>> can an initiative by algeria and the crisis in niger? they are proposing a six-month transition period, while other countries are threatening to leaders with military intervention. how much leverage just algeria have to push this forward? this is "inside story". ♪ mohammed: welcome to the program. the political crisis in niger is

crowing into a problem for neighboring countries. among them, algeria. the coup has unleashed fears of fighting spilling over its borders and reinforcing armed groups. algeria is proposing a transitional government in niger to avoid military intervention by their neighbors. but leaders of the coup says their support is growing stronger and louder at home. will niger welcomed the plan and concessions force parties to the negotiating table? we will explore these issues and more in a moment. this report first. >> it has been five weeks since the president, bazoum was deposed. calls to b&c come have grown, as well as threats for a military intervention. algeria wants to avoid military action in neighboring niger and is proposing a plan for a transitional government.

[speaking another language] >> there must be participation and consent from all parties in niger, nobody should be silent. these arrangements should not exceed six months, this should happen under the supervision of the civil authority and by a mutually agreed figure. it must include the approval of the wider political spectrum as a way to restore order in the country. >> the general who led the coup wants a three-year period before -- the threats from the military intervention from ecowas has done little to deter him. despite a blockade and sanctions against niger, neither side has budged him a and neither wants to look weak. >> it is not in anybody's interest, certainly not in the interest of any african country in thisb bloc.

they do not have a choice. the junta has said they give it three years. all ecowas can do is negotiate a shorter timeline. >> despite support rallies at home,'s concerns are growing abroad. neighbors like algeria fear fighting in niger could spill over the border, threatening more instability in a humanitarian crisis. [speaking another language] >> sentience put in place by ecowas do not include an exception for humanitarian aid, there is no exception right now or a way to bring humanitarian aid into the country. >> fighting in niger could further destabilize the region and bolster armed groups linked to al qaeda and isil. as the political instability goes on, neighboring countries, including algeria hope the plumber's plans for military intervention. -- hope diplomacy plans for

mattel are -- military intervention. mohammed: let's bring in our guests, in london is alexis akwagyiram. in the capital of days you're a, is kabir adamu. and in france, we have jacques reland. a warm welcome to you all and thank you so much for joining us today on "inside story". from your vantage point, does this initiative by algeria to end the crisis in niger have a chance at succeeding? do you think the coup leaders in niger would welcome algeria's plan? kabir: thank you, from the side of ecowas, it appears that this is an opportunity.

since the july 26 coup, ecowas attempted to find a solution to restore democratic constitutional order in niger, it has failed. it is looking week. the last statement that came out of the chairman of the ecowas commission, indicated that they would not -- would contemplate a form of transition. if algeria is coming up with this shorter period, then the one that was put forward by the junta, it is likely that ecowas would listen to this. there are several determinants that would be a play. the position that the chairman of ecowas, the insistence on a military intervention, and the fact that the junta has

consistently not proven to be trustworthy in negotiations. all of these would determine what would happen to the algerian solution. mohammed: he was talking about ecowas, i want to ask you a similar question. from your perspective, how seriously will the algerian initiative be taken by ecowas? and how much weight does algeria carry? >> i think this will be taken seriously by ecowas, ultimately ecowas does not want to follow through on this suggestion of military intervention. and they do not want to seem weak, is a really awkward position. this offers an opportunity. it will be taken seriously because algeria shares a border with niger. this is algeria offering a

solution, and has a reason to care and follow through. that helped, because they can be a decent broker between the position of ecowas, and they do not seem to be aligned, but they do care. they have said repeatedly that it would not support any military intervention that it is in their best interest because they do not want this to escalate, any form of conflict, unnecessary action on their doorstep. mohammed: they were talking about how ecowas will react to this proposal by algeria. how likely is it that france would sign onto this initiative? jacques: i think france was supported. -- would you support it. the president of algeria,

despite of the conflict that they have, they get on well, they often speak. they already, in their last meeting, they talked about the role that algeria should play in stabilizing the situation. france thought in that case, algeria would be an honest broker because algeria has a big border with niger. and algeria does not want to have a war on its doorstep. there is already -- algeria is concerned about the trouble. they are very worried about -- don't forget they -- they are very sensitive to that issue. they think that a war in that

region would benefit only that group who would take advantage of the group -- the fact that the army and so on. they have already noticed that in countries like mali, the progress has been strong since the french have left. another point is that algeria has a very good relationship with russia, 90% of the military equipment in nigeria is from russia. they already think nigeria would be the ideal country to try to bring a solution and negotiate a solution. mohammed: if we are considering france's role in all of this going on, we have to mention that the coup leaders in niger

ecowas accused ecowas of being -- double that exclusion. kabir: with listening to reactions from civil society organizations, which includes the junta, most of them criticize the new development must suggesting that algeria is standing on the fence. algeria has maintained a neutral stance, it stated that it does respect democratic governance, and it is supportive of president bazoum. but eight has given leeway to the junta, to allow a transition. some are condemning this, they would have preferred a situation where algeria supports the junta

, especially with regards to their strong stance against france. this is the deciding element, most new syrians are united -- nigerians are united against france's colonial policies. that is a tricky line that algeria will have to play. ecowas to restore democracy and continue -- continue the coup wave that is going through west africa would be a difficult imbalance. algeria has all of the credentials to play that role. if it is supported by regional powers, the u.s., france, -- mohammed: the coup leaders have

called for a transitional period that lasts at most three years. i want to ask you, algeria's plan mentions a six-month transitional period. when it comes to that specific point of contention, would the coup leaders in niger agree to a shorter timeline when it comes to transition? >> i think it is possible that they would agree to it. the opening offer of three years is a negotiation position. they are looking at where they can start from and may be reduced from there. but they want to be as ambitious as possible. we should always keep sight of how this all started. this was an opportunistic coup whereby it appears that the head of the presidential guard was going to be pushed out. from there it has snowballed, but ultimately they want to find

some kind of middle ground. i do not think they will be ideologically prevent and believe they will have to push it through. at least they can find some forte of -- some form of compromise. these sanctions that are being imposed on niger will keep biting, it will not get easier. they will want to resolve this. niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. the price of goods is going up constantly. food inflation will go through the roof, it is already. and electricity has been shut down as well. that is going to increase the pressure on the junta, because over time, support for them will wane. it will want to wrap this up. that is why i don't think they will stick to three years, when they can compromise and move closer to six months being suggested by algeria. mohammed: i want to look at another complicating factor when it comes to france's role.

the coup leaders in niger gave france's ambassador to niger 48 hours to leave the country. but president macron announced that the ambassador will remain in this year. from your vantage point, in france, how much does not have the potential to make the situation worse? jacques: france has a wait-and-see attitude in that matter. they do not want to give in to the junta. they are capitalizing on the fact that maybe the population will begin to get worried about the impact of sanctions. because there is a humanitarian crisis developing there. there are sanctions, not everyone agrees on the way forward.

the fact that this coup was a big stretch, the situation in niger, with president bazoum was getting better. he was democratically elected. maybe the people in niger would ask, what is the junta bringing to the plate, what is it offering me? we do not see anything they could provide accept surfing on the populace anti-french feelings which has been very promoted by russia in the region. what are they giving? in a sense, they are giving that they have chosen. i thought maybe the junta would want a shorter transition period that is why i think they should agree on the six months, because

they are military appointed president, who is a reasonable person, well known in western circles. i think that responding to the demands, the reasonable proposal made by algeria would preserve it. otherwise i think we face a rebellion. you do not know him a niger is close, we do not know the feelings of the population exactly. we know what is happening in yemen. we do not know whether they are arriving on a wave of computer support, it is happening in a country, from where i sent, i cannot see. mohammed: it look like he wanted to jump in. i will give you that opportunity. alexis: i was just saying, yes,

it is clear that these sanctions are going to increasingly bite. at the moment, what the junta has done is they have ridden a wave of popular anti-french sentiment and anti-western sentiment. the window of opportunity is closing for them. with time, he sanctions will bite more and more. there is a danger that the people will turn on them. because life is getting hard. it is also clear that -- president bazoum was doing well when it came to fighting the islamist insurgents operating in the country. those insurgents that are loyal to al qaeda and also loyal to the islamic state. with time, the longer the junta stays in power and the more you see the sanctions, people's quality of living going down, and they have problems with the insurgents, it gets harder and

harder for the junta. we are seeing that with mali, they found it difficult to deal with their insurgencies. it is likely that the junta will take a leaf out of the book that has happened with mali and thing about how they can find a solution, some kind of path to accept a compromise. mohammed: both of them mentioned the anti-french sentiment. where was anti-french sentiment in niger before the coup compared to where it is now? jacques: it was palpable before the coup. i operate in niger, you could feel it. to correct a point, it is not specific to yemen, it is all over the country. it is the existence of the aborigine nigerians, the

deprivation that he or she go through. and the role of social media that has portrayed life in france, compared to life in niger. the contribution of the contribution of bad governance in niger and surrounding countries that may have impacted it. all of what the propaganda, misinformation pointed to was the rule of france, especially in its abstraction of minerals. it was palpable. what the junta did is they realized the enormity of that resentment and have been writing on it -- riding on it. that has been what has taken them. the unity it -- is the fact that the junta -- most nigerians are

not seeing it as an opportunistic coup, they are seeing it as fighting back france's postcolonial policy in niger. this is what the junta has tried to make sure they rally support around. there are pockets of resistance here and there, you are not hearing that. mohammed: let me follow up with you, you were talking about the junta in niger utilizing anti-french sentiment to their advantage. leaders of the coup also say their support is growing stronger at home. how much support do you figure they actually have in niger? where does public opinion stand? kabir: there are indicators that will tell us where we are. after the coup, and public spaces, the stadium, where protests were being held, you would see the stadium full.

but that stadium was not full on august 26, it is a refection of the effects on sanctions, the reality of their aborigines, the effect of sanctions and the inability of the junta to improve security. they were attacked by insurgent groups, and suddenly the nigerian lee terry has suffered. -- military has suffered. at the moment, there are several narratives that have come up. riding around the anti-french sentiment, but another group has asked, what has the junta brought? they did not bring forward any alternatives, especially in terms of how they intend to

manage better the resources that niger has. clearly, the support they generated at the beginning is waning. how far that will go and what pressure on them, only time will tell. mohammed: let me ask you about one more specific part of the initiative by algeria. they say they will also seek united nations conference to restore constitutional order, propose guarantees for all sides, and host a conference on development. is that something you can see happening going forward? jacques: that would be nice if it could happen. i do not know if it can be done with everyone. in this region, it has become a playground for the struggle between regional powers. all of africa is seen as a

treasure chest, everyone wants a piece of the action. all the world powers. could you have a conference where everybody comes to the table? with a genuine desire to solve the situation, i am not sure. the other dimension is the anti-west dimension. there is a challenge all over the world that we see, we saw the reaction of many african countries to the russian invasion of ukraine. you can see there is a growing challenge and the rest of the world, not just here in nine share -- niger. the fact that -- could they adopt well-meaning approaches? i am not too sure in the current climate, it seems like the role

of many powers seems to be to want to destabilize the sahara rather than stabilize it. mohammed: i want to ask you about how concerned algeria is about the potential of spillover for violence if a military confrontation takes place. how much could fighting in niger destabilize the region and how much might it bolster armed groups linked to al qaeda and isil? mohammed: it could massively destabilize the region, that is why algeria is taking this so serially. if there was any form of conflict or military intervention, the only beneficiaries would be the insurgents. already we have seen this in mali, burkina faso and niger. their armies already stretched.

there are internal issues around kidnap and ransom in the northwest. and with various other conflicts. if all of those armies were involved in some kind of a military intervention or conflict, the insurgencies will only get worse. algeria realizes this. they already have the bitter experience of seeing the spillover from libya. they know that no good ultimately will come of this, it will only destabilize the region, it won't make the region any more stable, that is why they are taking it seriously. mohammed: if we are talking about destabilization and spillover of violence, we must also mention the humanitarian aspect. from your vantage point, what kind of humanitarian crisis

might we see if fighting does break out in niger? kabir: the u.n. has spoken about that, about 2 million children would be at risk of starvation already. this is just because of the sanctions on niger by ecowas. if this degenerates into a war, you can imagine the impact it would have on the 25 million in niger. plus refugees from nigeria and neighboring countries. in spite of the circumstances in niger, have refugees from other countries coming in. clearly, the humanitarian consequence of a military intervention is going to be huge and a reason that is already suffering from different conflict.

mohammed: we have run out of time. thank you so much to all of our guests, alexis akwagyiram, kabir adamu and jacques reland. you can visit our website, aljazeera.com, go to our facebook page. you can also join the conversation on x, @ajinsidestory. goodbye for now. ♪

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