cyril: a plane crashes in russia. the passenger list including the leader of the wagner mercenaries. yevgeny prigozhin led a brief revolt in june, described as treason by president vladimir putin, before apparently being forgiven. what facts can be drawn from what happened? this is "inside story." ♪ cyril: hello, and welcome to the program. i am cyril vanier. was it an accident or payback by the kremlin?

speculation is right after the -- speculation is rife after the jet crash in russia on wednesday. about the only thing beyond doubt as to what happened is the plane wreckage scattered far and wide. russia's aviation agency says that there were no survivors. the passenger list included three crew and seven members of the wagner mercenary group, including its leader, yevgeny prigozhin. we will be looking with our guests at what may have happened, and the political background and implications. first, though, let's hear what some russians have been saying in moscow. >> the first thing i believe is that this man committed the most serious crimes possible for a military man to commit. as a citizen, too. i think his safety was only guaranteed in exchange for him stopping what he started, but he didn't stop. i believe it is a matter of honor to kill him off. >> i feel sorry for him. i think a hero died. that's all. what can i say? i don't know. it's a shame. my condolences, of course, to his family, his friends, everyone.

the country lost a hero. >> this man was in fact a master of illusions. maybe he didn't die. no one knows yet. maybe they won't even show the funeral or the body. cyril: we can speak now to daniel hawkins. daniel, you heard it. "a matter of honor to kill him." "i feel sorry for him." "he's a master of illusion." a range of views, as we said. what are the feelings right now in russia that you are privy to? daniel: people have been coming to the wagner office in st. petersburg, laying flowers, wreaths, candles, or portraits of prigozhin. that is not to say at all that prigozhin was universally liked. quite the contrary. he was a highly controversial, divisive figure, and many things to many people, with some viewing him as a hero who founded russia's most effective fighting force in ukraine, taking the city of bakhmut. others viewing him as a traitor, as a dangerous man, who brought russia to the brink of its most serious political crisis in 30 years. but to many, ultimately, he was

a man who spoke truth to power, who said things that needed to be said, and which were lacking in mainstream political discourse, and really became russia's favorite rabble-rouser over his many months in the public limelight. cyril: what is the reaction? are you able to assess that? the reaction within the ranks of wagner? daniel: the wagner group has earned themselves a reputation as a very disciplined force. they've got a very rigid vertical hierarchy structure, which has a clear plan of action if something should happen to the higher echelons of command. and we understand from some media reports that plan of action has already gone into motion. there is no doubt that prigozhin was an extremely popular figure among his fighters. there was a lot of respect and affection for him. we have seen some of that emotion on footage captured outside the wagner offices. one fighter collapsing to his knees in tears, breaking down following the death of prigozhin in this plane crash.

but also, the wagner channels on telegram, it has to be said, have also responded with discipline. they have urged people not to post unverified information, to wait for information to come out of their commanders' meeting a little later on. and there's been no calls for revenge or mutiny. i think many wagner fighters will be very aware, very keenly aware, the security forces will all be watching closely, especially following the events of two months ago, when wagner led -- when prigozhin led the wagner fighters on his so-called march of justice to moscow. cyril: absolutely. what is wagner without prigozhin? we will be asking that question. daniel hawkins in moscow, thank you very much. we will talk to our guests in just a moment. first, though, i want to take a look at the background of yevgeny prigozhin. he came from humble beginnings in st. petersburg, which is also the home city of the russian president. prigozhin served nine years in jail for robbery, fraud, and attacking a woman. when sentenced in the former

soviet union, he was only 20 years old. after his time in prison, he began selling hotdogs. he made so much money that he opened some high-class restaurants. one of his customers was vladimir putin. he became his personal chef, catering for his birthday parties and dinners with visiting leaders. that includes u.s. president george bush. huge lucrative state catering contracts followed. supplying food for schools and russia's armed forces turned him into a billionaire. and he moved from kitchens to battlefields when russian-backed separatists began fighting ukrainian forces in the eastern donbas region in 2014. that is when he founded the wagner mercenary group. he denied his connections with this private army for many years, even suing journalists who linked him to the organization. but he became the face of wagner after russia's invasion of ukraine, recruiting prisoners for its ranks and personally involved in some of the most brutal combat. wagner sources are accused of

widespread abuses and a link to war crimes in ukraine and africa. relations with the kremlin soured because of the war in ukraine. a power struggle with the russian defense minister and battlefield commanders began. he accused them of incompetence and failing to surprise wagner --to supply wagner with ammunition. in may, he pulled his mercenaries out of ukraine, and a month later, he led a mutiny, which russian leader vladimir putin called treason. he ended the insurrection on the road to moscow, and he appeared to have struck a deal with putin to continue operating. our guests today to talk about all this. in moscow, pavel felgenhauer, defense and military analyst. in brussels, donnacha ó beacháin, professor of post-soviet politics, author of "the color revolutions in the former soviet republics: successes and failures." and in rome, owen matthews, the author of "overreach: the inside story of putin's war on ukraine."

a warm welcome to all of you gentlemen. i want to first ask all of you. we have to get this out of the way. do any of you believe that this plane crash was an accident? pavel? pavel: of course it is not an accident. planes don't fall out of the sky by accident. this was some kind of explosion on board. some say it was a bomb on board, or maybe it was shot down by antiaircraft missile, most likely a bomb. but it is not an accident. a bomb on board is not an accident. cyril: donnacha, your take. donnacha: i agree with pavel. it is extremely unlikely it is an accident. there are many theories circulating it was taken down by air defenses. it is highly unlikely they would make an error that there was a bomb on a plane.

very few will lend much credence to the results of such an investigation. i think this is seen as payback for the rebellion two months ago. and i think for many people, the supply lasted for so long, to full months. cyril: no surprise, the dominant their here is this was indeed payback by the kremlin, and the kremlin is in one way or another behind the downing of this plane. as far as you are concerned, are there any credible alternative theories? owen: if this was an accident, an awful lot of people who happen to be enemies of putin are having bad accidents. they are falling out of windows, dying in mysterious murder-suicides. at least 22, depending on how

you count it, al oligarchs, prigozhin himself, the commander who died with him. this is clearly not an accident. this is a pattern going back many years. but it seems to have actually kicked up into a new gear. the bloody retribution that the kremlin has brought against its enemies has just gone to a new level since the beginning of the war. cyril: pavel, all of you are analysts of what goes on in russia and russian affairs and criminology to some degree. what did you first think when you first heard the news that this plane had gone down and prigozhin was aboard? pavel: that this was the end of the wagner group as we knew it before. maybe they will survive in some kind of other form.

but the way that we knew them, they will not. the predominance of them, and especially the use of wagner group by prigozhin for personal political ambitions, also will not be present. the fighters are there, they will maybe continue in different places of the world, maybe under different banners. they won't disappear. but the phenomenon of wagner is over. the organization is fully decapitated. it is not only prigozhin who was the political figurehead and the finance behind it, but also dmitry utkin, who was the founder. he was the founder, not prigozhin, of the wagner group, and he was there military commander. and he had even more respect

with the actual command structure than prigozhin himself. they are both out of the game, and that is a game changer. cyril: donnacha, do you agree with wagner totally decapitated? i would put this in perspective with what daniel hawkins told us. that wagner had a plan. if they found themselves leaderless at any point, there was a plan b. he did say there was discipline among the ranks, that there is a hierarchy, and apparently a plan b. this idea of wagner being fully decapitated, what do you think? donnacha: it is difficult to imagine a wagner without yevgeny prigozhin or dmitry utkin. we have to look at it in terms of the arenas where wagner has been influential. in ukraine, it already before the death of prigozhin, their star had waned in terms of the military front in ukraine. they had been removed from the

battlefield, so to speak. in africa, there was a perception that their operations would continue. that does not have to have prigozhin at the helm. the local authorities in africa don't care who is at the head of the russian mercenary group they deal with. wagner or a variation of wagner could continue in africa. the most important impact is within russian politics itself. cyril:: owen, the messaging from russian authorities, what do you make of the messaging? owen: the method of prigozhin's murder was theatrical. he didn't die of poisoning. he wasn't knocked down by a car. it was clearly something that was meant to be spectacularly violent, and sending a clear message. the main thing that it tells us about russia is that putin's russia is a failed state in anymore normal country, a rebel

and mutineer would be disarmed, arrested, tried, imprisoned. in putin's russia, there is no due process. even though the killing of prigozhin is a reassertion of putin's power, because prigozhin was a walking, talking proof of putin's weakness, it does show that the normal mechanisms of any kind of state, form of state sanctioned justice, just don't apply in what is essentially a mafia hit on a man who trusted putin's word. the only reason he was in russia was because putin gave him his word and putin broke his word and murdered him. cyril: pavel, both donnacha and owen commented on the manner of prigozhin's disappearance. a plane crash as opposed to

other ways in which it could have been done. and this prevailing theory that the kremlin is behind this. what do you make of this? a plane crash versus any other way it could have been done. in terms of the messaging, i mean. donnacha: first of all, russia does have due process. what happened to prigozhin his russian style due process. simply, our due process is different than your due process. also, i would say -- cyril: i sense some sarcasm there. pavel: that is a fact. donnacha: a plane taking out at the same time prigozhin and utkin and some other chiefs of the wagner group, important people there, that is more effective than just taking out one. actually, utkin was more a bit radical. he was leading the troops on moscow, and then he was stopped

by prigozhin in his tracks when he was maybe going into moscow, trying to do so. taking out prigozhin and leaving utkin would be a bad idea, so now you kill two birds with one stone. that is effective. cyril: owen, i know you want to sink your teeth into this question. does this make vladimir putin stronger or weaker? owen: in the short-term, stronger. in the long term, clearly not only does it show that russia is a failed state, it is clearly significant that the only successful decapitation strikes of the russian military is against its own side. clearly, this is a sign that it is not going very well in putin's policy. in the short term, i think he has reinforced his position.

but in the long term, i think he showed dragon's teeth for two reasons. one, if we say that putin is a mafia boss, you make a promise to one of your rebellious capos, then you murder him, that seriously undermines your authority to make promises to anyone in the future. i think for many wagner fighters, and in fact it has been said on wagner affiliated telegram channels, the lesson of this murder is that if you do a mutiny, you have to take it to the end. in fact, actually -- yes. cyril: i just have to say at this stage, and we understand your analysis, obviously you are responsible for those words and we bring in all the different voices of the story on this program. but your point is well taken. donnacha, this question of whether it makes vladimir putin

weaker or stronger? your thoughts? donnacha: this is a very old question for any autocratic leader. you can look to machiavelli's "the prince," where he pulls the question, is it better for an autocratic leader to be loved or feared? he came down on the side of being feared. breaking your word, that is not a great precedent, if you are a mafia don, for example. but more important is being feared. if some of the crosses you, if somebody undermines your authority, if somebody betrays you -- you after member vladimir putin's speech back in june when he said this is the greatest threat to russian sovereignty sends 1917, the baltic revolution in 1917, the people behind these were traders. for him to have allowed that to be forgiven and forgotten, to be swept aside as some misunderstanding, even though lives were lost, i think it would have from his perspective undermines his authority fundamentally. i think for many, prigozhin was a dead man walking.

once he didn't take out the don, once those are rowe's remaining next once the czar was remaining, his days were numbered. cyril: does this go forward to the war being prosecuted in ukraine? pavel: directly not because love wagners were removed from the warzone. they have of course for a long time, even beginning with syria, problems with the defense ministry and its hierarchy. actually, those who formed wagner led by utkin, they left the russian military. they were all military people. because they very much despised how the russian military hierarchy is running things. and they had problems with them. in syria, they had problems. in africa, with supplies and actually other things. so directly, they were not

involved in any fighting in ukraine. though there could be problems if something really goes wrong and the wagner group could have been mobilized to be thrown into battle. and now it would be harder to do, and most likely they will not very much want to do that and will not be as coherent as they could have been. basically, the bottom line is, no, this will not right now directly influence the battlefield situation in ukraine. cyril: no immediate impact on the war of ukraine. what becomes of the wagner fighters? i know you said decapitated without their leadership, but we still have thousands of experienced, trained, disciplined fighters who are out there. what happens to them? pavel: the wagner group was kind of flexible. that was their big advantage. they had a large list of people

who served with them in different places, specialists, people who knew how to use weapons, and they knew these people, so they could easily expand their structure. then contract, so easily mobilize, easily demobilize, and they had a skeleton structure of command and control that could be expanded. yes, they were very effective at that. these people will not disappear, these fighters, not at all. but decapitation of them as an organization means a grand wagner group as we saw this year, there much successful unrest and taking of a city of a million people, and the march on moscow, that is most likely right now not happening again. they will have problems with financing, with organization,

with working with the defense minister because they need ordinance and equipments in africa. there's going to be lots of problems. but they won't disappear. these people won't disappear. and they may reappear in other forms. organizational forms. cyril: where does this leave --donnacha, let me address this question to you. where does this leave the approval rating, if you will, for vladimir putin in russia? i take your earlier points about strategic issues for him and keeping himself in power and all of that, but the recent polling tells us he is widely popular in russia, to the tune of 80%. what does this do to that? donnacha: it is very difficult to gauge exactly how popular vladimir putin is, especially at

a time of war, especially in a dictatorship. people were called out by random polling agencies in respect about their independence or otherwise. they are going to find people on the other end of the line who are very wary of giving their real opinion of vladimir putin or the work, especially when they see events of the last 24 hours by those who seem to defy him in any way. naturally of course course, russia is a state of war and there will always be a contingency that will say when my country is at work, i want my country to win. what was revealed during the rebellion back in june, and this is why it gave vladimir putin cause for concern, was the lack of popular support for vladimir putin during that memorable summer day. there was no mass swelling of opinion, no protests on the street saying, we support putin. four down with prigozhin. quite the opposite. there was evidence of support for prigozhin. i would question this notion that putin is a popular leader. he rules by fear and by passivity.

russia as a country has a long history of autocratic rule punctured by very brief moments of transition between one form of autocratic alert and another -- autocratic ruler and another. it tends not to be bottom-up, it tends to be an intra-elite struggle, which is what the prigozhin-putin struggle was all about. cyril: you used the word dictatorship a moment ago. again, i understand the different points of view here. but russia is still a country that has elections, a parliament, that has some sort of political process. i know what you are going to answer is pretty much what you told us a moment ago, and we welcome all these views. owen, your thoughts on where it leaves led mere putin, the public perception of vladimir putin in russia? owen: given that russia is a dictatorship, and in a way a democracy, although it retains some of the phantom structures of democracy, it is rather hard to tell, as my fellow panelists

have said. there is a fundamental problem with polling in a totalitarian system. we don't really know the exact extent of that public support. what we do know is three rather important things. hitherto in the major moments of revolution in russia when we have seen state collapse, three things are the case. one, there is a profound economic crisis. two, the regime has discredited itself and shown itself to be weak. and three, there is an alternative leader waiting in the wings. none of those things pertain in today's russia. there is no alternative. the state, despite battlefield setbacks, has actually done a remarkably good job of fighting off the effects of sanctions, cushioning its population from

any kind of economic crisis, or making the crisis comparable to 1917 or 1981. there is no real sign that putin is actually fatally losing his authority. that is really what we are talking about today, is about putin sort of closing that last open wound that was made in his regime by prigozhin. the rebellion was crushed despite the fact that it did show some worrying cracks in russia's society. those cracks are as yet nothing near to being an existential threat to the putin regime, however much the ukrainians might wish otherwise. cyril: pavel, looking forward five years from now, how will we look back on this episode? will be say this was a fork in the road moment where things changed, and it sewed the seeds

for future events? or will be say, this was just a blip on the radar and this was handled by the kremlin in much the same way that many other things have been handled by the kremlin? pavel: for that, we will have to actually with these f five years. some of the supporters of the czarist regime murdered russ rasputin, then it was a big story, but then it turned out it was a story for comic books more than the real history of russia. it was a blip. so, i don't know for sure. we believe that utkin and prigozhin have perished in this crash. there will be evidence.

but both had doubles. maybe there will be sightings of prigozhin here, there, in africa somewhere, like elvis presley, in the coming years. this could be a pop story, actually, in the future. cyril: [laughter] i did not expect we would be ending this show on elvis presley, but your point is well taken. i would like to thank all of our guests today. pavel felgenhauer, and owen mat. thank you for watching. you can see the program any time by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that is facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on x, previously known as twitter. our handle is @ajinsidestory. from me, cyril vanier, and the whole team here, bye for now.

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