sohail: another coup in west africa. soldiers in niger have seized power and removed the democratically-elected president. what does it mean for the fight against armed groups in the sahel, and how do military takeovers cripple democracy in africa? this is "inside story." ♪ sohail: hello, welcome to the program. i am sohail rahman. tinniger's president mohamed bam

was elected two years ago in the first peaceful democratic transition of power since independence in 1960. but on wednesday, members of his own presidential guard removed him from office. the coup leaders say they want to prevent further economic and security problems. niger's neighbors, mali and burkina faso, have seen for -- four military takeovers since 2020. so, what does this mean for western countries who have increasingly relied on niger as a base of operations against armed groups in the sahel? with the wagner group mercenaries already active in several african nations, will these developments increase russia's influence on the continent? we will be discussing this in a few moments with our guests. but first, this report from victoria gatenby. victoria: soldiers surround niger's national television station in the capital niamey. [gunshots] victoria: as well as the residence of president mohamed bazoum. hours later, they announced the president's removal. >> we, the security defense

forces gathered at the national council for the safeguard of the homeland, have decided to put an end to the regime you know. this follows the continuous deterioration of the security situation, and poor social and economic management. victoria: the united nations , african union, regional bloc ecowas, and the united states have all demanded bazoum's reinstatement. sec. blinken: the united states resolutely supports him as the democratically elected president of niger. we call for his immediate release. we condemn any effort to seize power by force. victoria: bazoum's inauguration two years ago was the first peaceful transfer of power between democratically-elected leaders since the country gained independence from france in 1960. when al jazeera spoke to bazoum last year, he was optimistic about the future. pres. bazoum: i think the difficulties are behind us. we succeeded in a democratic change of power. i symbolize a hope, simply a hope for the end of the ethnic issues and the relationship to

power. victoria: niger is one of the world's poorest nations. for decades, it struggled with drought and food shortages, which has led to unrest and ethnic conflict. but more recently, niger has faced another challenge, the rise of armed groups and an increase in attacks in the sahel region. frustrations about the worsening insecurity has been a driving force for coups. neighboring mali and burkina faso have seen four military takeovers in the past three years. >> i think there is a real question that washington has to be asking itself right now. if, after all this money and attention and engagement and assistance, if we cannot keep niger on a democratic path, then what are we doing wrong? victoria: since mali and burkina faso ordered foreign troops to leave last year, france and the u.s. have increasingly relied on niger as a base of operations against isil and al qaeda affiliates. russian mercenaries are also active in the sahel. the consequences of the coup

will be felt far beyond niger's borders, raising doubts about the resilience of democratic governments in a region plagued by instability. victoria gatenby for "inside story." ♪ sohail: well, for more on this, i am joined now. in the nigerian capital of abuja is kabir adamu, the managing director of beacon consulting, a security risk management and intelligence firm that operates in the sahel. in paris is nicholas norbrook, the managing editor of "the africa report" magazine, which covers pan-african politics and business. and in london, alex vines, director of the africa programme at chatham house. a warm welcome to all of my guests. thanks for joining us here on "inside story." kabir adamu, can i come to you first in abuja? niger is not the first, and i doubt it is going to be the last, country to experience a coup in the region. they happen pretty often. but what is going wrong here? kabir: thank you. what the coup plotters have

announced as their reasons, they have mentioned two things, security and the economy. however, the reality of what we see in niger and other countries is when the military takes over, they are not able to address these two issues. in terms of what is actually happening on the ground, sadly, the sahel region and most parts of west africa have been afflicted by different elements, especially the influence of nonstate armed groups that are ideologically based. so in particular, there are several ideological groups that are affiliated with the global terrorist groups, islamic state, al qaeda. niger has its share of influence of groups. to an extent, yes, security is a challenge. and then, of course, the economy, too.

what happened after covid-19. and then, of course, the impact of the russian invasion of ukraine being felt by the countries in the sahel and west africa. so all of these are realities. sadly, the claim that the military would be in a better position to address that has not been factual. sohail: we will delve into that as we continue with the conversation. nicholas norbrook in paris, let's start with the initial rumors of the appointment of a new presidential guard, which seems to have been the flashpoint for the coup, or the rebellion, however we want to describe it. it seems to have spread much wider to the military, to a full-blown coup. is that a fair assessment, that this was simmering all the time? or has it come as a complete shock? nicholas: i think it came as a shock to president bazoum. even last night, he was sending us text messages saying the other elements of the army will be here soon. it is just the presidential guard which is involved in this

coup. so, i think he and a lot of other people are very surprised at the widespread nature of it. we understand elements of the police are involved, as well as most of the army, and of course, this presidential guard, which ironically has had a great deal of investment put into it over the last few decades to try and stave off the coup attempts, which have plagued niger since it gained its independence in the 1960's. sohail: let's cross over to alex vines to develop that. because obviously, it is interesting. you invest so much in your military and in your security because you are a big player in the region, to try and not just defend your own country, but your borders. and that very group of people, alex, turn on you. are you surprised with the way things have happened so very quickly?

alex: no. we have seen a pattern here. so, you are absolutely right. one of the problems in the sahelian area is there has been a lot of investment in security. so, building up presidential guards, you can call them praetorian guards. the presidential guard in niger is 2000 strong. so, the unintended consequence is that the one institution that is well resourced and is better trained is the military, and particularly the elite units. and the unintended consequence is that you turn fragile straits into brittle ones, and you start to get a very frustrated broader population and interest groups encouraging the military to stage a coup. now, they all claim they are for peace, security, fair play, justice, and equity, but what we are also seeing, and there was a

very good undp report launched weeks ago that interviewed 8000 people across these countries like mali, burkina faso, and niger where there's been coups, on what people actually want ultimately, and it is about better security. the only good news is the end goal is better democracy. but the interviews show a lot of buyer's remorse because, as your previous speaker said, the military is just not equipped to provide better security long-term, and certainly not democracy. sohail: we will talk about security and democracy just a little bit later. one more question to kabir adamu about the current situation, the swiftness of the coup. i mean, you heard alex saying he was not surprised from the analysis that chatham house has. from where you are in abuja in west africa, is nigeria surprised by what is going on? kabir: yeah. i mean, given the statement by the president, who is the

current chairman, immediately after the news emerged, he issued a statement. he followed that by sending out a delegation. so, it appears he is surprised. there is caution also around what has been described by intelligence. putting that forward, talked about sudan. how sudan happened. it appears the intelligence capabilities of not just african countries but western countries too were either unaware or were caught off guard. so, the same thing with this development in niger. it appears that the state institutions and the channels that the intelligence platforms represent were probably not aware or not ready for such a development, and that is why we saw a visit from the leader to the nigerian president, and then the result of that was a delegation.

but most significantly was the inability of the delegation that was sent by the president to prevent the total collapse of the government in niger. and more important, to also secure the release of the elected president. because, as it were, he is still in detention at the moment. so, yeah. it appears the nigerian state and the ecowas chair were unaware of the development in niger. sohail: nicholas, let's go back to you in paris. corruption, greed, the temptation of absolute power. the phrase "absolute power corrupts." what is it that attracts the military to think they can do a better job than democratically-elected officials? be they good or bad, they are democratically elected by the people. nicholas: it is a tough one. just to pick up on the previous point on the failure of intelligence, it is all the more

surprising when the man who is believed to be behind this putsch, general abdurahman tchiani, who is the head of this praetorian guard, presidential guard that we have been speaking about, he is none of that. -- he is known about. he is a known quantity. when president bazoum's successor, issoufou, was about to hand over the presidential chair two days before the inauguration, there was an attack on the presidency, and there were rumors that this general tchiani was behind it then, rumors which have never really been dispelled. so, it is surprising that niger intelligence, partner intelligence agencies, had not been able to catch it. in terms of what these military elites believe they are doing, it is very hard to tell, but it

does seem that the consequences for their actions are not really being felt. or at least they don't feel much deterrence either from western partners who have poured in a lot of cash, and there was a visit in february, i believe, by the u.k. minister for africa. there was a visit by antony blinken, the u.s. secretary of state, in march. in april, the german defense minister was there. there has been an incredible amount of money poured into the military. but no deterrence. and no deterrence felt from the region. there was a time when nigeria was considered the gendarme of west africa. that is no longer the case, clearly. sohail: no, it isn't. alex vines, as you analyze the way we've seen so many coups in that region in the last four to five years, we think of mali and burkina faso. where do groups like ecowas and

the african union stand in trying to encourage nationbuilding? yes, they may be focused on the economy, they may be focused as groups that deal with the politic of countries, but they also have a responsibility to maintain that level of hope of democracy, don't they? hope of bringing countries forward, the postcolonial periods. alex: yeah, so, it is definitely a concern, as you mentioned. since 2020, we have had seven coups and three attempted coups. those are really confirmed ones, and may be a bunch of others. i would kind of say that ecowas, we've got a new tinubu administration, a new nigerian president, who has a vision for the region, who cares, looking at how he rebuilds the community. i was in abuja myself only a couple weeks ago. there was a summit about these particular issues.

they were really concerned about niger in particular, as well as burkina faso, and what to do with mali. so, i would not say there has been a complete intelligence failure here. there were concerns around elite disputes inside niger, particularly between the current president, president bazoum, and his predecessor, president issoufou, who was much more closely aligned with general omar tchiani. i'm not sure i agree that tchiani was involved in the attempt of the march 2021 coup. i think he actually stopped it. going forward, it is about how can the economic community of west african states become more effective, more efficient? and really not just be condemning coups with words, but actually with actions. i think that is what has been drawn out really urgently now with niger, because niger is not just strategic and important for

the west, it is equally important for nigeria. and so, a lot of focus is now being put onto how to convince the putschists to back down. that is what is going on right at the moment. sohail: kabir adamu in abuja, the modus operandi, the situation seems to reflect what we have seen in the region. i will ask nicholas the answer to this question as well, but i will start with you first. i am going to quickly briefly summarize it. military takeover, borders close, military offices address the nation, regional bodies like the au condemned the coup, sanctions are put in place, delegation sent in to talk, delegations free president who goes into exile, military remain in power, promise elections that never really happen openly, regional bodies lift sanctions, western countries that condemned the action restore diplomatic and economic relations, the end. it seems to be going partly to script. kabir: exactly, and i think this

is related to your earlier question on what the incentive for this military office to take over the government. sadly, we have not seen any consequences. in almost all of the six coups that have happened from 2020 to date, we have not seen any direct consequences on them. sohail: nicholas, can i bring you in here in paris? that is the reality. this is what we have seen repeated again and again. alex is also nodding in agreement, so i think we are all on the same page here. nicholas: absolutely. the script you outlined is eerily accurate. and i don't know if there is any shortcuts to it. i wouldn't remove agency, though, from those delegations. and, you know, i absolutely take the point that the tinubu administration may have much more force than the buhari

administration, which ran nigeria for the previous eight years, had. but certainly when president basinger was in charge and nigeria was very comfortable projecting military force in the region, that script wasn't really adhered to. and sometimes, coup plotters found themselves chased violently out of office. which, while you can't allow violence of any sort, that kind of incident, there might be retribution. so, we can only hope that we will see a different script emerging. and local actors. don't forget, nigeria is two thirds of the economy in west africa. it is a serious player. and if nigeria's foreign policy becomes much more muscular, i

think the script can be flipped. sohail: alex, you were nodding in agreement through that. alex: it is a big difference, that you've got a lot more ambition. that basically the new nigerian foreign policy of tinubu is a robust response. there is one thing that tinubu and the incoming officials are beginning to emerge around him, or they have common vision, and that is they don't like military dictatorships. they all learned their craft when they were dealing with opposing the abacha administration in nigeria. so, this is a very different nigeria. and i think this is where the putschists may have miscalculated. the big neighbor next door is going to be more proactive and a lot more influential than western partners, be they france, e.u., or the united states. sohail: if we look at the region itself and the countries that surround niger, bazoum took

power two years ago, and with military coups happening around the region. the fallout of libya's civil war, coupists and in mali and burkina faso, all challenges his country had to deal with. but there were internal ones, too. what were they that evident? nicholas? nicholas: it is hard to know whether they got to that kind of level. the handover from issoufou to bazoum was held up at the time as being a real.breakthrough for the region at the time, there was a lot of attempt to rewrite constitutions to allow a third term for presidential -- people in the presidency. and niger's issoufou said, i'm

not going to do that. i'm not going to go on forever. i've had my two terms. i will designate who i would like in my party to succeed me, my defense minister, bazoum. so, when that handover went over relatively well, a lot of people were pretty hardened for the region. i will tell you something else let happened in 2021, and that was the death of another president, who was doing a lot of the heavy lifting. niger was the only one doing that wrong. it is a matter of huge question marks. sohail: let's talk about security, move the conversation on. we have a good sense of what is going on in niger. we have seen western forces pulled out of countries, security partners in mali, for example. the u.s. is on the back foot, so

is france, dealing with the insurgencies, trying to help its african friends. we are seeing russia come in as an alternative to the failures of various military operations. how do you assess the situation right now in terms of importance of niger, where the u.s. and france do have troops? kabir: the geopolitics of the western nations is playing out in africa in very clear terms. and sadly, we are seeing both state institutions and nonstate actors, wagner, acting separately. even in the nigerian coup, there have been suggestions that there are actors who may be affiliated with some of those countries. if i am going to give a prognosis, this is likely to be over the next few years. there has also been suggestions that perhaps because of the russian invasion of ukraine,

that type of interest has dwindled from a geostrategic point in africa, especially the sahel region, where the two global terrorist affiliates have been growing, i.s. and al qaeda. it is this type of impact and consequence on security we are seeing over time. but at the top of all of this, good governance. so much has happened institutionally and structurally that has allowed this type of development that leads to a coup. sadly, both the multilateral, regional, and global institutions, we discussed ecowas, e.u. as well, do not speak enough around good governance. the lack of care and action to

allow leaders who sadly are not helping enough of their people. it allows develop its like we are seeing in niger. sohail: there seems to be an opportunity here. while niger is in flux, and wagner and russia, as well as the u.s. and france, vie for security supremacy. there is a conference going on right now in st. petersburg between russia and african nations. and i can't help but think they will be discussing this behind closed doors. is this an opportunity for president putin? alex: we will see. i received a twitter -- or x photo, as it is called now -- of the chief of wagner meeting a particular ambassador in st. petersburg as part of a fringe meeting.

you've got burkina faso and mali represented there. and so, clearly the russians are always looking for opportunity. mr. pprishogan has announced he will continue to focus on africa, and he is clearly doing that today in st. petersburg. whether the incoming military putschists will reach out to russia, let's see. but they will certainly find that the russians are knocking on their door. the russians were knocking very loudly on the door of the burkina faso junta. but up to now, they have said, we don't want russia to be involved with us. sohail: we are coming very closely to the end of our program. nicholas norbrook, very quickly,

there is such a thing as civil society in most countries, and one assumes there is such a society in niger as well who tried to support the president and faced gunfire. where do you think the public stand now in niger? is there a voice or has it been silenced? nicholas: i don't think there is the site of middle class that you see. but as you can see from the pictures yesterday, there were crowds who came out immediately in support of the president, who are not keen in seeing their country being dragged down the direction of their neighbors. and while there may be have for you -- while there may have been a few russian flags in the crowd yesterday we are relatively sure that is opportunistic and indicate some kind of groundswell. it should be said that since

february, prigozhin's project, which is a big disinformation on social media project run by prigozhin's companies, that has already been spreading since february misinformation in niger. so this is something that is absolutely on the radar of moscow. i would be very surprised if they were not going to try and at least take advantage of these events. sohail: it is a fast-moving story, and one that is still developing even as we speak. i would like to thank all of my guests for joining us on this edition of "inside story. kabir adamu, nicholas norbrook, and alex vines. thank you for watching. you can see the program by biz in your website at al jazeera.com. go to facebook.com/ajinsidesto ry. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, sohail rahman, and the

"inside story" team, things very much for your time and cut -- thank very much for your time and company.

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