de facto reclamation of the independence of somaliland, and that is not good. that is not going to fly in the african union. but the way to get around that is to work within egad. so you probably have to solve their secession problem before berbera becomes a real option, because you don't want ethiopia going behind africa and recognizing somaliland while somalia is still contesting that. djibouti, i think djibouti is the other place, because it already has the logistics, it already has the relationship with djibouti.

i understand that the port fees are very high, but you negotiate, you talk about that. and if relations with eritrea are getting better, assab is also a possibility. it is close to central ethiopia, where their industrial parks are. so that is what you do. you don't threaten anybody, you don't make reckless statements that can reignite conflict in an already turbulent regime. that helps nobody. so that is what i think they need to do, sit down and renegotiate the port fees in djibouti, talk to eritrea, try and get access to the ports there, and then maybe look at the other option. berbera, you have to be careful how you do that, because that would be de facto ignition of an associating country.

adrian: kemalk, what do you as a member of the ethiopian parliament make of these reports that eritrea was offered a stake in ethiopian airlines in return for a deal over its port in assab? i understand that deal is now off the table, but what do you make of the fact that it was even discussed? kemal: well, i think -- [indiscernible]

i am pretty sure the government will do whatever is possible. [indiscernible]

adrian: martin, what do you make of those reports about the stake in ethiopian airlines being offered to eritrea? you started to expand upon -- would you like to expand upon your thoughts about where ethiopia would want to site this port? martin: well, i mean, i think if i was an eritrean i would be delighted to have a stake in a successful a project as ethiopian airlines. it is one of the really successful airlines in africa. once it was fighting with kenyan airlines, south african airlines, but it's streets ahead of everybody else now, and is fantastically well run -- it certainly was until very

recently. and let's see. i mean, i would be very happy to have that if i were an eritrean, but i would be surprised if ethiopia was prepared to give it up. i still think that the port of assab, which has been lying essentially unused since the border war in 1998 to 2000 with eritrea. and all you have to do is basically rehabilitate it, send back the ethiopians who used to live there and used to act as the stevedores, and provide a lot of employment. it would be a great idea, and it would earn money for the eritreans. and there is one other thing which is there is a huge potash deposit on the border between eritrea and ethiopia. and there is no reason why that should not be developed. now, the chinese have taken a big stake in it.

that would mean building another port probably, because it is such a big project. it's a 200-year project. so there's lots of things that they could cooperate on, but it does require talking, and waving a big stick and saying you are going to use force is not the way forward. adrian: you mentioned china, martin. what about gulf nations and their continuing engagement in the horn of africa. what does that mean for ethiopia's plans? martin: well, it does mean that they are competitors, but they are competitors with everybody. you know, the uae has huge investments in a lot of the ports. for example, they had a big stake in djibouti, they have stakes in the somali ports. and yes, of course you have got to fight for your commercial rights, shall we say, within this. but i think these should be peaceful competitions, and there's no reason why other ports should not be developed and should become very successful. i mean, the horn of africa has huge potential, but it does need to learn to live with itself in

a peaceful way. and if that can happen, there is no reason why it should not develop and become real boon to the whole of africa. adrian: kwaku, as martin was saying, the region has huge potential. is large-scale economic integration, do you think, a possibility in the near future, or a pipe dream? can neighboring nations benefit from ethiopia's rapid economic growth riding on its coattails? kwaku: absolutely. ethiopia is the largest country, over 120 million people, expected to double in population in 30 years. their economy is growing. and because it needs its neighbors, because it doesn't have access to the sea, there is interdependence built into that relationship. and so with a little bit of creative thinking, you can have

a regional economy that works for everybody. they need to talk. and ethiopia cannot be threatening anybody. they already have problems with egypt over the dam. it does not need any more conflict. and some regional organizations like igad need to get involved. they have been talking a lot about promoting regional trade. the africa continental free-trade area initiatives. everybody talks about promoting intra-african trade. this is a golden opportunity to solve problems and create jobs for everybody in the region and everybody can benefit if they work together. so, we don't need threats, we don't need conflict. adrian: if we assume for a moment that his comments were directed at a domestic audience, they were not for international consumption, you mentioned tension with egypt. do you think that abiy ahmed is the man to -- while his plans

are perhaps necessary, as far as economic growth in ethiopia is concerned, do you think that abiy ahmed is the man who can negotiate the right deal for ethiopia and the region? kwaku: well, he did win a nobel peace prize, so i hope he can make peace again. he has made peace with neighbors before. he made peace with eritrea, he made peace with sudan, he made peace with djibouti. so he can do so again. and i hope that people in his party at home are encouraging him to seek cooperation. also, he made this statement in front of investors. no forward investor wants to move to a region where there is conflict, and so this is one of the ways to scare off foreign direct investment. he needs to stop that talk and figure out how to make peace. because he has made peace in the past, he can do so again. adrian: martin, would you agree

with that? martin: oh, absolutely. one of the interesting things is actually the relationship with egypt has now improved. they have agreed to find some way of dealing with the key issue, which is the grand renaissance dam which was built on the blue nile, and which the egyptians and sudanese were very worried about. but it is only a hydroelectric dam, it is not going to use the water for ethiopian irrigation. so the egyptians seem to be a bit more happy about it, and it is going to produce a lot of electricity, some of which will be available in sudan, maybe further afield. and so you begin to see an alternative for ethiopia where it ties into the region, develops the region, works with the region, and is a dynamo for growth. and that is certainly a possibility. but one of the big problems is that one of the neighbors in eritrea, their president, is

very unpredictable. and you can never be sure where he is going to stir up conflict again. so it's a tough region, hard to work in, but it can be done. and ethiopia could be a bastion of both development and peace if it's led in the right way. adrian: i come back, martin, to my very first question, the question i asked some 25 minutes ago, about whether the prime minister should be taken seriously here. obviously not. martin: well, you always have to take a prime minister seriously. but i would always judge people more by their actions than by their words. let's not forget that when they fermented a war against tigray, they plotted it for two years. it was a two-year preparation by ethiopia and eritrea to attack tigray. they never mentioned it. so let's look at the actions rather than the words. adrian: ok. there, gentlemen, i'm afraid we have to end it.

many thanks to you all. kemal hashi mohamoud, martin plaut, and kwaku nuamah. as always, thank you for watching. you can see the program again at any time by going to the website at aljazeera.com. for further discussion join us on our facebook page at facebook.com/ajinsidestory. and you can join the conversation on twitter. our handle, @ajinsidestory. from me, adrian finighan, and the team here in doha, thanks for watching. we'll see you again. bye for now. ♪

man: the watts towers have been a focal point of creativity for a long time. different man: i knew who i was. i knew that i was an artist. different man: they were working out of a shared need to communicate something based on what they had to work with. woman: because that's what we fought for, the ability to be free to say what we wanted to say. man: you got to a use your art as a tool to bring about social change. woman: we have fine art in watts, and it's been going on 61 years because of the watts towers art center campus.