>> the worst violence in libya in a year. dozens killed after the commander of an armed group is detained by rivals. the country remains divided, scarred by war and instability. can libya ever unite in peace again? what is its political future? this is "inside story." ♪ hello. welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan. libya's latest surge in violence seems to have settled down, but it once again underlines the country's instability.

there's deep concern internationally about this week's unrest in which dozens of people were killed and many more injured. the african union and western governments are calling for peace. conflict and deep divisions have persisted since muammar gaddafi was overthrown 12 years ago. so what's next for libya? can the divided nation ever be reunited, and what will it take to restore peace? we'll discuss all this with our guests in just a few moments. but first, a report on the latest violence. reporter: an uneasy calm on the streets of tripoli days after the worst fighting in a year between rival factions in libya's capital. dozens of people were killed and more than 100 injured. a truce took hold after one side, the special deterrence force, released this man, mahmoud hamza, a military commander from the 444 brigade armed group. analysts say he's an important figure in the battle for control of the country.

the groups are two of many involved in the stop-start conflict that's plagued libya since the nato-backed revolt the top of the longtime leader -- that toppled the longtime leader gaddafi in 2011. the country is currently split between the u.n. recognized government of national unity headed by prime minister abdul hamid al-dababa in the west and another in the east backed by warlord khalifa hafta. the two rival administrations compete for power through shifting alliances within the armed groups on the ground. de baba has issued an apology and warned against further violence. >> i apologize to the mothers, fathers, sisters, and brothers who lost their children. really apologize to them. all of us libyans are not satisfied with what happened, and we will not be satisfied with it. we will not be silent until we stop this matter. reporter: but three years after libya's warring sides agreed on a permanent ceasefire in what

the u.n. called an historic achievement, it seems there's still no sign of a lasting political solution. >> well, as you heard there, libya has two rival administrations. here's a look at who controls what. in the west, including the capital tripoli, the internationally recognized government of national unity is in power. it's led by prime minister abdul hamid al-baba. that is backed by the un. it controls the area in purple on the map. in the east, warlord khalifa hafta is in power, supported by a parliament in tobruk. he controls the areas in orange. his self-styled army is backed by russia, the united arab emirates, and egypt. and the rest of the country shown in gray is under the control of other armed groups. well, the latest round of fighting in tripoli was between two powerful groups both backed by the un recognized government. the 444 brigade is affiliated with the defense ministry and is reputed to be libya's most

disciplined. it controls the southern suburbs of tripoli and other areas. the special deterrence force is an ultra-conservative group that acts as the capital's police force. it controls central and eastern tripoli and the airport. ♪ let's get to our guests. joining us are anas el gomati, who is the founder and the director of the sadeq institute, the first public policy think tank in libya. from toronto, we're joined by emadeddin badi, a non-resident senior fellow in the middle east programs at the atlantic council. and from san antonio, texas, we're joined by mansour el kikhia, who's a professor of politics at the university of texas san antonio and regularly visits libya for research work. gentlemen, welcome to you all. anas, let's start with you. what's the beef between the 444 brigade and the special deterrence forces? why would the latter have arrested a colonel from the former?

who is mahmoud hamza? >> well, the the beef as you put it is down to a number of different things, and the context is going to be critical here, but it's a mixture of militia rivalries and strategic battles over key territory in libya. and this backdrop, the political context in libya, where there have been murmurs now for several months of back channel talks between the government and tripoli, there are always going to be turf battles and rivalries in libya, and it was initially just dismissed as run-of-the-mill militia beef in tripoli. but the territory they were fighting over is in some of the most valuable real estate when it comes in terms of the strategic military and supply lines and logistical routes into tripoli, the gates of tripoli that in 2019 khalifa hafta launched his offensive from, it's also the the the supply routes that were used by the rival administration that was set up in 2022, the government of national stability, and today over the last few days it's been the scene of those of those rivalries.

and i think it's curious that the timing of this backdrop where there have been talks to forge a new interim government, that kind of political deal is just splitting up the cake. but which of the armed groups will remain in tripoli, who controls the valuable real estate possibly, that has been able to spiral this discussion, and the most valuable real estate is the old international airport that is looking to be launched or relaunched in the next several months which is in the south of tripoli and would move the center of gravity from matiga airport where the sdf, the first group that arrested mahmoud hamza in tripoli, it would move the center of gravity and influence in the capital towards the south and an area that the 444 traditionally call their stronghold. and it's an area that they have been trying to negotiate with the government of natural unity over their control for the future. so it's a mixture of all those different rivalries.

mahmoud hamza should be said is also an ardent anti you have to -- anti-hafta figure, he's been involved in some of these joint military talks that have been led by the un over the last year or two years and he has made his his opinions quite clear about his position, after when the fighting was getting very intense over the last few days we heard of rumors of different armed groups coming from masrata, coming from different pockets around the country. many of whom are also and they have their figures. and it started to spiral out from one of those tap battles into a battle that looked like it was going to be a repeat of of 2019. so i think it's curious timing. >> what what do you make of it, do you agree with anas? the same groups clashed in may this year. that time, there were injuries, but no deaths. this time last year, 32 people were killed in tripoli when groups allied to the two rival administrations fought. does this week's violence bear any similarity to that or is this just part of a a turf war?

it's complicated. >> i think, yeah, you cannot dissociate things from the uh political context and the overarching dynamics at a national level. however, in terms of these clashes in particular, i think there's no direct causal link between what is happening at a national level in terms of dialogues and positions on hafta -- with the government of national unity's prime minister abdul hamid and his relatives. i do think that there are much more local tripoli tripolitanian dynamics that play as in western libyan dynamics, that play in terms of the impetus for these clashes. in particular, the 444 brigade has had tensions with the sdf for quite a long time now. not just because of the airport or the tripoli international airport opening, etc., but also because the very fact that mahmoud hamsa was formerly a commander of the sdf and

defected from the sdf effectively after the tripoli war established quite successfully. some may argue his own brigade that now controls strategic territory has carved itself a role not just in terms of security enforcement, but political dialogues, etc. i wouldn't say that any of the players in western libya right now have a very clearly anti-hufftar stance. -- anti-hafta stance. i think a lot of them actually are pretty much looking at marginalizing opponents, vanquishing them, absorbing them in some case. and this is both, both the case for the sdf. the special transport and mahmoud hamza. what differentiates them is the fact that its footprint does indeed extend beyond tripoli. so as opposed to the modus operandi of most groups in western libya, it has several branches in quite strategic cities. he has even had its own patrol

set up. so you clearly see that it's encroaching on areas traditionally that aren't uh the purview of tripolitanian groups or western groups from western libya. so i think that has partly played into the tensions with the sdf. that's what partly led to the clashes. this isn't to discount the fact that these tensions in the now kind of clear-cut rivalry between these two groups will not be politically weaponized by other actors. they can leverage those tensions. but in terms of a causal link, there wasn't anything there yesterday that lends itself to the suggestion that this was a sort of conspiracy or orchestrated by anyone in the background. >> all right, so given what what he has just said, what does it say about the state of of the country, though, that here you have two armed factions vying for influence and control who have been largely at peace.

they've kept the peace for the last year, but yet they can fight each other with heavy weaponry in a densely populated area of the capital, the capital city? >> i'll now commend this gentleman, the second one who -- the second one for what he said. he hit the nail on the head. it is not really so much tied to politics as much as tied to individuality. you have a war between thugs and tripoli. this is not new. it's been going on for god knows how long. they hate each other. it is a turf area within the west that's causing much of this. it's a huge problem. it's not going to go away anytime soon. it's been going on for 600, 700 years.

with each side having their own militias. you have three militias. you have how many militias? here's a funny thing. you know that the prime minister cannot move in those areas, the question is why? security. because he has no control in those areas. this is a big problem. the fragmentation taking place. after qaddafi. it is hampering any type of unity in the country. it's not going to happen. libyans have come to the realization that perhaps they are not meant to be together. i'm sorry to say but this is the reality on the ground. >> do you think libya is perhaps destined to split? to be two separate countries? that there is no hope for a united libya? >> i'm sorry to say, but i think

this is where it's heading, it's been going on for years. the more it goes on, the more the concept is reinforced -- i know one thing for sure, there's a huge moment right now beginning to call for separation, go your own way, it's enough, we've had enough of this. this is what's happening. you have this turf war between thugs in the west. this is dominating the future of the country. it's not going to happen anymore but it's difficult. we have a dictator as well. hafta is certainly not a good guy anymore. there was at one time a hope for libya. i thought that going to tripoli

-- that he would in fact bring things together. but again this narcissism. it is unbelievable. 80-year-old man. what is it you want more in the future except bring the country together? but no, he wants absolute power. corrupt power absolutely. no doubt about that. >> the head of the african union voice, great concern over the fighting and said that there is no military solution to the libyan crisis in the country's unity peace stability at historic international status -- and historic international status can only be regained by peaceful means. he's right of course but how, can it ever happen? >> both of your guests have already pointed to the issue that these groups whether they rest in the east where they call themselves an army or pretend to be an army or whether they're in the west and they've called themselves revolutionaries but the revolution was a long time ago. there's criminal intent but there's certainly autonomy to do what they want to do when they want to do it and for whom they

want to do it for. i wouldn't whitewash all these pictures not all of the armed groups that are there not only the armed groups that have fought over the last 10 years have this criminal intent many are just fearful of going back to the years that were ruled under qaddafi. i'm certainly conscious of the fact that mahmoud hamza in his engagement with the five plus five only in the last several months has made those points i certainly don't think that he's the only one i think he's just a good example of someone that has made those points who's part of the infrastructure. but the reality being is that the current military status or the current militia breakup of state of play in libya is not compatible with a unified state and not compatible with a democratic state because they're not neutral subservient bodies that will serve an elected government. they're being calibrated to be controlled by either khalifa hafta in the east or abraham in the west or whichever political entrepreneur throws his hat into the cards. they need to start from the building block and the solution that you're asking for really is to destroy and disrupt or at the very least try to reform these

bodies. but the reality is is that you're not going to get anywhere unless you try to disrupt these bonds that have tied them together. city-state militias in the cities. the areas that hamad has been talking about. tripoli itself or the great tripolitania region is controlled by a little militia . that is not that is not consistent with with the kind of army and neutral services or security services that would be compatible with an elected government. and if we think of it that way they're only compatible with governments that are appointed by these political entrepreneurs. if you want to start from from a really an idealistic point is idealistic because the un isn't trying to work towards those ends of trying to you know scratch the surface clean and start with a fresh neutral military force and a neutral police service, it's working with what it's already got, it's working with groups that have certain sympathies certain allegiances and it's trying to calibrate them towards these leaderships and that's not going to work in the long run for libya. i think putting your finger on

the pulse, the responsibility now is on the u.n to build the architecture over there to not politicize its military tracks that are looking to unify two different groups that are not consistent with each other, the second is that you can't calibrate them around an appointed government that would be libya's seventh over the last decade. it doesn't need that, it needs an elected government two and a half billion libyans are waiting for that. in terms of of separation, i would cast that on that there are certainty groups there but whether they're minority groups and i certainly think they're minority groups that have done this i don't think it's linked to just the militia violence and tripoli -- we shouldn't remember we should we should forget that the parliament in the east was burnt down in summer protests and it's the parliament that decides when or when we don't have elections. they set the election law. they set the constitutional basis, the two milestones that we can have elections. everyone else is just a benefactor but these are these are the main structural causes that are impeding this progress forward and it's the irony today that if we think that we're going to get as libyans in a

personal capacity here if you think that we're going to get statehood for eastern libya or western libya get in line at the u.n. security council, you have many groups before you mainly even the angelicians and the best separatists might be ahead of the libyans who don't have a national cause. when it comes down to what they ask for, the groups that are screaming the loudest ask for oil, strategic autonomy. >> is all of this an indication that the international community has utterly failed as far as libya is concerned? isn't the outside world interested enough in libya? what more should it be doing? >> one of the serial failures of the international community and the u.n., it's been a

downward's spiraling trend into violence. i would single out the special represented of to the secretary-general as being what i would call diplomatically very complacent in terms of how his mediation has gone, if any, over the political process. the political process now is in shambles. there is absolutely no direction to it. the u.n.'s main talking point is this rhetorical support of elections with little to no actual -- >> i just want to point out that he's not here to defend himself. i want to make that point clear. but carry on. >> absolutely. i do think he's been in listening mode far too long. so you clearly see him doing field visits and actually doing some of the work that would pave the way for something but every time you wait on actually something to be formalized and a dialogue to be institutionalized there hasn't been much there so -- and that leaves the the

country to be preyed upon by the for the very forces that we are talking about here. the military actors, the political entrepreneurs that don't have the country's best interests at heart. so it's no surprise that none of them are really supportive of actual elections. enter actual suffrage. for the past 10 to 12 years, they've dominated the the scene and they know that people are fed up with them in most cases at least with the parliament and the high state council and some of the controversial figures and that they would never be voted in. so it's honestly very frustrating -- a frustrating cycle for a lot of people. now the bar is so low, that they are very happy with small, very basic things. very basic stability and very artificial stability that the current government is providing for the government of national unity.

however stability has pointed out can sometimes be an illusion. what this government is doing is it's essentially attempting to re-create gaddafi's system, revenue distribution, a lot of handouts. a lot of social safety nets. a lot of patronage structures a lot of corruption, but it's trying to recreate that with a very different security system with no monopoly on violence. so you have these tensions that will ultimately erupt between the groups particularly in western libya. but this is as valid for western libya as it is for eastern idea because i do think that in eastern libya, tensions between tribes and social structures in the east are very much there with the governing structures from a security standpoint. hafta and his sons. this illusion of stability has to at some point unravel and the unraveling will unfortunately be violent, if there is no

meaningful political direction or an outlet for people to actually discuss, cast their vote ideally and elect who they want. and this isn't to say that elections will be a panacea either. they need to be properly regulated, there needs to be an accompanying particularly security plan in order for them not to be rigged. we don't also want to end up in a lebanon like scenario where we have armed group leaders and the relatives of our group selected -- armed group elected. >> i want to turn the question i put to him on its head. are there actually too many people meddling in libyan affairs at the moment? we mentioned friends, the uae -- france, the uae, russia, turkey, there's just too many people messing in libyan affairs. >> yes, it reminds me of lebanon. paul lebanon.

arabs had their battles in lebanon. the egyptians against the syrians. it is unbelievable. the same thing in libya. what do you have to do there? you asked a really profound question. has the u.n. been a bad player in this? yes. it's been an awful player. ,, the united nations and the international committee as a whole really acts like -- i call them -- my term for them is, if you marry my mother, i call you dad, in this case, as long as i have a government that i can talk with, it doesn't matter what kind of government it is. it can be the worst government in the world because i can talk to it. this is an awful way of looking at things. i was just in a conference sometime time ago and stephanie williams -- i had a high admiration for her -- she was

saying we have to have elections. elections for what? we've been having elections and we have been having thugs come in power. he was in america for 23 years and he can't even speak english for goodness sake. you have individuals who are there because there is a beauty. no more no less. there's no sense that this belongs to me. this is libya. i care about it. if libyans don't care about it, why should the international community do that either? simple as that. >> as the u.n. had hoped, that much delayed elections could have been held this year due to the relative stability of the country, is there any chance of that happening anytime soon, do you think? >> the rules of the game are rigged in this election because the system itself has been rigged to allow for these rival parliaments that continue to claim that their arrivals that have conspired despite conflict

and despite competition and despite what many of libya's conflicts have looked like, all of these different enemies then come together when they're enemies are benefits they're not just friends with benefits they're enemies or they purported to be enemies of benefits and they share the spoils and they continue to allow libya to roll around this merry-go-round with the illusion that because they can't agree to elections that they can't happen, but they always agree to have a unity government. it's quite curious that they can unify their interests when it comes to sharing the spoils of war when they can't unify their interest when they have to let go of power. that is the that is the the irony of the case. when it comes to who libyans may elect, it's quite interesting there was a poll done by duane research at the end of 2021 towards the towards the deadline for the 24th of december elections, and it's so interesting, the i don't know vote got 14 it got more than most of the candidates that had stood there again the head of the parliament got one and a half percent or less than one percent rather the strong man of the west got one and a half percent, khalifa hafta despite controlling eastern libya and

ramming it down everyone's throats got 7%. it's the irony that all of these individuals know that if even if they were to stand for elections with enough time, they wouldn't get past those votes. i think libyans are desperate for a choice to move forward but the system is rigged against them and the u.n continues to allow that system to be rigged against them. it's a shame. >> very quick and serve -- quick answer from you, no elections anytime soon? >> i agree essentially. there wouldn't be any elections anytime soon. part of that is because of what dennis mentioned in terms of the system being rigged. what is worrying however is the increase in i would say the bubble that both the armed groups and the politicians now live in. a lot of the links that existed between the armed groups -- the armed groups were at some point closer to the civilians today with these types of clashes that you see with the use of heavy weaponry, etc., you clearly see that that those links are have been separate even in the areas where there that were

revolutionary strongholds. >> final question to you, do libyans have any cause for hope right now that things will get better? >> hope is always there. there continues to be hope. nothing else. given the situation on the ground, i don't see much future anymore in libya as it is. i'm sorry to say this. but this is the reality. it's a hope -- i hope not. i hope i'm wrong. nothing will please me more than to see the country come together. but now what the countries paying for is for the 40 years that the previous dictator i've already spent. and now we are paying this do. -- this due. this is what we have. >> gentlemen, there we must end it. many thanks indeed to you all. you can see the program again at any time by going to the website at aljazeera.com. for further discussion, join us on our facebook page at

facebook.com/ajinsidestory. and of course you can join the conversation on x, formerly known as twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, adrian finnegan, and the team here in doha, thanks for watching. we'll see you again. ♪

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