♪ >> is ecuador succumbing to gang violence? what is being done to stop it? this tonight on "inside story." ♪ hello, welcome to the program. i am adrian finighan.

presidential contender assassinated in broad daylight. fernando villavicencio is the third candidate to be killed in a matter of weeks and ecuador. he campaigned on anticorruption platform, accusing government officials of having links to organized crime. ecuador is struggling with rising gang violence and trafficking. the president declared a state of emergency and deploy the army but will it be enough? have criminals taken control of politics and was the shooting a message for other politicians? we will discuss this in a moment but first a report from a reporter. >> this is fernando villavicencio speaking out against organized crime in ecuador. moments later, the 59-year-old presidential candidate was shot and killed. [gunshots] widespread outreach followed, along with demands for justice. >> [speaking spanish]

translator: the candidates and government must make this a priority. i still cannot believe it. i cannot accept it. >> like many candidates, he promised to fight corruption but unlike his rivals, he publicly accused the government of having links to organized crime. >> we carried out a raid and recovered four pistols, machine gun, four boxes of ammunition, a grenade, and two motorbikes under vehicle were reported stolen. reporter: ecuador, once seen as an oasis of peace in the region, has become a key player in cocaine trafficking routes to europe and america. >> [speaking spanish] translator: this is a political crime with all the characteristics of terrorism and we do not doubt this murder is an attempt to sabotage the electoral process. reporter: the president declared

a 60 day state of emergency and deploy the army. translator: we ask people to vote because with the support of armed forces and police, we guarantee the election will be safe. reporter: people are worried and politics. >> [speaking spanish] translator: this not only affects us as citizens but as a country. we are being watched abroad. unfortunately, this gives the wrong impression to people who would like to come here or invest. reporter: police say that is suspected gunmen died in custody after exchanging fire with security personnel. six colombians have been arrested but investigators say a larger criminal network could be behind the assassination. the fbi agreed to look into the case. fernando villavicencio was not the leading candidate. polls suggest he placed fifth among eight contenders and many are questioning if his killing was a warning for all

politicians, particularly the next president. ♪ anchor: let's bring in our guest, joined by a professor of international relations at universitdad san francisco, and from london, a journalist and latin american affairs, and from vancouver, a professor at the school of public policy and global affairs at the university of british columbia, a friend of the late fernando villavicencio. welcome. thank you for being with us on "inside story." for decades, ecuador was one of latin america's least violent countries. now, it has a homicide rate higher than mexico's. what has gone wrong, is it bad luck, geography or bad policy? guest: the thing is, it is

really both but i would rather see the latter. we are witnessing an extremely weak state of controlling the means of violence. it has been going on for a decade at the least, but it seems the last five years, that they have better control of territory, especially in some provinces that are key to drug trafficking. and the national consensus could transform the dramatic situation. surprisingly, corruption is rampant, and at the moment, for example, the threat of violence are immediately part of any equation when it comes to those who try to face or at least announce the corruption, the most visible base was fernando villavicencio in the last -- face was fernando villavicencio in the last years, but he is not the only one.

it is the weakest state in the last decade or so and it will be going on unless there is a huge restructuring, and unless we are talking seriously about the drug war that is going through out the continent. anchor: how much of what is happening now in ecuador can be traced back to the decisions of the former president, ending corporation with the u.s. drug enforcement agency, closing the u.s. military base? one about his successors? why haven't they got a grip on the security situation in the country? guest: basically, they have operated since late 1990's. in fact, mr. fernando villavicencio denounced those who work with the sinaloa cartel in mexico, so even it happened before in the prior presidency, and they worked with another drug cartel in mexico, so they

have been working with the mexicans for many years, and that made it difficult for the government to fight. we do not know whether his decision to stop cooperating with the americans made it easier, but it is clear that there are drug cartels and ecuador, and they are well established and well supported by the mexican bosses, if you like. so it is difficult to pinpoint at two which point the lack of cooperation between the u.s. and ecuador is responsible for what happened, but the fact of the matter is, you have the same operations in other countries of latin america, yet, the drug cartels still operate because they have a lot of networks and contacts, and there is a lot of corruption on the political class. in that respect, assuming, obviously, that this cartel is responsible for the murder of mr. villavicencio, which we do not know yet, but it seems to be

clear that this was a criminal assassination. we do not know yet exactly who it was. los lobos one of the biggest cartels in ecuador and we don't know yet if they claimed responsibility. the defense minister said clearly that what is happening in ecuador is that they are at or with the government, the cartels, the criminal gangs, and that war has to be won. we do not know which cartel is responsible, but they are definitely behind the assassination. anchor: before we get into what is going on right now in the presidential election, i am king to examine the roots of this crisis -- keen to examine the roots of this crisis. to what extent is the violent crime search and ecuador linked to neighboring c0olombia and what happened in 2016 -- colombia and what happened in 2016? guest: it is definitely related

to the peace agreement that spilled over in ecuador and colombia. it has deeper roots. 2003, they decided to use ecuador as a base for their operations, so it has become the main base for the export of cocaine to the u.s. and europe. so it is just as grace jaramillo said, it is an evolution that exploded the last years because of the role of the state, not spending the public expenditure and the interior minister. the beginning of 2023, there are 40 murderers a day in a country of 80 million. everybody is responsible. the cartels from mexico to latin america, the government's from the current contemporary governments, and the murder has been defined as a crime of

state. it is a little too simplistic to just blame it on cartels. anchor: grace, would it be fair to describe ecuador as a narco state right now? is it on the way to becoming a failed state? guest: i hope not, but following up on what manuela also said, nobody is doing anything to restructure the whole situation. and if you take out the democratic controls of their security forces, i mean, we have gone through a position, where all due diligence, whether the military or the police, were geared on how the priority put the narco's or drug cartels at bay since 1990's early. but what the administration has

to be blamed for is to move that security apparatus into political prosecution or hit jobs, so that is what changed dramatically in the state at the beginning. but we have to move from that conversation, into the control of the security apparatus. i would say that is the beginning of the restructuring of the police and forces because they are clearly infiltrated. i think the other aspect of the issue is independence of the judiciary. otherwise, there is impunity throughout. there is no way going about if there is not at least a basic guarantee that you will have elections free from fear of violence. that is the beginning of probably the process of restructuring and starting yet

again to see a different conversation in the upcoming years or starting from now i would say in the upcoming election. anchor: how far does the reach of the criminal gangs spread in ecuador? how corrupt our ecuador's institutions and politics? is the army implicated in any of this? guest: a cartel cannot operate freely without corruption at high levels, political levels, and police. you cannot operate if there is no corruption there. corruption feeds. it is one of the elements that cartels used to be able to operate freely and with impunity. these people have a lot of money. they bribe politicians, the police. and we must not forget this, just on the ninth of august, the day before he was assassinated, mr. fernando villavicencio said,

and i quote, "police no virtues of the criminals, drug dealers, legal minders, and white criminals -- white-collar criminals leave and hide." pinpointed the police forces as part of the problem because they were not doing enough. in some cases because of incompetence, in some cases because of corruption. so it is possible, at least in the police level, that they allow the cartels to operate with such impunity, and mr. fernando villavicencio pinpointed this particular issue in relation to the security forces. they are talking about that quote from the interview on the ninth of august. obviously, there is a connection between the way the cartels operate but also -- the cartels operate, but also the health of the country and how they help them operate in the countries in the region. anchor: before i ask another question, do you have anything

to add? guest: the scandals of narco generals has been widely covered in the u.s. media, international media. it is very clear that fernando villavicencio denounced the day before his death a corruption scandal that was connected to three former governments from the current government and before. so the fact that his family announces the crime of state indicates relations and the collaboration between cartels and government officials. anchor: manuela, will this forthcoming election solve any of ecuador's problems with violent crime? who are the frontrunners? what are they saying about what they do about the situation? guest: umm, it is good to keep in mind that in february, we had municipal elections that were the most violent the history of

ecuador and now current elections have surpassed the level of violence. we have over 60 politicians suffering violent attacks over the last year. fernando villavicencio was the last one, but we had before him, 10 days before the previous assassination with the local official, we had two who were assassinated this last month, there are many politicians and elected officials being assassinated last few weeks. now we have an empty seat. the election is coming up. the proposals are limited in this i'm stacked all the candidates are proposing more police presence. more control of the jails from where the cartels operate. but the root of the matter is really the corruption that is institutionalized within the state. i go back to what grace mentioned a few minutes ago. the correa government worked

with cartels, institutionalized them, and a road that allowed cartels to operate freely in the country. if legal officials do not do it out of their own will, they do it out of menace of threats, and there are few tools available to change the structures of power and that is where the power lies that allows cartels to continue to operate. anchor: what are the implications that fernando villavicencio was murdered for the election? will a contest become polarized as a result of his death? would he have made it through to the second round? guest: we do not know. again, three candidates were actually fighting for second place. we did not know. we do not know still because

they are between 50% and 60% depending on the poles you see -- polls you see of indecisiveness in the country, so the country is disenchanted with elections, the democratic transitions, and the front runner is luisa gonzalez. i really think that fernando villavicencio's death is a game changer because it will force, and in fact, manuela can tell you more about that, there is a call for unity, at least among candidates that are running for i would say the democratic ticket, where the agenda at least is fully uphill -- upheld the democratic principles of free elections, political and social participation, and so on.

i would say that the three i mentioned before, were the ones really rallying for the agenda of upheld democratic principles of probable democratic reform, and the way out i would say is a unity of that front, whatever the differences. there is a huge difference between them in terms of agendas, political support and so on, but still, we are -- ecuador is running against the side from the centerleft to the center-right, all the way to something that is more of an altered agenda, especially with mrs. gonzalez and another candidate that plays or tries to be the new president of el

salvador in ecuador, so that is political situation, and i really think that the death of mr. villavicencio will change it. anchor: grace, he said at the beginning of the program that fernando villavicencio was a friend of yours. what was he like? he was obviously a very brave man. if he had been given the chance to run the country, how would he have sorted out this mess? would he have taken a hard line? guest: we have been acquaintances since a long time more than close friends, but i know him, i knew him since i was 19 years of age, and he was still a university undergrad in social communications, but he was always in debate. i debated him once when i was running for student body, and he was, as well.

he was always feisty, a good debater. he will not lose an argument. he was always very stubborn about fighting for issues, regardless of the issue, and i have seen him a lot throughout the years, especially because he was first at the forefront of confronting corruption in the oil company, and then throughout the years, he would contact me because i used to have a column in the daily newspaper, so he used to talk to me and say, this scandal is huge, you should raise awareness about this. and then most importantly, during the correa administration, when he was denouncing his corruption,

but also more importantly because of the incident of september 30, 2010, when there was a military uprising, and correa ordered his rescue from a hospital. anchor: grace, would he have made a good president? guest: i would say with unity, i do not believe in strong leaders. i would say it takes a village. probably yes with a lot of help from a coalition. we do not know if you would go into the second round, but he definitely was a very good legislator in terms of confronting and the sources of corruption, even confronting legislators and the national assembly, representing those who were part of the corruption network that is big in the country now. anchor: javier, what happens if the country votes for a candidate who says, i know how to fix it, it is my way or the

highway, a hardliner? are there dangers for the country and that? guest: that is a good question indeed. the president of el salvador took a hard line on crime and he has been accused of violating human rights. he should change the constitution the laws, but so far, according to opinion polls from a few days ago, he only had 4% of the vote, but now, they suspect even more assassinations, and he goes to the second round because luisa gonzalez from thecorrea party is ahead with 26% of the vote, so the question on whether they will make it in the runoff or there will be other resignations

, the day would be if somebody who is on the line of the policies and become selected, this could lead to serious authoritarian tendencies within ecuador, which could be equally dangerous. also, if the sinaloa cartel and the other cartels mix and work within ecuador, there are a powerful and they could create massive conflict. in el salvador, there were lots of murders. they have grand cartels from mexico working with cartels within ecuador, and that would be tickled. then, obviously, there would have to be a more hard-line approach to prevent rings like the assassination of mr. villavicencio from happening again. at the same time, there is a danger that this could lead to an authoritarian position which

was adopted in el salvador, which could be dangerous in ecuador. it remains to be seen whether this is going to change. somebody mentioned, a colleague in ecuador said you need a game changer. it remains to be seen who become second because it will be a runoff on more than 50% of ecuadorians who do not know who they will vote for and it remains to be seen how these people who do not know what to do are going to vote for the runoff because it will not be a clear winner in the first round on the 11th of august. anchor: i see you nodding in agreement. guest: yeah. and they raise many questions. the absence of the ministry of the interior is only executing 80% of what is assigned to the minister of interior, so the state is intentional, allowing a lot of angst to operate. and the assassination of villavicencio his a game changer

but who benefits? because it is the extreme left or thecorreisimo who is seen as benefiting from it, but because there are few benefiting from it, the other side is actually benefiting. so they may recover a lot of the votes. so it is not clear yet who will benefit. it is clear that the population is very upset about this killing. it shows the level of vulnerability of ecuadorians, of violence and permissibility of violence and a lack of action from the state, so people will vote in reaction to the killing, and the other 4000 killings from the beginning of the year. the question is, who will inherit the votes from villavicencio? anchor: grace, is there any reason for up missing to the people of ecuador? do they have any reason to be optimistic about the future or is the country headed for

further violence, a chaotic few years ahead, do you think? guest: i do not think there are reasons for optimism, to be honest. unless, and until the democratic forces of the country get united and really confront this marrow -- narrow and gray system of corruption within the system because only a democratic a national unity is there because priority is first and foremost to recover and restore their state and control the means of force. nothing will happen because, as i said, it is not just a strong man rolled to do such a thing. we are witnessing an election that is only going to last or whoever gets the chance of being

president will only last for 18 months, so it needs a lot of political unity, and it is the unity of social forces, secret society organizations, organized and not organized, but also the different innovations that are running to hold the highest offices in the state. it is not an optimistic view, there is a way out, and it will take a lot of struggle and suffering before we, to see a light out of the tunnel. anchor: i am afraid we must stand it. many thanks for being with us. grace jaramillo, javier farje and manuela picq. thank you for watching. you can see the program again at any time by going to the website at aljazeera.com. for further discussion, you can join us on our facebook page. and you can join the conversation on twitter.

from adrian finighan and the team in doha, thank you for watching. we will see you again at 5:30. ♪

♪♪♪ [singing in cantonese] [singing in cantonese] bill birtles: it was the pro-democracy movement's anthem of hope. that somehow, the will of millions of hong kongers would prevail over the might of beijing. ♪♪♪ [singing in cantonese] [singing in cantonese]