border. -- poland sends troops to the belarus border. how will the ukraine war affect ukraine's -- poland's future? this is inside story. sohail: welcome to the program. poland has been playing a

central war in the war in ukraine. it is a destination for millions of refugees. since the end of the soviet union, relations with russia have never been warm. membership of the european union and nato has seen the former soviet bloc country become a major nation in western alliances. but at times relationships have been strained. lastly, tensions boiled over in a fight between ukraine and poland, when a polish minister accused ukraine of lacking gratitude. intervention by president zelenskyy was needed to cool things down. relations between poland and neighboring belarus are at an all-time low. more polish troops are being sent to the border. leaders in worse are accuse minsk of violations.

poland was also angered by belarus helping african migrants travel toward the polish border to get into that eu. poland imposed its own grain embargo after ukrainian supplies into europe since the war began brought prices down, hitting the poland's vital agricultural sector ahead of the general election in october. there up in calls to widen the embargo. while united with eu allies militarily, poland is involved in disputes too. the european court of justice says polish changes to how judges are appointed are illegal. the polish justice minister called the european court corrupt. the e.u. is also withholding aid to poland with serious disputes

over green energy. there is strong unity with the e.u. over russia, seen as a direct threat to poland. >> there are all kinds of attacks right now on the borders. we have been seeing them for the past two years. russia and belarus are increasing the pressure on our borders. they are increasing the number of provocations and we have to be aware a number of the provocations will increase. sohail: the kremlin says pulling his become of the most pro-western european power hostile to russia. >> their existing risks with the militarization of poland. warsaw announced its intention to build the most powerful army on the continent. in this regard, purchases of weapons have begun from the united states of america, great

britain and korea. let's bring in our guests. in warsaw, liliana smiech, president of the warsaw institute, a polish nonprofit think tank specialising in geopolitics and international affairs. in berlin, ben aris, founder and editor-in-chief of bne intellinews, a business media company focusing on emerging markets. also, michal baranowski, senior fellow and managing director at german marshall fund east, a nonprofit, transatlantic organization. a warm welcome to inside story. in warsaw, when it comes to any potential aggression from russia, warsaw accuses belarus

of effect and in an advance on its borders from wagner group. how worried should we be? >> it all depends on what the wagner group will do in belarus. we have considered belarus as basically military space of russia. belarus is losing 70. the wagner group and nuclear weapons are coming. poland is on the front of this confrontation with russia, given that 90% of military aid to ukraine goes through poland and poland is becoming a strong nato ally along with spending over 40% on defense this year. sohail: how worried should we be about the buildup of russians ally on the belarus border? >> russia has been using bell

arrests as a launchpad for its -- using belarus as a launchpad for its aggression against ukraine. there are reports this morning saying that lukashenko has actually kicked the wagner group's out. we are waiting for confirmation on that story. the wagner troops have unsettled everyone. they have established a reputation of being ferocious fighters. having such a people who force in belarus has unsettled everybody, poland in particular. lukashenko is a bit of a loose cannon. the chances of belarus and him attacking poland i think are very low. but he likes to mix things up

and buildup tensions, which he uses in his negotiations with vladimir putin. keep in poland on its back foot is definitely useful to put in. -- vladimir putin. sohail: is that a nervous time for the politicians, the critics in warsaw to try to work out what is going on with poland's borders? >> thank you very much for the invitation. the situation is very serious, however, while russia was supposed to get the key in seven days, we need to think about it as a reality. the situation is very difficult,

also poland is spending a lot of money on defense, investing in not just military equipment, but also on domestic one. we need to be realistic. sohail: before i get back to this, how to -- do people assess poland's membership of nato? do they think it is a working to help poland defend its borders? >> i would say nato is our security guarantor and i believe the majority of society would agree with me, so there is no doubt that we need to stand on our defense. and offer poland to encourage

other countries to stand even more. sohail: in your opinion, the russian tactics are changing when it comes to the relationship with belarus and lukashenko. there is this top of nuclear weapons. how strong is the relationship and where the weak points? >> let me first agree [indiscernible] poland is the most pro-nato country that we have in europe. there is no question about the popularity of nato in poland. when we look to belarus and

russia, especially the strategic community, they are seeing basically a connected space. yes, lukashenko is there, but because of crimes against his own people, because of his economic dependence on russia and now because of the presence of the wagner group and nuclear weapons on his territory, we should not consider belarus a separate sovereign country. putin could get rid of lukashenko if he really wants to. lukashenko's main goal is to remain in power. it is no longer any possibility for lukashenko and belarus to balance russia and the west. it is firmly within the group of moscow and that is why when we

see maneuvers close to the borders and poland, this is when we get concerned. sohail: it is interesting the perspective of poland to where you are in berlin. the germans will have a very different take on it. what is the perspective there about what is going on between poland and belarus? >> europe has been divided. that border was open before. there was a huge amount of trade between european union and russia. that border was wide open. there was constantly align the trucks crossing it. what has changed now is we have a fortified and militarized border.

over the last eight months, ukrainians have fortified their part of the border to start the second invasion from the north. poland has seen this incursion from the helicopters last week. the threat of troops in belorussia has unsettled people and poland is also militarizing their part of the border. about a year ago there was the migrate crisis when lukashenko was sending largely middle eastern refugees across the border. it was just opening and that has changed. there is now barbed wire fences and guards there. we have not seen that kind of militarized border in europe for years. sohail: there are several issues

poland is going through. let's go to the relationship of poland and the war in ukraine to the outside world it seems like a very cozy relationship that both ukraine and poland have, but there are issues between poland and the rest of europe with the eu and the court of justice. about jurisdiction, about sovereignty, about who really is in charge of poland. when you have that set in stone, only then can poland deal with its international partners. this has not been resolved between warsaw and brussels. >> i would say the relationship between warsaw and brussels is quite complicated.

however, this crisis has two dimensions. first is the political and also the substantive level. i agree still need some reforms. there are some plans to reform it. there is also another component, which is the political dimension. even last year when the conflict was resolved, however it did not happen.

it is possible poland will not get the money from the next generation fund. sohail: this is an issue that is grinding on as poland heads toward a general election. and yet some analysts said the incumbent political party has been good at demonizing its opposition and minority groups in the space of saying this is for national security and sovereignty. >> that is the argument, but it is very firmly rejected by all the european legal authorities. there is no standing on the issue that the changes the government introduced in the legal system fall within the

rule of law as other european countries have. the issue and this conflict has been almost resolved, but it was in fact president duda who did not sign the law that would correct some of the biggest issues with the rule of law. so i think there is relatively little expectation that if law and justice wins the upcoming parliamentary election that they will fix the issues. i think their expectations that: will begin a longer process of

going back to a judiciary system that has a level of independence , only under a different government than the current one. sohail: we will have to wait and see. president biden was actually in poland earlier in the year, ex-spouse and the virtues of -- espousing the virtues of democracy. the u.s. has to make alliances with countries that have questionable domestic politics and issues over human rights. >> indeed. i think president biden had to go there and give that message because polling needed reminding -- poland needed reminding.

you are supposed to have separation between the judiciary and the government. [indiscernible] economically, it has worked well. before the war, ukraine used to get $3 billion. it is a lot of money. poland has flourished. but they have not bought into the values part of the eu project. it adheres to these more sort of traditional and catholic conservative values, where her family is the most important,

where it is a much more authoritarian top-down administration rather than the liberal democracy we have in germany. >> you are talking we do not have european values. poland welcomed millions of refugees. we did not create any of the refugee camps, but we welcome all of the refugees to our houses, so we gave our hearts to refugees. i would not say that we did not apply european values because european values is for example

solidarity and betty's what poland showed. -- that is while poland showed. sohail: while the global community looks at pollutants reputation -- poland's reputation, their underlying tensions that have been there for many years. one man's hero such as by madera for ukraine is nothing more than a monster for poland. these issues ramble on. this is why president zelenskyy had to get involved recently. >> you are absolutely right that poland and ukraine have a very difficult history, and we have just had an 80th anniversary of the massacre, where lots of p oles as well as ukrainians lost

their lives. the war brought almost a miracle in terms of the depth of polish/ukrainian reconciliation. the polish society welcomed refugees to our homes. history has really become history. i cannot imagine us going back to difficult political relations caused by history that we have seen before the war. the depth of the reconciliation between our two countries is reversible and -- irreversible. sohail: in terms of the grain deal, there is friction between ukraine and poland over cheap ukrainian grading heading through poland and that is up

seven poland and its agricultural finances. how is this all going down at the moment because polling has embargoed ukrainian grading. -- grain. >> it is not just a problem of poland. our main branch of the economy is in agriculture and the farmers were quite accept because of the lower prices of the ukrainian grain. in this case, the interest of producers has won over the interest of [indiscernible] however, i believe we will need some kind of interference of the european commission to solve the issue, especially if we are thinking about the future of

ukraine in the european union. sohail: how much does an issue like grain imports impact issues? >> it says quite a lot about the complicated and difficult relations. ukraine now is completely almost bankrupt. it has been trying to get as much grain by train going west, which arrives in the polish markets. that collapsed the local market and upset the local farmers. the government in poland blocked it. this is poland, ukraine's biggest supporter, but at the same time, they cut them off from the only source of money they can earn at the moment in

trade. the reason is because the election is coming up. polling has been forced to make a choice -- poland has been forced to make a choice between supporting ukraine and winning an election. in the end, it shows its elections. it has hurt ukraine to the point that the ukrainians band sugar exports to poland. and that cause a problem. the poland has asked you for compensation. i think that is what is going to happen, throw some money at it. western europe wants to support ukraine, but wants to limit the amount of economic damage that has been done to its own economies. it is already costing europe a lot of money. poland has shown a lot of

solidarity and the rest of europe has been prepared to take a lot of pain for the sake of ukraine and that is european values. sohail: how important is it to try to restart the grain deal and get russia on board and address russia's concerns that its products were not being sold internationally. it also questioned that the grain that was li bin ukraine was going to -- leaving ukraine was going to poor nations. >> it obviously causes huge repercussions throughout the global south, especially when it comes to hunger, and that could be really fixed easily by president putin sign in the grain deal again. some of this grain can be

transported through poland, through romania, but it will not replace the black seaports. the responsibility for the hunger lies with vladimir putin. i do think we will need to find a longer-term solution because ukraine's agriculture sector is so large that it would require huge changes to the european agricultural policy. it will one ukraine will become an eu member. that is something we will be grappling with for years to come. sohail: in terms of the relationship now between poland and ukraine and poland and the e.u., what is the most value right now to poland as politicians sell their political position as they had toward the

election in autumn? >> i would say that the relationship of poland and poles -- e.u. and relationship between poland and ukraine are completely different things. they will be supporting ukraine and will not stop. the relationship with the e.u. is completely different. ukraine's independence and sovereignty is also our goal. sohail: interesting conversation. it has been great to have you on this edition of inside story. thank you for joining me for inside story. think u.s. while for -- thank you as well for watching. for further discussion, go to our facebook page.

you could also join the conversation on twitter. from the whole team here, thanks for your time and your company.

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