mohammed: will ethiopia compromise on its grand renaissance stand? yet another meeting is held with egypt and sudan. addis ababa insists the dam won't harm its neighbors, but will it accept a binding agreement, and what will the long-term consequences of this dam be? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, and welcome to the program. i'm mohammed jamjoom. egypt, ethiopia, and sudan are back at the negotiating table.

they're hoping to resolve a years-long dispute over ethiopia's multi-billion dollar hydroelectric dam on the blue nile. sudan and egypt are worried the dam will limit their own water supply and pose an existential threat for generations to come. all three countries are heavily invested in this issue, and here's why. the blue nile in ethiopia flows north and meets the white nile in sudan's capital, khartoum. the waters then merge into the river nile and flow further north into egypt, providing most of the country's water. egypt is pushing for illegally -- for a legally binding agreement, but for years, ethiopia has remained defiant. so, what can egypt do if these negotiations fail, and how is extreme weather affecting all this? we'll explore these issues with our guests in a moment, but first, this report by katya lopez. reporter: this $4.6 billion dam is a source of pride for ethiopia and a source of worry for sudan and egypt. their main concern is how it will affect their water supply.

after a two-year standstill, negotiations among the three nations have resumed in cairo. they include talks on how the grand ethiopian renaissance dam on the blue nile is filled and operated. meetings like this one between egypt's president and ethiopia's prime minister last month appeared to have eased tensions, but not all. both are hoping to reach a deal before the year ends. although ethiopia's dam affects both sudan and egypt, cairo has been the most outspoken. it says its livelihood and economic existence is at stake. >> ultimately, i'm warning our brothers in ethiopia to not touch a drop of egypt's water, because all options are open. reporter: the nile originates in ethiopia, and about 90% of

egypt's water comes from the river. it's crucial for its population of more than 100 million people and its agriculture. now, extreme weather conditions and droughts are fueling concerns. >> private and public debt. reporter: over the years, ethiopia has insisted the dam, the electricity it produces, and the jobs they will generate will benefit the entire region. but tensions increased when ethiopia's government began filling the dam's reservoir before reaching an agreement with its neighbors. a deal was signed in 2015 to share the waters of the nile. but eight years on, all three countries have new concerns, including how to safeguard their rights to those waters and their supplies. katya lopez, for "inside story. -- for "inside story." mohammed: all right, for more on

all this, i'm joined by our guests. in addis ababa is yilma seleshi, professor of water resources and engineering at addis ababa university. he's also an advisor to the ethiopian negotiating team. in cairo is sara kira, founder and director of the european north african senator for research. and in london is allam ahmed, president of the world association for sustainable development and director of the middle eastern knowledge economy institute. a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on "inside story." let me start with you today. before this latest round of talks, egypt and ethiopia had said that they want to finalize a deal within four months. so, what is different this time, and is there actual political willpower that would enable a deal to actually be reached? >> thank you very much for inviting me for this show. you know, the three countries are very brotherly and they are

tied up with the nile river. every leader wants the issue to be solved in the shortest time as possible. so this is political will. but the reality is what we, the technical in the legal team are doing, on the ground. mohammed: so let me ask you your take on all this from your vantage point. obviously this has been a years-long dispute when it comes to the grand renaissance dam. the parties right now are expressing optimism. they are expressing commitment to hopefully the success of the negotiating process. but what exactly has changed here this time, i mean, is there really a reason to be expressing this kind of optimism at this moment? >> well, speaking of optimism and a decade long or more for negotiations between the ethiopian part and the egyptian part in regards to the nile

river. well, as you mentioned in the report, it's been mentioned that we are pressuring -- egypt is pressuring for a binding agreement from the ethiopian port, but unfortunately, the intake about yesterday's negotiations, that has been very hard negotiations, and i don't think there is a lot of political power from the ethiopian part to reach a binding agreement, or at least that's the impression egypt is getting as well as egyptians not egypt only as a state, egyptians as well, we are seeking peaceful cooperation and a binding agreement to make sure that this file of national security of egypt is really secured. the optimism comes from the series of negotiations, of course. we come to the table, and that's

optimistic enough. we come to the table and we negotiate. we have treaties, binding treaties. the fact that international law is built on treaties, and if we tend to change any historic treaties, i think the whole map of africa will change. so today's optimism comes from the new membership of egypt and ethiopia to the brics. that's one thing. maybe there will be cooperative methods and mechanisms to deal with that, and we are not the only two members in the brics that might have a little bit of conflicts. but the optimism comes from the fact that this path could lead to cooperative efforts and mechanisms, more than just a crisis, or that we might resort to any other political conflicts. so there is optimism. i agree with that totally. mohammed: let me ask you, are

the parties involved in this round of talks actually thinking that it would be possible to affect a legally binding agreement in the long term? i mean, is that something that is being considered an actual reality at this point? >> thank you very much for inviting me, and thank you to meet your guests. no, i don't at all see any of this because number one, one of these three countries, as you're well aware, jazeera is covering this on a daily basis, sudan is a country in war now. talking we are talking about a country in war. so it's completely out of any thinking the all their mind now is to save their people in their houses, protecting women from rape, and so on. secondly, we were never going to reach a legal agreement on this ongoing dispute for nearly 10 years now with the serbia -- with egypt and sudan unless we resolve the technical files. i have called for this for many years. many of my colleagues, everyone

called about this. unless we know and we have full investigation, evaluation and inspection of the technical files, which means the operation manuals, how this dam is being constructed, we will never reach a legal agreement. because in order to reach a legal agreement, and we then discuss lawyers come to discuss the terms and reference of the legal agreement, we need to have two good answers. the first answer for the sudanese people if this dam is safe, it's not going to end up killing the sudanese people by flooding. they have never provided a technical, independent verified answer. the second technical answer the egyptians need, which i totally agree with them, they need to see these technical files to be assured the water is not going to be siphoned from their land, because it depends on this for almost 80%. we buy fruits and vegetables coming all the way to london from egypt. egypt is clearly saying this is going to finish their farming,

it's going to kill their people, so unless the technical independent, independent, independent, i'm repeating it three times because in the same chair, i have said this for many years, unless they allow that, it will never reach the stage of illegal, we cannot discuss legal without discussing the technical. and finally ethiopia, and i know, i've been a many times, is seen as anti-progress -- no, i'm someone who want africa to be prosperous. this is one of my global missions in this organization. i have always argued one of the fundamentals for sustainable development in the entire african country is electrification. so i am actually supporting any dam in africa which will bring electricity to the people, because that's the major fundamental obstacle for sustainable living africa. but, at the same time, ethiopia has shown that with evidence, this is not the first or the second -- every time sudan is in

crisis, ethiopian trying to fill the dam are trying to break the international law. sudan if the country now needs help. ethiopia should have followed and done exactly what egypt has done, opening their folders, accommodating the sudanese, who are fleeing persecution, fleeing rape, rather than doing the things which they have been doing over the last one or two months. i don't want to go further on. mohammed: i don't mean to interrupt you, but you have you have put a challenge to our guest in addis ababa and actually also sarah as well, so i want to give the floor right now to yilma to answer two of the things that have been said. first i want to ask you about your response, because i saw you reacting, your response when he was questioning the safety of the structure itself. what is your position on that? >> i will answer that one, but it's very important to know what makes you know -- the crucial difference in the negotiation

. if drought year comes, ethiopia will not fill the dam this has been reached in consensus. the second, they want to know about operation. so they want to to know the future release from god. this means water allocation. the second direction is from now

on. if any irrigation or water supply or hydropower down ethiopia. we need to consult with egypt and sudan. it means you ask permission from the sudanian region. mohammed: let me also ask you this, because sarah had said that essentially she doesn't believe that there is political willpower in ethiopia to try and resolve this dispute. so i want to get your response to that. but i also want to ask you, one of the big questions here is would ethiopia actually accept a legally binding agreement when it comes to the framework for negotiations? what is your response to that as well? >> yes, you are right. what we propose to them is, if you want to see our future dams for irrigation, for water supply and hydropower, first we need to have a water sharing agreement, because that is a system where you ask one country you are

overdoing it, more than your share of water. without that, you cannot commit to a precondition for future development in ethiopia. this is a crucial matter. from the ethiopian side, we will negotiate the water sharing agreement so that this solves a problem. not including other upstream countries including ethiopia. that is a very positive sign for [indiscernible] in fact, upstream countries for example, if you take turkiye -- they have not negotiated water sharing agreement with downstream countries. it's not to our interests to limit our future development. with our allocation system. this is a very positive step from the ethiopian side.

but in downstream countries, they are really insisting ethiopia only generated aerial power from guard and in the future you may have hydropower dam, okay, but no irrigation, no water supply for drinking purposes. this is not acceptable. for any southern country. this is a crucial matter. on your question about the safety, that is already settled by international experts. that is concluded. mohammed: sorry, i need to get a question to sarah now as well. sara, since the gerd is nearly completed now, i want to ask you how much egypt's position may have shifted? is egypt now essentially trying to secure a political agreement over the timetable for filling the dam's reservoir and how the dam would be managed going forward? are those essentially the priorities for egypt now?

>> we need a guarantee that ethiopia will not hurt one centimeter of our water and we need a binding agreement and we need a guarantee that ethiopia will not break international law treaties. and we respect the neighborhood and will respect our national security and our dependence on the nile river for 97% or more of our water needs, because that's our only water supply. if we are talking development, we have our arms open for cooperation and development. and as our colleague in london mentioned, that it is the goal of all africans in general, the development of africa. so egypt will never be a restraining, a block in the way or in the path of development

for ethiopia or any other african nation. but what we need is a guarantee that ethiopia will respect a binding agreement or at least would have the power or the willpower to reach a binding agreement with us to secure our own and only water resource. that's all that egypt needs, a guarantee, a cooperative mechanism to make sure there's no hurt for ethiopia or for egypt or for sudan of course. and that's what international law says. but i cannot trust a party that does not respect international law. i'm sorry. if we go canceling treaties that bind all of africa together since colonism, my dear, the whole africa map will change. mohammed: in the past couple of days, sudan's military leader had traveled to egypt to meet with egyptian president. -- with the egyptian president.

i want to ask you, from your perspective, does that meeting have anything to do with the gerd and perhaps aligning positions before these negotiations or is it only concerning the conflict in sudan? >> i am answering you based on my analysis and reading of what is going on in the social media or the news, but not from a specific source. i have no doubt about al-bruhan will have never mentioned or discussed anything with the president about the dam, because they saw many, many important and vital, critical, crucial issues in the al-braham mind and now about the war in sudan, the women in sudan who are raped every day, the children who are being killed, the the suffering of the sudanese people, this is one of the ugliest wars i think in africa or across the whole world. you have never heard of such a disaster. so i can't think of any chance the president or the general

will have discussed anything to do with very noises down. and secondly, i think i might say my only analysis would likely to be that the president will be discussing with the general how it can help more. how it can get more involved in resolving this issue in sudan. because egypt has proven over the last five months is they are critical, they are the real good friends and neighbors to sudan. completely the opposite of ethiopia doing all these wrong things starting from the prime minister. so i think i don't think at all any issues to do with the dam has been discussed or will be discussed between the two presidents. it is really critical for saving. mohammed: let me also ask you, getting back to the issue of the dam, can this dispute actually be solved among the three countries or ultimately will a mediator be needed to be involved, and who would best fill that role if there is a mediator going forward? >> very good question.

and this is a question really i think we should focus on. number one, yes, i still believe the three countries can sit down together. but ethiopia, as my colleague said, and i think i support and i agree with what she said. ethiopia needs to show to sudan and egypt they are a trusted country politically to work with them. just look at what ethiopia has done over the last couple of years, three times at least, documented even by the american government. they start filling the dam without even consulting egyptus -- consulting egypt or sudan. the ethiopian government have a clear trend over the last three or four years of not applying or following or guiding or being obliged by any international law. they need to come clean. they need to show that we are people who respect the international law and also they need to show to the sudanese in particular they are a country they can trust them with their

future as a neighbor. egypt has no need to prove anything to the sudanese. they are hosting millions of sudanese in their homes. they open their arms. ethiopia, on the other hand, just look at the last two months. the ethiopian prime minister in the igad meeting question the legality and the control of the sudanese government. can you believe that? this is a clear violation of international relations. you cannot accuse a government still standing in sudan that they have no control over their government. it was bizarre. everyone criticized it. the last two weeks or something, the ethiopian something, hosting a militia that is killing and raping people. accused by even the united nations. the united nations accused the militia of killing and raping people. your hosting them in your country with the opposition -- you're hosting them in your

country with the opposition party. you can't have deal with people like this. so i think i believe these are very good neighbors they have to sit down. mohammed: yilma, i see you reacting. i know you want to jump in, so i'm going to go ahead and let you. >> yeah, i mean, we better focus on guard, because itself is a big issue. because other accusations without fact is not really acceptable. my sister and brother are telling us that ethiopia has no water. no drop of water to fill that dam. this is really very unfortunate. ethiopia has a share of water. we filled our dam from our share. we don't need permission. we make sure that it is equitable and regional. this is not acceptable.

this attitude is the one which brings the negotiation for long and long periods. we have a share. how much? let's discuss together. mohammed: i'm sorry to interrupt. you mentioned water sharing a couple of times. i want to ask you this because you're an advisor to the ethiopian negotiating team when it comes to all this. one of the key questions that keeps coming up in all this is if ethiopia would be willing to release enough water from the reservoir to help mitigate a drought downstream, so is ethiopia willing to make a commitment about how much water they would release if that scenario came to pass? >> yeah, you, anyone can go into the u.n. website where the three countries submitted their proposal. we did that. from our resource. we constructed during drought. we committed to make additional release downstream to the brothers, sudan and egypt.

we committed to that. more than the natural release -- what we get during growth period. we had that commitment. the struggle is only lies. ethiopia does not need river water for water supply for irrigation, but we need them -- ethiopians is affected by droughts many, many times and everybody knows this. we depend on irrigation. our industry and our urban people, they need water to drink. we don't need to gain permission to do that from egypt and sudan. this is very normal. so what we're saying is let's discuss about the share of water because the nile river is very scarce. it is not abundant like the amazon or congo. without water sharing, you cannot solve it. then we go for water management.

mohammed: sarah, what can egypt do if negotiations ultimately fail, and what would egypt do if you cannot reach illegally binding agreement going forward? >> actually, i'm impressed by the contest. mr. advisor, you say we generate water and we have no problem with water sharing, but we need no permission. no permission and water sharing does not go along together. because we share water resources, you don't need water, we know that. you need development and you don't need water for irrigation, but we need it because our people will die if we don't have it. our farming will go dry and everything will just go and we already are in water poverty. so how would i trust ethiopia

giving out water according to the treaty of 1999 -- i'm not mentioning 1959 and 1929 now. according to the 1999 agreement, how would i guarantee that ethiopia would give me as an egyptian citizen -- that ethiopia would give me water if there is no binding agreement? ok. we agreed there is water sharing what you are saying you generate water and you don't need permission from us, for the longest river in the world, you do not need permission? of course you need. because we share the resource. of course we need permission, because we respect international law and the already standing treaties. that's what we're talking about. a neighborhood policy is needed. a guarantee is needed that those people of sudan and egypt will not go thirsty or will go poor because of ethiopia doesn't need the permission.

the word we don't need -- permission is totally contradicted to international law. we live in a world of cooperative, international societies going more and more towards cooperation because the world can't handle any more conflicts. i will not answer that question saying that egypt will resort to a military solution, even though i know that egyptians are all over their heads and that specific file. i can tell you that we are really very fed up with ethiopia restraining a binding agreement that gives us guarantee and gives us safety. mohammed: i'm sorry to interrupt, but we have run out of times or we are going to have to leave the conversation there. thank you so much to all of our guests. and thank you, too, for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website,

aljazeera.com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, that's facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on x. our handle is at aj inside story. for me, mohammed jamjoom, and the whole team here, bye for now. ♪